Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

Peyton Manning

nkay1985 wrote: »

Going to give this a try for a while anyway and follow you Archie. You seem to know your NFL. I know nothing at all about it so it won't be a case of me second guessing whether you're right or not, just blindly following! Just hope Boyles has most of the bets you're on as I'm going to use that as my NFL account basically.

No pressure then! Welcome aboard!

To be honest, a win-loss ratio of 2:1 so far is better than I ever expected! Had I broken even for preseason, I would have been delighted as I said on the first page a large reason for me betting on preseason was just to make the games more exciting - you can blame football withdrawal symptom since the Superbowl for that! Betting on preseason is generally not recommended, but I'm on a good run and gotten lucky so far. Tonight will in all likelihood be my last bet on preseason, as Week 4 is a definite no-go area. I've already made a couple of picks for Week 1 of the regular season - Ill throw them up after tonights game.

If you wanna start immediately, you have just under 10 mins to place a small 2 point stake on the Steelers at (-2) @ 10/11

Nuri Sahin

I'll follow you on this one Archie. I could do a change from the footy and golf.

Went with Steelers -2 as you recommended

Peyton Manning

Always remember, whenever we lose, it's your fault :P

mikemac

Good stuff Archi

But the 3rd stringers will be out for Week 4 of preseason.
I'll be following with interest but no way am I betting on that week :eek:

nkay1985

Archimedes wrote: »

If you wanna start immediately, you have just under 10 mins to place a small 2 point stake on the Steelers at (-2) @ 10/11

Yeah I'm usually a pretty small stakes gambler anyway but this would be handy to improve my knowledge of football as it's a sport I enjoy watching (and would enjoy even more if it wasn't for the ad breaks ). I'm on the Steelers (-2) and have placed your season long bets too.

Adrian Peterson is 6/1 to be rushing yards leader on Boyles by the way. Amateur. :P

Peyton Manning

feelingstressed wrote: »

Good stuff Archi

But the 3rd stringers will be out for Week 4 of preseason.
I'll be following with interest but no way am I betting on that week :eek:

You and me both! Week 4 is very much a definite no-no. Although having said that, the Bengals might be a good shout over the Colts, depending on the spread. Marvin Lewis has a 6-1 record in Week 4. Those 6 wins all came against the Colts, as these two always play in Week 4, and they've all came the last 6 years in a row. So I probably will throw a 3 pointer on it!

Peyton Manning

Bah, bad night to start following me. Not looking good at the moment. Denis Dixon has been especially poor, throwing two picks in the process, but it's the O-line I'm most disappointed in. Barring a 4th quarter comeback, this one is a write off.

nkay1985

Archimedes wrote: »

Bah, bad night to start following me. Not looking good at the moment. Denis Dixon has been especially poor, throwing two picks in the process, but it's the O-line I'm most disappointed in. Barring a 4th quarter comeback, this one is a write off.

Ah it's just a test of faith to see how dedicated we are to you. In Archie we trust! :P

Peyton Manning

I'll make it back for you with my Cincinnati bet next week. My little explanation of the bet will be so convincing, you wont be able to not bet on it!

Seriously though, apologies for this loss. Really was a turn-up for the books - Mike Tomlin (Steelers coach) has a hugely impressive preseason record compared to Josh McDaniels (Broncos coach), and with the Bronco's injury crisis, I was fully expecting a Steelers win.

nkay1985

Archimedes wrote: »

I'll make it back for you with my Cincinnati bet next week. My little explanation of the bet will be so convincing, you wont be able to not bet on it!

Seriously though, apologies for this loss. Really was a turn-up for the books - Mike Tomlin (Steelers coach) has a hugely impressive preseason record compared to Josh McDaniels (Broncos coach), and with the Bronco's injury crisis, I was fully expecting a Steelers win.

Ah in fairness without the two interceptions, it could have been a lot closer in the final quarter. Wouldn't worry too much about it.

Peyton Manning

Saturday 28th Aug, 9:00pm ET (2:00am Irish Time, Sunday 29th Aug)
San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders

and

Sunday 29th Aug, 8:00pm ET (1:00am Irish Time, Monday 30th Aug)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

2.5 pts - Winners - San Francisco 49ers (+1) & Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) @ 2.64/1 (Bet365)

Lose returns 0 pts

Disappointed with that bet. The 49ers came through in style, but the Steelers bombed big time. Oh well, it was a good streak while it lasted!

