Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

Fr Tierney

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Not after the weekend I've had!

Dont be too harsh on yourself. Thats the first losing weekend I've had since I started following your bets.

I'd be leaning towards Vikings +6.5, regardless of whether Favre starts or not (obviously him starting is better, as he's better than Webb and is well used to these types of conditions). I'd also lean towards the overs rather than the unders at 33.5. That's just me, and neither would be high confidence bets.

I already have the Vikes done at +6.5. Purely outta frustration, as I picked the Packers to win this division in a 8 division acc just 4 weeks ago.:mad:. Bears win the division if they win tonight:(

Peyton Manning

Well I've just seen that Peterson is out which is a big loss. I'd still lean towards the Vikes, but it would only really be a 1pt bet, if even that.

coughlan08

what do you make of
Toby Gerhart (2.3),Matt Forte(1.75) chances of getting a touchdown tonight..
thanks

Peyton Manning

coughlan08 wrote: »

what do you make of
Toby Gerhart (2.3),Matt Forte(1.75) chances of getting a touchdown tonight..
thanks

I'd fancy both to pick up a score tbh. Forte is a huge part of the Bears offence, and he'll see a lot of work both carrying and receiving tonight given the weather. Gerhart will get a lot of carries with Peterson out, and the Vikings have given up 115 rushing yards the past 2 weeks. He's also a nifty dual threat. There could be a lot of check downs tonight so I'd fancy both to see a lot of work receiving the ball than usual.

coughlan08

thanks fot that,il take it so,keep me up for the night if nothing else....:p

RichieD

What do we think of Ravens(-3) vs Browns this weekend ?

Mossyman

How would you rate Atl (-2.5) against NO on Monday? I got an email giving me a tip:

"The Falcons passed their grueling road tests (3 straight games) and now return home to a place that they have not lost this season. In fact, Matt Ryan has lost just one game at home when he has started in his entire three-year career. The Falcons still have a little work left and thus they will not take this game lightly, as a win in this game will clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Saints have played better of late, winning six of their last seven games, but they have played a bunch of bad teams during this streak. The two good teams that they have played, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, they went 1-1.The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. ATLANTA FALCONS 27, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 21"

Would you go along with this?

Peyton Manning

Mossyman wrote: »

How would you rate Atl (-2.5) against NO on Monday? I got an email giving me a tip:

"The Falcons passed their grueling road tests (3 straight games) and now return home to a place that they have not lost this season. In fact, Matt Ryan has lost just one game at home when he has started in his entire three-year career. The Falcons still have a little work left and thus they will not take this game lightly, as a win in this game will clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Saints have played better of late, winning six of their last seven games, but they have played a bunch of bad teams during this streak. The two good teams that they have played, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, they went 1-1.The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. ATLANTA FALCONS 27, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 21"

Would you go along with this?

I'm leaning more towards the Saints to be honest, as it goes with my habit of backing one of the elite six (Brees) as an underdog in a big game and that system always does very well for me given the circumstances. It's a huge statement game for the Falcons, but their secondary lets them down here and I can see Brees shredding them on Monday. I also think that Roddy White's comments midweek will have mightily pissed off the Saints and I can see them being even more pumped up as a result, something defending SuperBowl champions often need.

Mossyman

Cheers thanks for that Tom, should make for a good game anyways regardless!

Peyton Manning

Mossyman wrote: »

Cheers thanks for that Tom, should make for a good game anyways regardless!

Yup, either way I'd avoid betting a whole heap on it! See how the rest of your weekend goes first

Peyton Manning

For today's games I like the following doubles:

San Diego Chargers (-8) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (-14)

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Washington Redskins (+7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
New York Giants (+3) @ Green Bay Packers

Nuri Sahin

Heya Archi, just curious as to what your success rate is currently as I've kinda lost track of your bets over the past couple of months?

Peyton Manning

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

Heya Archi, just curious as to what your success rate is currently as I've kinda lost track of your bets over the past couple of months?

I'm not placing any bets myself, I stopped a few weeks ago so I've stopped keeping track too. I post up a few tips every weekend cos a few posters have asked me to! Since I've stopped logging though I'd guess I'm about 60-66% strike rate, although a lot of that is due to one weekened where I went 6/6!

Headshot

Hey Tom would you be confident enough about the Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)?

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

Hey Tom would you be confident enough about the Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)?

Pretty confident alright. The only thing the Seahawks have going for them at the moment is a great atmosphere when they're at home, but obviously they're on the road this week so that gets nullified. Matt Hasselbeck is turning the ball over like there's no tomorrow - he really is finished as the Seahawks QB. I still think he could be a serviceable player in this league, but he gets so little protection that he actually looks like he's genuinely terrified to take one more big hit that could finish his career. He just slings it out of there at any opportunity. You'll also find a huge correlation between teams turning the ball over and losing. They'll also be pretty beat after giving it their all against the Falcons last week, but that one got away from them when Hasselbeck threw 2 picks (he actually got pulled from the game, so if Whitehurst starts instead tonight, we're laughing - he's hopeless). They've also had to travel on the back of that defeat, it's a long treck so I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with an exciting host of Bucs youngsters. If I was using my old scale of 1 - 5 units, this would be a 3 unit selection, verging on 3.5 depending what mood I'm in :pac:

Headshot

I went for it Tom

thanks for that, ill hunt you down if it goes badly thou

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

I went for it Tom

thanks for that, ill hunt you down if it goes badly thou

No pressure then! :pac:

That Lions/Redskins double came in, so anybody who took the above bets will see a profit regardless of what happens in the final 4 games

Headshot

any stream to the bucs match ?

edit

ugh

im tracking you down as we speak

Peyton Manning

http://atdhe.net/31401/watch-seattle-seahawks-vs-tampa-bay-buccaneers

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

any stream to the bucs match ?

edit

ugh

im tracking you down as we speak

Giving up after half a quarter?

