Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

Juwwi

Good luck tonight archie
l have done your points spread doubles.
funds are low so had to cut down this weekend

Peyton Manning

If the Lions hold on here, we're looking at a huge profit! Come onnnnnnnnnnn!

El Horseboxo

I didn't take the Dolphins at scratch in the double you had with the Lions. I changed it for the overs in the Dolphins game and it went under. Should have just stuck with the scratch. 2 should be in the bag and just need the Vikes to beat the spread later.

Peyton Manning

McNabb sacked on 4th down, get the **** in!!

Peyton Manning

Ndamukong Suh recovers the fumble for a TD!!!!!!! YES!

Juwwi

Overtime would be nice in the patriots game

Peyton Manning

robbie1977 wrote: »

Overtime would be nice in the patriots game

As long as it stays as it is with the Pats ahead by 3, we're good. Even another Pats FG turns the Packers +6 into a winning single, so here's hoping. Mind you, as a Pats fan, it's a win-win situation!

Peyton Manning

Oh well, the ruthless Patriots deny me the dream weekend. No point getting greedy though, delighted with this weekend considering how things were looking yesterday.

Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 8 wins, 3 losses, + 38.3% profit

Week Three: 6 wins, 4 losses, + 24.3% profit

Week Four: 9 wins, 7 losses, + 6.23% profit

Week Five: 3 wins, 2 losses, + 16.25% profit

Week Six: 7 wins, 7 losses, + 2.32% profit

Week Seven: 5 wins, 5 losses, + 84% profit

Week Eight: 6 wins, 9 losses, + 40.4% profit

Starting Bank: 100 pts
Current Bank: 173 pts
Profit: + 73 pts

gnolan

Nice job Arch. Your selections tonight saved me from a fair auld shitty week for my selections.

Any fancies for the other two games tonight?

Peyton Manning

gnolan wrote: »

Nice job Arch. Your selections tonight saved me from a fair auld shitty week for my selections.

Any fancies for the other two games tonight?

Not really (I assume you mean tonight and tomorrow though!). Two games I just don't want to call. Tonight's is a 50/50 call imo, the spread of 1 (there was originally no spread) says as much. Tomorrow, I fancy the Colts but don't know if they'll cover the spread or not.

One thing I do fancy is Mike Wallace anytime TD scorer. Just watching the end of the Cardinals - Bucs game here, so I'll decide whether I go with it or not in a little while.

gnolan

Yeah, meant tomorrow morning alright. I'll be watching the Colts game anyway. The default spread on Bet365 is -5.5 at the moment.

Anyways, fair play with tonight's selections, the log is looking impressive

Peyton Manning

Im gonna avoid putting any money on the game tonight. While I typically like Mike Wallace to grab a TD - he's had two in the two games that Roethlisberger has been back - the Saints don't give up much through the air. They've only given up 6 passing touchdowns through 8 games - third best in the league - and only give up an average of 179 yards a game - again, the third best in the league. Having said that, Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer are out for the Saints which are huge losses. Still, Im gonna resist and just enjoy this game for the spectacle it should be. We'll be back in action next weekend

L'prof

Great selections man, not sure if I got the same prices as you, but I made about 54% profit following you yesterday, thanks.

Peyton Manning

Decided tonight's game was too tempting to pass up, and I have a nice bit of profit to play with so why not!

3 pts - Reggie Wayne anytime TD @ 4/6
1.5 pts - Peyton Manning over 305 @ 5/7
1.5 pts - Pierre Garcon anytime TD @ 11/10

Texans - Colts match ups are historically close, so I'm not going to touch the point spread. I'd be about 60-40 in favour of the Colts covering, but that's not enough in a divisional rivalry like this. But there is some value to be found tonight. First off, Reggie Wayne anytime TD. He hasn't grabbed a TD in 4 games, but Reggie is due one tonight against the worst pass defence in the league. The Texans are the only team to give up an average of over 300 yards a game, which is also pretty much why Im going with Manning on the overs (that, and his average this season also eclipses tonight's overs). The Texans have also given up 14 passing touchdowns through 6 games this year. Fact of the matter is, they're not just facing Peyton Manning tonight. They're facing Peyton Manning, in Indianapolis, on Monday Night Football. The Colts are missing Austin Collie and Dallas Clark, and the running game is patchwork, so Garcon and Wayne will see a lot of targets and must surely see the redzone tonight. At the end of the day, Peyton Manning is in a situation where he has to pass the Colts to victory tonight against the worst pass D in the league. I like our odds.

