Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

Wigan vs Chelsea (Chelsea to win & Malouda to score) @ 2.87 <7>

Malouda was on fire last season and has continued it on to this season. I think too many people are reading too much into Wigan beating Chelsea last year. Very different circumstances now and i think they should win with relative ease. And Malouda is a good shout to get on the scoresheet in what could contain 3 or more Chelsea goals.

Stake 50

El Horseboxo

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Sparta Prague vs Viktoria Plzen @ 4.33 <6>

Plzen sit at the top of the Gambrinus league with 5 games played. They have won 4 and drew the other. Scoring 13 along the way and conceeding 5. 2 of those wins have come away from home where they scored a total of 6 goals and conceeded 3. They have shown they can keep their form on the road and aren't shy in front of goal.

However today they face Czech giants Sparta Prague who sit in 3rd place 4 points behind Plzen. They have won their 2 home games scoring 6 and conceeding 1 but lost 2 away games to lesser teams. They also lost at home 2-0 to Zillina in the CL qualifier during the week.

Given Plzen's form and the fact that i suspect Sparta will rest some players in hope that they can overturn the 2-0 deficit in the return leg, i feel Plzen have a great chance of continuing on their momentum and coming away with the 3 points tomorrow. The odds are great for an in form team that sits on top of the table and are worth the risk. I fear a draw here so i won't go too big. For anyone interested the double chance is evens. Odds would be better for DNB but it's not up on PP.

Stake 29

Plzen won 1-0. Hope someone else made some money from this. Can't believe the odds were so generous.

Also my Chelsea bet won as well. Great bit of profit today. Also more than doubled my starting balance in 2 weekends. Not bad. Didn't expect that result so soon.

Balance 1349.64
Profit 799.64

El Horseboxo

Small treble of:

Barcelona vs Sevilla (Barca to score in both halves) @ 1.66 <8>
Ajax vs Roda (Suarez to score anytime) @ 1.50 <7>
Inter Milan vs Roma (Over 1.5 goals) @ 1.33 <7>

Combined odds of 3.33

Barca should be out to win this tonight and have a strong team named. I just can't see them going a full 45 minutes without scoring tonight.
Suarez had a good WC and will be up for it tonight. Ajax could score 4 goals and i expect him to be on the scoresheet.
The Milan v Roma game should produce at least 2 goals. I fancy both teams to score in this one. But since the treble is really only for interest and small stakes i'll go for what i see as the safer option.

Stake 19.64

El Horseboxo

And the interest bet comes in too. Although Barca made me sweat for it with their injury time goal.

Balance 1395.47
Profit 845.47

DOC09UNAM

Wow, I shall be following here closely after reading so far.

El Horseboxo

Fulham vs Man Utd (-1.25 AH) @ 2.30 <8>

I can't believe there are odds of this value available in a game that i really expect the result to cover the handicap. The bookies are once again reading too much into past results and are ignoring the current circumstances. Man Utd had a tough pre season schedule against lots of teams that were mid season. It gave them a good run out, time to test players and get fitness levels up. Most of all they impressed when they needed to despite some shaky performances early on. The squad is near full strength and they destroyed Newcastle last week without ever really getting out of 1st gear. They beat Chelsea in the Charity shield which would have eased the wounds a little after losing the title to them last year. But now they are already playing catch up with Chelsea in terms of goals after 2 games. So i think United will be out to show that they can score lots of goals too.

Yes Fulham have beaten United twice at home but they were under different conditions. Utd had defensive problems through injury but now they are healthy and in good form. I really can't see Fulham doing any damage here. Mark Hughes has a good record against his former club but he hasn't had much time with this team. I don't see Fulham scoring and i see Utd putting at least 2 or 3 past them.

On PP you'll see this bet as Asian Handicap 2. (-1.0 & -1.5). -1.25 is the same thing.

Stake 45.47

El Horseboxo

1350 now after that disappointing Man Utd result against Fulham. I really thought they would win there this time and had Nani scored the peno they may not have conceeded.

Anyways on to today. A few bets i like.

