Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

Fr Tierney

A man after my own heart. I done them at minus 3.5 @ 1/1. Really hoping the the Colts get their season back on track with a win tonight.

Not only do they have to win, but to show any "superbowl" potential, they will have to win well and that means no more bloody interceptions from Mr Manning. I havent made my mind up whether to stay up and watch it or enjoy a goods night sleep:D.

Peyton Manning

I suppose Superbowl potential is another reason I should have mentioned too, good point! A loss tonight, combined with what you would expect to be a Jaguars win at the weekend would leave them 2 games behind the Jags, with the Jags already having beaten them once. It would make it very difficult for them to get to the playoffs considering the wildcards look like going to the runners-up of the AFC East and North. God, the Jaguars being realistic contenders to top the AFC South. I would have bet any sum of money against that at the start of the year!

Peyton Manning

Agonising

stingerro

Don't follow NFL closely enough, so I have no idea what happened in the end, but there was a huge amount of bets on Colts winning -3 and there are riots going on a few betting forums I visit . Great result for the bookies and not bad for me, as without any specific reason I decided to go for simple Colts winning and combining it with Mavericks HT/FT against Nets.

Fr Tierney

Gutted. :mad:
But at least my team are back.

Archie, just because you lost that one, keep them coming.

Peyton Manning

Cheers man. Those last minute backdoor covers suck, especially this one where a field goal with 30 seconds remaining would have been the most logical thing to do.

This weekend I like the following:

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-9) (Assuming Cassel doesn't play)
Miami Dolphins (+5) @ New York Jets
St. Louis Rams (+9) @ New Orleans Saints

Will try and post up some write ups later, just watching the football at the moment.

Peyton Manning

I also like the Patriots -3 tonight. Im looking at the conditions at Soldier Field, and I see windy blizzard conditions. Good news for Pats fans, as the Pats are 9-0 in snow games under Belichick and it's something Brady takes in his stride. The Pats are used to these conditions, and with the form they're in I fancy them to win by about a field goal, so the minimum I expect is at least a push.

stingerro

Big thanks for your tips once again, used Patriors and Chargers as a part of my winning last night's treble (which included OKC as well, as I am continuing playing against Cavaliers since their loss against Heat).

I had ML parlay as well, but Greeen Bay let me down; read that they were struggling after their quarterback got injured in 2nd quarter against Detroit with his back up passing to everyone, bar his running backs. :mad:

Peyton Manning

stingerro wrote: »

Big thanks for your tips once again, used Patriors and Chargers as a part of my winning last night's treble (which included OKC as well, as I am continuing playing against Cavaliers since their loss against Heat).

I had ML parlay as well, but Greeen Bay let me down; read that they were struggling after their quarterback got injured in 2nd quarter against Detroit with his back up passing to everyone, bar his running backs. :mad:

Glad to hear it man! That Green Bay result was painful, you just can't account for quarterbacks getting knocked out of games like that.

I hope Rodgers misses next week now for two reasons. First, obviously it will be good news for my Patriots if he's out. Second, it stops me having to make a tough call. He would be the underdog, and I've always said I love betting on the big 6 (Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger) as underdogs on big televised games. But given the form the Patriots are in, I just couldn't bet against them.

stingerro

Any opinion on Ravens chances today, as I see some other good tipsters going with them?

Peyton Manning

stingerro wrote: »

Any opinion on Ravens chances today, as I see some other good tipsters going with them?

I'd actually lean more towards the Texans +3 myself tbh. I don't know how up for this the Ravens will be. The Steelers have the AFC North pretty much sewn up, and it would take a mighty collapse for the Ravens not to get the wildcard given the way things have played out so far, so there might be a lack of motivation for them there. They could also be looking ahead to a big game against the Saints next week, so perhaps they could overlook the Texans. Plus, I generally don't like betting against home teams on Monday Night Football, so a combination of a few mental factors I use to decide games has me leaning towards the Texans. Still, the fact that their secondary is horrible and Joe Flacco is due a big performance would hold me back from placing a big bet. A small play on the Texans would be all I would risk, but if I was still doing my log, I'd leave this game alone.

stingerro

Tom_Brady wrote: »

I'd actually lean more towards the Texans +3 myself tbh. I don't know how up for this the Ravens will be. The Steelers have the AFC North pretty much sewn up, and it would take a mighty collapse for the Ravens not to get the wildcard given the way things have played out so far, so there might be a lack of motivation for them there. They could also be looking ahead to a big game against the Saints next week, so perhaps they could overlook the Texans. Plus, I generally don't like betting against home teams on Monday Night Football, so a combination of a few mental factors I use to decide games has me leaning towards the Texans. Still, the fact that their secondary is horrible and Joe Flacco is due a big performance would hold me back from placing a big bet. A small play on the Texans would be all I would risk, but if I was still doing my log, I'd leave this game alone.

thanks, I will stay away from it then.

Peyton Manning

Haven't looked at this weekend's fixtures in too much detail yet, but straight away what pops out is:

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Of course those that follow this thread know why, and that is one of the NFL's elite QBs as underdog in a big game. It's not a divisional rivalry, and its not a SNF/MNF game, but it's a very important game for two teams with faint hopes of clinching the top spot in their division and wanting to make sure of a wildcard spot. Drew Brees as an underdog? Sign me up. I'll post more later in the week.

Peyton Manning

For tonight, I think the Chargers will crush the 49ers. Having shut out the Chiefs last week, the Chargers have a good shot at topping the division now and can pile on the pressure with the early game, and sit back and watch the Chiefs visit a tricky Rams side on Sunday. I don't think the 49ers will have been able to do enough in the short week, and road games on a Thursday are always very difficult. Home field advantage plus that nationally televised game buzz - oh, and Philip Rivers of course - mean I think the Chargers cover easily here.

