Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

homolumo · 09-01-2011 10:44pm

C'mon Green Bay. Backed Philadelphia to win by 1-6 as cover.

SirDelboy18 · 10-01-2011 12:40am

If you were to stick your neck out and pick a team to win outright, who would you go for?

Peyton Manning · 10-01-2011 12:48am

SirDelboy18 wrote: »

If you were to stick your neck out and pick a team to win outright, who would you go for?

Right now? Hard not to pick the Packers based on what we've seen so far.

Peyton Manning · 10-01-2011 1:44am

Tom_Brady wrote: »

It's the playoffs, so I'm gonna start betting on every game in the playoffs just to maximise excitement and interest. It's been a great season and it promises to be a dramatic post season, so I dont really need to, but feck it, I'm a sucker for big occasions! This weekend I'm going for the following.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (+10.5)

I know the Seahawks suck, but we're blessed that it's Matt Hasselbeck starting and not Charlie Whitehurst. That should shave a good 2 - 3 points off the spread imo. Not that Hasselbeck is a stud anymore, but I can see the Seattle faithful rallying behind their team more with him under centre. I just think it's a very high spread considering how tough a place Seattle is to visit. You know what else? I fancy a bit of an upset here, and if the spread was even +7.5 I'd still go for it. The Saints are heavy favourites, so I guess Im hoping that the Seahawks can run them close, or come up with a poxy backdoor cover!

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs

I really like the Ravens here. The Chiefs are, well, I wouldn't say a fraud playoff team, but they're definitely the weakest outside of Seattle. They haven't beaten any other of the playoff teams during the regular season, and they lost 4 of their 6 divisional games. Looking at their schedule this year, and I don't see a good team they've beaten apart from the Chargers, but they sucked this year and made an even slower start than they always do (that game was in Week 1). The only decent quarterbacks they came up against after that were Schaub, Manning and Rivers (again) and they lost all three. The rest of the teams they faced were pretty bad. Looking at their schedule, something else also pops up. Apart from the Chargers in Week 1 and the Rams in Week 15, every other team they've beat have bounced between QBs this year. I just dont think they've been tested, and a team as solid and talented as the Ravens - who trounced the Patriots on the road at the same stage last year - should win comfortably here. This is my favourite play this week.

New York Jets (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

I don't trust either team so this isn't a huge play, but I just have a gut feeling we're destined for another Jets - Patriots game. When your biggest factor for a bet is a gut feeling, it can never be a huge play! Manning had his way with the Jets last year, so Im sure Rex Ryan will unleash something new on him. It's important that Ryan mixes things up and keeps Manning on edge, it's going to be a fascinating game, I think the Jets defence and the Colts offence are equally as good (and equally as underperforming) so it will come down to the Jets offence versus the Colts defence, and Im giving the edge to the Jets. Just a gut feeling!

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Aaron Rodgers is an underdog, where do I sign up? I trust him Rodgers immensely. I trust the Packers defence more, and I can see them getting lots of pressure on Mike Vick. Clay Matthews could have a huge game, and Vick was turning the ball over more towards the end of the season so if his ball security isn't tremendously safe, this game could be win on defence for the Packers. I just trust their pass rush, and I think Williams and Woodson in the secondary are a great security against Vick's big plays. But again, I won't lie. This is all down to Aaron Rodgers as an underdog and I can't bet against him. He's too good.

Drinks are on me fellas!

Those of who took the tips can buy your own, you're not short of money! :pac:

:D:D:D:D

homolumo · 10-01-2011 9:52am

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Drinks are on me fellas!

Those of who took the tips can buy your own, you're not short of money! :pac:

:D:D:D:D

Thanks a lot for the tips. The Yankee paid out about 6/1.

fkiely · 10-01-2011 2:14pm

Well done fella, truely excellent stuff. Looking forward to your next installment.

