Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

(bet365)

Oklahoma City Thunder to win the series vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 2.30

Stake 100

El Horseboxo

In play bet (PP)

Lakers (+16) at Mavericks @ 1.90

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

In play (pp)

Bulls (-1) at Hawks @ 1.90

Stake 60

El Horseboxo

Gonna start using a proper staking system based on units. But i'll include the monetary value rather than unit amount. 1 unit = 100 euro. The lowest i will ever go is half a unit, which for those of you shíte at math is 50 euro. This is just going to be for singles i imagine. I may just bet whatever on doubles, trebles, etc.


Lugano v Servette

Stake 100


Suduva Marijampole v Zalgiris Vilnius

Stake 50


Treble of

Almeria v Villarreal @ 1.57
Levante v Barcelona @ 1.30
Betis v Tenerife

Total odds 2.72

Stake 25

El Horseboxo

Ha disaster of a day.

CriticEyes

Any thoughts on the basketball tonight?

El Horseboxo

Withdrew down to a grand ahead of the new seasons. Made a fair bit of profit last season despite some big losses near the end in the NBA. So hopefully i can duplicate that and have a better year. Just need to stop losing interest and making half arsed bets.

Balance 1000

El Horseboxo

Chelsea vs West Brom @ evens.

In play bet. Chelsea losing 0-1.

Stake 50

El Horseboxo

The Chelsea bet above won with a late Chelsea goal.

Saints at Packers (Will either team score 3 unanswered times? = No) @ 2.40

I've never bet this before and i'm not mad on betting on opening week of the season in US sports. Sat out last weeks NCAAF and i'm glad i did as some bets i fancied failed to come in. Anyways this bet just jumped out at me for some reason as i think this game has shootout potential or at least tit for tat. And if the game doesn't turn out that way i still think with GB's defense and a NO D that finished 4th in least passing yards allowed last season neither team with score 3 times without the other team at least grabbing a field goal. A lot of teams suffer from a Superbowl hangover and the Packers might be a bit slow off the mark to begin with. The Saints staying within 4 points is a bet i'd fancy a few more games into the season mainly due to Brees being underdog on a nationally televised game. I think the Packers will win and it might come down to 3. The magic number in the world of NFL betting.

Stake 50

El Horseboxo

Game ended up being a shoot out last night with neither team scoring 3 times without the other scoring. Like most American sports the early weeks tend to be high scoring as defenses take longer to settle than offenses. And the bookies are usually slow to react to it. Could be some value for the next week or two on overs. Last nights line was 47.5 I think. Game ended up wit 70 odd points. Anyways the bet won.

Balance 1120

El Horseboxo

Stanford (-20.5) at Duke @ 1.90

Can't see past Stanford not covering this against a team that managed 35 yards on 4 possessions last week. Luck should have a field day and i doubt a back door cover will even be a worry here.

Stake 50

Peyton Manning

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Stanford (-20.5) at Duke @ 1.90

Can't see past Stanford not covering this against a team that managed 35 yards on 4 possessions last week. Luck should have a field day and i doubt a back door cover will even be a worry here.

Stake 50

Fish in a barrell mate

El Horseboxo

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Fish in a barrell mate

Indeed. Thought it was heading towards one of those unpredictable games when it looked to be finishing 10-7 at the half. Really expected it to be over by then but Luck didn't let us down in the end.

El Horseboxo

Stanford come out firing in the second half and well cover the spread.

Balance 1165.45

A few games in the NFL interest but due to it being the opening week i think i'll spread the money around and keep the stakes low rather than jumping on one particular bet. Some teams are slow to start while others come out blazing. And usually it's the teams you don't expect. It's also a difficult week for bookies to cap too so if you are willing to play some risky bets you can clean up.


Panthers at Cardinals (Fitzgerald over 75 yards) @ 1.83

I'd love to take the Cards -6.5 but i just can't justify it in week 1. The Panthers were bad last year as were the Cardinals. But that was mainly due to the departure of Warner. Carolina haven't improved too much but they do have an exciting QB in Newton, Williams is back and have brought in a good TE in Shockey. So i'll avoid that for now. Maybe in play. What interests me is the hook up between Kolb and Fitzgerald. It should be as easy as Kolb launching the ball into a weak secondary and Fitzgerald pulling them down. Think he'll break for at least one big one in this to get over the 75 total yards.

