Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Zenit next goal before 80th minute

Stake 25

El Horseboxo

Zenit score in the 60th odd minute to win the above bet. Forgot to put the odds but they were 2.25.

Balance 1481.25


Small double of

Valencia vs Chelsea (DNB) @ 1.80
Arsenal vs Olympiakos @ 1.57

Total odds 2.82

Stake 21.25

El Horseboxo

Chelsea concede a late penalty to just make it a 21 odd bet on odds of 1.57. So minimal gain.

Balance 1493.36


Noticed the Georgia Tech line has fell 2.4 points. I liked them at -12 so gotta jump on them at -9.5.

Georgia Tech(-9.5) at NC State @ 1.90

Will edit reasoning in tomorrow.

Stake 66



Alabama (-3) at Florida @ 1.76

Will edit reasoning in tomorrow.

Stake 39



Baylor at Kansas State (Over 63.5) @ 1.90

Will edit reasoning in tomorrow.

Stake 33

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Anderlecht (Both to score) @ 2.10

Stake 20

SteelyDanJalapeno

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In play bet

Zenit next goal before 80th minute

Stake 25

I've taken a few of these recently odds do seem fairly generous compared to say over 0.5 in full time

El Horseboxo

Yeah can get good value on it for just 10 mins less than full time.

On another note fúck Lokomotiv Moscow. Pure utter shíte. Open goal after open goal and couldn't find the net. They did actually score a perfectly onside goal. Wasn't even close to being offside and was disallowed. Never a chance with a team that has 8 foul throw ins during the game.

SteelyDanJalapeno

8! haha, fancied Anderlecht myself.

El Horseboxo

I did kinda fancy Anderlecht myself. But with them being away i was thinking maybe a score draw. When they scored in the 9th minute i figured the bet was as good as in. Surely L Moscow could score at home with 80 minutes to go. But nope.

stingerro

Anything for today's match between USF and Pittsburgh? I read Archie's pick and he not only went for USF, but from his analyse I understood he predicts a rather overish match.

On the other side I read your opinion about under being interesting for you.

Any clarifications?

El Horseboxo

Going by the stats and abilities of both sides i would have to go with USF to cover the -2.5 points. If this game was in Florida i imagine the spread would be 7+ points either side. Just read what Archie wrote and it doesn't seem like he's thinking over 51.5 points. Much rather that USF will cover the spread regardless of how much time Pittsburgh will eat off the clock as USF have scored a lot of touchdowns in a 2 minute drill type of offense. They can be really quick at getting outta their own backfield down to the end zone. But with the weather, a road nationally televised game on a Thursday (strange games on Thursdays), a history of choking as a road favorite, a short week for both teams, i'm not sure if USF scores as much as they have been.

I'm just looking over some more stuff now and i'll most likely have a bet on this game. If not i'll post up what i'll be looking for in play.

El Horseboxo

Also in the other game on tonight i'm kinda leaning towards Utep getting a backdoor cover against Houston.

El Horseboxo

Think i might wait till in play on the USF at Pittsburg game. Not sure if i'm over analyzing it but i've a feeling Pittsburg cover tonight. Too many people on USF and the line just looks too easy to cover. I'll probably just watch how it goes for the 1st quarter. The weather is actually dry tonight too so my love for the unders has waned a bit too.

El Horseboxo

In play bet

USF at Pittsburg (Under 57.5) @ 1.90

Stake 50

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Houston at UTEP @ 1.80
USF at Pittsburgh @ 1.90

Total odds 3.43

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Gonna call that under bet at the half. The way these Florida bitches are tackling Pittsburgh will probably put up the 21 points to kill the bet by themselves.

El Horseboxo

Bad run last 3 bets or so.

