Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

CriticEyes

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Nice one man! Delighted for you

What way did you group the doubles? Did you put tonight's two games and tomorrow's two games together, or did you do it by putting the two underdogs and the two favourites together?

I did Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers in one and
New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers in the other double. Got New England Patriots -8. Im really confident on that one. I think i may have a small single on that. We will see tomorrow.

jive

sick dude am on all 4 of your selections because your in such excellent form. put more on seahawks and patriots though (as i was more confident about them coming in than the 2 tonight!) so hopefully they follow suit :P i only need 1 of them to win to secure a decent profit anyway..... but lets not be silly i want em both to win :P

x PyRo

Keep up the great work "Tom". :pac:

Tell Archi to come back soon.

CriticEyes

Well done again 6/6. hopefully tomorrow it will be 8/8. Good luck

homolumo

Like last weekend I backed your 4 selections in a yankee. I did the same this weekend but for some reason I thought you had picked the Ravens, thats what I get for not checking. What a dope.

Juwwi

Paddy power have a special Wes Welker to score a touchdown anytime and New England to win at 14/5


Does that look to good to be true to you ?

he is generaly only 11/10 on oddschecker for anytime and am l right in thinking he is the first player Tom Brady looks for when throwing.

Thanks

Headshot

wouldnt ya know the last 2 loss:(

I only went for the pats one myself, I dont know much about NFL but I presume that's a big surprise

Peyton Manning

Big surprise indeed. I couldn't care less about the losing bets, Im just gutted my team lost

MikeyGorse

Well Tom,what are your picks this week? Packers & Steelers to cover the handicap I'm guessing.

Peyton Manning

I'll take a look at it later, not too sure about the Packers one. I'd be leaning towards the Bears at first glance but I haven't looked into it a whole heap. I've refused to acknowledge that the NFL exists this week

manafana

Tom_Brady wrote: »

I'll take a look at it later, not too sure about the Packers one. I'd be leaning towards the Bears at first glance but I haven't looked into it a whole heap. I've refused to acknowledge that the NFL exists this week

your a patriots fan anyway with that attiude

Peyton Manning

I suppose today I'll go for the following. No time for big write ups so just the main points will be listed.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Everybody is on the Aaron Rodgers bandwagon now but he's no longer an underdog, so I don't have to keep backing him. On the contrary, I think the Bears as the number 2 seed at home in a huge, huge rivalry as underdogs is something I cant pass up. I actually fancy the Packers to win, but by a field goal or less. How the Packers handle Devin Hester returns is key. If they kick out of bounds, they're taking a risk with field position which will play into the Bears' hands (or paws?). Kick it to him, and it's pretty much Russian roulette. This should be a very close one.

New York Jets (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Such are the fine lines in spread gambling that I would have been all over the Steelers at -3, but as that has gone up during the week, I'm now on the Jets. This won't be a blowout in either direction, neither team operate like that. This will be a tough game won in the trenches, and while the Steelers may have the better options in the glamour positions, the Jets have the advantage in the offensive and defensive lines (I'd normally give the Steelers O-line the edge over the Jets D-line, but the Steelers are ravaged by injuries). If the Steelers win this, again, it will be by a field goal I reckon. It's 50/50 as to how this game will go but I do fancy the Jets to cover the spread.

CriticEyes

Hey. What do you think for the weekend? I have the Packers @ 9/2 and have money on with a friend that Packers will take it. But to be honest I think Steelers might take it now. Was thinking of taking Steelers +2.5 and hope that I win all around. Anyway what's your opinion on the game? Cheers

Peyton Manning

Wouldn't ya know it's the toughest game of the year to call! Talent wise, I can't look past the Packers but the Steelers have been here before and know what this occasion is all about. Big Ben is also the most clutch QB in the league at the moment and I just can't see him letting his team down. I could flip a coin and I'd be happy to go with either outcome. Given that, I'd have to take the team that's being given the points and that's the Steelers at +3. But it's not a high confidence bet at all. I'll do a more detailed write up by the weekend but I'll probably put a bet on Big Ben to win MVP too given my luck with my Saints/Drew Brees MVP combo last year :pac:

CriticEyes

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Wouldn't ya know it's the toughest game of the year to call! Talent wise, I can't look past the Packers but the Steelers have been here before and know what this occasion is all about. Big Ben is also the most clutch QB in the league at the moment and I just can't see him letting his team down. I could flip a coin and I'd be happy to go with either outcome. Given that, I'd have to take the team that's being given the points and that's the Steelers at +3. But it's not a high confidence bet at all. I'll do a more detailed write up by the weekend but I'll probably put a bet on Big Ben to win MVP too given my luck with my Saints/Drew Brees MVP combo last year :pac:

Cheers dude.

jive

i got on the packers about a month ago after you said you thought they could go all the way. i think i posted it in this thread actually after you said it, 6/1 with bet365. thanks for that cause i'm going to make a bit of money no matter what happens now

Peyton Manning

jive wrote: »

i got on the packers about a month ago after you said you thought they could go all the way. i think i posted it in this thread actually after you said it, 6/1 with bet365. thanks for that cause i'm going to make a bit of money no matter what happens now

That's all well and good, but they were supposed to be playing the bloody Patriots this weekend

Le King

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Wouldn't ya know it's the toughest game of the year to call! Talent wise, I can't look past the Packers but the Steelers have been here before and know what this occasion is all about. Big Ben is also the most clutch QB in the league at the moment and I just can't see him letting his team down. I could flip a coin and I'd be happy to go with either outcome. Given that, I'd have to take the team that's being given the points and that's the Steelers at +3. But it's not a high confidence bet at all. I'll do a more detailed write up by the weekend but I'll probably put a bet on Big Ben to win MVP too given my luck with my Saints/Drew Brees MVP combo last year :pac:

Good log Archie, only saw this today.

