Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

Peyton Manning

Some NFL bets for the upcoming weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans
4 pts - Winner - Texans (-4.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

One area I seem to be doing quite well in is looking at the mental battle between teams, and I see a huge advantage for the Texans here. They went from being an AFC contender to being chastised by the press in the space of a week, thanks to a big loss to New York. But consider this - Andre Johnson was not 100% which ate into both his and Schaub's productivity, and the Giants defence are top dollar again and look like one of the best in the league at the moment. The Texans will be reeling with both themselves and the media for the scrutiny, so expect a big rebound in front of their own fans. As for the Chiefs, gone is their unbeaten record which really made them look better than they are. They're now 3-1, but look closer at those 3 wins. An opening home Monday Night Football game against a historically poor-starting below-par Chargers which was pretty much their Superbowl, a narrow win over a Cleveland team which rarely puts in any effort against non divisional opponents, and an easy home win over an awful 49ers who were coming off the back of a short week having given everything and came up short against the Saints on a Monday. The combined record of the 3 teams the Chiefs have beat? 3-12. Very flattering indeed. As for their current state, they had 2 weeks to prepare for the Colts, and gave absolutely everything they had and came up short. Another game on the road at the Texans will be beyond them, so I really love this bet.

San Diego Chargers @ St Louis Rams
2 pts - Winner - Rams (+8.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

It's crisis mode in San Diego. Not only are they 2-3 despite Rivers having statistically the best offence and 2nd best defence in the league, but they also suffered 2 of those losses against divisional rivals. Never before has the importance of special teams been so blatant - the Chargers have been crushed by the Chiefs, Raiders and Seattle on this side of the ball already this year. Now, they look at the Rams and see what they think should be a straight forward victory, considering Bradford and co. were blown out by the Lions last week. Ignore that result, it was blown out of proportion because the Rams lost their number 1 WR mid-game and had no plan B in place. Also consider the Chargers statistic glory, and consider that has only come against the Chiefs, Raiders, Seahawks, Cardinals and Jaguars, and they lost three of those. They are very poor this year, and they haven't even faced a decent team yet. With New England around the corner, the Chargers might be complacent away to the Rams where even the Redskins were sent home with their tail between their lefs. This game should be a close one, but the spread here should not be even half of what it is, so I have to go with the Rams.

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
2 pts - Winner - Falcons (+2.5) @ 20/21 (Bet365)

The Falcons are hot right now, and Michael Turner is 100% again. They've shown they have balls by taking the Steelers to overtime, and getting last gasp wins over the Saints and the 49ers the following week (the 49ers are poor, but having given so much against the Saints 7 days earlier, a win was a big result for the Falcons). I look at who had big games against the Eagles last week - Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis - and I see that in Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons actually have better players at each position who can do more damage, added to the fact that Matt Ryan will not give up the ball as easily as Alex Smith.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
1 pts - Winner - Jaguars (+3.0) @ 4/5 (Bet365)

One of the (only) good things about being a Jaguars fan is you get at least 3 Superbowl games a year. Sadly, none of them are for the actual Lombardi trophy, but the Jaguars still treat home games against divisional rivals like the big one. How else do you explain them getting crushed by the Eagles one week, and going onto beat the Colts the following Sunday? As for the Titans themselves, a good win against Dallas (which I backed might I add!) could make them complacent for their second road game in a row. Don't be surprised to see the Jags get something out of this game. I'm only making this a 1 point bet, because the thought of the Jags beating the spread and winning three games in a row is ludicrous, but stranger things have happened.

I haven't looked at the weekend's college football yet, so I'll get a couple of bets in for that tomorrow.

eagle eye

DOC09UNAM wrote: »

Didn't realise you were this on the ball when it came to betting for nfl arch, might start following you this week.

You should check out this thread. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056023391

Peyton Manning

Always nice to have people following this thread looking for advice

El Horseboxo

Might follow your NFL bets this week since you're doing well. Been having a bit of success on some of the college games i liked and just the odd NFL bet. But haven't got into it serious this season yet. It's usually been my most profitable sport. Liking the Rams and Texans bets at first glance anyways. Keep up the good work.

Peyton Manning

Gone for two doubles in College Football this weekend because there's not a whole lot that I fancy tbh.

Utah (-20.5) @ Wyoming
Boise State (-39.5) @ San Jose State
1 pts @ 13/5

Miami (-19.5) @ Duke
Wake Forrest @ Virginia Tech (-22.5)
1 pts @ 13/5

Peyton Manning

To go with the above doubles, I'll be placing a bet on each game individually, as well as one extra.

Utah @ Wyoming
3.5 pts - Winner - Utah (-22.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Wyoming have faced 3 ranked teams this year, and have gotten crushed each time. Texas beat them by 27 in Week 2, Boise State beat them by 45 in Week 3 and heck, TCU shut them out 45-0 last week. Add Utah - the third highest scoring offence in the nation and 15th meanest defence - and this one spells another crushing defeat for Wyoming.

