GAA Betting

ShamoBuc

Hulk Hands wrote: »

A better question is price a Dublin Mayo All Ireland final! Both teams are looking so very impressive

I wonder have Mayo peaked today for Donegal. Tyrone will be a different animal altogether. Cavanagh and O'Shea....should be some match up.

Hulk Hands

ShamoBuc wrote: »

I wonder have Mayo peaked today for Donegal. Tyrone will be a different animal altogether. Cavanagh and O'Shea....should be some match up.

To be honest I could see Mayo taking Tyrone apart. Probably 1/3 favourites for that match

Rightwing

Rightwing wrote: »

But that 1 will be a bridge too far imho. They should beat Laois, and I would say that's where their story will end.

And that's where the story ended. A horror story for them.

Mayo looked unbeatable today, I'd say they've played their best football however today, they will beat Tyrone, and lose the final to Dublin imo.

Rightwing

Mayo 2/7....Tyrone 3/1

Outright
Mayo 5/4
Dub 6/4
Kerry 5/1
Tyrone 9/1

Radonman

Radonman wrote: »

Mayo / Donegal game - D Vaughan anytime yellow @ 11/10, hes a cynical center back for Mayo and made a lot of money for me last year when his odds were nearly always 2/1 but they have noticed him now. Should be loads of yellows in this given the build up to the game so hopefully Vaughan will oblige.

Also taken Kerry exactly 1 goal @ 9/5

No Luck - With Mayo hammering Donegal the card bet was never on:(

Dots1982

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Kerry showed in the first half today and the first half of the munster final what they can do. They will relish playing the dubs and will put in extra effort for the 70mins- as they always do. I expect it to be a tight game, but 2/1 is very good value.
It's not that often you will get that price for a Kerry team.

Have Kerry ever being able to keep up with ultra intense teams such as this Dublin team?
The Kerry Forward line is in poor form. A lot of them appear to be living off their reputations.
Their main goal threat Gooch is too far from goal.

Personally I'll be lumping on a Mayo-Dublin double.

Dots1982

Apologies if anyone followed my tipping of Kildare minors. They conceded two goals in the opening minutes which killed off their chances.

Warper

Dublin look a great bet to beat Cork @ 1/1 but a better bet is ht-ft @ 5-2

Also in the pulling and dragging its evens for a Mayo/Dublin double in the semi's

Mountainlad

Not prepared to stick my neck out on the line and call Tipp and Clare in the 21s tomorrow, have had a pretty septic time calling Tipps u21s. Better team than I expected.

I do have a tip though, what I'm gonna take anyway. The overs/unders is set at 40.5 on Bet365, a point lower than Paddy Power. I went through statistics of overs coming from 2009 to present of games played at Minor/U21/Senior in Semple stadium and this is what I found:

Senior: 9/12 (40 points between Waterford and Clare on a dour bank holiday monday in 2010,
worst conditions I've ever seen 2009 Waterford v Limerick, and munster final replay 2010 in bad conditions again)

U21 6/6

Minor 4/9

Minor is the lowest of all the grades but that would be down to the lower skills levels and younger players. The quality of the teams tomorrow can be seen simply by the number of Senior panellists from both counties on show.

In both of Tipp's games so far this year it came in. It didn't in Clare's but that was a much smaller pitch with Waterford playing very negatively and sacrificing goal chances in order to stop Clare's forwards. The loss of Tony Kelly added into the equation, everything pointed towards a low score.

Both teams have strong forward lines and the open spaces will suit. Tipp have some superb backs and yet they have still managed to concede two goals in both their games, I see no reason why better forwards in Clare can't manage this.

Two warnings would be that both last year in the Munster u21 final and three years ago when the same teams met at minor they were quite low scoring contests, but both were played in Cusack Park.

