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Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log
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Oh, and I totalled up my bank from the original method I was using to keep track of my success/failure. Currently sitting on 148.97, which is a profit of 48.97. Nearly 30 of that came from this gameweek alone, which shows that a) the new system is much better, and b) I was stupid to keep using the old system for as long as I did
Oh well, that's how you learn I suppose. Onwards and upwards
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Sorry about the delay, the poor little guy needed some cheering up. Let's just say we had a traumatic experience today, involving a vet putting a thermometer where no man wants it go...
But anyway, yeah I do quite like Boise to cover tonight. It's a huge spread, but I fancy them for several reasons. First, they've been favoured by between 38 and 43 points in their last 3 games, and they've covered each time (a cumulative score of 164-14). Second, Boise have beaten Louisiana teach at home by more than 35 the last 4 times they've met on the blue turf. Third, Boise are fresh after the weekend off, and you better believe those guys will have missed playing football this week. Fourth, Boise still need to run up scores - everything is going in their favour since the Virginia Tech - James Madison incident - but there's no way Chris Peterson will allow them to take their foot off the gas and I fully expect them to go to the National Championship Game come New Years. Fifth, it's that hallowed blue turf. Boise just don't do mediocre at home - they've won 58 in a row at home, and although no one is doubting if they'll win tonight, they do love to put on a show for their fans. Sixth, Kellen Moore. 1567 yards, 16 touchdowns. 'Nuff said. Seventh, Boise are untouchable at the moment. They're the 4th highest scoring team in the country, they have the 2nd best statistical defence. They're passing for over 300 yards a game and rushing for over 220. And finally, in the 4 games Boise have faced against non ranked opposition this year, they've won by 45, 59, 43 and 48. Lousiana have done well to win 2 in a row - I think they'll be brought back down to earth with a bang tonight, and a shutout for Boise would not surprise me. I don't like big spreads, but how can I not like this one given all those reasons?
2 pts - Boise State (-37.5) @ 5/6(PaddyPower)0 -
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Cheers man, I had a better one that I had to look for because the original one I posted went awfully jumpy, but then it went off air just before half time.
Unlucky with the missed FG. Had their starting kicker not been injured, you'd have beaten the handicap
Edit: Fantastic quality stream man, thanks a lot!0 -
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Note to self: Do not bet on midweek games
Anywho, back to the new system that did well last weekend, and we have another monster weekend of college football ahead of us. In what ESPN have labelled Roadblock Weekend (every weekend seems to have a title these days), many of the top ranked teams face tricky games on the road. I've included 3 of these teams in my picks this week. You may notice that I've buried the hatchet with Bet365. Suffice to say, it only took one week of dealing with PaddyPower to realise that they are even bigger assholes, and their services on American Football are fairly limited. So lets begin.
Michigan (-3) @ Penn State
Utah (-7) @ Air Force
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)
Denard Robinson is healthy again, and after two straight losses, Michigan are going to get back on track over Penn State, the epitome of inconsistency. It's not Robinson's freakish athletic ability that sold me on this, but rather the manner of Penn State's victory over Minnesota last week. The Gophers are an awful team - their 1-7 record highlights as much - and Penn State barely overcame them. Heck, Minnesota even outgained Penn State. Robinson who eats yardage for breakfast should have a field day. Meanwhile, Utah continue go under the radar, well, as under the radar as the 8th ranked team in the country can be. They're covering spreads left, right and centre and it should be no different this weekend with what I think is a generous (to the punters) touchdown only spread. They're ranked 24th and 29th in passing and rushing yards respectively, and rank 3rd in both points for per game (48) and points against per game (13). Air Force's rushing game faces it's toughest test yet, and Utah know that's all they have to focus on as Tim Jefferson has been very poor under centre for Air Force - his completion rate is below 50% and has only thrown for 6 touchdowns through 8 games.
UTEP (+2.5) @ Marshall
Stanford (-7) @ Washington
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)
Stanford's only loss this season came against Oregon, so I won't hold that against them. They're still putting up over 40 points a game. This should have been about Andrew Luck vs Jake Locker, but Luck has outperformed his counterpart this year and has in many people's eyes stolen Locker's claim for number 1 QB draft pick next year. Luck will win this game for Stanford simply because Washington's defence is awful. They give up over 33 points a game, and Locker's regression means they're only putting up 24. As for UTEP, the only underdog I'm taking this week because I'm pretty much in shock that they are an underdog to begin with. UTEP have the better passing game, the better rushing game and the better defence. Sure, Marshall have home advantage, but that only helps when your team can give the crowd something to cheer about. Marshall's 1-6 record speaks for itself, UTEP should get the win here, never mind covering the +2.5 spread.
Florida vs Georgia (-2) (neutral venue)
Auburn (-7) @ Ole Miss
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)
I like the Georgia spread. It was -3 at the start of the week, and has fallen down a point now due to people getting carried away with Florida's record against them. These 2 teams could not be further apart form wise - Florida have lost 3 on the trot and look a shadow of the team that went the National Championship Game last year. Well, that's because they are. They miss their superstars now living it up in the NFL, and Meyer is struggling with life post-Tebow. Georgia on the other hand are pumped, winning their last 3 thanks to the returning AJ Green and all his brilliance. Not only is he putting up number (and more importantly, touchdowns) but he's opening up options all over the field for Georgia with the attention defences have to pay to him. I think Georgia should cover here, as they have pretty much a bye week against Idaho State next week, and they'll want momentum going into their clash with Auburn the following week. Speaking of Auburn, allow me to post a picture of Cam Newton.
It's strange, I never thought God would look like that. I figured he'd have long, flowing, silver hair and an impressive beard. But no, he wears pads and he violates defences week after week. Newton is the runaway favourite for the Heisman, and Auburn's final two weeks against Georgia and Alabama give him the perfect platform to seal the deal. I don't think Auburn are in as much danger as ESPN are making out. They have Roadblock Weekend to sell after all, but Ole Miss have lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt this year, and their confidence looks shot. They face their third ranked opponent in a row in the shape of number 1 ranked Auburn, and they must be exhausted after going toe to toe with Alabama's running game and Ryan Mallet's passing game in succession. They only have the little matter of record breaking, 27 touchdown scoring Cam Newton to contend with this week. Auburn should cover. I fail to see how Ole Miss can have the same spread as LSU last week, regardless of where the game is played.0 -
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For all you night owls, New Orleans Saints versus Pittsburgh Steelers live on Channel 4 at midnight tonight.
Hell of a lineup today this weekend actually - if you can watch games online, you'll get to see Packers @ Jets, Vikings @ Patriots, Steelers @ Saints and Texans @ Colts. Thats one of the best lineups I can remember in a single weekend. So excited.El Horseboxo wrote: »Well i'll be praying you have a great day. I seem to have lost a lot of interest in betting in the past week or so. Well more so in researching bets. So i'm just gonna follow all yours today and hope for a weekend like you had in the last one.
Cheers man. Yeah I go through a lull sometimes too. Whenever I dont post a write up, you can tell I just couldn't be arsed! 0 -
Archimedes wrote: »Whenever I dont post a write up, you can tell I just couldn't be arsed!
There will be none of that when you come work for me:p0 -
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