Boise State @ San Jose State
1.5 pts - Winner - Boise State (-39.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Pretty big spread here, but for good reasons. First, Boise have the 4th highest scoring offence in the nation. Second, Boise have the 11th meanest defence in the nation. Third, Boise have faced three similar opponents this season (i.e. unranked and generally worthless teams) and won by 45 points, 59 points and 43 points respectively. Fourth, Boise will be pissed - I mean really pissed - that they dropped to third in the rankings despite still being undefeated and running up scores like clockwork. Fifth, that infamous James Madison victory over Virginia Tech means Boise have to put up huge numbers every week if they want to go to the BCS Championship. So far, that's exactly what they've been doing. Sixth, Kellen Moore. 1,336 yards, 14 touchdowns and a 67% completion rate. Seventh, San Jose State suck. Bama beat them by 45 and Utah beat them by 53. Boise's offence will do the very same, probably better. Enough said.

Miami @ Duke
2.0 pts - Winner - Miami (-19.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

The best summary of Duke is a post I read on a forum a few weeks back that simply said "Duke have a football team!?". They don't. Sure, they have a bunch of guys who go out there every week with pads and jerseys, but willing participants does not a team make. This group of individuals have lost Wake Forest, Army and Maryland which says enough. We're getting a lovely spread here because the Hurricanes lost to South Florida last week, and lost hard. That means they need to win big here, and everything I've heard this week suggests Jacory Harris will be fine for this game. Miami have struggled to put up big numbers this year, but that should change against a Duke side who give up an average of 40 a game.

Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech
2.5 pts - Winner - Virginia Tech (-22.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Virginia Tech have done their utmost to put the James Madison incident (as it will forever be known) behind them, winning 4 on the bounce and beating some decent teams in the process. Wake Forest, on the other hand, or not a decent team. After beating Presbyterian and Duke - the equivalent being rewarded for staying inside the lines in a colouring book - they've gone and lost 4 on the trot. Staying within 23 of VA Tech on the road is way beyond them, and Tyrod Taylor should have a field day under centre.

Mississippi State @ Florida
1.0 pts - Winner - Florida (-7.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Florida are hurting right now. They lost a close game to LSU, and got crushed by the champs in Alabama. They'll want to regain their pride and inflict a heavy defeat on Mississippi State in front of the television cameras, and Im sure they'll do it while covering this spread with homefield advantage.

El Horseboxo

Can't say anything bad about those picks. Most have been leans for me. Flordia, V Tech and Boise look really solid and i should end up punting on those too. Good luck.

darsar

Can the NCAA be done on betfair, can't see it...

El Horseboxo

Yeah just click on the sports tab at the top. Then pick American Football on the left and you'll see NCAAF appear below it.

darsar

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Yeah just click on the sports tab at the top. Then pick American Football on the left and you'll see NCAAF appear below it.

Cheers, it's on the mobile version of the betfair website but not on the app.

paddyh

Hi Archie, I followed your tip on Utah but managed to get on at -20.5. They are the last result I need to come through on a five fold accum, sorry to put you on the spot here but how confident are you about them winning ? I can probably lay them off if needs be but I'd prefer to let it run, just want to hear your opinion. Keep up the good work on the blog

Peyton Manning

paddyh wrote: »

Hi Archie, I followed your tip on Utah but managed to get on at -20.5. They are the last result I need to come through on a five fold accum, sorry to put you on the spot here but how confident are you about them winning ? I can probably lay them off if needs be but I'd prefer to let it run, just want to hear your opinion. Keep up the good work on the blog

I'd be very confident, and I've reflected that by betting more points on Utah covering the spread than any of my other college bets this weekend. I wouldn't think you'd have to lay it, but of course that's up to you for your own sense of security - whatever you do I hope it comes through for you!

paddyh

Archimedes wrote: »

I'd be very confident, and I've reflected that by betting more points on Utah covering the spread than any of my other college bets this weekend. I wouldn't think you'd have to lay it, but of course that's up to you for your own sense of security - whatever you do I hope it comes through for you!

Thanks, that's good enough for me I'm going to let it run !

Fingers crossed for both of us, do you know if I'd be able to find a stream for the game ?

Peyton Manning

paddyh wrote: »

Thanks, that's good enough for me I'm going to let it run !

Fingers crossed for both of us, do you know if I'd be able to find a stream for the game ?

It's listed to be streamed here so hopefully that works once the game starts. If not, I'll have a root around some of my usual spots and see what I can find and post it here.

Peyton Manning

Wow, Miami are lame.

Sir Vival

This is quickly becoming one of my favourite logs to look at and get tips from. Great write ups that are really interesting to read.

Looking like a great call on the tech game already.

Best of luck with your bets.