Thursday 2nd Sept, 7:00pm ET (00:01am Irish Time, Friday 3rd Sept)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
3 pts - Winner - Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I'm going against my word of avoiding Week 4 like the plague here, but you have to look at this match historically. The Bengals and Colts always play each other in Week 4 of preseason, and the Bengals have won 6 years in a row, all under Marvin Lewis. The last time they failed to beat a spread of -6.5 in these games was back in 2004, so in that regard, I'm pretty confident with this bet. Also, the Colts have been very unimpressive when Peyton Manning has not been taking the snaps this preseason, so there's no way in hell they'll risk anything happening to him.

Unsettled Bets: 7
Settled Bets: 10
Wins: 6
Losses: 4

Total Points Bet: 24
Total Points Returned: 30.92

Profit: 28.3%

nkay1985

Good stuff. I'll be on my last night in work so following that game will be something to do.

Peyton Manning

Im adding a further 2 pts to my previous bet of Bengals (-6.5) tonight, making it a 5 pt bet. I took a hit with the soccer over the past few days, so I need to make some more money

heavyballs

backed the ravens for the Superbowl,can anyone tell me how they are 27/20 v the Rams at 1am,i presume as the season is so close it'll be like their 2nd team,anyway i couldn't resist,i'm on

Peyton Manning

heavyballs wrote: »

backed the ravens for the Superbowl,can anyone tell me how they are 27/20 v the Rams at 1am,i presume as the season is so close it'll be like their 2nd team,anyway i couldn't resist,i'm on

It will basically be their 2nd and 3rd string players (the latter for the majority) for the exact reason you pointed out - the regular season is only 1 week away!

nkay1985

Archimedes wrote: »

Im adding a further 2 pts to my previous bet of Bengals (-6.5) tonight, making it a 5 pt bet. I took a hit with the soccer over the past few days, so I need to make some more money

A 93 yard touchdown is a nice way to get past the spread for the first time.

Would be nice to see another Bengals touchdown before the 4th quarter.

nkay1985

Fcuking Colts. Touchdown with 1:39 remaining to bring it back to 2 points. They somehow managed to get from their 10 to a touchdown in the last few minutes of the entier game, including two 4th downs.

Peyton Manning

:mad:

nkay1985

Archimedes wrote: »

:mad:

Yeah I second that. Wasn't watching it but it seemed to me that the Bengals should never had conceeded that last touchdown.

Peyton Manning

Time for the regular season baby!

Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
3 pts - Winner - New England Patriots (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Tom Brady has looked like the Tom Brady we know and love this preseason. His knee injury is well and truly behind him, so expect him to light up the NFL this season. I think the Pats have just too many weapons for the Bengals to deal with, who are under a lot of pressure given the intense focus they've been under this preseason. To stop Brady, you need to get him, and the Bengals just don't have that good of a pass rush. Brady's record as a starter in home games has me very confident they can cover the spread here.


Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
1 pts - Winner - Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I usually look for a clear favourite, and then see if the spread is suitable. There's no clear favourite here, so a spread of +6.5 for the Panthers is too tempting to turn down. The Giants have the pressure of performing in the opener of their new stadium. An interesting stat I've read is that favourites have lost 8 times from 11 when opening a new stadium in the NFL over the past 15 years. Aside from that, both teams should focus on running the ball, with the passing game lacking a bit. That should see more field goals than touchdowns in third and long situations, which goes nicely with this spread bet.

Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
3 pts - Winner - Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

This is the value bet of the week for me. A spread of +6.5 for the Lions is too generous to turn down. I'm loving whats going on in Detroit. Matthew Stafford is a stud, Calvin Johnson is the most freakishly athletically skilled player in the NFL, and Jahvid Best looks like a star in the making at RB. Despite all this, the best thing the Lions have going at the moment is the addition of Nate Burleson. Now, Burleson is nowhere near those three in terms of star power, but what does do is open it up for the playmakers. This is the first time Calvin Johnson has had a legitimate threat lining up across the field from him, so it will take some coverage away from him, which also helps the running game of course. Jay Cutler on the other hand doesn't look much improved from last season if what we've seen from preseason is anything to go by, and while Matt Forte should bounce back from last years dismal failing, he doesn't carry the same threat as he used to. Expect this to be a scorefest, although I wont be doing any overs/unders in the first week.

