Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

Peyton Manning

I'm making some slight changes to how I bet. I've noticed that, while Im getting the majority of my bets right, I'm not making a worthwhile profit as the weighting of the points I'm betting isn't working. With that in mind, from now on a lot of my bets will be around the 2-3 points mark. 4 and 5 point bets - very high confidence ones - will be limited until I see an improvement. Having said that, Im happy that most of my bets are right - now to work on the profit! I'll also look to provide more information about the matchups themselves, rather than just who I fancy and why - just for more transparency. This weekends action as follows.

Sunday 19th September 4:15pm ET (9:15pm Irish Time)
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
3 pts - Winner - New England Patriots (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

The Patriots looked like a team setting out to prove their doubters wrong last week. Tom Brady completed 71% of his passes for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns against a team who last season only gave up an average of 203 yards and just over 1 touchdown per game. Defensively, the Jets are much more troublesome prospect with Darrelle Revis likely to shut out Randy Moss to a large extent. Good thing then that Wes Welker looks fit as a fiddle, with no sign of that nasty injury that kept him out of the playoffs. He was targeted 8 times for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Randy Moss occupying Revis, the job of stopping Welker will be left to new Jets arrivals Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson. Both CBs were pinpointed as a weak link by Joe Flacco against the Ravens last week, and were targeted very often, allowing Anquan Boldin to pick up over 100 yards. Although Welker is a different type of receiver to Boldin, and will operate out of the slot a lot more, don't be surprised to see him reach a ton either. Defensively, the Patriots are walking wounded, but two things should be considered. Firstly, the 24 points gained by the Bengals are misleading. At one stage, the score was 31-3. The majority of the Bengals' scores came when the game was beyond them as a competition and only dignity was at stake. (It's also worth noting that the Patriots dropped the ball in the red zone 4 times, something that Belichick will cut out of their game for next week, so they could have scored so much more than they did). Secondly, the Jets don't have a passing game as good as the Bengals, not that they are a pinacle of the passing game or anything. Mark Sanchez has not progressed anything like I thought he would during off season. Sure, he might be better at reading defences, and he probably understands the pro game a thousands time than he did last year, but they failed to grab a single TD against the Ravens, only notching 3 field goals. One of those field goals came from a gifted Joe Flacco fumble on the Ravens opening drive. The Patriots defence looked so much better against the Bengals than we expected. Taking all the above into consideration, the game winning factors for the Patriots include:

• Battle of the Quarterbacks - I said last week that Joe Flacco's superiority over Mark Sanchez would swing the game towards the Ravens. This week, replace Joe Flacco with Tom Brady, and it's a no contest.
• The Jets gave up far too many penalties against the Ravens - 14 for 125 yards to be exact. Doing the same against the Patriots and handing yards to a Brady led offence would be the dumbest thing in the world. How much can they cut out in under a week?
• The Jets are without elite defensive tackle Kris Jenkins. He's a huge loss to team that lacks leadership, something that a lot of people picked up on during the televised access to their training camp. Jenkins was the most vocal member of the team - he's a huge absence, physically and mentally.
• While the Jets passing game is practically non-existent (Sanchez had less than 50% pass completion for a paltry 74 yards last week), the running game is struggling too. Shonn Greene fumbled twice - a big no-no given Rex Ryan's tantrums about protecting the ball during preseason - and got benched as a result. The Patriots were 5th in the league in forced fumbles last year, and handled a good Bengals running game brilliantly last week.

Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
1 pts - Winner - Miami Dolphins (+6.0) @ 5/6 (Bet365)

The Vikings were worrying on offence last week. Brett Favre could have done with sticking around over the summer, because without Sidney Rice stretching the defence, he looked very average against the Saints. He threw for 310 yards (28 completions), 1 TD and 2 interception against them in the NFC Championship Game in January. That became 171 yards (15 completions), 1 touchdown and 1 interception last Thursday. Is this solely down to the absence of Sidney Rice? Partly, but also factor in the beating Favre's ankle and leg took in that game, and the lack of a training camp/preseason he's had to ensure it's in the best condition it can be. He's taken two injections to lubricate his ankle in the last couple of months - he's nowhere near 100%. His lack of connection with Percy Harvin in Rice's absence must be a big worry to Vikes fans. Harvin had 5 receptions for 38 yards in January - he only had 1 reception for 12 yards this time. As a matter of fact, no wide receiver for the Vikings had more than 1 reception, ad none of them amassed more than 12 yards. Favre was reliant upon his running backs and tight ends all night. AP can have a good game, but unless Favre and his receivers click, he'll have to beat the Dolphins by himself. As for Miami, a lot of people will have looked at their scraping past Buffalo as a cause for concern. But considering that's their first victory in Buffalo in 6 years, and you get a sense of progress. They didn't blow anybody away, but their running game could rebound against a Vikes defence that struggled to stop Pierre Thomas last Thursday. With Brandon Marshall providing the deep threat, the Vikings will have to be careful not to pay too much attention in solely flushing out the running game. A key factor here that has been picked up on by several experts is the psychological battle. The Vikings gave their absolute all in attempting to revenge their NFC Championship defeat to the Saints, but came up short. After putting in so much effort for that game, will they be able to motivate themselves properly for a home game against a sleeper-team Dolphins? The Fins themselves will be looking to expel any doubt people will have picked up on from that Bills game, and a win in Minnesota would do just the trick.



Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Benfals
3 pts - Winner - Baltimore Ravens (-2.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

The Bengals struggled against the Patriots running game last week, which is hardly noted for it's ruthlessness. So against Ray Rice this week, they could have monstrous problems. Joe Flacco is no Tom Brady, but he's a good passer and with an elite running back to draw attention away from him combined with the weapons he has available (Boldin, Mason, Heap, Houshmanzadeh), he could easily carve the Bengals up for the same yardage, or higher, that Brady did. Defensively, the Ravens trump the Patriots, so Carson Palmer will struggle big time. His statistics against the Patriots lie - most of his yardage came when the game was up and the Patriots had already won, so don't expect him to come close to a defence that kept Mark Sanchez below 75 yards last week. Fact is, football comes down to one team putting up more points than other. In this match-up, I just can't see how the Bengals will put up points against the Ravens. On the flipside, I can't see how the Ravens wont put up points.

jacool

Patriots 34, Jets 10 Patriots -3 (5 Units)
24-10, Patriots.
Patriots
Patriots 27 Jets 10
New England – 1.5

Dolphins 20, Vikings 17 Dolphins +6 (8 Units) (this guy's BET of SEPTEMBER!)
27-21, Vikings.
Vikings
Vikings 28 Dolphins 9
Minnesota – 5.5

No consensus on this game though !
Ravens 27, Bengals 16 Ravens -2.5 (4 Units)
20-14, Bengals.
Bengals
Ravens 17 Bengals 14
Cincinnati + 1.5 and UNDER

Peyton Manning

8 points on Miami? Jaysus, I like the spread but I wouldn't be that confident! I was flirting between 1 and 2 points, and stuck with 1 because I don't like betting too high on teams that are listed as underdogs. I would also have like to have gotten to that spread on the Pats game that your tipsters have, when it was 1.5, just for added security. Oh well, Tom Terrific will deliver Im sure

Couple of bets I've stuck on for tomorrow's college football:

Houston @ UCLA
3 pts - Winner - Houston (-3.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

UCLA are in trouble at the moment. They're coming off of hosting Stanford last week, where they were shut out completely in a 35-0 drubbing in front of their own fans. UCLA can't take advantage of any atmosphere benefits as students have yet to return to classes, so tickets have nowhere near sold out. Their QB Kevin Prince has had a torrid start to the season because he is not 100% fit, and their running game has not been effective at all. Houston, although missing their star QB Case Keenum, have too much for UCLA. They have the most points scored of any team in the nation, and are ranked 23rd in rushing yards with an average of 230 a game. Their backup QB Colton Turner stepped in last week, completing 9 of 10 passes for 70 yards and a TD, so Im confident that he can get the job done even if you ignore the phenomenal running threat.