Peyton Manning

Sir Vival wrote: »

This is quickly becoming one of my favourite logs to look at and get tips from. Great write ups that are really interesting to read.

Looking like a great call on the tech game already.

Best of luck with your bets.

Cheers man, disappointed Miami didn't cover the spread against Duke of all teams, but it was one of my lower bets so it won't bother me too much. Cannot believe how high scoring this VA Tech game is, 63 points in total already and it's only HT!

eagle eye

I notice you started with a 100 point bank, what is the current balance as its unclear exactly how you are doing right now? You keep putting up % profits or losses but thats based on the amount you have staked on the day.

I'm thinking starting one of these logs myself for NFL only bets.

Peyton Manning

eagle eye wrote: »

I notice you started with a 100 point bank, what is the current balance as its unclear exactly how you are doing right now? You keep putting up % profits or losses but thats based on the amount you have staked on the day.

I'm thinking starting one of these logs myself for NFL only bets.

I haven't updated the bank since preseason tbh, it was far easier just post profit/loss on each weekend's action. It's something I've been meaning to add up actually, since L'prof asked about it a week or two ago so I'll actually jot it all up after either tonight's college games or tomorrow's NFL.

paddyh

Archimedes wrote: »

It's listed to be streamed here so hopefully that works once the game starts. If not, I'll have a root around some of my usual spots and see what I can find and post it here.

Currently showing the Iowa v Michigan game, any luck with other sites ?

paddyh

Found a stream, currently 7-0 up

L'prof

Archimedes wrote: »

I haven't updated the bank since preseason tbh, it was far easier just post profit/loss on each weekend's action. It's something I've been meaning to add up actually, since L'prof asked about it a week or two ago so I'll actually jot it all up after either tonight's college games or tomorrow's NFL.

You'd be amazed how simple this would be if you entered everything into a spreadsheet. If you need a hand in creating one, I'd be more than happy to help.

Peyton Manning

L'prof wrote: »

You'd be amazed how simple this would be if you entered everything into a spreadsheet. If you need a hand in creating one, I'd be more than happy to help.

Crazy thing is, there was a time where I could do anything on Excel, knew all the formulae off by heart and aced the ECDL exam for it. Sadly, that was a good 6 years ago and I've long since forgotten most of it. I'd love your help and appreciate the offer, but to be honest I'm more of a pen and paper sort of guy anyway - real old school - so I'll just give a run through the thread Monday night, jot them all down and break out the old Casio :cool:

Peyton Manning

Oh, and well done on your earner Paddy, Utah done us proud. Drinks are on you this week! :pac:

paddyh

Great tip archie, enjoying the college football so much tonight I put some of the winnings on Ohio +11.5 during the 3rd quarter and it looks like that might come in aswell so its looking like a great night !

L'prof

Archimedes wrote: »

Crazy thing is, there was a time where I could do anything on Excel, knew all the formulae off by heart and aced the ECDL exam for it. Sadly, that was a good 6 years ago and I've long since forgotten most of it. I'd love your help and appreciate the offer, but to be honest I'm more of a pen and paper sort of guy anyway - real old school - so I'll just give a run through the thread Monday night, jot them all down and break out the old Casio :cool:

No bodger, I wouldn't have the patience for that craic though, it'll take ages!!!

Peyton Manning

paddyh wrote: »

Great tip archie, enjoying the college football so much tonight I put some of the winnings on Ohio +11.5 during the 3rd quarter and it looks like that might come in aswell so its looking like a great night !

Nice one mate, had a feeling Ohio State would get back within a score of it alright, never thought to put the Utah winnings on it though! Doh! Looking good so far anyway, should be an exciting finish!

Edit: Ouch, tough break man! At least you held on to some of your winnings so not all bad!

Peyton Manning

Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 8 wins, 3 losses, + 38.3% profit

Week Three: 6 wins, 4 losses, + 24.3% profit

Week Four: 9 wins, 7 losses, + 6.23% profit

Week Five: 3 wins, 2 losses, + 16.25% profit

Week Six: 4 wins, 3 losses, + 43.28% profit

DOC09UNAM

Archimedes wrote: »

Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 8 wins, 3 losses, + 38.3% profit

Week Three: 6 wins, 4 losses, + 24.3% profit

Week Four: 9 wins, 7 losses, + 6.23% profit

Week Five: 3 wins, 2 losses, + 16.25% profit

Week Six: 4 wins, 3 losses, + 43.28% profit

Damn you archi you impressive bástard.

turbobaby

Archimedes wrote: »

Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 8 wins, 3 losses, + 38.3% profit

Week Three: 6 wins, 4 losses, + 24.3% profit

Week Four: 9 wins, 7 losses, + 6.23% profit

Week Five: 3 wins, 2 losses, + 16.25% profit

Week Six: 4 wins, 3 losses, + 43.28% profit

Excellent results there man!