Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo · 08-10-2011 11:12pm

stingerro wrote: »

El_Horseboxo - why did you go for Texas +10? I asked about it yesterday, but didn't get any answer, and now looking at result I am even more curious.

Didn't see your question. Anyways took Texas because i thought the spread should have been about -7. Last year the spread was -3 and it took it very late in the game for OU to cover. Texas are better this year so i couldn't understand why the spread was an extra 7 points. Florida State had kept within 10 points of OU as did Missouri. I rank Texas better than those 2 teams. So on neutral ground in a rivalry that Texas has owned throughout history i thought they could have pushed it closer than 10 points. Oklahoma were expected to win but i doubt many people expected the result that happened. The spread was beat by turnovers. I think 35 points came from turnovers. You just can't account for that many points from fumbles and interceptions.

CriticEyes · 09-10-2011 2:52pm

You doing any NFL bets today? Any tips?

El Horseboxo · 09-10-2011 4:04pm

Haven't really looked at anything yet. So just some leans. I've been brutal in the NFL so far anyways. I think most weeks you'd be best throwing a dart at a board to try pick your winners. I'll be looking through the card in a bit and i'll post up anything i take.

El Horseboxo · 09-10-2011 5:25pm

Haven't really paid much attention at anything. So don't take these bets as anything based on much confidence. Just my initial feelings at first glance.

Bengals (-2.5) at Jaguars @ 1.90
Chiefs At Colts (-2.5) @ evens

Total odds 3.81

Stake 10

Seahawks at Giants (-9.5) @ 1.86
Cardinals at Vikings (-2.5) @ 1.80

Total odds 3.36

Stake 10

Packers (-6.5) at Falcon @ 1.95
Bears at Lions (-5) @ 1.86

Total odds 3.65

Stake 10

Chiefs at Colts (Over 3.5 field goals made) @ 2.35
Patriots (-6.5) at Jets @ 1.76

Total odds 4.15

Stake 10

El Horseboxo · 10-10-2011 1:48am

Crap last 2 days. Too many scattered bets without much research. A bit unlucky too with how the games went. I'll figure out the balance later as i have it scattered around a few sites now to try get best odds.

In play bet

Packers (-3.5) at Falcons @ evens

Stake 150

El Horseboxo · 10-10-2011 1:52am

A small double that i notice didn't go through on my phone.

Packers (-6) at Falcons @ 1.90
Packers at Falcons (Over 54) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Stake 10

El Horseboxo · 10-10-2011 4:44pm

Thanks to the big win last night with a bet that i thought was dead and buried i still managed to remain in 500 profit since i restarted the log. The college and nfl haven't been too kind to me this weekend so thought i was a disaster.

Balance 1501.13 (10 in play)

El Horseboxo · 10-10-2011 5:28pm

In play bet.

Finland U21 vs Sweden U21 @ evens

Taking the better team to eventually break through a very defensive Finnish team. Keeping the stake small enough. Was waiting for it to hit evens.

Stake 15

El Horseboxo · 10-10-2011 7:24pm

Sweden win 0-1.

In play bet

San Marino vs Germany (-6,-6.5) @ evens

Stake 15

Balance 1501.13 (25 in play)

El Horseboxo · 10-10-2011 8:27pm

Opted out of that above bet when i seen it was an in play asian handicap bet. So it would require a 9-0 win. I can't see San Marino scoring so i took

Under 8.5 goals @ 2.20

Stake 15

El Horseboxo · 11-10-2011 12:38am

Well that worked out well. I lost the -6.5 part of the bet but the -6 was a push as the game ended 0-8. So half the stake back on that. And then the under 8.5 won. Was only trying to buy out of the bet as i didn't like a 0-9 win.

Balance 1526.63 (10 in play)

Quite fancy the over 47 in the Bears at Detroit game. Gonna decide whether to take it soon or try get a slightly better line in play.

El Horseboxo · 11-10-2011 1:36am

Bears at Lions (Over 47) @ 1.90

Detroit pass on 62% of their plays on average this season. Means the clock stops a lot allowing more time for scores. Chicago run the ball even less. They pass on average 64%. 2 pass heavy teams, both teams are in the top 5 for scoring defense and Chicago are in the top 3 for special team scoring. Also MNF game have a habit of going over. Don't think we'll see a big claw back in this game for Detroit. I think they put up points in the first half at home. Cutler will be got to and the Bears will fumble. I like the Lions to win but i'm not mad about the current spread. Will watch in play.

