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Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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    #632
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I wanna take the Thunder to win the series against the Nuggets but the odds are a bit low. But i just found good odds on Viktoria Plzen to win today in the Czech league. This team won me a good few quid before the break and i'm gonna stick with them today to beat lowly Pribram. They drew a hard game against Jablonic recently and then lost in the cup. I'm pretty confident that they will get the win today. So i'm going to include them in a double with OKC to win the series.


    Oklahoma City Thunder to win series vs Denver Nuggets @ 1.47
    Pribram vs Viktoria Plzen @ 1.70

    Total odds 2.50

    Stake 50


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    #633
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Gomel wins convincingly while Malmo had to rely on a 90th minute winner against 10 men for the second half. Almost had the stake returned on the Mainz game except for a cracker near the end against 10 men Borussia M'bach who defended well until conceeding that late goal. Plzen also won easily and fulfils it's role in the NBA bet i wanted a decent odds.

    Balance 2607.57 (385 in play on nba bets)


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    #634
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Chicago Bulls to win the O Brien trophy @ 5.00

    Stake 20


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    #635
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Man Utd vs Man City @ 2.25

    Stake 30


    Real Madrid vs Barcelona @ 2.25

    Stake 30

    I hate Man Utd but they own Man City. There's no Tevez and looking at past games between the 2 Man City haven't really troubled Man Utd. The treble is on this year so it's not a game United are gonna take lightly.

    Barcelona are just class and i think El clasico will further show why they are top and not Madrid. They keep the ball too well and if they play anywhere close to their last meeting they should win. Can't give much reasons for the above 2 games other than i'll regret not taking them when the final whistles blow. Just have a feeling both win.


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    #636
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Polonia Bytom v Polonia Warszawa @ 2.25

    Warszawa are on the back of 2 good wins so they come into this game with a bit of momentum and are a way better team than their league position shows. They are also a way better team than Bytom but have been a mess for most of this year and it's quite the surprise that they are down in the bottom half. I bet on them a few times last year and they usually get nice little streaks going when confidence is high. So i'm hoping they are in the midst of one here. Bytom were leaky at the back as it was and i was reading that they miss their captain defender which is a big blow for them. They are also missing a leading goalscorer.

    Stake 35


    Halmstads v Goteborg @ 2.25

    Goteborg had one of the worst away records in the league last season and it continued on into the pre season. Despite a heavy win last game against a poor Trellborg team they are still a very unorganized team that don't have much options up front. I noticed last season that you can find great value in this league as it's so unpredictable at times. One team can win 4-0 one week a la Goteborg and then get beat away from home 2-0 the next week. And against a good Halmstads team i think that's what will happen here today which is why there are good odds on them. If this was middle of the season i could see this being around 1.57 or something.

    Stake 20


    I've also done a accumulator with what i think has a decent chance of coming off as i liked them all as singles.

    Barcelona @ 2.37
    Man Utd @ evens
    Valencia @ evens
    Pata to score anytime @ 1.90
    Reading vs Leicester (both to score) @ 1.61

    Total odds 28.3

    Stake 10


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    #637
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play bet

    Pacers at Bulls (-5.5) @ 1.83

    The Bulls gave up a higher quarter than i expected in the 1st but brought it back in the 2nd to finish 4 points down at the half. I can see them tightening up on D now and getting some runs going to bring win by more than 11 points. Maybe wishful thinking as Indy do look like they are up for this game. But to hear their coach say at the half that he expects the Bulls to come out and get a run going doesn't show much confidence in them continuing their current level.

    Stake 200


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    #638
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Meh fúck that. Can't see a 20 point win in the 4th so reckon the Bulls bets are done. Maybe it might inflate the lines a bit for the next one in the series cause the Bulls are just not playing today and the Pacers are playing well beyond their norm.


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    #639
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Any tips for the Lakers game?


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    #640
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Sorry only seeing this now. The Laker game was one i was going to stay away from. I wanted to see what play off team showed up. And looking at the score now it was a wise decision. Only one so far looking at how wrong i got the Heat and Bulls games. But the Pacers and 76ers just played well beyond most imagined they would. I quite fancy the Thunder to win by about 3-4 points tonight. Gonna wait till in play on that though.


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    #641
    rossit
    Registered Users Posts: 1,126 ✭✭✭rossit


    do ya reckon the thunder will cover the 6 pt handicap


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    #642
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I would have been confident enough before the start of the play offs but only the Mavericks have covered the spread so far. That's 1 team outta 6 games and i fear it's putting added pressure on OKC to get a good start on home court. It also gives a Denver side that has coped well since Anthony left a bit of confidence and might play with no fear. I wouldn't go big if taking the -6. If you can it would be worth it to see how the game is going first.


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    #643
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play bet

    Nuggets at Thunder (-2.5) @ 1.86

    Stake 100


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    #644
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Once again i like the Bulls tonight but gonna wait for an in play bet. In every game so far you could get a way better line than what was out pre game. So i'll be hoping for a 3-5 point lead by the Pacers at some stage. I can't see the Pacers shooting % being anywhere close to last game and the Bulls D playing a lot more like what we seen all season and in the final 3 minutes of the last game. Don't think there will be any playing around tonight and will look to head to Indiana leading the series 2-0 and try get the job done on the road.