Hapoel Tel Aviv v Red Bull Salzburg (Both teams to score) @ 1.72 <8>

Hapoel are a strong home team who play skillful attacking football. The first leg showed they can score away from home by winning 3-2 and i expect them to score at least once tonight. Even if they are missing their star striker. Stories say he is on the bench though and should make an appearance. While they can score goals they can also conceed them due to their poor defending at times. And this is why i favor that bet. Because i can see Salzburg scoring tonight also. They are a good strong team domestically but sometimes blow hot and cold in Europe. However they have nothing to lose tonight and are chasing a goal. So they should be able to score against a shaky Hapoel defense. Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 also looks good.

Stake 30


Anorthosis vs CSKA @ 2.10 <7>

I had a few reservations about CSKA winning so comfortably in the first leg. The game ended 4-0. I caught most of it online and i was really impressed with them. Anorthosis didn't really offer anything as an opponent and looked outclassed all over. And for this round they are missing their first team keeper through suspension. So i see another CSKA win here. It is a bit of a risky call because this game should be over already and i just hope CSKA turn up to play. The weather will be a bit different but after the recent heatwave in Moscow they should be accustomed to it. Especially having their season well under way and playing in those temperatures. They are solid at the back and i don't see them conceeding. So i just hope they can score.

Stake 20


Sevilla vs Braga (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 <8>

Sevilla are a great home team and rarely lose there. They regularily play against much stronger teams than Braga and i feel they should score 1 or 2 here. There is a gap in class between the 2 teams but Braga do pose some danger on the counter attack. And that is where Sevilla are vulnerable. So i see both teams scoring. But i think Sevilla should win this by a goal at least. Maybe 2-1 or 3-1. But since this is Europe and surprises are regularily throw up i will bet on what i feel is safer.

Stake 30


I have also done the above as a treble which was my original plan.
Combined odds of 6.53. Would have went higher if i didn't bother with the singles. I just hope i can make a profit for these 4 bets.

Stake 15.


Peterborough vs Cardiff @ 2.25 <8>

Peterborough went down to League 1 last year after finishing bottom by conceeding the most amount of goals and almost scoring the least. They were really bad and haven't really added much strength to their team over the summer. They have conceed a few this season so far and still look bad at the back. Cardiff have just continued to impress with a very strong forward line in Chopra and Boothroyd. They have also been reinforced with 2 great loan deals in Bellamy and Koumas. They won at ease against Doncaster at the weekend and i expect them to continue this momentum into tonights game. Great odds for a much better team.

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

Great aul day for me. My 3 singles and the treble came in. Cardiff somehow lost 2-1 after leading from early. Not sure what they done for the rest of the game after they scored. I also had a double that i was pretty sure i had posted up here around 7:30. It was just before kick off. I know i typed it out but it isn't in the thread. Screenshot is below though.





Balance 1515.99
Profit 965.99

Vurnon San Benito

Brilliant stuff, keep it up!

El Horseboxo

I love the second leg of European competition (any competition really) because they usually happen to have more than 2.5 goals and you can get decent odds on it. Some can be a risk depending on the first leg scoreline. But today there are a lot that can be easily turned around and every team should be out to play tonight.

FC Copenhagen vs Rosenborg (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.87 <8>

This game should be over 2 goals. Both are attacking teams and both don't pay enough attention to defending. Even in a cautious first leg the game went over. So i expect a more open game tonight with a few goals. Copenhagen have to score twice to win from the onset and Rosenborg know their 1 goal home leg win isn't enough to get through as they aren't that great at the back and should conceed against a strong Copenhagen team. Hopefully there will be an early goal in game which should set the overs in motion. I got this last night at 1.87. It is 1.80 now on PP. Both teams to score also looks good in this.

