Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

Since all the big leagues are starting back up i might as well start a thread to log my bets in. Gonna work on a spreadsheet also when i get time that i'll post up in here if people wanna download to record bets. Hopefully it will be fully automated. Anyways this thread won't be tips. More so just my selections although i will try give explanations as much as possible. So if you like you can follow some of them. It will probably be mostly soccer but will include all sports from time to time. Except horses which i rarely bet on and have zero knowledge.

I've just recently withdrew from my PP account so i'll start with the 550 i have left. All the odds will be with PP unless started otherwise. I'm also not gonna use a point system to represent a certain amount of cash. I'll just state the amount. Also going to rate the bet out of 10. The closer to 10 the more confidence i have in the bet. <7>, <9>, <10> etc.

To get the ball rolling

Cyprus (-2) vs Andorra @ 2.30 <9>
50 Stake

This is Cyprus's last game before they face a difficult trip to Portugal and i reckon they will want to go into that game on a high. Cyprus have been getting better over the years and this has been shown with their domestic teams inclusion in European competition over the past few years. Most of their national team are made up of their 3 main club teams and should be fit having going through the Euro qualifiers since July. They have shown they can score goals in recent games and proved difficult enough in Ireland's WC group. Andorra on the other hand are still the whipping boys of Europe. They are just such a bad team and don't really offer anything in the way of an opponent having lost their last 23 games. Almost 20 of them beating the -2 handicap. A lot of those games were also against inferior sides than Cyprus. This game should all be one way and it just depends whether Cyprus take their chances.


Ireland vs Argentina @ 1.72 <8>
30 Stake

I went against Ireland winning in our last 2 friendlies and they proved me wrong. However today i really feel they should lose. Argentina have brought a strong team that includes Messi and if they can't beat Ireland tonight they really need to revamp their team. They left the WC in such embarrassing fashion that the players must surely want to do their best to win tonight to restore some bit of credibility to their wearing of their national jersey. Ireland are a hard team to beat but when we play against teams that are of a higher class than us we usually bottle it. Stupid defensive errors and failure to put away our chances. We pretty much suck at scoring goals. Full stop. I can see this being maybe 2-1 or 3-1 to Argentina. I fancy Ireland to score because i don't think Argentina can turn around their defensive problems that quick. Possibly Ireland's best chance is the second half when the Argies make some changes. But i think they will only do so when they feel they have the game won.


Mexico vs Spain - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 <7>
20 stake

Spain are world champions and are simply the best team in the world. They got lucky with their shaky defense at times but they hold on to the ball so well in the middle that they aren't tested all too often. But today's game is in DF and having been there i know how the altitude can affect you. It is far higher than any venue in South Africa so the home team should have a slight advantage in that respect. Which is where i expect Mexico to score from. Spain have brought out a very strong squad and with the more relaxed atmosphere i expect them to take more of the chances they will create than they did in the WC. So to me this points to over 2 goals. Maybe a 2-1 win to Spain. I also like Spain to be winning at HT or FT @ 1.80 <8>


Also for the craic i'm going to do the following treble

England (-1) vs Hungary @ 1.72 <7>
Wales vs Luxembourg (Luxembourg not to score) @ 1.61 <7>
Ukraine U21 vs Montenegro U21 @ 1.44 <8>

4.03 @ 10 stake.

I think this is a perfect time for England to bounce back and gain a little bit of the respect they are so desperately craving. They had a poor WC and i don't rate them as high as the bookies or English media do. But having seen Hungary in their recent friendlies i must say they don't offer a lot at the moment. They have a young team and look very poor at the back. And i think with the English team wanting to shed some of the Criticism they will be really up for this. Maybe a 2-0 finish.

Luxembourg are just a crap team and have very few goals away from home in the past few years. Wales beat them 2-0 2 years ago and Wales tend to do well against poor teams. I can see a result of similar fashion. Was gonna do -1 but i can't see Lux scoring and just in case it's 1-0 i think a Wales cleansheet is the better option.