Stake 24

Steelers (+1.5) at Ravens @ 1.90

Great game to open the Sunday football season. Both teams in the top 3 defensive units last year so will be a physical tough game for both offenses. But i think the Ravens have been weakened a bit compared to last season and i don't trust Flacco to get it done over Ben. He's not as much of a game changer as Ben can be for the Steelers. The Ravens should be still in the trying to gel transition to the new additions to their team while the Steelers have impressed in pre season continuing on from last year. They have too many people in their team that will be up for this and i can see them winning straight up.

Stake 22


I'll edit in anything else i take in play. I'm a little hesitant on some bets at present.

El Horseboxo

Don't think anyone could of predicted that scoreline in the Steelers at Ravens game or the amount of turnovers from Pittsburg. Liked the Lions, Colts, Bills and Eagles today but never went with any of them due to the first week. However i liked the Titans and Falcons too. So probably best i stayed away.

Just one fun bet for the night most likely. An accumulator of TD scorers.


Larry Fitzgerald @ 1.57
Vincent Jackson @ 2.25
Hakeem Knicks @ 1.83
Brandon Lloyd @ 1.66

Total odds 10.80

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

No wins yesterday in the NFL.

Balance 1109.45

In play bet.

Patriots (-3.5) at Dolphins @ evens

Decent drive by the Dolphins there for the TD but don't think Bush can keep that pace up all game and i still don't trust Henne after needing 3 plays to get into the end zone. And a sneaky QB draw at that. So hoping there's no choking on the Pats part. Brady should do his part.

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

Patriots have their way on offense the whole game to bring in the win on the above bet.

Balance 1139.45


Genk vs Valencia (-1.25) @ 2.20

Genk are very lucky to be in the CL group stages and are missing a heap of first team players. Most notably De Bruyne, Joneleit and Wertelaers. The latter being their goal keeper. They haven't had a great start in Belgium either. Only winning 2 from 6 and conceding goals while at full strength against teams way way weaker than Valencia. Valencia have had a good start to La Liga and come into this game looking good. If they approach this game right it could be a 3+ goal victory. I know league form isn't exactly transferable but you really have to fancy the away side to win by at least 2 goals. Went for the -1.0, -1.5 asian handicap as a bit of insurance though.

Stake 50


Dortmund vs Arsenal (Both to score = yes) @ 1.72
Porto vs Shakhtar (Both to score = yes) @ 1.80

Totals odds 3.10

Was gonna do 2 singles on these but as it's the opening round of the Champions league i didn't wanna go too big on odds below evens. All teams are attacking and vulnerable at the back. Doesn't always mean goals but provides great potential. I really fancy each of the above teams to score. I wouldn't dare touch the 1x2 market on it. I think Shakhtar are even capable of throwing up a surprise against a different Porto side in some aspects. And despite Arsenals slow start to the PL and weak showing against Udinese i still think they have it in them to win away against Dortmund after making some good attacking signings and possibly strengthening at the back.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

The double wins while Valencia screwed me over. First round games are really hard to judge and tonight there were some shock results or ones not expected at least. So glad i stayed away. That Giggs bastard scoring before the half ruined my double chance bet i was gonna take start of the second half at odds of 2.62. Anyways slight loss of 8 quid last night.

Balance 1131.45

Got in early on some American Football bets late last night. Just getting the chance to add now.

Auburn (+3) at Clemson @ evens

I don't really get this line which was at +4 before dropping. I assume down to some heavy poundage stateside. Auburn have owned Clemson in everyone of the previous meetings in recent history. Not that they destroyed them as there have been a few OT's too. But beat them by never fading out of the game. So taking them starting off with a FG jumps right out at me.