Peyton Manning · 10-01-2011 6:51pm

Well it's the big one. The National Championship Game is here, I am so bloody excited. Cam Newton and his Auburn Tigers vs LaMichael James and the Oregon Ducks. What a spectacle this promises to be. If you're just a casual reader of this thread and you don't normally watch the games, make sure you watch this. It's one hell of a show, and I'm putting a big sum of money on it.

BCS National Championship Game
Monday 10th January 2011, 8:30pm ET (1:30am Irish Time)

Auburn Tigers (-1) vs Oregon Ducks

A few weeks ago, I was set to put the house on Auburn at -3. This has now fallen to -1, and rather than get more confident, I've gotten more indecisive. I've looked at Oregon a bit more, and a I see a team with big wins over big teams. Andrew Luck's Stanford succumbed spectacularly to the Ducks high-octane offence (if you haven't seen them play, you're in for a treat. They are the fastest team in the country). However, two things go against the Ducks here. One, Auburn are ready for that. They're a very fast defence themselves, and while it only takes an average of 17 seconds to get a play off in between snaps, Auburn's defence have been practising in the run up to this game with 9 seconds in between snaps, so they're going to be ready. Second, when they're not at home, Oregon are nowhere near as impressive. They struggled to beat California for crying out loud. Homefield advantage is huge in College ball, and on a level playing field, Oregon lose a huge advantage. I can see Auburn having a lot of success on the ground. They're O-line outweighs Oregon's defensive line by a staggering 45 pounds per person (combared to a 20 pound swing per man the other way around). Now I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon have a big lead at some stage during this match, but I won't panic. I don't need to remind anyone that Alabama lead this team 24-0 at one stage, but up stepped Cam Newton. Yeah, it took me until now to mention him! Look, it's simple. I'm putting my money in the hands of the best player in college football, who is a mediocre game away from having the best statistical season of any QB in SEC history (he only needs about 150 yards to break Tebow's record). Newton has accounted for 49 touchdowns this year (28 passing, 20 rushing and 1 receiving) which is outstanding. He's the best player on the field, and I also think Auburn have the best defensive player on the field in Nick Fairley, who could find himself the number 1 pick in the draft next year depending on how Carolina prioritise their needs. Finally, there are a couple of stats that edge me towards Auburn. First, their coach Gene Chizik has a record of 8-0 in bowl games. Second, the SEC Champion has won the last 4 National Championships, and has a record of 6-0 all time. Above all else, with Cam Newton on the field, I don't see that changing tonght. Quite simply, he is that damn good.

Bring it on

Onecoolcookie · 10-01-2011 8:12pm

Paddy Power at the moment seem to have the Ducks as the favourites and are offering Auburn at 10/11 with a 1 point handicap, they are the only bookies who go against Auburn on the spread so it could possibly be a mistake but is definitely excellent value

Peyton Manning · 10-01-2011 8:17pm

Onecoolcookie wrote: »

Paddy Power at the moment seem to have the Ducks as the favourites and are offering Auburn at 10/11 with a 1 point handicap, they are the only bookies who go against Auburn on the spread so it could possibly be a mistake but is definitely excellent value

That is very strange alright, although given the shoot out that I expect this to be, I highly doubt this will be a 1 point game! Still though, obviously the +1 is safer. Maybe PP put a lot of stock in what the Sharps think. They're all over Oregon from what I've read. Still very strange though, good find!

Onecoolcookie · 10-01-2011 8:40pm

Just had another look there and I'm pretty certain it's a mistake on PP's part as Auburn are priced at 20/23 in the outright match betting.

I'm still going to wait for in play betting though as I think there will be some excellent betting opportunities tonight

d-gal · 10-01-2011 8:47pm

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Well it's the big one. The National Championship Game is here, I am so bloody excited. Cam Newton and his Auburn Tigers vs LaMichael James and the Oregon Ducks. What a spectacle this promises to be. If you're just a casual reader of this thread and you don't normally watch the games, make sure you watch this. It's one hell of a show, and I'm putting a big sum of money on it.

