Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

Backstreet Moyes

Backed NY Giants -7 already but looking for somebody to back for first touchdown. Going to watch the game later and would like to back somebody for some interest.

Eire-Dearg

Rams are poor enough against the run so Ahmad Bradshaw could be your best bet.

I think Lance Kendricks (great young Tight End for the Rams) could be great value @ 3.50 to score anytime.

El Horseboxo

Considering taking the Giants to win on anything is quite dependent on how much Nicks will be involved in my opinion. Both teams are so banged up on offense and defense. I don't know who's going to be making the big plays in the passing game. Bradford has a sprained or broken finger or something. So he might be limited in how deep he'll throw. The Rams have a decent pass D under ex Giant, Spagnuolo. The Eagles ran through them last week though so i expect Bradshaw to clock up a significant amount of yards. Although he'll probably share some touches with Jacobs. A prop bet on him to exceed 71.5 could be worth it. With Jackson out Williams will take over. Amendola is also out. So there could be a lot of ground movement in the game. The under 44 could also be another one to look at as a lot of time could be ate off the clock. However MNF games tend to be high scoring. Just so hard to predict with so many injuries on both sides.

El Horseboxo

Glad i stayed away last night. Need to continue being sensible and not just betting because the option is there.

Looking at the college games this week and not too much jumping out at me yet. Gonna research right through the entire card and try my hand again with an old capping system i used a few years ago.

After a quick scan i'll be waiting to see what the game total is for Oklahoma State at Texas A&M. Anything up to about 72 i'd be feeling very confident of it coming in. LSU -5 at West Virginia sticks out too. Toledo could win outright in Syracuse. Also Baylor should win by more than 3 TD's against Rice. Georgia Tech to win by a TD looks good too.

El Horseboxo

Done a double of

Berbatov to score anytime @ 1.83
Chu Young Park to score anytime @ 1.61

Total odds 2.96

Stake 14.27

El Horseboxo

Neither scored last night which i was quite surprised. Was a toss up between Berbatov and Owen. But Park failed to score anyways. Just used the uneven figure in my balance anyways.

Balance 1430

Ok on to NCAAF.

Tulsa at Boise St (-28.5) @ 1.90

I don't know why the Boise St line has fell to -28.5. Considering they are at home on their infamous blue turf which other teams have complained about in the past. Something to do with not being able to see the ball or movement of players. The Tulsa QB, Kinnie had to leave the game last week against OSU after suffering a knee injury. They also play on a short week after the game on Saturday night was delayed till almost midnight due to bad weather. Wheras Boise played last Friday night. So they are the more rested and prepared team. Kinne controls that Tulsa offense. Henderson who steps in has very little college experience. Despite Moore's brilliant game last week Boise looked a little off at times and didn't seem to really care at times. They were winning and on the road. But at home in front of their fans they will run the score up. Last year, granted in a different division they never won by less than 34 points all season. Feel very confident Boise should win by more than 4 TD's. I would have stayed away only for the absence of the Tulsa QB.

Stake 60




LSU (-5.5) at West Virginia @ 1.90

One of the main reasons i'm going with this bet is the LSU defense. They are a beast at stopping the run and allow an average of 190 yards through the air. They are effectively a NFL defense. LSU is also a running team. They keep on running and running and they tire teams out. But they can throw the ball this year too. Lee is a decent enough QB and fits in well. But Miles is a bit conservative on that front. West Virginia let Maryland put up 30 points last week and they can't rush for shít. Average only 67 yards RPG. I think they are gonna struggle big time against this LSU D. Defense is what wins you games. You can do whatever you want on offense but if you can't stop the other team from going up the field you'll lose as much as you win. LSU never really got it going against a resilient Miss St last week until the wore them down in the 4th quarter. I expect a similar type of game the weekend. Probably low scoring and LSU winning by about 10 points.

Stake 40

El Horseboxo

Rosenborg vs Sogndal (John Chibuike to score anytime) @ 2.30

Rosenborg with 17 goals in their past 3 games. Chibuike with 4 goals in 2 games since joining. Had read this last night on betting advice from a fella that knows his Norwegian leagues. And i seen it's a popular bet here on the football tips thread so i'll jump on board. Good odds against a team that will probably throw everybody behind the ball. But Rosenborg have a chance to save their season and at least qualify for Europe. With the form they're in and the prize on the line you'd expect them to score twice here. Good chance Chibuike is one of them.

Stake 20

SteelyDanJalapeno

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Rosenborg vs Sogndal (John Chibuike to score anytime) @ 2.30

Rosenborg with 17 goals in their past 3 games. Chibuike with 4 goals in 2 games since joining. Had read this last night on betting advice from a fella that knows his Norwegian leagues. And i seen it's a popular bet here on the football tips thread so i'll jump on board. Good odds against a team that will probably throw everybody behind the ball. But Rosenborg have a chance to save their season and at least qualify for Europe. With the form they're in and the prize on the line you'd expect them to score twice here. Good chance Chibuike is one of them.