Utah @ New Mexico
3 pts - Winner - Utah (-23.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

It's a big spread, but trust me, it reflects the gulf in class between these 2 teams. New Mexico are awful. Oregon beat them 72-0 on opening weekend, and Texas Tech beat them 52-17 last week. They just leak points, and #14 ranked Utah shouldn't have any problems covering the spread here. Their QB Jordan Wynn is questionable to play, but when your backup Terrence Cain is 8-1 as a starter, you don't really have too much to worry about. This one will get real ugly.

My weekly 1pt accumulator this week is going on college football also, as I dont like a whole lot else in the NFL apart from the picks I've posted.

Boise State (-20.5) @ Wyoming @ 5/8
Alabama (-23.5) @ Duke @ 10/11
Arkansas (+2.5) @ Georgia @ 10/11

1 pts@ 4.84/1 (Bet365)

Peyton Manning

In play bet:

3 pts - Iowa (+14.5) @ Arizona @ 5/6

Peyton Manning

Houston @ UCLA
3 pts - Winner - Houston (-3.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Lose returns 0 pts

What can I say. One team got a hell of a lot better, the other team got a hell of a lot worse. Houston completely imploded, UCLA rose to the occasion. These things happen!

Utah @ New Mexico
3 pts - Winner - Utah (-23.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.73 pts

Utah killed it, and ended up winning 56-14. Never in doubt

Boise State (-20.5) @ Wyoming @ 5/8
Alabama (-23.5) @ Duke @ 10/11
Arkansas (+2.5) @ Georgia @ 10/11

1 pts@ 4.84/1 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.84 pts

I do love it when an accumulator comes in! Boise and Alabama killed it in their respective ties. The Arkansas - Georgia game was a classic though. I said in the American Football forum that Ryan Mallett was too good to bet against, and wouldn't you know it, he has the game of his career - throwing the game winning TD with seconds remaining on the clock.

In play bet:

3 pts - Iowa (+14.5) @ Arizona @ 5/6

Win returns 5.5 pts

Arizona took an early 14-0 lead, and I jumped on this bet when it was 21-7. Considering Arizona's scores came off of a return and a blocked field goal, the in running spread was ridiculous. Iowa are a top ranked team, there was no way they were going down by that much. In the end, they lost by by a touchdown with about 1 minute left on the clock. Great game.

A good day me thinks

10 pts bet, 17.1 pts returned.

I'll post bank totals, points bet, profit etc. every month from now on. From here, I'll just keep track of picks against the spread on a game by game basis.

NCAA
Picks Against The Spread

Wins: 6 ... Losses: 1

NFL
Picks Against The Spread

Wins: 6 ... Losses: 5

Headshot

Arch knows his NFL

nice wins

Peyton Manning

Mixed day today, but came up in profit so that's all that matters

Sunday 19th September 4:15pm ET (9:15pm Irish Time)
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
3 pts - Winner - New England Patriots (-3.0) @ Evens (Bet365)

Loss returns 0 pts

Disappointed as a Pats fan, gutted as a gambler. Patriots were just very flat, and I was very disappointed with the defence. Jets stepped up to the plate, not much else I can say.

Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
1 pts - Winner - Miami Dolphins (+6.0) @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Win returns 1.83 pts

Happy with this, especially as I was the only person in the American Football forum to pick the Dolphins. It played about pretty much how I expected. Favre struggled, the passing game just didn't materialise, and overall, the Dolphins wanted it more. Nice one.

Sunday 19th September 1:00pm ET (6:00pm Irish Time)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Benfals
3 pts - Winner - Baltimore Ravens (-2.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Loss returns 0 pts

Joe Flacco sucks. It'll be a long time before I bet on the Ravens again.