Stake 46.63

stingerro · 11-10-2011 1:58am

It's already over 41.5 available in play - you think they will wake up offensively and it's worth taking?

El Horseboxo · 11-10-2011 2:58am

I think it will wake up in the second half. The game seems to be a bit more open now even. I was hoping for the line to shoot back up to 47 so i could cancel the above bet and reevaluate. I haven't seen a worse quarter of NFL in a long long time. More penalties than successful plays is a joke. And Bears not taking a field goal in a game that's going to be close. Should be 13 points on the board.

The thing that really worries me about the over is the Bears. Cutler just isn't getting any time to pass and are running the ball more which is winding down the clock.

El Horseboxo · 11-10-2011 1:29pm

Slight loss from yesterday. Thought that game had overs written all over it. No points in the first quarter killed it. Especially the 8 minute 33 second drive from the bears that had 4 false starts and 2 other penalties and resulted in them going for it on 4th and 1 in field goal range and gaining nothing. This continued throughout the game. Long drives with nothing to show for it. What pissed me off was when Best scored the running TD the line went up to 46.5 and i was taking the under @ 1.86 for 50 euro but while it was confirming the bet bet365 suspended the markets and then the line dropped when it went to third down. Them bastards are too on the ball compared to Paddy Power.

Balance 1516.50

El Horseboxo · 11-10-2011 5:12pm

In play

Kazakhstan vs Austria (Over 2.5 goals) @ evens

Stake 20

El Horseboxo · 13-10-2011 4:20pm

TPS (-1 AH) vs MyPa @ 1.95

Stake 20

El Horseboxo · 22-10-2011 12:54am

Been in Vegas the past week so done any gambling I done there in sportsbook. Skipped the nfl and had a good Saturday without my crap luck in the pros eating into profit. Won't be including any winnings here.

Just a small one for tonight.

Rutgers (+1) at Louisville @ 1.90

Stake 25

Peyton Manning · 22-10-2011 2:00am

Welcome back man!

El Horseboxo · 22-10-2011 1:01pm

Thanks. Not a good first bet to come back to. Rotten luck in the game. Easy TD catch in his hands and drops it, 2 missed chip shot FG's that i would've made and 3 interceptions. The Rutgers players looked a bit shook after breaking dudes neck.

Will add college plays that i took last night in a while.

Balance 1451.50

El Horseboxo · 22-10-2011 3:29pm

Wisconsin (-7) at Michigan State @ 1.90

Really love this bet and have a strong feeling the Badgers will overcome the tough Spartans defense and win by 14+ points. The line has gone up as far as -9 but came back down to -7. I think it's mainly because people were jumping on Michigan St plus the points once it was more than a TD. They are the number 1 ranked D in terms of total yards allowed and people are expecting a closer game than 7 points either side. But Wisconsin aren't too far behind them in 9th spot. And with their running and this years aerial attack averaging about 250 yards a game on each avenue they are one of the most complete offenses in college football. Notre Dame put up big numbers against Mich St and they haven't played as potent an offense since. Today they will face a better one. I'll ignore historical trends here and go with the road team. The Badgers are a better team this season.

Stake 110

El Horseboxo · 22-10-2011 4:07pm

Marshall at Houston (-23.5) @ 1.90

The nations highest yardage offense with Case Keenum throwing the ball against a team that has lost against Ohio and UCF on the road. Ohio which are a terrible team outscored them by 37 points. This is a 99th ranked team that lost to a horrible Buffalo team. Houston are very much a home team when it comes to covering the spread. I don't trust them on the road because they just get the job done. But at home it's a different story and they are a difficult team to stop scoring and score against. Especially if you are way down the rankings like Marshall. It's a long trip from WV and i can't see them stopping Houston on many possessions. I like that the figure fell by a point to -23.5 allowing for a possible 3 TD and FG cover.