The other is the weather, which nearly always seems to be what ruins the overs, and the forecast tomorrow is for some showers in Thurles though typically the following 5 days are to be dry. Will reassess that tomorrow but for now, my tip is Over 40.5 total points @ 5/6 (Bet 365)

Canyon86

the cork (evens) v dublin and kilkenny v waterford double looks tasty..


around 3/1?

anyone:)

Bookie Bashing

I'd like to give Powers a big pat on the back brilliant product offering for the match tonight they had player points and man of the match betting up since tuesday i don't think i have ever saw those markets offered before on Underage games? Somebody can let me if i'm wrong there i backed forde over 9.5 (6pts at HT) which is looking good at ht and Podge Collins over 1.5pts (1pt at HT) which is also odds on i would say to click

Mountainlad

One massive thing I forgot with the senior statistic was the 10 extra minutes of play, that said some of the wides coupled with a goal chance for Clare that I can't understand how it didnt go in, and the fact that Tip were denied a clear penalty have me really agitated. The ref gave Tipp a penalty that never was one at the end, but if hed given the earlier one Clare would have had to up it, and Tipp wouldn;t have been dropping balls in.

I know we all make arguments that suit us, but something has to be done with referees and added time. 1 minute in both halves is what the ref gave in both halves, even though there must have been 10 or more scoreable frees given. There's at least 20 seconds stoppage for each free, so how can it only be one minute? The game was completely stop start, frustrated to say the least.

Warper

Mountainlad wrote: »

One massive thing I forgot with the senior statistic was the 10 extra minutes of play, that said some of the wides coupled with a goal chance for Clare that I can't understand how it didnt go in, and the fact that Tip were denied a clear penalty have me really agitated. The ref gave Tipp a penalty that never was one at the end, but if hed given the earlier one Clare would have had to up it, and Tipp wouldn;t have been dropping balls in.

I know we all make arguments that suit us, but something has to be done with referees and added time. 1 minute in both halves is what the ref gave in both halves, even though there must have been 10 or more scoreable frees given. There's at least 20 seconds stoppage for each free, so how can it only be one minute? The game was completely stop start, frustrated to say the least.

What are you talking about, there is no injury time for taking frees? Hence its call injury time, otherwise we would have 10 mins injury time in every Dublin football match. I thought it was a very good game and to not know the game length is pretty silly to say the least.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Mountainlad wrote: »

One massive thing I forgot with the senior statistic was the 10 extra minutes of play, that said some of the wides coupled with a goal chance for Clare that I can't understand how it didnt go in, and the fact that Tip were denied a clear penalty have me really agitated. The ref gave Tipp a penalty that never was one at the end, but if hed given the earlier one Clare would have had to up it, and Tipp wouldn;t have been dropping balls in.

I know we all make arguments that suit us, but something has to be done with referees and added time. 1 minute in both halves is what the ref gave in both halves, even though there must have been 10 or more scoreable frees given. There's at least 20 seconds stoppage for each free, so how can it only be one minute? The game was completely stop start, frustrated to say the least.

time to take frees is not stoppage time. Injuries/subs and i think occasionally they will add on time for time wasting by goalkeepers but thats about it

Mountainlad

Warper wrote: »

What are you talking about, there is no injury time for taking frees? Hence its call injury time, otherwise we would have 10 mins injury time in every Dublin football match. I thought it was a very good game and to not know the game length is pretty silly to say the least.

Is it not stoppage time? As in every time the play stops.

Was a mistake I made, and a big one, that said 6/6 times in u21 matches in Semple Stadium since 2009 the overs had come off. Tipp were pretty shocking.

Rightwing

Mountainlad wrote: »

One massive thing I forgot with the senior statistic was the 10 extra minutes of play, that said some of the wides coupled with a goal chance for Clare that I can't understand how it didnt go in, and the fact that Tip were denied a clear penalty have me really agitated. The ref gave Tipp a penalty that never was one at the end, but if hed given the earlier one Clare would have had to up it, and Tipp wouldn;t have been dropping balls in.

I know we all make arguments that suit us, but something has to be done with referees and added time. 1 minute in both halves is what the ref gave in both halves, even though there must have been 10 or more scoreable frees given. There's at least 20 seconds stoppage for each free, so how can it only be one minute? The game was completely stop start, frustrated to say the least.

I nearly took up that bet, and it was looking very good at 1 stage in the 1st half. Hard luck.

ShamoBuc

Rightwing wrote: »

I nearly took up that bet, and it was looking very good at 1 stage in the 1st half. Hard luck.

I took up that bet, it was a good one. I cannot believe Tip were that crap.

Rightwing

ShamoBuc wrote: »

I took up that bet, it was a good one. I cannot believe Tip were that crap.

I fancied Tipp for it :mad:.

At 1 point the odds were 43.5 @ 5/6. Often no harm to hedge a position.