Ukraine are a very strong u21 team. Although this is a friendly i expect them to win comfortably enough today against an experimental Montenegro squad. Apparently it will be made up of players the manager is trying to pick for the next u21 team. Which is a bit risky as they could be out to cement their future. But i think the quality of Ukraine should shine through in the end. Anyways it's just a small stake.

x PyRo

Brilliant post and best of luck mate, I'll be watching with a keen interest!

coughlan08

was waiting for this day to happen tbh..
the bet that stands out for me is the overs in the spain game.might have a further look into that now.
anyway best of luck and stay focused and you should be grand,profit wise anyways.:p
will have a keen eye on the gaa over/unders bets that you place,btw will you be logging them or just providing a screenshot after they "win" like you usually do..would love if you logged them...;)

El Horseboxo

I probably won't be home for a lot of the remainder of the Championships. Have a lot of weekends away coming up. I lost my last 2 bets on it 2 weeks ago and was away the weekend gone. Hopefully my lick ain't running out. But what i am home for and do bet on i'll post up. Probably won't go higher than 100 unless i see something that i really like. Whenever it hits that sweet spot where you feel the bookies have just ****ed up.

El Horseboxo

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Cyprus (-2) vs Andorra @ 2.30 <9>
50 Stake

Not a great start to the thread. Although it certainly looked like it may have been when Cyprus scored in the 5th minute. They must have done feck all for the remainder of the game and just won by that single early goal. Reminds me why i hate friendlies.

El Horseboxo

511.82 i'm down to now. Didn't bother with the treble in the end as i decided to keep my stakes an even hundred for the day.

Istres vs Tours (DNB) @ evens <7>
15 stake

Tours are a better team than Istres and i think Tours are way over priced to win here. But to be on the safe side i will go with DNB at evens. Tours had a good win last week and scored 4 goals. 3 of them coming from their new striker Guei. At 2.70 he also looks decent as an anytime scorer. However they also conceeded 3 in that game which does make this bet a bit risky. Istres didn't impress me last season and they haven't really strengthened their squad over the summer. Tours have made some good additions and look fairly balanced all over.


Laval vs Metz @ 2.10 <7>
Stake 15

Metz' situation has just continued to spiral since the end of last season and they have been destroyed financially. They lost a load of players over the summer and had a bad pre season. The bad form continued last week when they lost to newly promoted Evian at home. Laval are a decent enough team and have been threatening for promotion for the past few seasons. I think they have enough to beat a depleted Metz team today.

Braga (-1) vs Portimonese @ 2.10 <9>
Stake 30

Portimonese are newly promoted and they should find themselves outta their depth tonight against one of the best teams in the Portuguese league. They are littered with talented Brazilian players and made easy work of Celtic at home by scoring 3 goals and keeping a clean sheet. I can see a similar result or more here tonight. I was worried at first if they would rest players for the Sevilla game next week until i read a quote from their manager that the league is their priority this year after coming close as runners up last year and they will be out to win tonight. I'm quite confident in this bet and i also like Braga to score 3 or more goals @ 3.10 and over 2.5 goals at 2.20 which is probably a little less riskier than the former.


Wanted to put a bet on the JJK vs Kuopio game in which i fancy an away win @ 2.25. Thought it kicked off at 6 though. It just started and those odds are still available. If i can find a stream i might have an in play bet.

El Horseboxo

I've also gone for the following treble.

Braga vs Portimonese (Over 1.5 goals) @ 1.36
Bray vs St. Pats @ 1.33
Le Mans vs Reims @ 1.57

2.86 combined odds. 20 stake.

deise48

i done the two french tams and braga minus 1 as well its looking good so far

El Horseboxo

Fecking low odd trebles. The one i was gonna do during the week and the one i done tonight didn't come through.

At least i got 2 up. And i put 30 on over 3.5 in the Braga game while in play. That late Braga goal satisfied the 2 bets.