El Horseboxo

Haven't placed any bets yet but you are on 2 that i'm gonna take in a while. Liking the Wayne anytime TD and Manning yardage over. With Addai and Brown both out and Hart getting his first career start i doubt the Colts will look to get any sort of a running game going. And as you said. The Texans are the worst pass D in the league. Their secondary is just non existant. Really fancy Peyton to put up 300 plus yards. And with Clark out Wayne should get a bulk of the receptions and get into the end zone. Might go with Garcon for interest too as he impressed in the last game. But the chap is hit and miss.

Also liking the Foster yardage over and the game over. Don't expect Foster to put in another monster performance against the Colts buti think he can break the 100 yard barrier. Anyways good luck man.

JONJO THE MISER

Going for the colts to cover the spread tonight:cool:

Peyton Manning

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Going for the colts to cover the spread tonight:cool:

You're a brave man! Best of luck

JONJO THE MISER

Touchdown, wow if everything stays as it is n all my bets, im gonna clean up tonight.

Peyton Manning

This weekend's college football bets (two of which take place tonight) are as follows. I have an awful headache, so no write ups today unfortunately. Just hoping the system keeps up it's impressive start. Have a few NFL bets placed too, will post them up later. In one of them, I think we're getting the value point spread of the season. Take a look for yourself, no prizes for guessing who though :P

Wisconsin (-20) @ Purdue
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (-12.5)
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

Baylor @ Oklahoma State (-7.5)
Buffalo @ Ohio (-15.5)
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

Hawaii @ Boise State (-21)
Boston College (-3) @ Wake Forrest
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

El Horseboxo

I'll have a guess it's either the Colts plus the points or the Jets minus them. From a quick look the Colts stand out. But i reckon that's a bookie trap. Eagles off a bye and Indy with a short week and a banged up team. Vick is back and his mobility will make it a bit harder for Freeny and Mathis to get to him. My heart says Indy wins this straight up. But head is saying Eagles might edge it. Not even sure if this is the game you're talking about though.

Peyton Manning

Aye, it's the Colts. I'll answer why I find that unbelievable when I post up my NFL picks.

Peyton Manning

We're going underdog crazy this weekend. Not a single favourite backed in the NFL on Sunday.

Edit: Some write ups posted, will post the rest tomorrow evening. I'll try to get some write ups for the college games I have left before kick off tomorrow.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills (+3)
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

There's really only one rule you have to remember when it comes to the NFL. That is, never bet against Peyton Manning as an underdog. I don't even like betting against him with a bazillion point spread. Now the bookies are getting incredibly carried away with the fact that Andy Reid has never lost a game after an Eagles bye week. Seven of those teams had a cumulative record of 37-75 in those respective seasons. 2 more were against a rookie QB and a team who had two of their star players knocked out of the game. The other 2 times, they failed to cover the spread. Peyton Manning also liked putting up big numbers against the Eagles - his last three have been 44, 35 and 45 against much better Eagles defences. Kerry Collins blitzed the Eagles with Kenny Britt a few weeks ago, just imagine what Manning can do with Reggie Wayne at his disposal. The Colts also had no trouble shutting down Vick last time they met, hopefully not much has changed since.
As for Buffalo, there are several things going in their favour. Firstly, the Bears just don't run the ball and you've got to be thankful for that when you're terrible against the run. The Bears under Lovie Smith have not performed well after the bye week either, going 2-6 against the spread. I just feel this team is due a win. Losses in overtime to the Ravens and the Chiefs will either destroy their confidence or spur them on to conquer their demons. The Bears are there for the taking, so Im leaning towards the later.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals (+8) @ Minnesota Vikings
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