BCS National Championship Game
Monday 10th January 2011, 8:30pm ET (1:30am Irish Time)

Auburn Tigers (-1) vs Oregon Ducks

A few weeks ago, I was set to put the house on Auburn at -3. This has now fallen to -1, and rather than get more confident, I've gotten more indecisive. I've looked at Oregon a bit more, and a I see a team with big wins over big teams. Andrew Luck's Stanford succumbed spectacularly to the Ducks high-octane offence (if you haven't seen them play, you're in for a treat. They are the fastest team in the country). However, two things go against the Ducks here. One, Auburn are ready for that. They're a very fast defence themselves, and while it only takes an average of 17 seconds to get a play off in between snaps, Auburn's defence have been practising in the run up to this game with 9 seconds in between snaps, so they're going to be ready. Second, when they're not at home, Oregon are nowhere near as impressive. They struggled to beat California for crying out loud. Homefield advantage is huge in College ball, and on a level playing field, Oregon lose a huge advantage. I can see Auburn having a lot of success on the ground. They're O-line outweighs Oregon's defensive line by a staggering 45 pounds per person (combared to a 20 pound swing per man the other way around). Now I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon have a big lead at some stage during this match, but I won't panic. I don't need to remind anyone that Alabama lead this team 24-0 at one stage, but up stepped Cam Newton. Yeah, it took me until now to mention him! Look, it's simple. I'm putting my money in the hands of the best player in college football, who is a mediocre game away from having the best statistical season of any QB in SEC history (he only needs about 150 yards to break Tebow's record). Newton has accounted for 49 touchdowns this year (28 passing, 20 rushing and 1 receiving) which is outstanding. He's the best player on the field, and I also think Auburn have the best defensive player on the field in Nick Fairley, who could find himself the number 1 pick in the draft next year depending on how Carolina prioritise their needs. Finally, there are a couple of stats that edge me towards Auburn. First, their coach Gene Chizik has a record of 8-0 in bowl games. Second, the SEC Champion has won the last 4 National Championships, and has a record of 6-0 all time. Above all else, with Cam Newton on the field, I don't see that changing tonght. Quite simply, he is that damn good.

Bring it on

Took them for a straight win at 1.97 on betfair, really enjoying this thread, great write ups and no BS, long may your money winning continue

UrbanSea · 10-01-2011 10:35pm

Nice weekend man. I was in America last week,gutted I'm not there to see this game. Should be a classic.

manafana · 11-01-2011 12:14am

01:30 Oregon vs Auburn
Auburn to win
@ 2.04 Betfair

Welcome to glendale arizona the home of the bcs bowl for this year. It played host to the superbowl 2years ago and is a fantastic venue. Its west verus east as these two face off. Simliar trips for both so expect an even crowd. This is just the 2nd bowl excluding the inuragel bcs bowl where both teams had yet to appear in the new format, this is also first of those finals not to feature mulitiple winners of any of the bcs bowls, auburn has just one title and auburn is looking for its first. onto the game, at qb for auburn sits cam newton the heisman winner, theirs even more to his game than tim tebow in my view, he has single handed helped bring this programme up in standing as well in times of trouble with his dad seeking payment for his sons services. In thomas oregon also have an effective qb, but who just seems outclassed slightyly in every area of game by cam. james is the class running back on field for oregon and he was 3rd in the heisman voting and will shine next year as he comes back for another year in college. Both teams have quality receiver in their amoury, but real issue is what each of their defenses may be capable of. orgeon allowed 6pts less a game but faced an easier schedule, auburn faced 5teams in top 20 during its season the ducks faced just the one. This is such a fresh game for the bcs with both teams having started ranked out the top10 first time both teams in final started outside top10. My opinion on why auburn will win, lies in they convincing way they won the division but also in way they came back when down and out. Oregon have had things much easier and face their sterness test here.