KevIRL

Waterford minors are 5/6 with PP to score over 1.5 goals.

They have played 6 games in this years championship and have failed to hit this target only once - in their first game v Tipp. In total over the 6 games they have scored 18 goals and absolutely love raising that green flag.

Scoring record to date

v Tipp 1-15
v Clare 4-18
v Cork 3-19
v Limerick 2-19
v Limerick 4-8 (replay)
v Antrim 4-20

Rightwing

KevIRL wrote: »

Waterford minors are 5/6 with PP to score over 1.5 goals.

They have played 6 games in this years championship and have failed to hit this target only once - in their first game v Tipp. In total over the 6 games they have scored 18 goals and absolutely love raising that green flag.

Scoring record to date

v Tipp 1-15
v Clare 4-18
v Cork 3-19
v Limerick 2-19
v Limerick 4-8 (replay)
v Antrim 4-20

Half the bet looks very good,,,,the other half,,KK's defense,,,what's that like?

KevIRL

Rightwing wrote: »

Half the bet looks very good,,,,the other half,,KK's defense,,,what's that like?

Tighter but the opposition hasnt exactly been startling and they've still conceeded a few

v Laois 1-9
v Wexford 3-7
v Kildare 1-9
v Dublin 2-7
v Laois 0-8

Mountainlad

Rightwing wrote: »

Half the bet looks very good,,,,the other half,,KK's defense,,,what's that like?

They've conceded goals in every game bar the Leinster final v Laois. There other games were:

1 goal conceded v Laois 1st round
3 goals conceded (at home) v Wexford 2nd round
1 goal conceded v Kildare losers round
2 goals conceded v Dublin semi final

So it's come in in 2/5, but you only need one more goal in to of the other 3 games and Waterford definitely have the most potent attack in the Minor championship this year. Think it's a great spot, especially in a pitch like Croke Park.

Rightwing

Thanks lads, I'll take that bet up, I'll put €240 on it.

Mountainlad

Does anyone know do bet 365 do markets on Minor matches? They had them for the U21 hurling alright, but there's nothing up on this yet so I kind of doubt it at the minute.

keane2097

In case anyone is waiting for a look at the old Proper Punter this week, most of the credit is due to Kev as he's a lot sharper on hurling than I would be...

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-back-to-the-grind/

Mountainlad

Mountainlad wrote: »

Healthy debate here. Heard of arbitrage but never seen it there before, just thought I'd share it with you and let people decide themselves. Good to see the warnings being offered all the same.

Have a half season bet tip here. Looking at the hurling championship, I see that Galway are as short as 3/1 to win the all-ireland. Think they have a very good chance but given the championship we've had so far it is too short to me for them to win three games. I think it will get shorter after the weekend though as I am pretty sure they will beat Dublin.

So the next thing I'd be looking at is Joe Canning as player of the year. Again, unfortuantely 4/1 is too short to me much like the 7/1 they were offering before the championship also seemed a bit short. Of course if Galway do win the all-ireland, I'd say this is an absolute cert as the media love him so if you were planning on backing them to win the all-ireland I'd nearly just back this instead.


So the last thing, and most interesting one for me is the top scorer bet, This is how it currently stands:


Jack Guiney (Wexford) 1-32
Maurice Shanahan (Waterford) 1-29
Eoin Larkin (Kilkenny) 0-29
Paul Ryan (Dublin) 1-19
Joey Boland (Dublin) 0-18
Colin Ryan (Clare) 0-09

Skipped a couple in the middle but they were all for teams that are now out. Joey Boland is not a contender, and even if Clare were to get to the all-ireland final (don't see it) Colin Ryan would be doing well to claim it. So here's my write up on the others:

Eoin Larkin:
0-29 in 3 games (average of 9.66)

Ruled out on account of Tipp potentially winning and Henry Shefflin.

Paul Ryan:

Not likely as Dublin aren't big scorers and they should lose the next game. Has played 3 games and scored 1-19 (avg of 7.66)
If he plays the next two games with that avg then he will have 37 total points.

Jack Guiney:

Only guaranteed one game. Has scored 1-32 in 4 games (avg of 8.75). Scored 0-8 v Antrim, 11 v Carlow.
Avg of 08 in both Dublin games, most scored in first at home. Good player, probably won't see much of it from play though. Likely that Wexford will at least push the next team they play so he should get a decent score in that game. 8 points the next day would be 43 overall.

