Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

Was gonna do 50 on Man Utd to win but i'll stick a tenner of it on them to win by 2 goals. Much of the same Everton team had a hard 120 minutes the other night. They are also missing Cahill, Neville and Drenthe who has made an impact as of late. They haven't been playing well compared to other seasons when they took points off United. I don't see a big 5 goal romp from United in some form of backlash. But i do see them winning maybe 0-2 or 3-1.


Everton vs Man Utd @ evens

Stake 40

Everton vs Man Utd (-1) @ 3.60

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

Win the United Single in a shocking performance by them.

Balance 1436.70

Just one for the early NCAAF games so far.


Michigan State at Nebraska (Over 50.5) @ 1.90
Arkansas (-9) at Vanderbilt @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Wake Forest at North Carolina (-7) 1.95
Georgia (-2.5) vs Florida @ 1.86

Total odds 3.65

Stake 20


Clemson (-3.5) at Georgia Tech @ 1.95
Washington State at Oregon (-34.5) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.72

Stake 20


Oklahoma (-13) at Kansas State @ 1.90
Baylor at Oklahoma State (-13.5) @ 1.83

Total odds 3.49

Stake 20


Wisconsin (-7) at Ohio State @ 1.86
Air Force (-30) at New Mexico @ 1.90

Total odds 3.56

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

2 doubles win on Saturday. Slight profit.

Balance 1479.50

El Horseboxo

Villarreal vs Man City (Man City to score 2 goals) @ 1.80
Lyon vs Real Madrid (Real Madrid to score 2 goals) @ 1.66

Total odds 3.00

Stake 29.50

El Horseboxo

Man Utd vs Otelul Galati (Hernandez to score anytime) @ evens

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

The CL double won while United once again put in a shíte performance. That's a few times i've bet on them and they've yet to get out of this funk. I'm sure it will happen once i don't have any money on them.

Balance 1518.50


In play bet

Esbjerg (-0.75) vs Fredericia @ evens


Stake 18.50

El Horseboxo

Esjberg win 4-1. Shoulda took the over 1.5 for them at 2.50 also. Anyways.

Balance 1537

Based on a tiny rumor which i'm not sure of it's credibility. I'll stake a euro on each of the following bets.

Galway vs Monaghan (0-0 HT/1-0 FT) @ 26
Galway vs Monaghan (1-0 FT) @ 21

stingerro

Just curious - what was the reasoning behind Esbjerg bet? Did you take that In Play when watching?

El Horseboxo

Just form really. They were unbeaten in the past 10 games. Drew 2 and won 8. They'd also won 5 of their last 6 at home. Fredericia hadn't won their last 4 games away from home. They also got relegated last year but kept most of their players.

Gonna start going through soccerway and betexplorer looking for teams in decent form at home with odds of around evens. Worked well for me last year in this thread.

El Horseboxo

Really torn about who covers in this USC at Colorado game. A lot of people earlier in the week were on USC for reasons that they would bounce back. But that shifted a lot over the last 2 days to Colorado covering because they get 2 players back and USC is missing players on D and is also off an emotional loss. Despite over 70% on USC the line went the other way. Speculation is that 3 well known cappers staked 6 figure sums on Colorado +21. Think this is one to see how it plays. I was kinda leaning Colorado based on the home advantage with the altitude and cold weather that southern Cali folk ain't used to. Also that they may be looking ahead to the Washington game on their own turf towards the end of the game if they found themselves up.

Colorado look up for it on the opening drive anyways.

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Really torn about who covers in this USC at Colorado game. A lot of people earlier in the week were on USC for reasons that they would bounce back. But that shifted a lot over the last 2 days to Colorado covering because they get 2 players back and USC is missing players on D and is also off an emotional loss. Despite over 70% on USC the line went the other way. Speculation is that 3 well known cappers staked 6 figure sums on Colorado +21. Think this is one to see how it plays. I was kinda leaning Colorado based on the home advantage with the altitude and cold weather that southern Cali folk ain't used to. Also that they may be looking ahead to the Washington game on their own turf towards the end of the game if they found themselves up.

Colorado look up for it on the opening drive anyways.

Couldn't you post it a minute earlier , just placed a bet backing USC at -20.5...:mad:. And now they allowed Colorado to make a quick TD, great.

El Horseboxo

In play

USC (-12.5) at Colorado @ 1.90

This looks like a game where Colorado start strong and then run out of gas in the second where USC covers. I know the game isn't on that long currently but just reminds me of that type of scenario. Kinda like the Oregon-California game a few weeks back. Still don't like the -21 spread. But to win by 2 td's looks appealing.

Stake 37

El Horseboxo

stingerro wrote: »

Couldn't you post it a minute earlier , just placed a bet backing USC at -20.5...:mad:. And now they allowed Colorado to make a quick TD, great.

You know what. I had something similar typed up and ready to post at about 12:40. But the power went off. Trip switch clicked. By the time i booted up and wrote it again it was just about kick off. Anyways i like how USC handle their first drive. I don't think the weather and last weeks loss will be too much of a concern in this game. The Colorado D is leaky as hell and USC can score on most drives if they play with intensity.