So up to 571.32 now.

coughlan08

dont no why yer counting the screenshot as a contribution to the log,
the bet was never logged.
would you of honestly posted that bet to the log if it lost,i doubt it.
just my thoughts,dont kill me..:p

El Horseboxo

I only posted it to show where the increase in my balance came from. The 570 odd is all i have in my account now and i'm going to increase and decrease with each losing or winning bet. I started with 550 and i'll only deposit more if i lose it all. If i just jumped up by 45 euro i'm sure someone would have wondered where it came from. If i lose an in play bet i will be posting it up here as well. Or any bet i do that i don't list before hand. I bet a lot using the wifi on my phone so when i bet in play it isn't always convenient to jump straight to here and post it.

I've a double now of Audax Italiano (0-0 at present) and Kashima. Didn't get a chance to post up here as was out when i done it. It's just €11.42 but it would have ended up in here win or lose.

coughlan08

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I only posted it to show where the increase in my balance came from. The 570 odd is all i have in my account now and i'm going to increase and decrease with each losing or winning bet. I started with 550 and i'll only deposit more if i lose it all. If i just jumped up by 45 euro i'm sure someone would have wondered where it came from. If i lose an in play bet i will be posting it up here as well. Or any bet i do that i don't list before hand. I bet a lot using the wifi on my phone so when i bet in play it isn't always convenient to jump straight to here and post it.

I've a double now of Audax Italiano (0-0 at present) and Kashima. Didn't get a chance to post up here as was out when i done it. It's just €11.42 but it would have ended up in here win or lose.

top stuff boss,wouldnt doubt ya..;)

have that same problem with my log,but dont count it win or lose.tbh i dont even mention it..better that way for me..
best of luck..

El Horseboxo

Only for wanting to see if i'm left with more or less than the 550 i started with at the end of the season i wouldn't bother posting anything i didn't post beforehand. Win or lose. But if my running balance here was different from the one i'm working off on PP it would get confusing and i'd need to keep calculating. So said i'd post up regardless of whether i robbed the bookie or he robbed me just to make it easier. Yeah i am that lazy.

El Horseboxo

Kashima conceed in the 86th minute. The bastards. Balance now 560.

El Horseboxo

2 in play bets for the Waterford v Tipp hurling match.

Total points over 43.5 @ 2.10
100 euro

Tipp over 23.5 @ 2.25
60 euro

Doing them a lot earlier in the game than i normally do as i've to go out for about 20 minutes or so.

El Horseboxo

Both of them came in.

Should be up to 745 if my calculations are correct.

If i wasn't doing this season long thing with the log i probably would have went around 300 for the total points overs and maybe 150-200 for the Tipp overs. Didn't want to risk my entire bank this early.

Well there ye go Coughlan. You missed out.

El Horseboxo

I know the Zenit game has already started and they are 1 up. But i have them in a double and will put up a screenshot if required. I posted it in the tips from a pro thread anyways i think.

Double of:

Zenit v Auxerre @1.53 <8>
Kiev vs Ajax (Ajax to score 1 or more goals) @ 1.44 <8>

Zenit are on great form and have strengthened their squad over the summer. Auxerre on the other hand are in poor form from since their pre season adventures and are just a weaker team overall. Zenit have their home stadium set up like a fortress. It is difficult to get a result there and they have a great following. They play smooth football and have no problem banging them in. Was going to take them on the handicap but since they can be a bit unpredictable at times i decided a double with a straight win might be the better option.

Ajax very rarely don't score in matches. I fancy them to win this one as well and at 3.80 that's great odds. But they haven't looked too sharp lately and Kiev is a difficult place to go to and get a result. Ajax have looked weak at the back and should conceed. But they should score too. Both to score at 1.72 looked good too. Also the over 2.5 which is backed also. Both teams like to attack and don't pay much attention to defending. So that supports my reason for the overs and both to score.

20 stake.