Maurice Shanahan:

Only guaranteed one game and will not be favourites. Having a good summer but against some poor teams. Has scored 1-29,
0-13 against Offaly and 1-9 v Westmeath. Avg in 3 games=10.66
Has hit an impressive 1-13 from play in last two games and was lively v Clare. Likely to get around 0-8 points the next day bringing his tally to 40 points.

Joe Canning:

Potentially the value bet. 0-11 in 1 game v Laois. Will face a defensive setup v Dublin but lethal. Galway can put up big scores, Galway have two games left at least.
Should they play 3 that avg would take him to 0-44. Last year his average was 0-11 over the course of the season.


So to sum that up then I actually think Canning is in the drivers seat here, though I am second guessing the championship which has been pretty unpredictable thus far. He can put up scores higher than 0-11 and it might just happen this Sunday. Biggest threats to me are Guiney and Shanahan because if one of their respective teams win their next game, with the extra game it's a sure thing that one of them will finish as top scorer. Reckon that Wexford are more likely to beat Clare (assuming they beat Laois) than Waterford to beat Tipp/Kilkenny.

I think Kilkenny will be beaten, many people don't feel that way of course but that's just how I see it.

In summary this is how I would look at the betting for it:

1. Joe Canning 8/1 (Paddy Power)
2. Jack Guiney 5/1 (PP, Boylesports and Bet 365)
3. Maurice Shanahn 5/1 (PP and Bet 365)

Don't think there is value in the other two (Paul Ryan and Larkin). A lot of money is going on Tipp to win the all-ireland, to do so they would play 5 games. Eoin Kelly will be there no1 free taker from now on but even at 33/1 I don't think he's a bet as they have a lot to do to get that far and he won't finish out the games.

Fairly sure when I posted this Paul Ryan was at 3/1. He can be got at 5/2 at the minute. At the time he was averaging about 8 points per game, and I can't see how he could have been anticipated to score 2-7 in the Leinster Final.

Supposing Dublin win, he just needs 0-16 points between two games which matches his average score to surpass Larkin. If he got a goal in either game he would definitely hit that. Then, he has 5 points to make up on Colin Ryan who is the favourite.

The way I see it Dublin are more likely to be in the final than Clare. I would fancy Dublin to beat them if they both did end up in the final. I reckon there must be some value on Paul Ryan considering Colin Ryan is best priced at 5/4 when he was 12/1 at the time of my original post. Other than Clare getting further than anticipated, not much has changed really. So I don't see how Paul Ryan can have drifted. Just something I thought might interest the value punters.

Would love feedback on that as well, because I'm really a novice when it comes to gambling.

Radonman

Dublin v Cork - just can't get away from the goals bet in this game, benn thinking about this game for a while and was going to have no bet on this but here goes Cork have played 3 game and no goals scored and none conceded, Dublinhave played 5 and there have been 9 goals - this figure is skewed due to the 4 goals in the Galway game, taking it out its 5 goals in 4 games. So Cork are not scoring goals and have possibly the best keeper in the country in Nash therefore I'm trying the unders . Under 0.5 @ 11/1, under 1.5 @ 10/3 obviously not massive bets but gonna have a nice sum on under 2.5 @ 21/20

finky1

back him tomorrow 8pts or more + double up in final i say you will get more if you win i . its even money game and dublin might lose and you still might win tomorrow without dublin getting to the final:D

finky1

is this a good bet paul ryan over 2.5 pts from play 1.9

KevIRL

Radonman wrote: »

Dublin v Cork - just can't get away from the goals bet in this game, benn thinking about this game for a while and was going to have no bet on this but here goes Cork have played 3 game and no goals scored and none conceded, Dublinhave played 5 and there have been 9 goals - this figure is skewed due to the 4 goals in the Galway game, taking it out its 5 goals in 4 games. So Cork are not scoring goals and have possibly the best keeper in the country in Nash therefore I'm trying the unders . Under 0.5 @ 11/1, under 1.5 @ 10/3 obviously not massive bets but gonna have a nice sum on under 2.5 @ 21/20

I like this too Radonman. Although instead of under 0.5 go with no goalscorer at the same odds with PP. They have a money back special if Horgan gets the first score on losing goalscorer bets