Balance 1198.36 (205 in play)

Adding


Northwestern at Illinois (Over 52) @ 1.90

Stake 33


Mississippi State at Georgia (Over 52) @ 1.90
SMU at TCU (-13) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Stake 8



Auburn @ South Carolina (Over 59.5) @ 1.90
Clemson (+7.5) @ Virginia Tech @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Stake 8



Minnesota at Michigan (Over 54) @ 1.90
Toledo @ Temple (-8) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Stake 8


Air Force at Navy (Under 57) @ 1.50
Mississippi State at Georgia (-3) @ 1.43
UCLA (+25) at Stanford @ 1.58
Northwestern (+14) @ Illinois @ 1.41

Total odds 4.84

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

Double of (In play)

Notre Dame at Purdue (+18.5) @ 1.90
Texas at Iowa State (Under 52.5) @ 1.83

Total odds 3.42

Stake 25

El Horseboxo

Georgia Tech just about cover in a strange end to the game, the Baylor game goes over and does the Northwestern one. None of the doubles or the trebles come off. Some bad decisions for 2 bets. Didn't really fancy TCU or Temple but was stuck for time to research and took 2 bets from Archie's thread. Shoulda known it was a classic let down spot for Temple. Surprised at TCU though.


Nebraska at Wisconsin (-4.5) @ 1.95

Stake 33


Balance 1391.16 (97 in play)

El Horseboxo

The Alabama and Wisconsin bet came in. The double was a stupid bet. For some reason i thought it was near the end of the second quarter when i took the Purdue bet. Was only the first though.

Not a bad weekend so far. All of my single bets came in. Maybe i should just start taking the singles and use maybe my 2 strongest ones as small doubles.

Balance 1524.15

El Horseboxo

Small double of

Udinese vs Bologna (Di Natale to score anytime) @ 172
Marseille vs Brest (Loic Remy to score anytime) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.29

Stake 14.15

El Horseboxo

Lions at Cowboys (-2.5) @ 1.95 (Line down to -2. Added juice to make it -2.5 Rarely games finish with 2 points in it)


I'm gonna revert back to the post i made a page back for my reasoning. I just really like the spot Dallas are in.

I'm not too sure on Detroit now. I hadn't looked at their schedule when i posted yesterday. They are 3-0 and there's always going to be a bit of a monkey on their back leading up to and during the game to go 4-0. This is the first 3-0 start for the Lions since 1980. And they got that 3rd win against the Vikings too. They also went 4-0 that year so a possible good sign. Anyways they play Chicago on their own turf in week 5 in a NFC North divisional game. So they may look ahead to that and try have a healthy team. Going 3-1 wouldn't be something they'd be too worried about if they would be in a good position to beat the Bears at home the following week.

However i can't overlook the fact that Detroit have the 3rd best defense in the league allowing just 15.3 points a game. That bodes well against a banged up Dallas team. Bryant had little to no input the other night. Still think it's gonna be a few weeks before he's fully healthy. Romo took some more hits and could be seen wincing a lot. Despite their narrow win the Cowboys didn't impress at all. Too many messed up snaps, penalties and lack of understanding their own playbook on offense. Romo had to tell guys earning millions a year where to go on the field.

On any other week i'd favor the Lions to win straight up. But considering the have a game against a divisional rival the following week there's a chance they may look ahead to that. You see it happening so often from college level right up to the pros in nearly all American sports. The line is set at 46. I quite like that. If i could get the Lions +3.5 in play i'd really like that because i just can't see the Cowboys blowing the Lions out. It will be close if they win.

I still think the game will be close and maybe won by a field goal. The Lions were slow to start in both their 2 previous games and had to mount comebacks. But against a tough Dallas D if the Cowboys get ahead it should be more difficult. And with the Bears coming to Detroit next week i don't think they'll put in the fight to come back if they find themselves in that situation. The coaching staff should want to protect a healthy team and keep them that way for the divisional game.


Stake 73.50



Saints at Jaguars (Over 45) @ 1.90

I put this game around the 48-53 mark. I think the Jaguars put up close to 20 points in this and the Saints should be able to put up around the 30 mark. The line looks slightly lower than i expected. I think the line is a little skewered due to the low scoring game for Jacksonville last week against the Panthers in a torrential rain and the 2 low scoring games they had on the road. The Saints have been leaking points and we all know they can score. The Jaguars should be able to put up around 17 points in my books.


Stake 33

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Spurs vs Arsenal (Adebayor to score anytime) @ 2.50

Stake 20



Also leaning towards the Under 44 in the 49ers/Eagles game. Might wait till in play and see if the line jumps a bit on an opening drive.