Now I hope you don't mind, but I posted a few bets in the AF forum for today aswell. Two of them, I actually thought I posted here so a bit peeved to see I didnt. The third I just never thought of posting here, because as the Colts - Giants match was the only one I wouldn't be watching on my laptop, I was in a rush (I can't use both laptop and TV at the same time - screen issues so I use my TV as a monitor!). Hope you don't mind me including them here. For what it's worth, had they lost, I still would have brought them up.

3 pts - Ray Rice over 72.5 rushing yards @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.5 pts

You can see the original post for that bet, and the following one, here just in case you want to double check it's legit. I figured that seeing as the Bengals gave up around 100 yards on the ground against the Pats, who have a pretty poor running game, that Ray Rice could do some damage and it came up.

3 pts - Carson Palmer under 240.5 passing yards @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.5 pts

Again, this was looking at what happened last week. Palmer was poor against the Pats when the game mattered, only clocking up most of his yards when it was beyond the Bengals. Against a brilliant Ravens defence, he never stood a chance of eclipsing that.

3 pts - Eli Manning under 247.5 passing yards @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.5 pts

You can see the original post in the AF forum here. Eli barely covered the same spread against an awful Panthers secondary, and with the pass rush that the Colts would generate, I knew he wouldn't get a whole heap. Plus, I figured that the Giants would want to run the ball considering how poor the Colts defended against the Texans running game last week (although for some strange reason, this never materialised - Giants weren't too keen on running early which prob cost them the game).

I've also been chopping and changing on how I keep track of my bets, but I've decided upon the following format and will leave it at this:


Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 7 wins, 3 losses, + 36.27% profit

Eire-Dearg

36%? Niiiice!

El Horseboxo

Nice return on week 2. I never really get that involved in the NFL until week 3 other than a few interest bets. Been a few shockers so far. Any fancy for the game tonight? Thinking of taking the Saints -5 and Colston anytime TD scorer. He's Brees favorite red zone target man and after not getting a score last week i expect him to be hungry for one against a horrible looking 49'ers D last week. I expect SF to improve a bit on both sides of the ball tonight but the Saints should still have too much for them.

Also f you do in play bets. Try PP as they are very slow at updating the lines. Haven't taken advantage of it this season myself but i have seen many opporunities where they have the overs and hadicap lines way off in reflection of the live score. Especially in the college ball.

fkiely

Great stuff again fella, keep it up.

Peyton Manning

Cheers lads. There's not much I like tonight. If anything, I'd be leaning towards the 49ers at +5 (although I'd prefer +7.5 under the additional points spread) because home crowds on Monday Night Football play a big role. Singletary will also have verbally beaten his team to a pulp, but I still won't touch it because I just don't have the balls to bet against Drew Brees. There's also not a single player performance bet that entices me into having a flutter.

heavyballs

after the first 2 weeks Arch who do you like the look of for the Super Bowl,i said before i have backed the Ravens but they horrified my this weekend,have a few quid spare this week,might do Chargers @10/1,what do you think.Btw i'm going to do someone so if you really don't fancy the chargers who gets my €50

Peyton Manning

Hard to tell really heavyballs. I'd avoid the Chargers - while they always finish the regular season strongly, they just don't produce in the playoffs. Right now, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a Texans - Packers match up. In Week 1, they had the best rushing game, and in Week 2, they had the best passing game. Coming out on top against the Colts was a big achievement for them - something they historically struggled with - and must have been mentally and physically exhausting, so to follow that up with an overtime win in Washington sends out a huge, huge message. The big concern would be how many yards they've given up through the air, I think it's close to 850 in the two games. The Packers were my preseason favourites, and so far so good. The Vikes going 0-2 in the first 2 weeks gives them huge ground in their division, and if they beating the Bears next week would pretty much establish their dominance in that division.