Now, far be it from me to bet against Matt Ryan at home, but this spread is very strange. The Bucs are very much a team on the rise, and they seem to have done the right thing in promoting LeGarrette Blount to starter, because poor old Cadillac Williams is spent. I have no doubt the Falcons will win this, but I like the Buccaneers to cover the spread towards the end of the game. The Falcons have trouble closing out games in that regard.
Things have gone from bad to worse for Minnesota, and the Cardinals can capitalise here by sneaking a win. Whether they do or not is another thing, but I definitely fancy them to cover the spread. The Vikings season is almost a write off, and all eyes are on Brad Childress and how long he'll last in charge. You can bet as soon as one thing goes wrong - be it an interception, a dropped pass or a fumble - the crowd will be on his back for the game. I just don't see the deep threat for the Vikings either - Moss is gone to Tennessee, Sidney Rice is still injured, Percy Harvin was extremely limited in practise today and had an argument with Childress over his "effort". Who does that leave? Bernard Berrian and Greg Camarillo, who are averaging less than 13 and 9 yards per game respectively. Even then you've got a banged up Bret Favre throwing to them. This just isn't a good spot for the Vikings.

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (+4.5)
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (+7)
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

The Jets were shut out at home last week, and will be hurting because of it and Mark Sanchez good start to the season is now a distant memory with him throwing picks for fun. The Lions are a much different prospect at home than they are on the road, and this team has a new lease of life with Mathew Stafford back under centre. He hooked up with the amazing Calvin Johnson for 3 touchdowns last week, and given how Greg Jennings had fun against the Jets, Stafford and Johnson could have a productive day. Jahvid Best will see a lot more work as a receiver coming out of the backfield, so the Lions could trouble the Jets with short pass and screen plays. The Jets aren't even assured of a win here, I'd have this as a 1.5 spread so I have to take the Lions at +4.5.
The Seahawks were tough to take. Normally, Seattle at home at +7 would be a no brainer. It's the toughest place to go in the NFL as many teams have found out over the years. But Hasselbeck is out, the completely inexperienced Charlie Whitehurst is in (inexperienced as in 0 minutes of playing time in his career. Zero, zilch, nada...) behind a patchwork O-line missing an abundance of starters who gave up 8 sacks last week, hence Hasselbeck being crippled. Still, I fancy the Seahawks just because of how difficult it is to get a win for away teams there, let alone covering such a big spread. I think +7 is extremely generous, regardless of Hasselbeck's absence because he has hardly blown us away this year. Statistically, he's been garbage so how much worse can Whitehurst do?


New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (over 40.5)
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

It would be so typical of this season's Saints to comfortably topple the Steelers last week and to then go on the road and struggle in Carolina. I won't lie, that feeling is my main reasoning behind this bet. They look like a team lacking motivation after a big Superbowl win last year, so I'm not too confident they'll have the right mentality against a crap team on the road right before they go into their bye week.
The Dolphins must be the most under rated team in the NFL and I've been very impressed with them this year, despite some agonising losses. Everybody knows the Ravens as this big bad mean defence, but the fact is that at home, the overs has come in every time this season with points totals of 41, 48 and 71 being put up there already this season. This won't be the shootout we saw against the Bills, but the Ravens are probably underestimating Miami after the bye week, so I can see the Dolphins putting points on the board. The Ravens will reply, and hopefully the overs will be covered here.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (over 40.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (over 40.5)
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

The reason the Bills @ Chiefs game was so low scoring last week was because both teams were sapped after their previous weeks efforts. The Chiefs had a shoot out with the Jaguars, the Bills had an overtime shootout in Baltimore. In their two games before last week, the total points were 62 and 66 for the Chiefs' games. The Raiders have scored 92 points in their last two games. This one has overs written all over it imo.
Cardinals @ Vikings is another one of those feelings. The Cardinals are off the back of a 72 points encounter with the Bucs, and the Vikings have covered the overs in their last 4 games. I can see this working out similar to the Vikes win over the Lions earlier in the year - i.e. they really need it. In that game, the Lions had two passes picked off in the endzone so hopefully there won't be a repeat of that and we see a similar shootout, just with more end product.