El Horseboxo

Should of left that Adebayor bet alone. Felt too fantasy like for him to become only the second player to score for both sides in the North London derby. Remy doesn't score either so both soccer bets dead. Marsielle played shíte anyways. No service to him at all.

Also leaning Houston against the Steelers. Will wait for a line lower than -3 in play. Also think the Falcons are in a good spot to win on the road by at least a TD against the Seahawks. I'll get to that game later.

El Horseboxo

Fúck you very much Romo. You fúcking cúnt of the highest order. And the rest of your geebag team.

stingerro

I know it's been a tough evening (followed you with over in Saints - Jaguars match), but do you see yourself making more bets tonight?

El Horseboxo

I just took the following. You can still get it now at the half on bet365.

Patriots at Raiders (+9.5) @ evens

Stake 30

stingerro

Don't know if you plan anything for tonight. But how does it two bets look for you (not mine):

The bet of the day is 1st TD to be a rushing TD

Both QB's are weak and they have both thrown for only 2 TD's each in 3 games!

Tampa will try and run it through our defence and Collins can't pass so we will try and give it to Addai as much as possible too.

3/2 with Ladbrokes looks a big price!

The other bet is Colts to score under 15 points @ 5/6

I'm not backing this but I'm here to give tips to you guys. We are so poor at the moment. It's amazing how much Manning does to our team. Collins is just not capable and I would rather have our 3rd choice in who played the end of last weeks game (even if he fumbled ) The Bucs defence is also pretty decent and forces a few fumbles which isn't good as Collins likes a good fumble.

El Horseboxo

Well first i'd just like to point out that Collins isn't starting. It's Paynter with his first regular season start ever. His first start ever actually i think. He may surprise down the road but i don't think he has enough to cause much damage. He has a strong arm but his accuracy lacks. He would have got all the snaps in practice this week and he may hook up with Wayne more than Collins did as he'd be closer to knowing the style of play having been with the Colts since drafted. However i think there is a bit of an overreaction based on the performance against the Steelers last week. The Colts hung around more so due to Pittsburgh playing terrible lately. So the under 15 points could look good as i don't really know that team functions without Manning. I think if they get it together this year it may be just home games. I can't see them doing it against the Buccs on the road.

Blount is the running game in TB but he hasn't been great so far and they have about 90 average yards rushing a game. The Buccs also throw the ball on average 63% in all games this year. All their first TD's have also been pass TD's. So while it is possible just be aware that TB are a pass first team this year and with the Colts weak secondary they could opt to throw down in the red zone.

I'm gonna watch for in play and try get the Buccs about -9.5 or lower. I think they win by over 10 tonight.

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Well first i'd just like to point out that Collins isn't starting. It's Paynter with his first regular season start ever. His first start ever actually i think. He may surprise down the road but i don't think he has enough to cause much damage. He has a strong arm but his accuracy lacks. He would have got all the snaps in practice this week and he may hook up with Wayne more than Collins did as he'd be closer to knowing the style of play having been with the Colts since drafted. However i think there is a bit of an overreaction based on the performance against the Steelers last week. The Colts hung around more so due to Pittsburgh playing terrible lately. So the under 15 points could look good as i don't really know that team functions without Manning. I think if they get it together this year it may be just home games. I can't see them doing it against the Buccs on the road.

Blount is the running game in TB but he hasn't been great so far and they have about 90 average yards rushing a game. The Buccs also throw the ball on average 63% in all games this year. All their first TD's have also been pass TD's. So while it is possible just be aware that TB are a pass first team this year and with the Colts weak secondary they could opt to throw down in the red zone.

I'm gonna watch for in play and try get the Buccs about -9.5 or lower. I think they win by over 10 tonight.

Ok, thanks. So will try to look out for your bet during the match, as don't think I have guts to take under 15 points for Colts... also line is 13.5 I think right now.

El Horseboxo

Just took the Buccs -6.5 @ 1.90 on bet365. Should be still there if quick. Indy still driving. Might even get a better line.