Peyton Manning · 11-01-2011 6:15am

*Clears throat*

*Drinks water*

Ahem....

GET THE FÚCK IN!!!!!

:D:D:D:D

iggy · 11-01-2011 6:16am

Nice one again. Super stuff. Very close game but the result came in. Great stuff

Peyton Manning · 11-01-2011 6:18am

iggy wrote: »

Nice one again. Super stuff. Very close game but the result came in. Great stuff

Please remind me never to bet that much money on a game again. If I want to maximise the excitement, a simple ten or twenty bet will do the finest. That was not as enjoyable as it should have been, I have no fúcking finger nails left! :pac:

Bumsex · 11-01-2011 6:22am

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Please remind me never to bet that much money on a game again. If I want to maximise the excitement, a simple ten or twenty bet will do the finest. That was not as enjoyable as it should have been, I have no fúcking finger nails left! :pac:

ha your some man,
i had 600 on them,so you can imagine how i was feeling,even though tbh i wasnt that bad,great game,the score line did not reflect the game at all,auburn were all over them,especially in the defence...

Peyton Manning · 11-01-2011 6:23am

Bumsex wrote: »

ha your some man,
i had 600 on them,so you can imagine how i was feeling,even though tbh i wasnt that bad,great game,the score line did not reflect the game at all,auburn were all over them,especially in the defence...

Tell me about it! Not that he needs it, because he'll probably get the #1 draft pick and about 40 million dollars for doing so, but I owe half my winnings to Nick Fairley. What an absolute beast. Michael Dyer eclipsing LaMichael James, who'd have thunk it? Fantastic stuff.

homolumo · 11-01-2011 9:39am

Thanks again. Great stuff. You can always trust Bumsex to go big.:)

Mossyman · 11-01-2011 11:32am

Great call again Tom, put more than I usually would on this and went to bed around 12.00. It was a nice way to wake up to check my PP account! Keep up the great work. 3/3 for me, 5/5 for you; pity I didn't follow your first two bets of the weekend!!

CriticEyes · 12-01-2011 1:04am

Hey Archie good job over the weekend was on all your tips this weekend and have been on loads of your other bets in the past too so thanks for them aswell cheers. Was a sweet weekend. Just wanted to know your opinion on who you think will win the Super Bowl. This is my 1st season following the American football and all I can say its savage. Some game last night. Was going to do an outright bet before this weekend and your opionion on it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks:D

Bumsex · 12-01-2011 1:10am

SirDelboy18 wrote: »

If you were to stick your neck out and pick a team to win outright, who would you go for?

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Right now? Hard not to pick the Packers based on what we've seen so far.

CriticEyes wrote: »

Hey Archie good job over the weekend was on all your tips this weekend and have been on loads of your other bets in the past too so thanks for them aswell cheers. Was a sweet weekend. Just wanted to know your opinion on who you think will win the Super Bowl. This is my 1st season following the American football and all I can say its savage. Some game last night. Was going to do an outright bet before this weekend and your opionion on it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks:D

.;)

CriticEyes · 12-01-2011 1:16am

Like i said in your log im new still getting use to this. So I can get on packers at 9/2 might have a small bet on this for the interest. thanks

Peyton Manning · 12-01-2011 1:20am

Bumsex wrote: »

.;)

Holy shít, is that what he meant!? I thought he meant the Eagles - Packers game on the money line, not the SuperBowl! Oops

CriticEyes wrote:

Hey Archie good job over the weekend was on all your tips this weekend and have been on loads of your other bets in the past too so thanks for them aswell cheers. Was a sweet weekend. Just wanted to know your opinion on who you think will win the Super Bowl. This is my 1st season following the American football and all I can say its savage. Some game last night. Was going to do an outright bet before this weekend and your opionion on it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

No problem man, delighted you made a few quid!