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (over 41.5)
San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans (under 50)
5 pts @ 13/5 (Bet365)

Dwayne Bowe (KC) anytime TD
Jacob Tamme (IND) anytime TD
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) anytime TD
1 pts @ 17/1 (PaddyPower)

Mike Wallace (PIT) anytime TD
Mike Williams (TB) anytime TD
Marques Colston (NO) anytime TD
1 pts @ 21/1 (PaddyPower)

L'prof

Archimedes wrote: »

Dwayne Bowe (KC) anytime TD
Jacob Tamme (IND) anytime TD
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) anytime TD
1 pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Mike Wallace (PIT) anytime TD
Mike Williams (TB) anytime TD
Marques Colston (NO) anytime TD
1 pts @ 17/2 (Bet365)

Best of luck, the profit will be rolling in. Just wondering about these two trebles and if you've made a mistake with the odds? I was looking on PP and the first one is 18.87 and the second one is 22.10. It just seems like a massive difference, so if it's not a mistake you should be backing these on PP.

Peyton Manning

Wow, I never even looked at PP's anytime TD scorer before. I'll be using there from now. Cheers man, some difference - I'll get my stake back from Bet365 and use PP for those two instead.

Mike Wallace is 6/5 on Bet365, and 21/10 on PP

L'prof

Archimedes wrote: »

Wow, I never even looked at PP's anytime TD scorer before. I'll be using there from now. Cheers man, some difference - I'll get my stake back from Bet365 and use PP for those two instead.

Mike Wallace is 6/5 on Bet365, and 21/10 on PP

Should have said it last week, but I wasn't paying attention.

Peyton Manning

Ah no worries. Good old Bet365 and their gestures of goodwill have given me back my stake. Will go throw it on PP instead. Cheers for the heads up, appreciate it!

L'prof

Archimedes wrote: »

Ah no worries. Good old Bet365 and their gestures of goodwill have given me back my stake. Will go throw it on PP instead. Cheers for the heads up, appreciate it!

Did you get on to them about it? Not so bad, more profit for you

Peyton Manning

L'prof wrote: »

Did you get on to them about it? Not so bad, more profit for you

Aye, they gave it back. I didn't say anything about seeing better odds on PP though, just said I'd like to reinvest it in a different accumulator. I'm sure the word accumulator made them light up and they couldn't return it quick enough :pac:

Peyton Manning

Good today today. Had VT not let me down on Thursday, we'd be looking at a clean sweep! However, I'll settle for 5/6 and 2/3 doubles

Hopefully the good work isn't undone tomorrow! Should be a good one

Preseason: 6 wins, 5 losses, + 6.6% profit

Week One: 5 wins, 4 losses, - 3.4% loss

Week Two: 8 wins, 3 losses, + 38.3% profit

Week Three: 6 wins, 4 losses, + 24.3% profit

Week Four: 9 wins, 7 losses, + 6.23% profit

Week Five: 3 wins, 2 losses, + 16.25% profit

Week Six: 7 wins, 7 losses, + 2.32% profit

Week Seven: 5 wins, 5 losses, + 84% profit

Week Eight: 6 wins, 9 losses, + 40.4% profit

Week Nine: 2 wins, 1 losses, + 140% profit

Starting Bank: 100 pts
Current Bank: 194 pts
Profit: + 94 pts

Juwwi

Good luck tonight archie great write up as usual.

Out of your 4 point spread matches is there any 1 in particular u would fancy more than the others?