Kiev vs Ajax (over 2.5 goals) @ 2.10. <7>

I explained the reasoning behind this above. Only way i can see this being under is if Ajax decide to throw everyone behind the ball and try win this in Amsterdam. Or if Kiev get and early lead and try defend to hold on to it. But i don't think either are likely scenarios. And at 2.10 that's worth a punt.

15 stake.


Young Boys vs Spurs (Spurs to have over 2 first half corners) @ 1.90 <7>

Spurs looked very impressive against Man City on Saturday. Only for Hart they should have won comfortably. They also racked up 5 first half corners before they let City get into the game a bit in the second half. They still managed 3 in that half. (Hope the source i read for that is correct. There were 8 total corners anyways). I have a feeling they will start this game fast and put it to rest and then let it wind down. With Bale and Lennon on the wings it makes for a good opportunity to get at least 3 first half corners. This is all provided that Young Boys actually do some defending and get the ball out of touch. I've a bit of faith in this one as long as Spurs go out to win this game and don't try the usual take it easy while away approach and win the game at home. Young Boys are vastly inferior and Spurs should have an easy enough game tonight. The Spurs win at 1.72 also looks decent.


15 stake.


Rosenborg vs Copenhagen ( Copenhagen to score 2 or more goals) @ 3.25 <6>

Rosenborg are a good team and are undefeated this year in Norway. They score lots of goals and their manager has the opinion that the team with the most goals wins a game. Defending is not really their thing and they more often than not concede only to win by scoring late goals. However today they are up against possibly a slighter better team than themselves. Copenhagen are also an attacking team and i figure if worse teams in the Norwegian league can score a goal or 2 against Rosenborg. Surely a better team should be able to do the same. I know Europe is different and that makes this a little risky. But know both of their style of play i think someone will score 2 goals today. It's really a toss up between who and i decided to go with the Danes. Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 looks good also.

Stake 10

coughlan08

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Both of them came in.

Should be up to 745 if my calculations are correct.

If i wasn't doing this season long thing with the log i probably would have went around 300 for the total points overs and maybe 150-200 for the Tipp overs. Didn't want to risk my entire bank this early.

Well there ye go Coughlan. You missed out.

well done mate,sisters wedding so was a bit more pre occupied with drink.

El Horseboxo

Drink. One of the very few other things better than winning money.

The weirdest thing has happened with my PP account. My bet of Zenit to win has changed to Zenit to qualify. The odds are even different to what i wrote here. And i know i looked at my account to write the odds here. So i'm sure i selected Zenit to win and not to qualify. Gonna have to get on to them.

El Horseboxo

757.94 balance. PP confirmed that i did select Zenit to win. For some reason it changed to Zenit to qualify. I knew i picked the 1x2 market.

Avai vs Santos <7> @ 2.37 Would be <8> if i was sure Avai will go out to win.

I really like this Avai side. They have won me a few quid this year and i'm going to stick with them tonight. They won the first leg away 3-1 and dominated the whole game. And now they get to play at home where there record is very impressive. They aren't that solid at the back but they are very attacking and have been scoring an average of 2 goals per home game. And due to that attacking nature i don't really see them sitting back despite Santos needing 3 goals to go through. I usually like Santos and Neymar is a great goal scorer. But Santos have been under-performing lately and aren't producing the goals that i used to assosiate with them. Neymar is probably a bit unsettled with all the talk of him moving to Chelsea as well. So i have to favor Avai in this one and at great odds. I just hope that they turn up tonight and don't already think they are through.

Stake 27.94

El Horseboxo

Down to 700 now.

Put 30 on a double where both of them lost. Stuck the screenshot in below.



Done a bit of chasing which i don't usually do but i felt fairly confident in it.

Stuck 100 on a treble of Villarreal -1, Liverpool and Celtic. Was basically just the enhanced PP special but i didn't fancy City to win away given my shock PSV result earlier.

Will post up screenshot if the Villarreal result comes in.

El Horseboxo

Villarreal won 5-0 so the -1 handicap was well safe.