Sunday 12th September 4:15pm ET (9:15pm Irish Time)
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
4 pts - Winner - San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

Wow, so let me get this straight. The Seahawks, a team in rapid decline with an old, beat up Quarterback, one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, sub-par running backs (and still not knowing which one is their preferred starter), and minus their stud draft pick, are expected to keep up with a 3 point spread against a team with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and a badass defence captained by the best linebacker in the business? I'm all over this one like a bad rash, but Im so confident of it winning, I imagine it's a sexually transmitted rash after a night of passion with Cheryl Cole, so I don't feel too bad about it.

I'll also be doing a weekly 1 pts accumulator for the heck of it. This weeks selection is:

Miami Dolphins (-3.0) @ Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

1 pts @ 11/1 (Bet365)

Note: You might notice some of the spreads are different in the accumulator to what Bet365 are showing. That's because I placed the accumulator over a week ago, so there were different spreads available. From now on that shouldn't be the case as I'll only bet on the upcoming weeks action.

Also, 3 of the games I'm betting on will be on TV this week.

Panthers @ Giants
49ers @ Seahawks
Chargers @ Chiefs

They're all on Sky at their respective times, so you have no excuse not to get fully involved if you're following this thread

Here's to a great season of football!

Peyton Manning

Gonna throw a bet on the Penn State @ Alabama game later on. Not NFL, but it's still Football

Alabama are number 1 for reason, and even without Mark Ingram and Marcell Dareus, they have way too much for Penn State. That McElroy - Jones connection will be on fire, especially with home field advantage. Above all else, a true freshman going to Alabama just won't stand a chance. I'll go 2 pts on Alabama (-13.5) @ 10/11.

Peyton Manning

2 pts on Penn State @ Alabama (-13.5) @ 10/11.

Win returns 3.82 pts

Happy with that. This Alabama team will cover a lot of spreads once Ingram is back - not that he was missed tonight, Richardson was insanely good. That kid knows nothing but positive yardage.

Im gonna draw a line under my preseason bets, which ended up:

Total Points Bet: 29
Points Returned: 30.92

I'll take that, as I said, betting on preseason was all about making the games matter to me. Any profit (even one as minuscule as this!) would always be a bonus.

Now my first regular season bet came in, I'm off to a good start. Tomorrow's a big day

Total Points Bet: 2
Total Points Returned: 3.82

Peyton Manning

Two more bets for tomorrow:

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1 pts - Winner - Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

The more I think about it, the more I can see the Steelers coming away with a win here. This time last week, I was sure the Falcons could. But I'm just not confident Matt Ryan can get the job done. And when I'm iffy about a QB, I just look at the defence he's going up against. The Steelers are among the best in the business in that department. I'm counting on Denis Dixon showing a lot of maturity at QB for Pittsburgh, and I'm pretty sure their other playmakers can compensate for the lack of Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are underdogs at home, which will really tick Mike Tomlin off and enable him to inspire his team. The Falcons are in big danger of being too confident due to the Roethlisberger factor. I'm going for the Steelers here, and while a spread of +1.5 might not seem like much, if there's any game this weekend I can see with only a point separating the two sides, it's either this one or the Cowboys - Redskins.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
1 pts - Winner - Green Bay Packers (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

The only way the Eagles can get something from this game is if they can put pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I don't think they'll be able to do that to a high enough level, and with the weapons he has available to him, I expect the Eagles secondary to be torn apart. I still don't trust Kevin Kolb to lead the Eagles, I haven't seen enough from him to do that. He looks shaky under centre, and while a lot of that is down to his O-line performing well below their ability, I have to attribute some of it to Kolb himself. He's just not Donovan McNabb (which is no insult, few are). I'm pretty sure they can cover the spread here. If this game were in Week 2 onwards, I would be betting more than a solitary point, but I'll leave it at 1 for now.

