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Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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    #572
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Going behind early when you're a favorite won't affect the odds on an overall straight win that much. Should just reduce the spread slightly. Bookies are well aware basketball is a game of streaks so they must program the bots to operate that way unfortunately.


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    #573
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Bobcats cover the 2.5 spread going in at the half leading 51-50. Boston played pretty much how i expected them to.

    Balance 2832.73

    Would have liked to get on Lakers -1 1st Q but at 1:03 they said the game started. Didn't start till 1:09 though. Losing 8-4 at the moment so probably a good sign. Was going 50 on it.


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    #574
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    T'wolves at Rockets (-8.5) @ 1.90 (bet365)

    I'll edit in for full reasons later but the general jist is this is Minny's 4th game in almost as many days and they are gonna be without some starters. Not to mention they are a poor road team. Houston are a good home team and have been playing well lately. Beating the Grizzlies at home on Saturday in the process.

    EDIT

    As i mentioned above Minnesota is going to be without some starters. Beasley is out and he averages 19.9 points a game. Ridnour who averages 11.5 points is out and also Milicic is out at center. Ridnour has been out the past few games but the other 2 are new injuries. And who is replacing them? Players that were drafted up from the D league to fill a bad bench. Most of the play is probably gonna go through Love. So take care of him and i don't see where T'wolves are getting the points from to match Houston who are 4th for points scored. There's just too much of their offense not on the court. Also yes both are on a back to back but this is Minny's 4th game in 5 days so fatigue should affect them more. On your home court teams tend to push a little harder anyways to get a win in front of their fans. And having beaten Denver last night they should be pretty confident against a team with 3 road wins all season. It's really hard not to believe this won't be a 12+ point win for Houston.

    Stake 32.73


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    #575
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Balance 2800

    As soon as Boston go below -2 i'm gonna take them for 100. Currently at -2 which i think they will cover but i'll feel more comfortable on -2 or scratch. Hopefully Pierce isn't affected too much by the illness. Just think Boston has LA's number. In the last game Kobe put up 41 points and they still got beat by 13. Allen going for an NBA history record for 3 pointers and Pierce should want to disspell any stories bout how he ain't gonna play well tonight. The Lakers have too many players that haven't been playing good this year. Fisher and Artest have been below par and their stats are way down this side of the year. Also the Celtics are usually very good coming off a loss. Not to mention the chance of revenge on their home court for the finals last year.

    I'll edit the below and throw up a screenshot.

    Lakers at Celtics (-1) @ 1.90

    Stake 100

    Finally in the 3rd quarter after the Lakers go on 2 10-0 runs the line goes down to -1. When Bryant and Gasol rotate they just don't have anything on offense. So i'll be looking for the Celtics to close it out late in the game.

    bballq.jpg


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    #576
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Gonna give this another attempt. Had a cousin staying with me from Mexico so wasn't getting to do much gambling. Was betting mostly at half time so never bother posting up in here. I withdrew down to 2700 to reflect balance in the thread. The above Celtics bet lost.


    Hawks (-1st half) at Wizards @ 1.90

    Hawks are the better team and are a pretty decent 1st half road team. They lost yesterday and i can see them coming out early in this game. Washington has nothing to play for. Their season is over and if Atlanta hit a run i can't see them putting up too much of a fight. But i don't really get the -2 game spread. Seems too good to be true and i don't know why it would be that low. So i'll just stick with the first half.

    Stake 50


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    #577
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play

    Udinese vs Roma (Over 2.5) @ 2.20

    Stake 20


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    #578
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Thought they were both losers until i logged in today. 2 late goals in the Roma game. I stopped watching a minute before the 2nd one. And just as i suspected that Hawks game was a trap. Couldn't figure out why it was -2. Wanted to do the Wizards at half time but fell asleep.

    Balance 2694

    Racing Santandar vs Levante @ evens

    Stake 35


    Stromgodset vs Odd Grenland @ 2.25

    Stake 20


    Korona Kiecle vs Wisla Krakow @ evens

    Stake 20


    Zenit St.Petersburg vs CSKA Moscow @ 2.15

    Stake 15


    Liteks Lovech v CSKA Sofia @ evens

    Stake 15


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    #579
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Poxy late goals. Two 89th minute goals in the Santandar and Krakow games.


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    #580
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Anything interests you in the Miami game? Any tips? :D


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    #581
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I fancy Miami to get it done. Don't like the -6 line though. Think it's a bit over inflated. So might wait to in play. Hope the Celtics jump out to an early lead and take a lower line. -2 to -3 maybe. It's what i'm doing with the Bulls game now. Without Howard i think the Magic slips behind in the 4th. Hoping to get a -1 or -2 line in that one.


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    #582
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Been waiting the entire game for this.

    Bulls at Magic @ 1.90

    Can get them for +1.5 but it's only 1.66.

    Stake 40


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    #583
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Damn that was close. A fraction of a second late outta Nelson's hand. My patience paid off for that line. And Rose is a beast by the way. Can thank him for forcing Nelson to pump fake at the end.