Like I said, it's really hard to tell because so much can happen before the Superbowl. The Playoffs themselves are pretty unpredictable, but right now I'd hazard a guess at Texans - Packers, with the Packers coming out on top. Why? Houston's secondary would struggle against Rodgers with what he has available to him, and the Packers defence is very strong. That's the only way I can call it after the first 2 weeks, but I wouldn't rule out the Colts, Steelers or the Saints yet either. But at the end of the day if I had €50 that I was forced to bet right now, I'd bet Green Bay Packers.

heavyballs

Ta Arch,will let you know what i do either way.

Peyton Manning

I ended up going with the 49ers +5. Just to avoid allegations of after-timing, here's a screenshot just to back it up. I'm not purposely leaving out any losing bets, as this picture shows the +5 was the only bet I had from the last 24 hours anyway. It was just a 1 point bet, my balance ended in an uneven number so I just had to bet it! I wouldn't have advised others on this bet (see from my previous post I was very reluctant to be betting on this game anyway!)

Screenshot

1 pts - New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers (+5.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 1.91 pts

That finishes off week two, onwards and upwards

Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 8 wins, 3 losses, + 38.3% profit

Juwwi

Hi Archi you definately know your stuff and being a newbie to nfl any help l can get on betting the better.
Would you mind posting any tips you put up in the american football forum here aswell tho,l spotted your eli tip there but missed the other ones .
thanks alot keep up the good work.

Peyton Manning

robbie1977 wrote: »

Hi Archi you definately know your stuff and being a newbie to nfl any help l can get on betting the better.
Would you mind posting any tips you put up in the american football forum here aswell tho,l spotted your eli tip there but missed the other ones .
thanks alot keep up the good work.

Will do Robbie, cheers for the kind words. Only reason I didn't put those ones up here is it was gameday, and trying to manage watching 2 games and RedZone Channel using the one TV was one heck of a challenge! I'll make sure to have them up here with plenty of notice in future, glad the Eli bet came in for you!

Peyton Manning

This weekend's action that I'll be betting on...

TCU @ SMU
2.5 pts - Winner - TCU (-16.5) @ 10/13 (Bet365)

TCU have gone about their business as well as can be expected this season. While they probably should have beat Oregon State by more than they did, they proceeded to crush Tennessee Tech and Baylor. Andrew Dalton at QB is practically a veteran at this stage with 32 wins under his belt and was almost flawless last weekend, but TCU's biggest threat comes on the ground, where they are ranked 9th in the nation. Ed Wesley is their feature running back, and has an average of 8.2 yards per carry so far this year. Of course, Dalton himself has some scrambling skills also. SMU on the other hand have been the definition of 'meh'. The fact they only beat an awful Washington state by 2 TDs is more damning than anything, and they weren't exactly mind blowing against UAB the previous week either. I like Dalton to guide TCU to a comfortable win here, and they should cover the spread.

Alabama @ Arkansas
4.5 pts - Winner - Alabama (-7.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Arkansas were kind to me last week, and Ryan Mallett is pretty much a hero and one of, if not the best QB in college football. However, in Alabama, they're up against one of the great modern college football teams. This team is hideously talented. Mark Ingram is an absolute stud and looked as healthy as ever in last week's rout of Duke. Even their second string RB Trent Richardson would be an undoubted starter on any other team in the nation. Greg McElroy at QB is a born winner, I think the stat doing the rounds about him is that he hasn't lost a game since middle school. I prefer the one about him already having a National Championship ring, as do the rest of his team mates. 2 weeks ago, I would have given Arkansas a chance, but with Mark Ingram and Marcell Dareus having game time under their belts, I don't hold much hope for Mallett and co. I think Bama will beat the spread easily, but this one has the potential to be an absolute cracker of a game. Go out of your way to make sure you see this game - you're seeing some of the best in the business if you do.