It's still all very much up in the air, but if there was a gun put to my head, I'd say we'll have a Patriots - Packers Superbowl, and I can see the Lombardi returning to Green Bay in that scenario. That's painful to say as a Pats fan, but while people think that the eliminations of Indianapolis, New Orleans and Philly make the Patriots stronger favourites, I myself think the most significant development this week has made the Packers favourites - and that is the discovery of a running game. James Starks is the key to the rest of the Packers postseason, he was great the other night and now the burden is no longer on Aaron Rodgers to guide this team by himself. Don't get me wrong, he's still their number one guy, but Starks explosiveness opens up so much for the Packers offence. Rodgers also has that elusive post season win under his belt, which will give him the hunger for more. I think they beat Atlanta this weekend in a close game (I can see it going similar to the Saints win in Atlanta towards the end of the year), clinch the NFC Championship against the Bears/Seahawks and go up against the Pats (I don't think the Pats will have any trouble this weekend against the Jets, and I think the Steelers beat the Ravens, and Brady's dominance over the Steelers continues in the AFC Championship - more on that with this week's picks later). I can then only go on what I saw already this year and that was the Packers without Rodgers giving a top-of-their-game Patriots a close call, so with Rodgers, I'd give them the edge. Like I said, that's just my prediction and it's all very much up in the air, but the Packers @ 6/1 outright (Bet365, may be better elsewhere) is the best value imo. I'll throw up some picks for this weekend either later on or tomorrow.

CriticEyes · 12-01-2011 1:26am

Savage man thanks again. I look forward to your shouts this week and am really looking forward to the games.

jive · 12-01-2011 1:27am

noticed packers are 9/2 at powers but 6/1 on bet365!! worth a few bob i think! if just for interest more than anything else!

Peyton Manning · 12-01-2011 1:28am

CriticEyes wrote: »

and am really looking forward to the games.

You and me both!

What I would say though is that seeing as I had a clean sweep last weekend, the odds of it happening again are against me, so don't bet anything more than you did last weekend, and as always, never bet any amount you couldn't cope with losing!

CriticEyes · 12-01-2011 2:00am

Will do. I tend not to bet big. Usually between €5 - €20. sometimes bigger depending on the occasion. I know not massive but it keeps me interested and leaves me on the edge of the seat with suspense. Like last night after that Auburn game. Wow that was some game of ball. I really enjoyed last night's game. Anyway good luck with your posts this weekend.

Peyton Manning · 12-01-2011 12:17pm

Right, here's what I like this weekend. Getting tougher to call these as the playoffs progress, but none the less, I'll be putting my money where my mouth is. Same stakes as last week, nothing excessive.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

In Week 4, Baltimore went to Pittsburgh and won by 3 points. 9 weeks later, Pittsburgh travelled to Baltimore and returned the favour, also winning by 3 points. What triggered the 6 point swing in favour of the Steelers? Big Ben. He was suspended in Week 4, and his return was such a huge boost. He's had a great year, I honestly think that had he not been suspended, he would be rivalling Tom Brady for league MVP right about now. Joe Flacco must have been gutted that the Steelers stuck with Ben (weaker willed teams may have traded him) because Flacco has never beaten Roethlisberger any time they've met. I think that trend continues this week, because Flacco has not blown anyone away this year, and the Heinz Field faithful know how to put on a show in the playoffs. It's such an intimidating venue. Before this season, the team with home advantage had won 14 of their last 16 meetings when these two powerhouses collide. The Steelers will be well rested, and know fully well to expect a blood bath this weekend. Big Ben lead his team to victory despite a broken nose last time round - he's won in the playoffs before, he has the rings to prove it - watch him get revenge by breaking Baltimore hearts and sending them home.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