San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers (-8.5)

Edit: Of course today is Wednesday, not Thursday. I'm an idiot

Fr Tierney

Hope your right on this. Gonna follow you again. Would be a lot happier if the 49ers hadnt put up 40 points against a divisional rival last week thou (even if it was Seattle:D. Also have done the Chiefs to win the division and while it may not be the only division to let me down, it was one of my certs.

Its got to the stage of the season thou, where you have to really watch the matchups and spreads. You never know if a team will bench most of their starters/first team safe in the knowledge they are in the playoffs. Does not apply in this case, but will apply to some games from this weekend on.

Keep up the good work and keep them coming.:)

Peyton Manning

Cover easily indeed. Never in doubt

Fr Tierney

Fair play to you. I wouldnt have touched this game if you hadnt put it up here. As I said earlier, I would have been much happier if the 49ers hadnt put up 40 points last week. But credit is due here, keep em coming. I will be watching out for them.

Peyton Manning

No worries man. Here's what I like on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals

It boggles the mind that the Bengals are favourites here. They've lost 10 in a row, and apart from a plucky low scoring win over the Ravens, the only other team they've beat this year is a terrible Carolina Panthers. The Browns beat them earlier in the year, and that was when Carson Palmer was putting up decent numbers. He's completely spent now and his career as a starter is on it's last legs. With Colt McCoy confirmed starter, I'm confident he'll manage this game efficiently, make the plays when he has to, and hand it off to Peyton Hillis to stomp all over the Bengals. I've said before that similar teams in division rivalries should always have a spread of 3, well these teams aren't similar. The Browns are a much better team.

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are awful, awful, awful. Let's look at the margins they've lost 12 games by this year with the latest first - 21, 16, 1, 24, 15, 31, 10, 17, 2, 13, 13 and 13. Two close calls aside, they are losing games in spectacular fashion. I actually trust Arizona more with John Skelton starting than I do Derek Anderson or Max Hall. Skelton will manage the game, handing it off to Tim Hightower who should have a monster week. He also has a big arm, which Larry Fitzgerald will be relieved to see having had to work with Anderson and Hall on and off this year. To put it simply, the Panthers should not be favourite against any team in the NFL. They are the worst side by a country mile and the Cardinals should win this easily.

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Of course those that follow this thread know why Im picking this, and that is one of the NFL's elite QBs as underdog in a big game. It's a system I just love. It's not a divisional rivalry, and its not a SNF/MNF game, but it's a very important game for two teams with faint hopes of clinching the top spot in their division and wanting to make sure of a wildcard spot. Drew Brees as an underdog? Sign me up. The Saints are on a roll right now, and should overcome a Ravens team that have been more inconsistent than their record suggests. The Saints will put pressure on Joe Flacco and Joe Cool hasn't looked as cool when under pressure this year. They also do well against the run which should remove Ray Rice from the equation.

Peyton Manning

Uh yeah, scratch that :pac:

darsar

So frustrating today's games! It is amazing how close in the points scoring the bookies can be.

Went with a double of NO Saints win(59/50) & Detroit game to be under 43.5 ( finished 23-20).

Single of Jets @ Pitt to be over 39.5pts. 8 mins on the clock and all I need is 3pts and of course the safety comes then for only two points and lose spread by .5! Very accurate

NaiveMelodies

Any opinions on the Pats match, spread is -14? Rodgers out for Green Bay but not sure if its enough for the Pats to completely hammer them?

Peyton Manning

only1stevo wrote: »

Any opinions on the Pats match, spread is -14? Rodgers out for Green Bay but not sure if its enough for the Pats to completely hammer them?

I'd avoid it. Usually I'd prefer the Packers to cover such a spread despite Rodgers being out, but such is the Pats dominance lately that it's up in the air. I really wouldn't know which way to lean.

NaiveMelodies

Tom_Brady wrote: »

I'd avoid it. Usually I'd prefer the Packers to cover such a spread despite Rodgers being out, but such is the Pats dominance lately that it's up in the air. I really wouldn't know which way to lean.

Cheers, put 25 down anyway before i read this!

Fr Tierney

Looks like the snow will play a big part in tonights game, and Favre possibly to start. Fancy the Vikes if he does.

darsar

Double post, sorry

darsar

Getting decent price on over 33.5pts. What you think Fr Tierney?!

When will it be confirmed if Favre is a starter?

Fr Tierney

I'm sure they will decide shortly. They will wait and see how he gets on in the warm up. I'm sure he will want to play as there are only 3 games left in his career and this is one of them.
As for the unders/overs, I never do them, but if I was in this game it would be the unders, purely because of the conditions, but remember what the Patriots did in the snow last weekend:rolleyes:. Archie/Tom would be better placed to advise you on this.

Decision due on whether Favre starts or not at 12.05

Peyton Manning

Fr Tierney wrote: »

Archie/Tom would be better placed to advise you on this.

Not after the weekend I've had!

I'd be leaning towards Vikings +6.5, regardless of whether Favre starts or not (obviously him starting is better, as he's better than Webb and is well used to these types of conditions). I'd also lean towards the overs rather than the unders at 33.5. That's just me, and neither would be high confidence bets.

darsar

I went overs thinking the weather may cause lapses in defence. And in hope of a good scoring game!

Favre confirmed there now. Anybody know if there is a rule like soccer were starting teamsheets have to an hour before KO or is this irrelevant as it's roll on roll of anyway?

darsar

Looking at the weekend so far Tom, 2 from 15 games were under 33.5pts so it's a high scoring weekend so far. I know each game is it's own but weather is really turning and it's getting down ti business on the field.

I also took Vikes plus 7.5pts earlier today so I'm hoping for a good start for Vikes.