Stanford @ Notre Dame
4 pts - Winner - Stanford (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I can't see how Notre Dame can be mentally prepared for this. They're coming off two straight HUGELY mentally exhausting games against Michigan and Michigan State, losing both. The manner in which they lost last week was such a sucker punch, they will still be hurting. They're a team who know how to put points on the board, but unfortunately they just cant keep opposing teams from doing the same. And even more unfortunately, this week they hose the Andrew Luck led Stanford, 3rd in the nation for points scored. Luck is one of the top rated QBs in college football, and could find himself as a first round pick in next year's NFL draft. He has 10 touchdowns on the year already, and should add to that tally at Notre Dame. They will be all out for the win here, because tought tests in Oregon and USC lie in wait in the weeks following this match up. Again, this game could be a cracker.

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
1 pts - Winner - Dallas Cowboys (+3.0) @ 4/5 (Bet365)

I think this is the week Tony Romo gets it together. It might not be pretty, but I think he can pull it off all the same. The Texans have been impressive so far, but their secondary gave up a huge 850 yards in their opening two games combined. They'll also be exhausted after their overtime battle with the Redskins in Washington last week. I guess what this comes down to is whether I actually believe a team with the Cowboys' talent would start this season 0-3, and I just don't see it happening. This is where they get their first win imo, although a spread-beating loss wouldn't break my heart!

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
3 pts - Winner - Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) @ 11/10 (Bet365)

This is exactly the match-up Brett Favre needs coming off a poor performance in losing to the Dolphins. The Lions secondary is scandalously bad - heck they even let Michael Vick have his way with them through the air last week. Favre should beat up on them this week, and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, forget about it. They need this win, because a 0-3 start would be almost impossible to claw back from the winner of the Packers - Bears game. Last week's loss to the Dolphins also tips the spread in our favour here, so I really like this one.

Peyton Manning

Archimedes wrote: »

TCU @ SMU
2.5 pts - Winner - TCU (-16.5) @ 10/13 (Bet365)

TCU have gone about their business as well as can be expected this season. While they probably should have beat Oregon State by more than they did, they proceeded to crush Tennessee Tech and Baylor. Andrew Dalton at QB is practically a veteran at this stage with 32 wins under his belt and was almost flawless last weekend, but TCU's biggest threat comes on the ground, where they are ranked 9th in the nation. Ed Wesley is their feature running back, and has an average of 8.2 yards per carry so far this year. Of course, Dalton himself has some scrambling skills also. SMU on the other hand have been the definition of 'meh'. The fact they only beat an awful Washington state by 2 TDs is more damning than anything, and they weren't exactly mind blowing against UAB the previous week either. I like Dalton to guide TCU to a comfortable win here, and they should cover the spread.

Win returns 4.42 pts

Talk about your close calls - TCU won by 17 in the end! What makes this win even sweeter is the fact that I didn't like the -17.5 spread, so I went into additional spreads to get -16.5. Such is the margin between failure and success

Peyton Manning

Quick bet here...

2 pts - Arizona (-6) @ 10/11 (bet365)

No time to post why as Im in the middle of watching 2 games here, but suffice to say I think Arizona at home should cover this spread comfortably.

Peyton Manning

Almost forgot, I put a 3 pts bet on Boise State - Oregon State (over 56.0) @ 10/11 after the Bama game finished. In the second quarter at the moment, so hopefully it comes up. Props to D3PO for pointing it out on his log, I wasn't looking at many overs/unders this week until I saw it.

Edit: Screenshot (Just in case!)

Peyton Manning

Alabama @ Arkansas
4.5 pts - Winner - Alabama (-7.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Loss returns 0 pts

Alabama won, but only by 4 points. Disappointing for punters, but I'll live. Greg McElroy threw some uncharacteristic interceptions which in the end cost them the spread, but I'm sure Nick Saban won't mind as long as he leaves Arkansas with the win.

Stanford @ Notre Dame
4 pts - Winner - Stanford (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 7.64 pts


Happy with this, I had a feeling the spread was way off when I placed the bet. People are sleeping on Stanford, and quite frankly, Notre Dame didn't have a chance in this game. Andrew Luck is just too damn good.