Need to start making more time to get my bets up early. Been busy this week and have only been getting a few minutes here and there online. Don't want this to be my own little after timing thread. I want to keep my balance in here true to my PP balance so that's the only reason i'm posting up winnings and losses after the fact.

El Horseboxo

Was looking for a double that came to about evens and 2 bets stood out.

NK Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic @ 1.40 <8>

Zagreb have won 3 out of their 4 games so far and drew the other 0-0. They have only conceeded the 1 goal in those matches and currently sit in second place. Today they play at home against Zapresic, a team that has bounced back and forth between the 1st and 2nd disivision over the past few years. They have yet to win a game or score a goal this year and have picked the ball outta their net 10 times. Over the years they have been a poor away team and a trip to an in form and strong Zagreb team should not change their fortunes today.

Polonia Warsaw vs Zaglebie @ 1.50 <8>

Polonia start their season with 2 wins scoring 5 goals and not conceeding any and sit at the top of the table. They have brought in some good signings and have a young ambitious team. They have been considered a home team over the years and the trip to their stadium is intimidating. So they have a few things going for them to support the home win. Zaglebie have lost one and drawn the other. They lost their leading scorer over the summer and don't really have a decent striker in their squad. They are also missing some of their midfield through injury.

Combined odds of 2.10

Stake 30



Le Mans vs Chatereaux (Both teams to score) @ 2.20 <7>

I like the look of the generous odds for both teams to score. The French Ligue 2 is typically an unders league with maybe 2 or 3 over 2.5 goal games a week. And i have a feeling this is going to be one of them. I don't see either side winning 3-0 so i decided to play it a little safer and take the slightly lesser odds for both to score. Le Mans have drew their last few games and i think they will be out to break that mould at home tonight. They have some good attackers well capable of scoring a goal or two. Chatereuax are a decent counter attacking team and i think they should be able to score against Le Mans. They will definitely try to go home with at least a point. I see Le Mans scoring so i reckon they will have to score themselves if they want to leave with at least that result. I'm thinking maybe 1-1 or a 2-1 home win.

Stake 20



Hertha Berlin (-1) vs Oberhausen @ 2.20 <6>

Hertha surprised a lot of people by being relegated last season and are widely considered favorites to make the jump back up in their first attempt. They managed to hold onto a lot of their best players and their new manager has got the team in good shape. Oberhausen is a very small team and their fight is usually to avoid relegation. They lost one of their best players over the summer and have 2 first team players injured for tonight. It's always a bit dodgy calling a win for the favorites on the opening day. Especially when you expect them to beat the handicap. But i expect Hertha to make a statement tonight and win comfortably enough. Although a 1-0 wouldn't surprise me.

Stake 10



Hradec Kralove v Jablonec 97 @ 2.20 <6>

There's a gap in quality between these 2 teams but Jablonec's form can be a bit erratic. I hope the strong attacking team they can be shows up today. Their opponents are weak and should be down the bottom end of the table at the end of the season while Jablonec will be challenging for the title. They have been scoring goals at will lately and against a poor side they should continue on their form. A draw would not be out of the question but i favor an away win here. Not at big stakes though.

Stake 10


Some other bets i fancy today but probably won't take. Will post here if i do.

Guie to score for Tours.
Evian thonon Galliard to win.
Bray to score one of more goals.

El Horseboxo

Feeling sexy today so gonna go for another double

Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.53 <7>
Evian Thonon Galliard vs Tours (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.25 <6>

Combined odds of 3.45

Bayern even without Robben and an out of form Ribery always have the potential to score goals. And i'm looking forward to see how Mueller does. Klose had a decent WC and hopefully his form continues to the Bundesliga. Although that always hasn't been the case. Bayern haven't taken full points on opening day in 2 years and i'll stay away from betting on whether that will change. Wolfsburg are an ever improving team and McClaren should tighten them up a bit at the back. But i can't see that being an instant result in the first game. They will get stronger as they progress and should still be vunerable to Bayerns attack tonight. A narrow home win or a 2-2 draw wouldn't surprise me here. Wolfsburg have good strikers in Dzeko and Mandzukic.