Stake 20

Happy Days

El Horseboxo

Yeah it's nice when a game pans out how it's supposed to. Thought it was dead in the water after he missed a peno. Good goal from him too.

El Horseboxo

In play bet

NC State at Cincinnati (Over 55.5) @ 1.90

2 teams with decent offense but little to no defense. Usually spells for the over. 2 opening drives put up no points but i have a feeling this game will open up and there will be mistakes on both sides.

Stake 30

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In play bet

NC State at Cincinnati (Over 55.5) @ 1.90

2 teams with decent offense but little to no defense. Usually spells for the over. 2 opening drives put up no points but i have a feeling this game will open up and there will be mistakes on both sides.

Stake 30

Congrats, even when I hate missing your In Play bets, as you are usually right with them :cool:

El Horseboxo

Thanks. A bit lucky with that bet last night. It's not often 2 teams wit bad offense and crap defense come up blank on their first drives. So I took advantage of it. In games where the line is high and it falls greater than a field goal or touch down and still in the first quarter I'll usually go for it. How many times do ya have your over or under bet be a field goal or less from coming in. Really thought last night would've went over 60 tho. NC State were just brutal.

El Horseboxo

Balance 1383 (100 in play)

Last 2 bets win to add to a decent run.

Gonna go with a few doubles that i like. Try maximize profit from a lesser risk. I took half a point off the spread on certain bets. As reflected by the ones with the slightly lesser odds.


North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-6.5) @ 1.83
Florida (-19) at Kentucky @ 1.76

Total odds 3.24

The -6.5 is a gift in my opinion. I can see GT winning this by double digits. It's their coming out party tonight and they are gonna keep trying to run up the score in front of their fans. They're just gonna have too much for NC and run through them. They recently set the ncaaf record for most yards per carry with 12.1 yards. NC gave up almost 200 yards last week against a poor Virginia team. I'd be really surprised if GT don't win by more than a TD.

If Kentucky score more than a FG or a lucky TD i'll be shocked. A shut out isn't that far off a possibility given the amount of injuries Kentucky have. I mean they were already the worst team in the SEC but with the missing players surely they must be worse. The Gators should score easily today but i just hope that when they should find themselves up in the 4th they rotate their starters looking ahead to the 'Bama game next week. The Wildcats are so poor on offense that i reckon the 2nd string D of the Gators could contain them.

Stake 25



Kansas at Miami (-12.5) @ 1.90
Oklahoma (-19) at Missouri @ 1.83

Total odds 3.48


Miami should have too much speed for Kansas and i expect them to win by close to 3 touchdowns. Kansas have no running game other than their QB, Klein. Shut him down and that's a big chunk of offense curtailed. Miami could be due a let down game but i don't think it happens today. Not on their own turf.

Oklahoma come outta a tough game and go into easier opposition this week. Could be a good spot for them to ease up a bit and just win. But these guys just wanna play and have so much on offense. Not to mention how strong they are on the other side of the ball. So a 3 TD win is kinda what i expect here.

Stake 25

El Horseboxo

Also gone with a 6 team teaser bet.

Kansas at Miami (-6.5) @ 1.33
UAB at East Carolina (-9.5) @ 1.34
Notre Dame at Pittsburg @ 1.37
North Carolina at Georgia Tech @ 1.40
Florida (-13.5) at Kentucky @ 1.34

Total odds 4.62

Stake 12

El Horseboxo

Another double

Rice at Baylor (-20.5) @ 1.90
Western Michigan at Illinois (-13.5) @ 1.83

Total odds 3.49


Rice may be looking ahead to their opening conference game next week so may not be giving this game all the fight they have in them. Not to mention RG3, the Baylor QB. If he is on form as he has been this game could be a rout.

Illinois should just have too much on offense. I was torn between going for the over here but W Michigan can struggle to put up scores against higher ranked teams. So i'll go with Illinois winning by 2 td's.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Slight loss on the day yesterday but still up on the week. Could have been disastrous had LSU and one of the doubles not won. Boise should have won only for Moore leaving the game. Can't foresee stuff like that. Some teams played like they were looking ahead to bigger games next week. Always a risk when taking big spreads. So yesterday's early games threw up some surprises. Haven't had too much luck in the NFL yet but there's a few bets that interest me that i'll post up later.

Balance 1458

El Horseboxo

A few leans so far i'm going to look into a bit more.