Stake 30


Spurs vs Young boys (Over 3.5 goals) @ 2.25 <7>

Spurs took too long to come alive last week and just didn't show up. Going behind so early seemed to shock them and they didn't know how to react to it. And the artificial pitch may have played a part as they are not used to that surface. But they still managed to score 2 goals. Tonight at home with their fans behind them i expect them to go out strong and win easy enough and out do their away peformance in terms of goals. Was hoping the over 3.5 would be a little higher but at 2.25 there's still some value in it. Young Boys should know that their 1 goal home leg advantage is not going to be enough to get them through. So they should be out to attack or at least try counter attack. This should leave them exposed at the back and may even net them a goal themselves.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Have also gone for an overs double of:

Ajax vs Kiev (Over 2.5) @ 1.61 <7>
Spurs vs Young Boys (Over 2.5) @ 1.44 <9>

I have already explained my reason for the Spurs game. And my reasoning for the Ajax game is quite similar to the Rosenborg one. The first game finished 1-1 and both know that Ajax's away goal lead is not enough to get them through. Kiev have to score and Ajax will want to put a comfortable gap between them. Both can be dodgy at the back so there should be some goals here.

Combined odds 2.33
Stake 35.99

El Horseboxo

Another bit of profit today. Just the Rosenborg game didn't go how i thought my bets would. Really surprised that finished with just 1 goal in it given how both are attacking teams.

Balance 1558.98
Profit 1008.98

El Horseboxo

2 bets today so far.


Double of:

Man City v FC Timisoara (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.40 <8>
Aston Villa v Rapid Vienna (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 <7>

Total odds 2.20

Man City are just a far superior team no matter how much they rotate their squad tonight. They are a different team at home and i see a similar enough result as the Spurs one last night. If they can put 3 past Liverpool without conceeding i fancy them to do more or less the same against a poorer Romanian team.

The first leg ended 1-1 with Villa fielding a reserve squad for the most part. They looked the better team from the highlights and after the 6-0 defeat at the weekend they will be out to put that result behind them in front of their own fans. Villa are missing some people at the back so i can see them conceeding again with maybe a 2-1 win in the end.

Stake 30


Karpaty Lviv v Galatasaray (Both teams to score) @ 1.66 <7>
Lille v Vaslui (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.00 <6>
FC Utrecht v Celtic (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.90 <6>

Total odds 6.36

Stake 18.98

The Karpaty game finished 2-2 in the first leg and due to the away goal rule Galatasary will have to score. This should leave them open just like it did in the first leg when they found themselves 2-0 down. Karpaty will also try to score as an away goal isn't that much of an advantage with 90 minutes to play. So i expect an open game like last week with 2 dodgy back lines which should allow both to score.

Lille are a good home team and are the stronger of the two. But they aren't a team known for goals. A lot of there games are very much under as was last weeks away leg tie that finished 0-0. But i expect them to go out for the win from early in this game. Hopefully they can get 2 and maybe conceed one on the counter.

First leg finished 2-0 to Celtic who go into this game with a decent advantage. I don't expect them to throw everyone behind the ball and will probably try get an away goal in the first half. Which may leave them exposed at the back. They aren't the best away side in Europe and they will probably lose this 2-1 or something.


With the exception of Karpaty game the other 2 are pretty risk and this is just really an interest bet with a hope of coming off. Games don't always go as planned in Europe and maybe i can get a result by going against the bookies who favor the unders.

El Horseboxo

No winners today. Really should have stayed away when i missed some of the more predictable earlier kick offs. Or if City had of learned the offside rule before the game they may have scored more than 2.

Balance 1510
Profit 960

El Horseboxo

Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.10 <6>

The Super Cup has typically been an overs competition since it changed to single leg format. It's not overly important and there is no need to be too defensive and cautious a la 2 leg games. Inter have continued to look attacking under Benitez by scoring 2 or more goals in most of their pre season games and also winning 3-1 against Roma in their domestic Super Cup. They conceded 3 goals against Panathinaikos and have showed some vunerabilities at the back. Atletico had some dubious results in pre season but the have been games over 2.5 goals. They have strengthened their team a bit over the summer and with Forlan on such good form you always have a chance of Atleti scoring. It is a bit of a risky-ish call but it's worth a shot. I think Inter should win this and i like Milito for anytime scorer at 2.20 also. May have a bet on this also.