Stake 33

El Horseboxo · 22-10-2011 4:32pm

Cincinnati at USF (-3) @ 1.95

This is a good spot for USF to get back into the Big East championship race with West Virginia losing last night. They are also a very different team at home so despite the last 2 losses which came on the road i think they come out to play tonight and keep themselves in with a chance in the BE. I think Cincy are a pretty overrated team. I have liked them in previous weeks while in decent spots but i don't like them at all today against the Bulls. A loss today wouldn't be the worst for Cincy as USF already has 2 losses. Just like the spot for the Bulls to bounce back to winning ways. It will probably be close bu think the -3 is a little too low. Could be a TD in it.

Stake 21

El Horseboxo · 22-10-2011 5:12pm

In play double

Oklahoma State (-6.5) at Missouri @ 1.90
North Carolina at Clemson (-9.5) @ 1.86

Stake 20

El Horseboxo · 23-10-2011 12:41am

Adding

Washington at Stanford (-18.5) @1.90

This line has been falling all day. I can only imagine it's due to some sharp money coming in on Washington. It's probably bottomed out now so i jumped on it. Think defense will be key here and Stanford should limit Washington's scores here. While Luck does what Luck does best and turns the cogs in the covering machine that the Cardinals are. I feel that eventually Stanford has to lose an ATS game. But i don't think it happens here when they need to cover 3 TD's to win. Especially on their own turf.

Stake 33

Tennessee at Alabama (-29.5) @ 1.90
Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-29) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Without going into too much reasoning i'm just pretty much hoping both these top football programs bring their A game tonight and blow their opponents out. Both are capable with good strong defenses and powerful offenses. Their opponents should struggle to put up points and both should cover the high spread if all goes to plan and they don't allow any backdoor covers.

Stake 15

SMU at Southern Mississippi (Over 60) @ 1.90
Wisconsin @ Michigan State (Wisconsin over 28.5 points) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Stake 10

Balance 1280.70 (201 in play)

CriticEyes · 23-10-2011 12:42am

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Wisconsin (-7) at Michigan State @ 1.90

Really love this bet and have a strong feeling the Badgers will overcome the tough Spartans defense and win by 14+ points. The line has gone up as far as -9 but came back down to -7. I think it's mainly because people were jumping on Michigan St plus the points once it was more than a TD. They are the number 1 ranked D in terms of total yards allowed and people are expecting a closer game than 7 points either side. But Wisconsin aren't too far behind them in 9th spot. And with their running and this years aerial attack averaging about 250 yards a game on each avenue they are one of the most complete offenses in college football. Notre Dame put up big numbers against Mich St and they haven't played as potent an offense since. Today they will face a better one. I'll ignore historical trends here and go with the road team. The Badgers are a better team this season.

Stake 110

Hey man i just want to say thanks 1st of all for all your tips. Some serious shouts. Cheers. As for this game i have put alot more on this than my usual bets to try cover my weekend in some way. So my question is how confident are you of this line and if the line in play goes to a certain amount what would be a good lay to maybe even win both ways but to at least cover myself. Cheers mate.

P.S thanks for the Houstan bet had a small amount on that that will follow over to the Wisconsin. Cheers mate for any advice.

El Horseboxo · 23-10-2011 1:36am

Just seeing this now. Laying 7-9 points on Wisconsin would be as far as my confidence would go. I think they win by double digits but i'd exercise caution and play on the single digit side of 10 points. Especially given my stake. If i was putting a smaller stake on it i'd play up as far as -13.5 maybe.

If the line goes back down to -7 or -9.5 i'd take it if i hadn't already. The Badgers should have too much on offense for Michigan to stop. The Wisconsin D is also very strong and often overlooked and stays in the shadows of their offense. I actually think Michigan struggle to get into the end zone in this one.

CriticEyes · 23-10-2011 2:36am

WTF happened to them. 14-0 up and looking good and then they go in 23-14 down and HT. Line +3.5 from -18.5 at one stage. Well im ****ed!

El Horseboxo · 23-10-2011 11:39am

Talk about a game of 2 quarters. Wisconsin dominated the 1st and thenplayed looking sacred in the 2nd. I expected them to play the game in the manner of how hey started. some very surprising results this weekend. Oklahoma losing to Texas Tech too. Bama needing the 4th quarter to cover the spread and Boise letting Air Force stay in the game. WTF.

El Horseboxo · 23-10-2011 12:04pm

Not a good day yesterday. Some surprising results and still doing some doubles i haven't really thought out such as the SMU overs game.

Should stay away from the NFL today but there are one or two bets that i like. So probably just them.

Balance 1406.70

Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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