This year I'm going for:

Mike Wallace first TD €5 @ 15/2
Steelers to win €5 @13/10
Big Ben MVP €10 @7/2

Here's why I think it will happen. During the playoffs, the Packers rank lower in total defense, rush defense, passing defense and rushing offense. Big Ben is the experienced QB here and the Steelers have much better Running back too. They have the better team overall. I'm not going by points margin wins either because of the Atlanta game. Rogers QB play has been excellent. When he has been at fault the defence has stepped up all season. But the Steelers have conceded fewer points than anybody in the league, the Packers are second behind them.

I think the Packers will lead the game early on. But I went for Mike Wallace for the first TD.

Just my game prediction. Packers HT/Steelers FT.

Hope you don't mind Archie just my 2c on the game. I'll remove it if you like.

Peyton Manning

Jaysus no worries at all man, post up what you like! This has kind of become an NFL thread by default anyway so a few people often post their own take on games here anyway.

I see the over/under has gone up to 44.5. I still expect it to go up to 45 by Sunday, and I'll prob go on the unders seeing as both teams are ranked 1 and 2 respectively in points against this season (Steelers 15 points per game and Packers 14.5 points per game).

CriticEyes

So what ya thinking for tonight? Any tips?

Peyton Manning

I'm still leaning towards the Steelers to be honest. I can't for the life of me see how the bookies can make either team a favourite here, so I just have to go with the team that comes with the points. The Packers have a lot of momentum, but Im just not sure how they will have coped with a 2 week layoff and the circus that comes with it. They would much preferred to play this game last week if they could. The Steelers have done this before and they'll be very focused, but very relaxed too. In some ways this reminds me of the Steelers 2008 victory, in that they are going up against a very high powered offence who are putting up points for fun. Ok, the Packers defence is on another planet to that Cardinals defence, but the Steelers have weapons now that they hadn't back then to kind of offset that a bit. Mike Wallace will cause the secondary so much trouble, because Williams and Woodson are physical backs, they like to get in their receivers face, but they'll have to give Wallace a lot of space because there's no way they can match him in a straight foot race. Wallace is the fastest receiver outside of Jacoby Ford in the league. In Rashard Mendenhall, they have a stud running back who will do a hell of a lot more than keep the Packers D honest. And then there's the progression we've seen in Ben Roethlisberger, who I've made no secret about labelling the most clutch QB in the league this season. It doesn't get more clutch than the Superbowl, so Im putting my money in his hands. It's not a high confidence bet, it's the toughest Superbowl to call in years, but I guess I'm going with the old mantra that defence wins championships. The Packers may be more electrifying, but the Steelers are the better defence here. I'll go for Steelers 24 Packers 20.

Seeing as I'm picking the Steelers, I'll also go with Big Ben for Superbowl MVP. He hasn't won the MVP in either of his two Superbowl victories so far, but if they win tonight I can see that changing. A quarterback has also won the MVP award in 3 of the last 4 years and 7 of the last 12. Suffice to say, if you win the Superbowl, your QB having a good game is likely to be one of the reasons as the winning team's QB has won the award more than 50% of the time since it's inception.

JONJO THE MISER

Im going for the stealers at 20/27 with Ladbrokes.

Headshot

man i love the ads

Im not even looking at the match :pac:

Peyton Manning

$3 million for a 30 second ad, they'd want to be good ones! :eek:

Headshot

http://www.youtube.com/adblitz

yesno1234

Went with ya on the Steelers tonight. Only had a small bet, more for interest out of anything, as me and few of the lads had few beers watched the match although, none of us had never watched a superbowl before, but was a great game though and has definately raised my interest in the sport thanks anyways for the tip though.

jive

packers bet came in 6/1 delighted. Lost 25 euro on it as well though as i took steelers +6 (incl. draw) after green bay went 7-0. I had 20 on at 6/1 so that was just a way of saving my stake... nearly paid off nicely too :pac:

Peyton Manning

yesno1234 wrote: »

Went with ya on the Steelers tonight. Only had a small bet, more for interest out of anything, as me and few of the lads had few beers watched the match although, none of us had never watched a superbowl before, but was a great game though and has definately raised my interest in the sport thanks anyways for the tip though.

Good to hear you enjoyed. Sorry the tip never came through for you, it was a hard game to call. My tipping in the playoffs was really a game of two halves. I got the first 6 games right, and the last 5 wrong

jive wrote: »

packers bet came in 6/1 delighted. Lost 25 euro on it as well though as i took steelers +6 (incl. draw) after green bay went 7-0. I had 20 on at 6/1 so that was just a way of saving my stake... nearly paid off nicely too :pac:

Nice one man! Although my tip tonight lost, Im glad that one came through for you. A bit of pride salvaged I had also tipped the Packers to win the Super Bowl at the start of the year in a predictions thread over on the American Football forum so Im happy with

Really had a lot of fun in this thread during the year and it was great to see people join in and bounce tips and ideas off each other. That's really about it for the year though, not much else I can bet on. If there's any value in the draft I might see what I can do. There might be a couple of Cam Newton specials ala Tebow last year, but sure we'll see how the scouting combine goes in a couple of weeks.

homolumo

jive wrote: »

packers bet came in 6/1 delighted.

I knew I would regret not taking that 6/1 a few weeks back.