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    #645
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Raging i fell asleep last night before the half as i would have got -5.5 shortly after the half when the Pacers held 6 point lead. Bulls won by 6 in the end.

    Probably won't be around later for the Blazers/Mavs game but i think Portland keeps this close and possibly wins. They underperformed in the last game with their 2 biggest players not hitting the figures they should have been. +3.5 looks good but i reckon you'll get a better spread in play. I'll edit this if i take it pre game. Suppose i can always bet on the phone when out.


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    #646
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Any tips for tonight?


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    #647
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Sorry was out till now. Like the bulls to cover the -1.5 for the 4th quarter. Haven't seen the game but they are better closers and need to keep putting the points up. Sticking 30 on that. Also like the blazers to win later. But not by the -5 they are at now. -2.5 or maybe up to -3.5 is the highest I'd go.


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    #648
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Paddy Power are offering an enhanced special on the basketball tonight. Knicks to beat Celtics
    Magic to beat Hawks
    Lekers to beat Hornets
    @ 7/2.
    What ya think? Alright value


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    #649
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    It's decent odds all right and is going with the home favorites except for the Lakers. Actually the only one i'd be confident on winning is the Lakers. They know they need to kick it up a gear and even though the are on the road they are still 1-1 and should come out to play. The Celtics have limited the Knicks to under 93 points in both games so far. That is keeping them over 10 points below their season average on the road. The Celtics are a play off teama and Doc will try close this out as quick as possible and rest up. I think the Magic will beat the Hawks but the spread is only a point and half each way. I'm not mad about tight lines in play offs. Shows the bookies don't really have a clue either.


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    #650
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Hope i swayed ye to stay away from that treble. Lakers look like the only team that will win.


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    #651
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Treble of

    QPR vs Hull @ 1.57
    Viktoria Plzen vs Slavia Praha @ 1.57
    FC Copenhagen vs Silkeborg @ 1.50

    Total odds 3.70

    Stake 50


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    #652
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Hey any tips tonight. What way are ya leaning on the games? I am drawn to the Spurs -1 but what do i know?


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    #653
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Sorry didn't see it. I didn't bet last night. I didn't really have an opinion on that game but i meant to get on the Grizzlies to take the series. It was 2.10 yesterday evening. They're 1.38 now. Not a bad price if you doubled it up with something because at 3-1 it's a lot of pressure on the Spurs. Tonight i like the Hornets to keep it within the 11 point spread. But i haven't taken anything yet.


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    #654
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Cool. Was tempted to take Spurs -1 last night haha delighted I didn't. Looking forward to hearing some of your stuff later.


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    #655
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    A few loses in the soccer and the basketball but it's not too bad. Still a lot of basketball games left. Had my stake returned due to the red card in the United game. My 2nd Bulls bet on their first game ended up as a push as it was -5 and not -5.5. I'd been using bet365 lately but had used PP and they don't use halfs. Also with the Thunder taking the series in a great game last night that brought in my double. Forgot i still have 195 still in play on NBA bets so not as bad as i thought.

    Balance 2681.17


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    #656
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Celtics vs Heat (Celtics to win the series) @ 2.60

    Gonna risk a sizeable amount on this as i really fancy the Celtics to take this series. I don't like this Heat team and despite their star player quality i don't think they have the togetherness or chemistry to make it through the play offs against a very sharp Celtics team that has already embarassed them a few times this season. The Celtics will come into this series fresher having swept the Knicks while the Heat dropped a game and were kept under pressure throughout the entire series by the 76ers. It was a hard fought win last night. But what i hate most about their heat is their bench. They just don't have enough quality to fill in when the big 3 are rotated. They never have all 3 off the floor but if just one of them can be kept in check the Heat are in trouble. Especially with the abscence of Miller which limits their 3 point game. Allen on the other hand can sink it in high pressure situations with ease behind the arc. He's also key on D and with the amount of screens he sets up i think he can tire Wade out and cut down his productivity. Rondo has been phenominal for the Celtics in the play offs so far as he was last year. There's just so much going for the Celtics from their coach right down to their bench productivity that gives them the edge over Miami in my opinion. I can see a 4-2 series for Boston.

    Stake 500


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    #657
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Hvidore IF v Aarhus (-1) @ 2.10

    Stake 21.17


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    #658
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    Huuuuge stake on the Celtics!!! Hope that comes in for you that'd be nice.


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    #659
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I was gonna go a grand but the maxium on bet365 was 600 odd and i think even at that it was saying something about trading. Really like the bet. If it's not looking good i may be able to hedge out of it anyways and save some face.


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    #660
    jive
    Registered Users Posts: 5,762 ✭✭✭jive


    I'd follow you on it (not the stake!) but I've exams coming so won't be able to watch most of the games. Wouldn't get much enjoyment out of just checking the result!


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    #661
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Yeah for series bets it's way more enjoyable following the games live. I switched around my work schedule so i can catch most of the playoffs. Wish ESPN showed more instead of baseball and hockey.


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