Patriots (-7) at Bills
Giants at Eagles (-9)
Broncos (+7) at Titans
Chargers at Chiefs (Rivers over 302.5 yards)
Jaguars at Panthers (-3)
Ravens (-5) at Rams
Jets (-3) at Raiders

Patriots at Bills (Over 54.5) (I put this game around the 59 mark)
Packers at Bears (Over 44.5) (Put this game over 47.5)
Texans at Saints (Under 50.5) (Put this game around the 44 mark)
Giants at Eagles (Over 46.5) (Put this around 49. No home statistics for Eagles yet tho)

El Horseboxo

Bought down a few points. Was gonna do some on the Eagles but they're spread has just dropped a full point. Vick is playing so not sure why. The Giants are still banged up.

Patriots (-6.5) at Bills @ 1.80
Giants at Eagles (-7) @ 1.83

Total odds 3.29

Stake 30


Jaguars at Panthers (-2.5) @ 1.80
Texans at Saints (Under 51) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.43

Stake 25

El Horseboxo

The 2 doubles lose or are just about to. Patriots losing to Bills, Eagles getting run over by the Giants and a shootout in New Orleans put me at 1/4 currently.

For the 9 games going for.


Chiefs at Chargers (-13.5) @ 1.83
Jets (-2.5) at Raiders @ 1.90

Total odds 3.49

Stake 40



Chester Taylor anytime TD @ 5.00
Vincent Jackson anytime TD @ 1.50
Michael Turner anytime TD @ 1.40

Total odds 10.49

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

In play (stupid bet didn't go thru on my phone first time. Worked out better as I got a better line as the interception only resulted in a field goal.)

Redskins at Cowboys (under 49.5) @ 1.90

Stake 150

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In play (stupid bet didn't go thru on my phone first time. Worked out better as I got a better line as the interception only resulted in a field goal.)

Redskins at Cowboys (under 49.5) @ 1.90

Stake 150

Niiiiiiiice :eek:. One of the biggest bets you did over last few months... of course I had to miss it :mad:. Any chance for future games that you could write that In Play bet is probable or something like that? As I see that waiting last night until 2am wasn't enough :cool:

Sorry for being pain in the ass, but your bets are too good to just accept missing them.

El Horseboxo

I actually wasn't going to watch the entire game. I was going to bed but decided to check bet365 on my phone before turning the tv off. Then the Redskins intercepted the ball and i they went down for just a field goal. I tried to take under 47.5 then for a stake of 100 but it didn't go through because it said i already had it added to my betslip. Seems to be a fault for the mobile version of the site on Android. Then the Cowboys had a pick and it went up to 49.5 so i jumped on that and increased the stake. Was doing a bit of chasing after no wins on Sunday. But they just got a field goal too. I had posted in the American Sports thread and Archie's log that i really liked the Under 45. From now on if there's a single game on such as SNF or MNF or even the College ball i'll post in here what i will most likely take if the line goes to something i want.

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I actually wasn't going to watch the entire game. I was going to bed but decided to check bet365 on my phone before turning the tv off. Then the Redskins intercepted the ball and i they went down for just a field goal. I tried to take under 47.5 then for a stake of 100 but it didn't go through because it said i already had it added to my betslip. Seems to be a fault for the mobile version of the site on Android. Then the Cowboys had a pick and it went up to 49.5 so i jumped on that and increased the stake. Was doing a bit of chasing after no wins on Sunday. But they just got a field goal too. I had posted in the American Sports thread and Archie's log that i really liked the Under 45. From now on if there's a single game on such as SNF or MNF or even the College ball i'll post in here what i will most likely take if the line goes to something i want.

Thanks.

Once again sorry for my complaints, but you are probably only person running log who does In Play bets and it makes difficult to follow it. And you are way too good to accept missing your picks :cool:

El Horseboxo

It's not bother to post in here if i'm at home and watching the games. Cause i always keep the betting sites open. There's too much computer and automated reaction influencing the in play lines. Like if it's the end of the 3rd quarter and someone gets into the red zone they will always inflate the line for the 1st 2 downs. But they never account for a team that may have the lead to just try run the clock in the 4th quarter. Depending on the scenario and teams playing of course you can get great value. Obviously there's a risk as with any bet but i feel the human input of actually watching and understanding the game can give the punter an edge.

El Horseboxo

Claim back the losses on Sunday with a bit of a chaser bet last night. Something i promised i wouldn't do but given the 2 interceptions in quick succession the line inflated as they must have foreseen a more open game. But it was in no way indicative of how defense the game was being played and the little options on offense due to injuries. So when it hit 49.5 i was all over it.

Balance 1488


Probably just the one bet tonight. And it's a double.