Stake 20


And also a treble of:

Inter vs Atletico (Milito to score anytime) @ 2.20 <7>
St. Pat's (-2) Vs Belgrove @ 1.72 <7>
Sporting Fingal vs Limerick (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.83 <7>

I see the above treble as an outside chance of happening. Milito is Milito and is a great striker. He didn't score in the last game against Roma and he usually scores every other game. So there is a decent chance he'll get on the scoresheet tonight. St. Pat's have 43 goals in the airtricity league so far and usually do well against weaker opposition. Think there's a good chance of 3 or 4 nil in this game. Although since it's a cup game i would not be surprised at a 1-0 outcome or something. The Sporting Fingal game has the potential to go either way. Both are capable of producing a 3-2 finish or a high scoring game of whatever result. I just hope they can have one of them today.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

In play bet.

Dinamo Bucharest vs FC Cluj (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.10 <8>

Stake 50

El Horseboxo

That was quick. 5 mins after posting the above and it is 2-1 in the Cluj game. This game has loads more goals in it.


EDIT

Another In play bet. Over 5.5 goals. @ 2.25

Stake 20.

El Horseboxo

Odds in the above bet are actually 2.37. Must have changed for the better while placing the it.

It's now 2-3 to Cluj so just need one more goal. Dinamo are the better team of the 2 and i'm looking at 4 or more goals for them @ 2.29. Gonna wait a bit into the second half. It's HT now.

El Horseboxo

Gone for another in play bet.

Dinamo to score 4 or more @ 2.29

Stake 15

Cluj to score 4 or more @ 2.30.

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

2-4 now to Cluj. That gets 2 of my bets in now. The over 5.5 one and the Cluj to score 4 or more. What a game.

x PyRo

Well done, you're a stunningly good gambler.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

Well done, you're a stunningly good gambler.

I concur.

I'll give you €10, make me €1k

El Horseboxo

Thanks. Been a bit lucky with a lot of late goals helping me out.

Balance 1574
Profit 1024

El Horseboxo

That Milito fúcker. Lazy looking peno although a good save. Either way St. Pat's only won 2-0. Thank fook for that good In play session today.

El Horseboxo

Going for a 4 game accumulator. Something i haven't done in a while. All favorites and home teams with decent enough odds that come to over 4/1. Just small stakes though.

Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion @ 1.53 <8>
Deportivo Quito vs Olmedo @ 1.57 <7>
Nagoya Grampus Eight vs Kyoto Purple Sanga @ 1.36 <8>
Cerezo Osaka vs Omiya Ardija @ 1.66 <8>

Total odds 5.48

Libertad are in great form and just recently won 7-0. They are scoring around 3-4 goals on average per home game lately and should be able to continue on that momentum. Especially considering Guarani are resting most of their first team players for their mid week Copa SudAmericana game. They should be well able to beat a Guarani reserve team. I'll be looking at the in play as well if i can find a good stream.

Deportivo got a new manager 3 games ago and they have responded well to the change by winning 2 and drawing with the league leaders. They play an Olmedo team that haven't won in 7 games and are looking like they have real problems. Quito are looking good to win here at home.

Grampus Eight are one of the best teams in the league and are usually consistent despite a recent 4-0 loss. Tomorrow they play the bottom of the league team in Kyoto. They are a bad team, are used to heavy losses and have terrible away form. So a result other than a home one will be a big upset. League leaders should not be losing to relegation candidates at home.

Osaka are another team that are pushing for a title challenge. They sit in 2nd place and will be out for the points against a weaker team in the form of Omiya. They should win although sometimes this league throws up some surprises.

Stake 14

El Horseboxo

Got in on an early treble that i think has a great chance of coming in.

Chelsea (-1) vs Stoke @ 1.30 <9>
Man Utd (-1) vs West Ham @ 1.40 <9>
Spurs vs Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.44 <8>

Total odds 2.63

What can i say. Chelsea have 12 goals in 2 games and managed that without really looking like they have played to their full potential yet. They have yet to concede and i don't see that changing tomorrow. Maybe if it was an away game i'd be a bit weary of handicaps but at home they should walk this against a Stoke team yet to claim any points. I'm not sure if they will win by such a big scoreline as their previous 2 games. But they should win by 2 at least.