Auburn have gone 2-0 as have Clemson. Auburn struggled in week 1 and had to come back against Utah but they won against a good MS team last week. With Cam also in the NFL now i think the 3 points are a bit of an overreaction as his replacement, Trotter has done quite well. Clemson have had 2 easy games and managed to concede TD's quite easily early on. Their OL haven't been offering much protection for Boyd as he has had 7 sacks in the past 2 weeks. Up against a good Auburn team you have to feel this number will increase. They haven't looked too good defending the run either. Not to mention they have only managed one sack on D too. Considering the above points i gotta roll with the Tigers. The Auburn Tigers that is.

Stake 50



West Virginia (+2) at Maryland @ 1.90

Another game with a bit of an overreaction i think. Mainly due to Maryland's win over Miami. A Miami team that was missing a load of starters. Maryland haven't played since week 1 so don't bring any momentum into this game. Whereas WV come into this game with 2 big wins. Albeit against weaker opposition. In their last game they didn't get rolling till the second half so that could explain the line a bit further. I really rate Smith, the WVU QB and i'm expecting a big game from him. I expect Maryland to lose this game by at least a TD if WVU play the way i envision it.

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

I haven't bet on these yet but i'm liking the following.

Boise (-20) at Toledo @ 1.90

Boise with Moore leading them are a dangerous team and i really like them because it's as if their coach, Peterson looks at spreads and wants to cover them. As seen against Idaho last year when he brought in his starters to with less than 2 mins to go when winning by 28 points. Obviously it's not to appease bettors but more so voters come bowl selection time. Boise always seem to play like they have a point to prove and they really play to the end. The only worry i'd have about a spread like the above is the back door cover. But i don't think that should be a worry and i like that the figure is under the 3 TD mark. It's a Friday night game so nationally televised. Gonna be a lot of eyes on them and i think they step up. I'll most likely take this bet.


Also like Oklahoma state -13.5, Stanford -10, Wisconsin -17 and Iowa -3. But i'll have to look into these further before committing.


In the NFL i like the Ravens -5.5 and Green Bay -9.5. Wanna look at a few team totals when they come out too.

El Horseboxo

Gone with a 3 team teaser bet.

Packers (-2.5) at Panthers @ 1.19
Boise (-13) at Toledo @ 1.32
OSU (-6.5) at Tulsa @ 1.27

Total odds 2.17

Just don't see the Packers losing to the Panthers. This could be a blow out. And even if it isn't the winning margin should be at least a FG between the two. Newton is in a bad spot after a good game last week. Historically rookie QB's have a let down week after a high performance previous one. Not to mention Rodgers should shred the Panthers secondary. I even like the -9.5 in this one. I actually like all the above bets at the full handicaps which is why i'm taking this accumulator. I explained Boise above. So if i like them to win by at least 3 TD's. My confidence should be higher to win by 2. The same with OKC. They should win by at least a TD.

Stake 60

El Horseboxo

In play bet

LSU (over 16.5 points) at MSU @ evens

Was waiting for less than -3 but it never came. I can see LSU going for it more in the second half as MSU slow down in pace. They've been taking a lot of hits and personally i just feel this game has to have a few more scores. Both teams are capable and it's the tenacity of the MSU D that's stopping LSU. A few screens on the blitz and they should get into the endzone.

Stake 40

El Horseboxo

LSU wins last night in a tough defensive battle after running the MSU D into the ground late in the game. Really poor game from a betting perspective. In general too as some of the decisions just astounded me. How you give up big yards on the QB draw 4 times in one drive is beyond me. And also keep on running on the blitz. A lot of horrible penalties late in the game too. Anyways i felt like i'd just walked off the field with how much of a fight my bet had on it's hands to win. LSU finished with 19 points in the end.


I'll just copy and paste what i wrote above about Boise and add to it.


Boise (-20) at Toledo @ 1.90

Boise with Moore leading them are a dangerous team and i really like them because it's as if their coach, Peterson looks at spreads and wants to cover them. As seen against Idaho last year when he brought in his starters to with less than 2 mins to go when winning by 28 points. Obviously it's not to appease bettors but more so voters come bowl selection time. Boise always seem to play like they have a point to prove and they really play to the end. The only worry i'd have about a spread like the above is the back door cover. But i don't think that should be a worry and i like that the figure is under the 3 TD mark. It's a Friday night game so nationally televised. Gonna be a lot of eyes on them and i think they step up.