L'prof

Archimedes wrote: »

Win returns 3.82 pts

Argh, my eyes! Try green instead of lime.

Peyton Manning

L'prof wrote: »

Argh, my eyes! Try green instead of lime.

I like lime, there's something a lot more triumphant about it!

Headshot

arch what do you think of this pp special


Green Bay to beat Philadelphia , San Fran 49ers to beat Seattle and Arizona Cardinals to beat St Louis Rams 7/2

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

arch what do you think of this pp special


Green Bay to beat Philadelphia , San Fran 49ers to beat Seattle and Arizona Cardinals to beat St Louis Rams 7/2

Hey man, sorry I never got to answer this, spent gameday at a mate's house. For what it's worth, I would have advised you to take the bet - and you would be quite mad at me right now as a result, so good thing I wasn't here!

Bit of a mixed bag today. Hell of day's worth of football, but only made a slight profit. Still got the majority of my bets right though, just that 4 point 49ers one cost me.

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1 pts - Winner - Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 1.91 pts

Happy I had a late change of heart here, because I was going with the Falcons all week, but the more I thought of Matt Ryan's inconsistency as of late, added with the Steelers and Tomlin being ticked off at being made home underdogs, this game was always going to be more mental than physical. And wouldn't you know, a Matt Ryan poor throw swung this in favour of the Steelers.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
1 pts - Winner - Green Bay Packers (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

Win returns 2 pts

Squeaky bum time towards the end, but the Packers were too good for the Eagles as expected. Rodgers wasn't as explosive as expected, but did enough to get the job done against a good Eagles secondary.

Sunday 12th September 4:15pm ET (9:15pm Irish Time)
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
4 pts - Winner - San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

Loss returns 0 pts

Major shock here, but big props to the Seahawks - they rose to the occasion. Everything went right for them today, while everything went against the 49ers (through their own doing might I add). Alex Smith's impressive preseason wrote off by a horror show today, and while I would still fancy them in quite a few homes games, it'll be a while before I bet on them on the road again. Spoiled my accumulator too!

Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
3 pts - Winner - Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.73 pts

While Im happy this bet came through, I was a bit sad to see the Lions robbed of a win by some terrible officiating. A perfectly legitimate TD at the end wiped off - they will be seething. Both teams look sloppy at times, but the Lions should have won it.

Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
1 pts - Winner - Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Loss returns 0 pts

Poor game. Matt Moore was awful, as were the Panthers in general. Never bet on a team with no secondary again.

Sunday 12th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
3 pts - Winner - New England Patriots (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.73 pts

While questions remain over the defence, the Patriots offence is unstoppable. I Tom Brady. Great performance by himself and Wes Welker who looked completely healed after his knee injury.

Peyton Manning

For tomorrow nights action. I won't be touching the Jets - Ravens game with a bargepole. Not only is Darrelle Revis back - the pound for pound best player in the NFL - to shutout Anquan Boldin, there's also Rex Ryan's knowledge of Joe Flacco having worked with him before. You think this might make the Jets favourites, but until Sanchez shows me he's over a poor season, he won't be left holding my money. But I will go with:

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
3 pts - Winner - San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

The Chargers are known for their slow starts to seasons under Norv Turner, but even that trend won't stop me betting on them here. My only real concern is that in a similar position last year, they went to Oakland and won without making the spread. However I see them performing a lot better this time round - and that's because of Ryan Mathews. The guy is a stud, and I see him making his impression on the NFL as early as the opening gameweek. He's a dual threat in both his rushing and receiving ability, which will open up the passing game for Philip Rivers, one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. With the best receiving tight end in the business in Antonio Gates, and a core of hungry receivers out to establish themselves as number 1 in the absence of Vincent Jackson (who is over rated anyway), Im pretty sure that they can cover 4.5. I may be guilty of under rating the Chiefs this year, but until they prove me wrong, they'll remain a team with a very poor QB, the worst offensive line in the NFL, no established starting RB and only 1 good WR. If the offene is as poor as I think, they need the D to step up big time, which just won't happen I'm afraid, not until they have another draft in them imo.

x PyRo

Great thread mate, keep up the good work.

fkiely

Agree with Pyro, quite like the NFL myself and you very much seem to know your stuff. Look forward to your future calls.