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Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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    #782
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play bet

    Colts at Buccs (-6.5) @ 1.90

    Stake 100


    Colts at Buccs (-0.5 1st quarter) @ 2.50

    Stake 40


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    #783
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Just took the Buccs -6.5 @ 1.90 on bet365. Should be still there if quick. Indy still driving. Might even get a better line.
    It's -7.5 now. Good enough? Edit: Got -4.5 @1.90, hopefully it will prove good enough and Tampa Bay will pick up their game.


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    #784
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Seriously no luck at all in this nfl. Last play of the quarter is a 62 yard td and it gets called back for out of bounds.


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    #785
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Seriously no luck at all in this nfl. Last play of the quarter is a 62 yard td and it gets called back for out of bounds.
    And now we can add to this Tampa Bay QB being sacked 20 seconds before HT and their field goal not being allowed because of some players not leaving a pitch quickly enough. It has all ingrendients of losing bet...


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    #786
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Uffff, it was close. Thanks for advice about taking it In Play.

    Also, have a amateur question - what are the most critical lines to take (as you mentioned games rarely finish with 2 points difference)? I took -4.5, but probably it's not a big difference between -5.5 and even -6.5 (even if there was a game with 5 points difference this weekend). But -4 would be a huge difference, right? Hope you understand what I mean.


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    #787
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Yeah was a close one. Needed that win. Thought it was dead with the missed field goal off the post, the penalty on the td, the penalty on the made fg and then the amount of flags in the 4th quarter.

    Ok about the point spread the most important are the ones just .5 of a point below a whole score. Be it the 3 points for a field goal or the 6 for a td. 7 if you include the PAT which is close to 100% in terms of success. Blocked or missed ones rarely happen. The more common scenario is probably going for the 2 points and missing. And even that isn't that common an occurrence.

    Anyways that makes -2.5 and minus -6.5 key numbers. As close games are usually lost by 3 points or 7 points as seen last night. -3 and -7 are also good as you have the cover of a push. You could consider -5.5 to an extent if you were concerned about a missed PAT. Of course the + figures are the same as above if going the other way.

    Another thing to consider is buying up or down. Like the other day wit the Cowboys. The spread was -1 before kick off. I took the alternative spread of -2.5 at better odds because the chances of a 2 point win are slim. The game ended with 3 points between the two. So you might as well take better odds. It's the same wit -7.5 through to -9. You pretty much might as well take -9.5 as if your bet is to win it's most likely gonna be 10 points that covers it. Of course there are scenarios that can mean an 8 or 9 point win but they are less common.

    Going the other way for lesser odds is also an option. If the spread is -7.5 it might be worth taking -7 or -6.5 in case they only win by a td.


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    #788
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Great, big thanks. Hopefully one day I will remember it and it will help me making bets In Play. :cool:

    Have to admit that I really enjoy watching american football, never had a time to do it, but now with tailing you and Archie trying to find some free time for it. Still, last time I was watching games regularly was around 5-6 years ago with a few US american basketball players who were playing professionally in Warsaw in Polish League. We had obligatory NFL sunday evenings (and they had plenty of complicated bets between themselves) and it was usually a great time. They also teached me well about some stuff... too bad I forgot almost everything.

    Edit: Sorry if I'm too active in your log, even if you have some patience left from what I see ;)


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    #789
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Nah it's cool ask as many questions or post in here as much as ya like. I love the sport and having a bet so if i can help ya out or vice versa when it comes to either don't hesitate. So fire away.

    The coin flip at the beginning of games can really help you out which is why i like In play bets American football. It may not always go your way but the difference of waiting 5 minutes can get you a better spread. Like the Buccs started at -10.5 last night and because Indy received the ball it dropped to -6.5 as they drove up the field. A key number i was looking for. I was actually looking for -9.5 but glad the Colts pushed up the field on their opening drive.

    If ya have an xbox or ps3 getting NFL 12 might be fun for ya and be a refresher course as it can really help you understand plays and common scenrios in the game. Definitely helped me when i was a kid.


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    #790
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »

    If ya have an xbox or ps3 getting NFL 12 might be fun for ya and be a refresher course as it can really help you understand plays and common scenrios in the game. Definitely helped me when i was a kid.
    Yeah, it would be definitely helpful. For some reason I never play any Madden, despite playing a lot of video games (having friend in the business with access to all games helped, had fun playing some beta versions). But right now this train is definitely a history, decided to choose Football Manager over video games... and I don't even have time to play FM anymore.


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    #791
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Getting in early on these college lines.


    Oklahoma at Texas (+10) @ 1.90

    Stake 100


    Wyoming (+10) at Utah State

    Stake 40


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    #792
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Anything for tonight? Looking at bets done by other punters I saw bets for over 32.5 HT at Oregon-California and West Kentucky +11.5 FT against Middle Tennessee State.


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    #793
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Haven't really paid much attention to the games tonight. Been a bit busy with work.

    But after having a quick look i think i'll wait till in play. If i can get a line around the 60 point mark i'll most likely go over. Think it should be a shoot out. I expect Cal to put up close to 30. Maybe 28 points. So i'd fancy their team totals to be over the 21.5 mark too. I also think they will stay within the 24 points. That first half bet looks good too. I can't see the Oregon totals but i expect them to have very few 3 and outs tonight. They should score on most possessions.

    As for the other game i think it may go under the 53.5. But i'd prefer something around 55.5. W Kentucky have a good shot at staying within 10 points of Mid Ten. So i'll look for something a little higher than the current +10.5.


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    #794
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Actually gonna do a quick double.