Boise are just a complete team. Strong defensive unit, strong OL and a great QB. I think Toledo are getting too much respect after going close against Ohio as i expected this line to be in the 28 mark. Toledo came close to winning due to the Ohio QB, Bauserman being totally ineffective on offense. His receivers were wide open but couldn't hit them with his predictable plays. Doesn't take much to figure out you blitz a hesitant QB. I'd actually fancy Boise to cover the -20 spread against the buckeyes. And Boise are a far superior team than Ohio. I can see Boise scoring close to or over 50 points tonight and maybe only giving up 10-15. I will be utterly shocked if they don't cover. As i mentioned earlier. Boise play to the end whereas other teams in stronger divisions tend to take the foot off the gas when the game is in the bag. Boise need to continually put up points to stop people talking them down due to some of the weak opposition they play. So on that note i have no backdoor cover fears and i am really confident Boise roll on Toledo tonight.

Stake 100


Balance 931.45 (240 in play)

El Horseboxo

Boise manage to cover the -20 spread with a win by 25 points which i'm still shocked came in given how they played and their attitude towards the game. The late TD with their second string was something i really didn't expect. Biggest anti climatic win ever.

Balance 1121.45 (140 in play)

I'll be putting up a few other bets in the NCAAF today after a workout. No better way to start a Saturday morning than heavy box squats.

El Horseboxo

Stanford (-9) at Arizona @ 1.90

Very difficult to go against Andrew Luck and Stanford. He has had a great start getting his team 2-0 and throwing 6 TD's. But Stanford aren't all about the QB position as they are very effective at running the ball too. Which has lead them to destroying their 2 opponents so far. Their defense is ranked number 2 against the run which bodes well for them as Arizona have been really struggling. I don't think they even broke the 50 yard barrier against Oklahoma last week. Arizona may also miss their star receiver Criner who had surgery last week. This reflects how important a big game from him hinges on Arizona making a game of it as when he was listed as being back the Standford line fell down as low as -8 after opening up at -11.5. Now that he is questionable and may just have limited involvement the line raised a bit. Regardless of his plays i still fancy Standford to win by 2 TD's or more.

Stake 50



Oklahoma (-3) at Florida state @ 1.90

Yet another game where i think a team is getting too much respect. So far the 2 i bet on have gone my way so i will stick with Oklahoma who arguably have the best offense in college ball. FSU are a good team but i think they are slightly considered a bit better than they actually are. They will bring a tough game to Oklahoma and will probably stay close until the 3rd quarter. But OK should have too much for them down the stretch and i just don't think FSU can stay within a touchdown of them. I envision similar games to LSU and Boise. Maybe won't be as convincing a win as they are capable of. But they will get it done. Just too much going for the Sooners for them not to win. Better QB in Jones, better offense across the board, extra preparation time, more used to being in a position of big games and dealing with pressure. Florida state are the opposite. They don't have experience in this spot. Their team is young and quite raw. And it's been a long long time since they've been up against a D like OU's. In my opinion it all points towards a road win.

Stake 50


Texas Tech (-20.5) at New Mexico @ 1.83
Wisconsin (-16) at Northern Illinois @ 1.76

Total odds 3.24


New Mexico have put up just 13 points in their 2 games with 10 of them coming in their first week. Doege, the Texas QB has put up almost as much yards in their one game as NM has put up in their 2 games. NM got destroyed by Arkansas and couldn't throw or run the ball against them. I rate TT higher than Arkansas currently so i just fail to see how New Mexico put points up against Texas. And how Texas fail to score 1 or 2 TD's each quarter. The -20.5 spread just looks too easy.


Illinois aren't the home team as the game is being played at Soldier field, the home of the Chicago Bears. A venue which i think Wisconsin will relish coming to. They are rolling right now and their new QB Wilson has slotted right into the team. He has a good passing game to compliment the Badgers strong rushing game. They can also smoother teams on defense and are really good at stopping the run as seen against Oregon where they allowed only 23 yards. Wisconsin does have a few defensive injury concerns but they get Frederick back which should boost their OL. Northern Illinois should really struggle today and while i expect them to put some points up on the board. Wisky should cover the spread if all goes according to plan.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

And a small treble of

Wyoming at Bowling Green (Over 50) @ 1.45
Pittsburgh at Iowa (-2.5) @ 1.80
Houston (-4.5) at Louisiana Tech @ 1.66

Total odds 4.36

Not bother with write ups for the above as they are just leans i had that i didn't want to really do as singles. I think they all have a good chance of coming in so i'll just stick a tenner on them.