Well it's more of the same from last week. Aaron Rodgers is the underdog, and the bookies are giving him free points. Like he needs them! Rodgers now has that monkey off his back with his first playoff win under his belt, and you can bet your bottom dollar that he loves it and would like to taste a few more. The last time these two met, the Falcons won by a FG, but that was down to a stupid facemask penalty on the final drive by the Packers. They have cleaned up their act a bit as the season progressed and don't give away as many silly penalties. Rodgers was on fire in that game incidentally, and the Falcons secondary really struggled to keep him at bay. But the biggest development has been James Starks. Green Bay finally has a running game, rejoice! This opens up so many options for their offence as now the Packers will no longer run the ball just to keep the opposing defence honest, they can now run it with the intention of making big plays on the ground. Matty Ice is no longer King of the Dome, Drew Brees came to town and showed that the Falcons can be beat on their home patch. Want to know a secret? Aaron Rodgers is a better QB than Drew Brees. Yeah I said it, but he just needs the ring to prove it.

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ Chicago Bears

These guys just crushed the Saints and won me a nice few quid doing so, how can I break their poor little hearts and bet against them? If that sounds patronising, then good. Because look how the Seahawks played last week when the whole NFL world was patronising them - myself included. I was confident of a cover. I only gave them a 1 in 10 shot of a win, but we all know how that went! These two teams met in Week 6 in Chicago, where the Bears were favoured by -7.5. Now they're suddenly favoured by 10? Excuse me, but I just don't get that at all. What has changed since then that the Seahawks are suddenly seen as an even bigger underdog? The Seahawks went on to not only cover the spread in that game, but they won it by 23-20. They have since shown that they have no fear against the big dogs (ask New Orleans how being a double digit favourite went against these guys), they've shown that they actually quite like it in the playoffs and have no intention of going home, and Matt Hasselbeck has shown there is still life in the old dog yet. He manifested that life in the form of 272 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Saints last week. Also, this is Jay Cutler's first ever foray into the playoffs. He's manning a 10 point favourite, he will be expected to make big plays for his team and Im just not sure he'll be able to keep his cool with a buzzing Seahawks with nothing to lose coming to town.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-8.5)

I can't believe I'm backing an 8.5 favourite in a divisional championship game between two divisional rivals who have shared wins over each other this year. Then again, I still can't believe what I saw in Foxborough when the Patriots went to town over the Jets, crushing them 45-3. Mark Sanchez has had a poor year. Let's not get carried away with what were admittedly some great last gasp plays, most notably against Houston during the regular season and against the Colts last week. He's accuracy is just off and he's hanging his passes in the air way too long. A Patriots defence who has a habit of making big plays and forcing turnovers could cause him all sorts of problems....again.....this weekend. But make no mistake, I'm merely just investing my money in the Tom Brady depository savings bank. He's been on another level this season, and if you're relatively new to the NFL, then you ain't seen nothing yet because he is at home in the playoffs, owning a 14-4 record. Rex Ryan put his heart and soul into finally figuring out how to beat Peyton Manning last week. Manning is a good, but he's no Brady. Manning struggles in the playoffs, owning a losing record of 9-10 in the post season. Ryan barely came up trumps against him last week, how does he expect to come up trumps against Brady in his element? Also, it's gonna be a cold one on Sunday, and the Pats thrive in cold conditions. If you're worried about Darrelle Revis, then don't. Yeah, he's sensational, but that's when he has a number 1 receiver to cover. There's no Reggie Wayne to stick with this week, because Brady has no preference when it comes to his targets. Whether it be Branch, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Woodhead or even Lawfirm out of the backfield or Crumpler when he's not blocking, or even Brandon Tate or Taylor Price, Brady is the perfect QB to take advantage of so many options. This won't be another 45-3, but the Pats have too much for the Jets and I expect them to win by double digits.

I'll be lumping these together as two doubles for what it's worth, the underdogs as one selection and the favourites as the other, but use them how you please if indeed you use them at all!

Johner · 12-01-2011 12:39pm

I've got to start following this thread!

Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

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