    WK(+14.5) at MTS @ 1.47
    California (+31) at Oregon @ 1.35

    Total odds evens


    Stake 50


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    #795
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    I was seconds away from taking Western Kentucky +21.5 (for around 2/5) after Middle Tennessee State scored with a opening touchdown... but I hesitated with California game for the double and it was gone. In the end I took Middle Tennessee State to win (when it was 7-7) and California - Oregon over 58.5. Evens for that... hopefully.


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    #796
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Finland vs Sweden (-1 AH) @ 2.15

    Stake 20


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    #797
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Boise (-20.5) @ Toledo @1.90

    Stake 110


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    #798
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Balance 1324.41 (250 in play)

    Sweden bet lost as they conceded a goal against the run of play. Sweden checked out of the game after an hour anyways. Haven't seen a team get that uninterested in a game in a long time. And they needed the win.


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    #799
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Boise St At Fresno (Under 61.5) @ 1.95

    This Boise D is too stingy and Fresno will be lucky to put up 10 points. If they even get into the end zone i imagine it will be late in the game due to a rotation of starters on Boise's end. Boise will miss some points after and will miss field goals if they decide to go for them. They don't have a kicker. So far in the first quarter they have needed the 3 downs to get the 1st. Which has ate into the clock. So i can see this game ending maybe 40 - 13 or something like that.

    Stake 30


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    #800
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Boise St (-7 2nd Q) at Fresno @ 2.60

    Stake 15

    Bet didn't go through. Odds increased.


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    #801
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    That boise team are some bunch of ****. 17 seconds left and winning 50-7 with it on 4th down on the 25 yard line and they go for a td. Coulda ran the clock down to 4 seconds and turned it over on downs for one final play. Instead they had to line up for the point after, the kick return and 2 fresno plays. Bastards ruined my under bet.


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    #802
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Not sure why i have Boise at Toledo up above as they already played them and won convincingly against Fresno last night to bring in my main bet. The 2nd quarter in play bet also won and the under bet was 17 seconds and a kneel away from winning. Thought it was pretty classless to go past first down and score a touchdown against a team that you've just destroyed in every aspect of the game. If it had of been still Moore and the first team out on the field i reckon they would have downed the ball. Anyways profitable night.


    Balance 1528.41 (140 in play)


    Gonna head for a work out and i'll be adding some college ball plays.


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    #803
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Adding

    Louisville at UNC (-13.5) @ 1.90

    Stake 33


    Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Rutgers @ 1.90

    Stake 33


    And a double on the above

    Louisville at UNC (-13.5) @ 1.90
    Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Rutgers @ 1.90

    Total odds 3.64

    Stake 8


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    #804
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Hmm think i'll be looking at OU for the second half. Imagine it will be somewhere around -4.5 or -5. Still not up on bet365. Time to try buy out of that bet and hope for the best.


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    #805
    Eire-Dearg
    Registered Users Posts: 8,900 ✭✭✭Eire-Dearg


    Would you be warm on a treble of Baylor, Oklahoma St and Pittsburgh all to beat their spreads?


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    #806
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I like Baylor and i may add them. And i've already took Pittsburgh.

    As for the Oklahoma St game here are my thoughts on it from a post i made in Archie's thread.

    The only thing really holding me back about Okie State is the game against Texas next week. It's a Big 12 divisional game and If OSU find themselves up going into the third i think they will rotate their starters. Especially considering Texas are playing against one of their biggest rivals today in Oklahoma University which will take a lot out of them. OSU will know if they are fresh and healthy they will go into the game in a good position. I could be well wrong and OSU could blow Kansas out. But Kansas can score and i just fear the backdoor cover for such a high spread of 31.5. They very could well be winning by 3 TD's at the half. So that -17 for the half could be a good bet.


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    #807
    Eire-Dearg
    Registered Users Posts: 8,900 ✭✭✭Eire-Dearg


    Very valid points. I wouldn't be hugely confident on betting on such a big spread to be honest.

    Anything else you'd be more confident on in putting in a treble?


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    #808
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Adding

    Auburn (+10.5) at Arkansas @ 1.83

    Stake 24


    Iowa State at Baylor (-15.5) @ 1.90

    Stake 22


    Air Force at Notre Dame (-13.5) @ 1.83

    Stake 24


    Ohio State at Nebraska (-9.5) @ 1.76

    Stake 26


    Texas A&M (-9.5) at Texas Tech @ 1.90

    Stake 22


    Doubles of


    Boston College at Clemson (-20.5) @ 1.83
    Auburn at Arkansas (Over 63.5) @ 1.90

    Total odds 3.49

    Stake 8


    Iowa State at Baylor (-15.5) @ 1.90
    Auburn (+10.5) at Arkansas @ 1.83

    Total odds 3.49

    Stake 8


    Treble of


    Texas A&M (-9.5) at Texas Tech @ 1.90
    Air Force at Notre Dame (-13.5) @ 1.83
    Ohio State at Nebraska (-9.5) @ 1.76

    Total odds 6.19

    Stake 5


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    #809
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Eire the above bets will probably be me for the night. I kinda like them all but some are a bit risky. I didn't really like a lot of the games too much today. So there isn't really one that stands out too much. I suppose i'd lean more towards the Nebraska and Texas A&M bets.


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    #810
    Eire-Dearg
    Registered Users Posts: 8,900 ✭✭✭Eire-Dearg


    Nice one mate.

    Went with Oklahoma State in the end (thankfully!) but Pittsburgh seem very slow out of the traps, 3-6 down at HT.


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    #811
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Getting in early on these college lines.

    Oklahoma at Texas (+10) @ 1.90

    Stake 100
    El_Horseboxo - why did you go for Texas +10? I asked about it yesterday, but didn't get any answer, and now looking at result I am even more curious.


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