The Evian and Tours game is a little more riskier. Evian play at altitude and have yet to conceed. They have won 3 games and scored 7. Teams find it difficult to go there and win as they are also a solid team. Tours won the first 2 games with Guie scoring a hat trick in each. But they have also conceeded 6. And that has been against some teams worse than Evian. So i expect them to conceed 1 or 2 tonight. But i also expect them to score tonight and not go 2 games without scoring.

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

Jablonec lost and Hertha won 3-2. If only they didn't conceed that 2nd goal. I got lucky in the Zagreb game though. They were down to 10 men and scored in the 92nd minute to win 2-1. Hopefully some more of that luck for the other bets.

iMuse

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I got lucky in the Zagreb game though. They were down to 10 men and scored in the 92nd minute to win 2-1. Hopefully some more of that luck for the other bets.

Backed your double Nice pick, Thought it was game over when they went down to ten. Best of luck with the rest of the bets

El Horseboxo

Good stuff iMuse. Seems to be a fair few surprising results today when i look through livescore. Suppose that's the problem this early in the season. You're not sure where teams are heading with their form.

Just need the Bayern game to produce 2 more goals. Evian just scored a peno to bring the game to 1-2 in favor of Tours. Guie scored as well. Mentioned him in here as a bet i fancied but never took it.

El Horseboxo

Two late goals bring my double through.

Balance now 979.
Profit = 429.

El Horseboxo

Sparta Prague vs Viktoria Plzen @ 4.33 <6>

Plzen sit at the top of the Gambrinus league with 5 games played. They have won 4 and drew the other. Scoring 13 along the way and conceeding 5. 2 of those wins have come away from home where they scored a total of 6 goals and conceeded 3. They have shown they can keep their form on the road and aren't shy in front of goal.

However today they face Czech giants Sparta Prague who sit in 3rd place 4 points behind Plzen. They have won their 2 home games scoring 6 and conceeding 1 but lost 2 away games to lesser teams. They also lost at home 2-0 to Zillina in the CL qualifier during the week.

Given Plzen's form and the fact that i suspect Sparta will rest some players in hope that they can overturn the 2-0 deficit in the return leg, i feel Plzen have a great chance of continuing on their momentum and coming away with the 3 points tomorrow. The odds are great for an in form team that sits on top of the table and are worth the risk. I fear a draw here so i won't go too big. For anyone interested the double chance is evens. Odds would be better for DNB but it's not up on PP.

Stake 29

El Horseboxo

Double of:

Cardiff vs Doncaster @ 1.72 <7>
QPR vs Scunthorpe @ 1.44 <8>

Combined odds of 2.49

Feel both are strong home teams and Cardiff have been reinforced with Bellamy. A lot of people betting on him to score but i think the win is a safer bet. With Bothroyd and Chopra they should get a lot of chances to score. I just hope they take them. QPR have yet to conceed and have scored 7 in their 2 games. They should have too much for Scunthorpe and i see a home win here.

Stake 50

Also went for a double of:

Norwich vs Swansea (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.10 <6>
Arsenal (-2AH) vs Blackpool @ 1.72 <7>

Both Norwich and Swansea are weak at the back and both can score goals. I don't see this being a case of both canceling each other out. Rather more so a tit for tat game. So i can see 3 or more in this one.

Arsenal are still a class team and should bring Blackpool back to earth today. Blackpool are weak at the back and should be punished at Highbury or whatever the fook their stadium is called these days. Gone for the -2 asian handicap as i'll be refunded that part of the stake if it's 2-0.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

The Norwich and Swansea game let me down in getting my 2 doubles in. Finished 2-0 with 2 late goals. Hate when that happens. Don't score all game and then come close in the dying minutes. But my main one came through so profit overall so far. Both QPR and Cardiff won 2-0 and 4-0 respectively. Bellamy getting a late goal to score on his debut as well for those who had him to score.

Balance now 1004.75.
Profit 454.75