Man Utd should be pissed that they didn't come away from Fulham with the 3 points. So i can see a lot of the players out with something to prove. And who better against than a very poor looking West Ham. They have been destroyed in their 2 opening games and things don't look set to improve. Well not tomorrow anyways. I can see this being 3 or 4 nil and i'll have a look at some other bets for this game later on. I can see United winning by at least 2 and the -1 handicap should be as close to a sure thing as you can get in this game.

Wigan. Bottom of the league with no points and 10 goals against without scoring. And those were 2 home games. The 4-0 loss to Blackpool has really sumed up the problems they have in the middle and at the back. And up front also speaks for itself as they have yet to score. Spurs will be hard to score against but they may nick one on the counter. Spurs have already put in one great performance against City and were unlucky not to win. And they should be on a high having overturned the away defeat to Young Boys. I was going to consider the handicap but went with the over 2.5. This should be a game with a few goals in it.

Stake 100

El Horseboxo

Fecking Quito. Even though a lot pointed towards a home win i still had my doubts. Really should have went for Universidad who were the team i was looking at before them. Only changed at last minute.


EDIT

Haha i never even checked my PP account. I just checked livescore.com on my phone this morning and they had 0-0 final score. I noticed my balance was higher now so i checked livescore.sk (which i usually use) and they won 1-0. They scored in the 92nd minute. Brilliant stuff. They others all won as well.

Balance 1536.67
Profit 986.67

El Horseboxo

Inverness CT vs Hamilton @ 1.80 <8>

ICT have continued on their form from last season and have started strong. They managed to just lose 1-0 to Celtic on the opening day and then destroyed Dundee Utd 4-0 in their next game. The biggest part of this bet however focusing on Hamilton. They are just in shambles at present. They have lost their 2 games in the SPL 4-0 and lost to league 1 outfit Raith during the week in the cup. Their best striker is long term injured and they are missing 2 defenders. 1 injury and 1 suspension. The cover for their backline are 2 inexperienced players and their 3 games so far show they are very weak in that position. With an in form ICT at home against this horrible Hamilton side you have to fancy the home win. I also like Adam Rooney to score anytime @ 2.20 and Rooney to score first with insure bet @ 3.60.

Stake 30



Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock @ 1.83 <7>

Aberdeen sit joint top of the table after a great start to their campaign. They've scored 5 and have yet to concede. They are a top 6 team and should finish within that range this season. Kilmarnock struggled last year and they continue to struggle this year with 2 losses. They don't have any natural striker and their only goal came from a peno against Rangers. They won midweek in the cup 5-2 but i'm looking more at the fact that they conceded 2 against a league 1 team. I fully expect Kilmarnock to be battling relegation this year. Aberdeen's confidence is high and they are a hard team to beat at home. I would be surprised if they lost this one.


Stake 20



Also done a 4 team accumulator for the craic.


Portsmouth v Cardiff @ 2.30 <7>
Chelsea v Stoke (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.36 <8>
Derby v QPR (DNB) @ 1.66 <7>
Blackpool v Fulham (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 <7>

total odds 9.49


Cardiff are strong up front with Bothroyd even though Chopra is injured. Bellamy has been a strong addition and they have also started the season strong. Portsmouth find themselves in the drop zone already and really look like a team that are destined to stay in Chapionship or lower league football. Relegation has really crippled this team and even at home they don't offer much of a resistence to Cardiff. They'll probably make me eat my words today. But i can only see an away win. Was gonna play it safe with DNB but it's small stakes so didn't bother.

Chelsea mean goals and they should at least score 2 or 3 today. Stoke are even capable of scoring a goal themselves. Especially from a set piece. so i consider this safe enough.

QPR have started great and sit at the top of the table with full points and have yet to concede. Derby have started okay themselves but have a few injury worries while QPR are at full strength and go into this game with confidence and momentum. I played DNB just in case Derby prove harder to break down than i imagine.

Fulham are a very tenecious side and can get goals from nothing. Even when they aren't playing great. Blackpool are a poor at the back but have showed last season and on opening day that they can score goals. I can see 3 goals in this game although it is a risk.


Stake 10

El Horseboxo

In Play bet.

United to score 4 or more goals @ 2.50.

Stake 40

El Horseboxo

Horrible day. No luck at all.