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    #584
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Slight loss on the day. Should have just went with the Heat. Didn't think they would have dominated that much. Well Boston just played shít in fairness too.

    Balance 2670.36.


    Vasteras vs Atvidaberg @ evens

    Stake 35


    Assyriska Sodertalje vs Hammarby (Over 2.5) @ 2.05

    Stake 25


    Real Zaragoza vs Getafe @ 2.10

    Stake 20


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    #585
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Great shout last night on Miami. Waited on hot them -3 in play. Was easy money. Anything tonight tickle your fancy?


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    #586
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I wanted to get on the Wizards +7 as i expected Doc to sit most of the starters. Found he out was sitting them but the bookies got wind of it early too. Best you'd get is Wizards +1. But if you can get anything over +4 to +5 on the Wizards in play i'd take it. Given that Garnett, Rondo and Pierce are out i think the 189 line is a bit high too. Think it will go under.

    Also in the Mavs at Rockets game Scola and Lowry are out. So i'd fancy the Mavs to win by 5+ points. But i just heard that Kidd might be sitting this one out too. So i'm gonna wait on in play for that one.


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    #587
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    had a few quid on the unders in the Celtics game from earlier. PP seem to be getting better with in play bets on basketball recently so I hope they offer some live betting on the Celtics game tonight. Thanks for the tips. Good luck with your bets.


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    #588
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Don't think they'll have it unless they just put up the half time lines. I moved money into Bet365 as they do nearly all the nba games in play.

    This should be a stream to the Celtics game.

    http://xenogentv.com/


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    #589
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Thanks I might call in a bet in play. I thought they were getting better but i was in live help and they said the nest live betting they have for basketball is tomorrow at 4 or something. Wasters! Can get Wizards plus 2.5. If i do a in play bet i have to ring them before 1. As that is the time they close. So i retract my comments about PP getting better with live betting. eejits. thanks for the stream


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    #590
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    If you don't already have one it's well worth opening an account with Bet365 for the basketball alone. They have the games up a lot earlier in the day too.

    It's crazy. Wizards are down 11 to the Celtics and are still only +3.5. But once Boston start rotating i think Washington win it. Probably even win straight up.


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    #591
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Yeah I'd love to get a bet365 account but the only place that takes my maestro card at the time was Paddy Power.


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    #592
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    The line was 7.5 on betfair...got on it!


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    #593
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    It was in that region all day until the news came out about Boston's starting 5.

    Celtics at Wizards @ 2.20

    Was gonna wait for +4.5 or greater but no sign of the bookies coming down on that. They know once Boston subs out the Wizards will be much stronger. So i'm pretty confident Washington wins this straight up. Could even win by 10 points+.

    Stake 50


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    #594
    keysersoze0330
    Registered Users Posts: 2,051 ✭✭✭keysersoze0330


    How can a team allow another team score 15 points without reply in a basketball game?


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    #595
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    When you're the Wizards and you let a bunch of D leaguers run amok against you. 60 a piece going into the 4th. They better get up for their last home game of the season. Green is horrible and they're letting him get off with 16 points.


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    #596
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play

    Mavericks (-1.5) at Rockets @ 1.83

    Stake 40


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    #597
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Cheers for awaring me that the celtics weren't playing the big lads! Only saw your post at the half, was going to take Wizards @ 23/10 but took them +5.5 to be a bit safer. Looks good now, they're up by 6 in the 4th. Hopefully they win it easy


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    #598
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Shít game but Crawford with that 3 put me on the edge of the seat. Nervy ending but the win in the bag in OT. Now just need the Mavs to kick it up a gear.


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    #599
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Shakthar Donetsk vs Barcelona @ 2.25

    Stake 35


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    #600
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Sick! I had under 189 and it goes to overtime. Still get a puxh though so not all that bad. Im gonna wait untill the team news come out before putting a bet on. I think he will put on a real weak team with the big fixture againt Real Madrid at the weekend. Shakhtar might not be a bad price.


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    #601
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Both NBA bets need OT to come through but finished as i expected with Washington winning outright and Dallas winning by 7.

    Balance 2795.69


    Hard luck criticeyes. The ref was quite lenient with the Celtics in OT. Davis traveled twice but sent him to the foul line and he nailed all 4. I thought the line was 189.5 so was thinking you were ok but that might have been on bet365. They seem to use half figures while PP use whole numbers mostly.

    Anyways my thinking behind Barca is that Shakhtar have their entire back line out through suspension or injury. Adriano is carrying an injury too but may play. They also lost against 10 men at the weekend. They know they ain't gonna beat Barca 5-0 so they don't really have much to play for. Although Barca don't have to do much either but sit back. But i don't remember many Barca games where they sit back. My big fear is a draw but Barca at those odds was just too good to pass up. I reckon they'll rest a few players but they can't change their entire team. Read an interview yesterday and apparently Messi will play. The team just ticks around him no matter who plays.


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