Man Utd (-1.5 AH) vs Basel @ 1.60
Bayern Munich vs Man City (+ 0.5 AH) @ 2.10

Total odds 3.36

Man Utd at home is always a tough place to score no matter who the opposition is. So i don't think i should worry too much about a team that struggled at home against Otelul Galati in the last round. They aren't doing too well in their domestic league either. They're also not too much of a defensive unit to shut Man Utd out. Also despite the injuries that United bring into this game they will have too much for them. Lindegaard is a good keeper and with DeGea having some critics he must feel he has a chance to prove himself. If Nani and Young play that is too much pace on the wings for Basel to handle. And if Wellbeck is starting he will make it difficult for the Basel defenders. As will Owen. United have too much for them not to win by a 2 goal cushion. And with Norwich at the weekend Ferguson can put out a strong enough side and rest players on Saturday/Sunday.

I know Bayern have tons of European experience and look a whole lot better this year than last year. They've 2 great wingers in Robben and Ribery and one of the best keepers in the world. But they are still liable at the back and despite Gomez getting a lot of love for scoring goals. I don't think he's a great striker as he misses so many opportunities. He's good but could struggle against what should be a defensive City side that is very fast and dangerous on the counter. As Bayern's defenders like to get forward and should do since playing at home. I think Man City will have plenty of opportunities to get up the field for goal scoring chances. With the bunch of players they have and how well they have been gelling this year in comparison to last year. It's difficult to overlook them not getting at least a point in Munich despite their lack of CL experience and their poor performance against Napoli at home. I think that game could act as an eye opener to them and they underestimated their opponents. But they shouldn't underestimate Bayern tonight in the same way and their mindset should be different. Bayern are favored heavily so that puts the pressure of the Manchester team. 1-1 or a 1-2 away win could be on the cards. Think a draw is more likely.

Stake 28

El Horseboxo

Looking at the card for this week in the NCAA. I have some leans that i'll stick up now and keep an eye on. May take one of two soon as i expect lines to change.

Alabama (-3.5) at Florida
Georgia Tech (-12) @ NC State
Auburn (+9.5) at South Carolina
Texas (-9.5) at Iowa State
Clemson (+7) at Virginia Tech
Baylor (-3.5) at Kansas State
Nebraska at Wisconsin (-9)
Buffalo at Tennessee (-28)

In the NFL there's a few games that jump out.

Patriots (-4) at Oakland
Lions (+2) at Cowboys
Vikings (Win 1st half) at Chiefs
Colts (+10) at Buccs
Panthers (+6.5) at Bears



I reckon a lot of people are going to think this is a great spot for the Raiders to cover the spread or even win outright. And it is. It's a classic set up. Oakland beat the Jets and the Patriots lose in astonishing fashion and now have to travel across the country to the west coast. Brady turned the ball over quite a bit which resulted in the Bills scoring more and the Patriots scoring less as they wasted possession. That type of game from Brady is rare. Pity the same can't be said for the Patriots D who are just leaking points. The Jets were without Mangold which is a big loss. They also seemed to play like they had one eye on the Ravens game back east next week. Given the 2 situations i think there is a slight overreaction. This line should raise closer to 7 by game time i reckon.

El Horseboxo

Gonna add a small bet of

Welbeck to score first and United to win @ 5.00

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

Just went out to the shop and come back to see one bet in anyways and most likely part of the double.

EDIT
Jumped the gun there a bit. Don't think anyone seen that second half coming.

Eire-Dearg

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In the NFL there's a few games that jump out.

Patriots (-4) at Oakland
Lions (+2) at Cowboys
Vikings (Win 1st half) at Chiefs
Colts (+10) at Buccs
Panthers (+6.5) at Bears

Thoughts on the Lions money line @ evens? I think i'll have some of that by the end of the week.

El Horseboxo

I'm not too sure on Detroit now. I hadn't looked at their schedule when i posted yesterday. They are 3-0 and there's always going to be a bit of a monkey on their back leading up to and during the game to go 4-0. This is the first 3-0 start for the Lions since 1980. And they got that 3rd win against the Vikings too. They also went 4-0 that year so a possible good sign. Anyways they play Chicago on their own turf in week 5 in a NFC North divisional game. So they may look ahead to that and try have a healthy team. Going 3-1 wouldn't be something they'd be too worried about if they would be in a good position to beat the Bears at home the following week.

However i can't overlook the fact that Detroit have the 3rd best defense in the league allowing just 15.3 points a game. That bodes well against a banged up Dallas team. Bryant had little to no input the other night. Still think it's gonna be a few weeks before he's fully healthy. Romo took some more hits and could be seen wincing a lot. Despite their narrow win the Cowboys didn't impress at all. Too many messed up snaps, penalties and lack of understanding their own playbook on offense. Romo had to tell guys earning millions a year where to go on the field.

On any other week i'd favor the Lions to win straight up. But considering the have a game against a divisional rival the following week there's a chance they may look ahead to that. You see it happening so often from college level right up to the pros in nearly all American sports. The line is set at 46. I quite like that. If i could get the Lions +3.5 in play i'd really like that because i just can't see the Cowboys blowing the Lions out. It will be close if they win.