2 pts - Arizona (-6) @ 10/11 (bet365)

Loss returns 0 pts


I don't know what's more upsetting here - the loss, or the fact this was the worst game of football I've ever seen. Arizona snatched it at the death, but that doesn't rescue this game from Room 101.

3 pts Boise State - Oregon State (over 56.0) @ 10/11

Win returns 5.73 pts


Boise State are a team that just love putting points on the board. Well, every team is a team that loves putting point on the board, but the Broncos are one of the best equipped to do so. I wasn't going to bet on this, the spread seemed about right so I didn't dare call it, but when I saw that the unders/overs were only 56 I had to jump on it. Nice when impulse bets come off like that!

Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 8 wins, 3 losses, + 38.3% profit

Week Three: 3 wins, 2 losses, + 11.1% profit

Another bet for tomorrow...

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
4 pts - Winner - Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I don't like Michael Vick. Sure, he's a hell of an athlete, but he's a poor passer and his accuracy is garbage. Having said that, the Eagles still have too many playmakers for the Jags to come out on top here. The Jaguars were terrible last week, and turned the ball over at will. Apart from Maurice Jones Drew, I just don't see who can cause the Eagles any real problems, whereas the Eagles have Vick on the ground if not through the air, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek. They should cover.

Peyton Manning

Almost forgot my weekly accumulator.

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ St Louis Rams
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0) @ Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)

1 pts @ 7.7/1

L'prof

Just as a matter of interest, when you say 11.1% profit this week, is that ROI? Would it be possible to include a total for profit in points too? Good stuff so far, keep it up man.

Peyton Manning

L'prof wrote: »

Just as a matter of interest, when you say 11.1% profit this week, is that ROI? Would it be possible to include a total for profit in points too? Good stuff so far, keep it up man.

Yup, it's return on investment. Forget the exact figures but its something close to bet 16 this week, return just under 18 so far, which if my trust maths skills haven't let me down is the 11.1% profit. I'll do up a points returned for each week after today's set of matches!

The Belcher

Archimedes wrote: »

This weekend's action that I'll be betting on...

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
3 pts - Winner - Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) @ 11/10 (Bet365)

This is exactly the match-up Brett Favre needs coming off a poor performance in losing to the Dolphins. The Lions secondary is scandalously bad - heck they even let Michael Vick have his way with them through the air last week. Favre should beat up on them this week, and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, forget about it. They need this win, because a 0-3 start would be almost impossible to claw back from the winner of the Packers - Bears game. Last week's loss to the Dolphins also tips the spread in our favour here, so I really like this one.

Bravo Sir, you have helped ease my losses this weekend, now if the Redskins can beat the 3.5 point handicap I'd be close to breaking even. Thanks again.

Peyton Manning

The Belcher wrote: »

Bravo Sir, you have helped ease my losses this weekend, now if the Redskins can beat the 3.5 point handicap I'd be close to breaking even. Thanks again.

That's what I like to here. Im counting on the Redskins to win too, but what a terrible start. Down by 14 already!

Juwwi

Was on minnesota aswell archie

lm waiting for the colts -5.5 my own pick.

are you american archie?

your knowledge seems to scale nearly every team in college football aswell as nfl.

Peyton Manning

robbie1977 wrote: »

Was on minnesota aswell archie

lm waiting for the colts -5.5 my own pick.

are you american archie?

your knowledge seems to scale nearly every team in college football aswell as nfl.

Nice one robbie! Was a close call though wasn't it? 2 interceptions in the red zone on the Lions final 2 drives! :eek::o

Nope, not American, just unemployed with far too much time on my hands :pac:

Juwwi

did'nt get to see it was watching www.nfl.com/scores
and noticed they were in the red zones didnt know it was intercepted twice :eek:

overs in the patriots matches seem to be becoming up every week.