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

Great day yesterday going 3 from 4 and 1 from 2 on the double/treble. Auburn just came up against Clemson at their best and Houston somehow only managed to show up in the second half and eventually won by one. Still happy with yesterday bringing in almost 200 profit with Green Bay left to play to bring in the remaining treble.

Balance 1304.42 (60 in play)

El Horseboxo

Throwing up some NFL bets i took the other day and just now real quick. Just getting ready to head out for the day for the Dubs game. Oh and i also bought down .5 of a point on certain bets.


Ravens (-5.5) at Titans @ 1.90

Really hard to go against the Ravens after their thrashing of a very strong defensive unit in the Steelers. The spread looks too easy but no point over thinking about it. Just like people over thought the Eagles last week and they won comfortably.

Stake 50


Packers (-9.5) at Panthers @ 1.86

Rodgers is simply phenomenal and for him and his Packers to win by a TD and FG is too good to ignore. Sure Cam had a good week against Arizona. But today he will face pressure like he has never faced before. It's a good spot for the Packers too as Rookie QB's tend to have a let down week after a big week. They also lost last week so that will have hurt the Panthers a bit. This could be a very big margin win for GB come the end of the 4th.

Stake 50


Steelers (-13.5) at Seahawks @ 1.83

After a very shocking result last week against the Ravens i expect them to come out this week very fired up. It's not that they even lost to their rivals. But the manner in which it occured. The Steelers are a very strong defensive team and they were exposed last week. I just can't see that happening 2 weeks in a row. Especially against the Seahawks who are fighting for the number 1 draft pick next year. The Steelers should put up 24+ points and i think the Seahawks will be lucky to put up 10. They just offer nothing on offense this year and their OL will make it easy to get to Jackson.

Stake 50


I'm not big on doubles for big stakes in the NFL due to me having a big habit of getting 50% of them right and struggling to match 2 winners. So since me and Archie agree on 3 bets i'm gonna add his 2 doubles at small stakes. Since i'm a Charger fan and i like the spot they are in i'll take his bet with confidence. Patriots were exposed big time last week once they felt the game was in the bag. So if the Dolphins can put up points. You have to consider SD to the same and more. Wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers win straight up actually.


Steelers (-13.5) at Seahawks @ 1.83
Chargers (+7.5) at Patriots @ 1.76

Total odds 3.24

Stake 10


Packers (-9.5) at Panthers @ 1.86
Ravens (-5.5) at Titans @ 1.90

Total odds 3.56

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

One more for the craic. Just picked 5 people i think have a good chance of getting into the end zone this weekend based on how they looked last week and picking players that weren't targeted last week but are big stars in their teams.

Devery Henderson @ 2.40
Greg Jennings @ 1.50
Dez Bryant @ evens
Vincent Jackson at 1.80
Owen Daniels @ 2.50

Total odds 32.40

Stake 5

El Horseboxo

Not much luck yesterday in the NFL on the game front. Just the Steelers coming in. Really surprised that the Ravens got torn up by Hasselbeck. And Cam is looking like this is his second or third year in the NFL by putting up another 400 yard game against the Packers. Anyways my touchdown bet also won. It was down as lost so i got on to bet365 help and told them Dez Bryant didn't play. So they settled based on a 4 fold. But they gave me the 15% parlay bonus based on a 5 fold. It's a promotion on US sports. So the total pay out was 93.15. Nice return from a fiver. Also the treble i had above of Green Bay -2.5, OSU and Boise won too. Not a bad weekend overall with over 300 profit.

Balance 1444.27

Oh and up the fúckin Dubs. Super day yesterday.

Eire-Dearg

Ravens and Packers caught a lot of people yesterday!

And great TD accumulator, fair play to 365 for sorting it out for you too.