You don't watch this sport much, do you

Headshot

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Giving up after half a quarter?

You don't watch this sport much, do you

nope I dont know how anyone would tbh

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

nope I dont know how anyone would tbh

Well this is my favourite sport on the planet, I like this as much as you like soccer, so you know, differnet strokes for differnet folks! :pac:

Charlie Whitehurst is now in the game for Seattle, which is good news for us.

Juwwi

The New york Giants are +13 (incl/cap draw) at 10/11 in running

Would you think thats a good bet ? or have the bookies got it right.
lm thinking they will come back into it some stage.

Peyton Manning

robbie1977 wrote: »

The New york Giants are +13 (incl/cap draw) at 10/11 in running

Would you think thats a good bet ? or have the bookies got it right.
lm thinking they will come back into it some stage.

Well I'm still hoping for the +3 But yeah, I like +13, the Giants will come into this at some stage.

Juwwi

Thanks missed the +13 but got +11 just a second after GB didnt complete
the 3rd down there but cant complain as l was looking to back the +3 before the start and laptop froze so l suppose lm in a no lose situation realy.

Tampa Bay are back at -6.5 in running now

jodaw

Well i have found this thread very interesting and well done on your picks Archie. Even though the new approach of doubles seems to be bringing profits i like the older approach.

It is a shame that you no longer have the enthusiasm to do detailed write up.

Anyways as for everything is this Gambling lark it is always better to rely on your own skills and never take information from anyone else. But your thread has inspired to look more into NFL gambling.

I have always done pretty well at it myself but rather an ad-hoc approach to it.

I was thinking next season I may give it a shot for the whole of the season with the goal of trying to double my bank over the season.

e.g. Bank 1000 maybe 20 points with the aim to reach 2000 by season end. All single bets and all even weighted single points.

Anyways i went throught the card myself to weigh my opinion against the market makers. For anyone that is interested below are what i picked out earlier.

Dallas v Arizone - Arizona (+7)10/11 strength 4/10 W
Detroit V Miami - Miami (-3.5) 10/11 strength 5/10 L
Redskin V Jaguars - Redskins (+6.5) 10/11 Strength 5/10 W
49ers v rams - rams (-2.5) 10/11 Strength 7/10 W
Pats V Bills - Pats (-7.5) 10/11 Strength 6/10 W
Ravens V Browns - Ravens (-3.5) 20/21 Strength 7/10 W
Titans v Chiefs - Chiefs (-5) 10/11 Strength 3 W
Colts V Raiders - Raiders (scr) 5/6 Strength 7
Texans V Broncos - Broncos (+2.5) 1/1 Strength 4
Chargers V Bengals - bengals (+7.5) 10/11 Strength 5
Giants V Packers - Giants (+3) 20/23 Stregth 6
Seahawls V Buccs -Seahawks (+6) 10/11 Strength 7
Viks V Eagles - Viks (+14) 20/21 Strenght 6
Saints V Falcons - Falcon (-2.5) 10/11 Strength 8

4 Top picks
49ers v rams - rams (-2.5) 10/11 Strength 7/10 W
Seahawls V Buccs -Seahawks (+6) 10/11 Strength 7
Saints V Falcons - Falcon (-2.5) 10/11 Strength 8
Viks V Eagles - Viks (+14) 20/21 Strenght 6

So far i am 6-1 on the week.

I did not expect that. Maybe it is just beginners luck.

Anyone good luck with your picks this week and i will maybe compare my own selections against your selections.

Headshot

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Well this is my favourite sport on the planet, I like this as much as you like soccer, so you know, differnet strokes for differnet folks! :pac:

Charlie Whitehurst is now in the game for Seattle, which is good news for us.

it takes different strokes to move the world

jive

just started backing NFL myself. Not the biggest fan but some games are pretty good (e.g. last night cardinals and cowboys). Have kept an eye on the results and stuff over the last few weeks and read previews for the games to try scope out key players and home form / away form and the likes so i wasnt going into it blindly. Had the cowboys +5 in play(10/11), rams -1 in play(11/10 or 10/11 not sure), raiders to win(11/10), seahawks and buccaneers under 43.5 (10/11).

cowboys bet won (they lost by 1 however), rams bet won (they won by 8) and the seahawks + buccaneers looks to be coming in fairly soon. raiders are currently down by one so fingers crossed. with my limited knowledge i have ofc been keeping an eye on your selections... hence why im posting this :P I think there may be money to be made on the NFL! I hope! But like the lad above said... maybe just beginners luck!

Peyton Manning

Some serious after timing going on in here!

jodaw

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Some serious after timing going on in here!

does it count as after timing if you dont bet and dont win anything?