El Horseboxo

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In play

USC (-12.5) at Colorado @ 1.90

This looks like a game where Colorado start strong and then run out of gas in the second where USC covers. I know the game isn't on that long currently but just reminds me of that type of scenario. Kinda like the Oregon-California game a few weeks back. Still don't like the -21 spread. But to win by 2 td's looks appealing.

Stake 37

Where did you get such good odds?

El Horseboxo

The_Dazzler wrote: »

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In play

USC (-12.5) at Colorado @ 1.90

This looks like a game where Colorado start strong and then run out of gas in the second where USC covers. I know the game isn't on that long currently but just reminds me of that type of scenario. Kinda like the Oregon-California game a few weeks back. Still don't like the -21 spread. But to win by 2 td's looks appealing.

Stake 37

Where did you get such good odds?

Such good odds or do you mean such good spread? Was on bet365. Colorado had scored a td. Kick returned the ball inside the 10 and woods returned for 8 I think. Line was at -12.5 then. Barkly passed in complete to butler and the line kept jumping from 13.5 to 12.5 with odds of 1.86 and 1.90. When it was 3rd and 2 the line was -12.5 at 1.90. I was happy once it was under the 2 td mark.

stingerro

El Horseboxo - what is general rule regarding 4th plays? When and were can be expected to see this being played through QB and when punt will be made? It's one of things which always confuse me.

El Horseboxo

stingerro wrote: »

El Horseboxo - what is general rule regarding 4th plays? When and were can be expected to see this being played through QB and when punt will be made? It's one of things which always confuse me.

There's no real set rule and is really just situational and coach dependent.

There's a few situations where it might occur.

1. Team is trailing by a td and it is late in the game. Going for a field goal would be pointless as you just hand back possession for the other team to run the clock and you are still 4 points down. So you try get the 1st down on 4th or go for td. Depends on field position. Same can be applied if 2 td's are in it. You go for the 7 points and then hope to recover an onside kick.

2. It's any stage of the game and your opponent is better than you and will score td's quite easily. So when approaching the red zone you go for 1st or a td rather than punt or kick a field goal. You will most likely lose the game if you just score field goals as your opponent will get into the end zone.

3. You have a poor kicker or special teams. A good example was Boise earlier this year. If they were on the opponents 30 and it was 4th and 5. They'd go for it. They could go for a field goal but with a poor kicker they may miss and hand over decent field position. Or they could punt. But having drove from your own half and got so close to their end zone. You think it's worth rewarding the drive with an attempt on 4th. This is more so true of teams that feel confident in their defense stopping their opponent despite good field position.

It's all basically cost vs risk analysis. Each position on the field is worth a certain amount of possible points. And how many yards to go for 1st carries a certain percentage of success. So you weigh up them both and assess how long is left in the game, your possible points, opponents possible points and current score.

Regardless of all the above it will be the coaches decision.

Search Google for 4th down territory situations for more scenarios and more technical and statistical analysis.

El Horseboxo

USC wins quite comfortably in the end but i feel only for the 2 blocked field goals the game could have been a lot closer.

Balance 1531.64

Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-13.5) @ 1.90
Texas A&M at Oklahoma (-20.5) @ 1.90

This double came in for me last week and i'll stick with it again. The 2 Okie teams at home should have no problem covering each of the above spreads. The Sooners are in a great revenge spot. And at home. I like Texas A&M but they aren't consistent throughout a game and make some very stupid mistakes. I can see a few turn overs and penalties aiding the Sooners to cover the 3 TD spread.

The Cowboys have a lethal offense that is hard to stop scoring. I just can't see Kansas stopping them Or putting too much up against an underrated Cowboys D. Granted they haven't been truly tested yet. But i doubt it will be today.

Total odds 3.64


Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Oregon (-15.5) at Washington @ 1.76
Houston (-27.5) @ UAB @ 1.90

Oregon should roll in this. They have been lately and Washington have been struggling to stop teams scoring. I expect Washington to score but it shouldn't be enough to stay within the spread.

I don't really like Houston and high spreads on the road. But they have been firing on all cylinders after a slow road start ATS. Way worse teams have blown out UAB. Their pass rush is terrible and Keenum should be able to instrument running up the score. Houston should get into the 50's here and UAB will be lucky to cross the 2 TD barrier.

Total odds 3.37

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

LSU at Alabama (-4.5) @ 1.90
South Carolina at Arkansas (-5) @ 1.90

Saban, revenge spot and home field advantage. That's the main difference i see between these 2 teams today. I'd edge the Alabama D and Richardson as the RB. This should be a very defensive low scoring game most likely decided by a score. Anything other than that and i'd be surprised.

SC shouldn't be able to keep up with Arkansas today. Not with the mounting list of injuries they have. However they have surprised me with their 7-1 ATS record despite that info. But they should struggle to stop the Arkansas offense. In games like this i'll always side with the home team with the better QB. Wilson really stepped into Mallett's shoes quite well. It might take a few attempts to get into the end zone by breaking down the SC defense. But it should happen.

Total odds 3.64

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Partly in play bet

Michigan (+3.5) at Iowa @ 1.90
Virginia (-3) at Maryland @ 1.90

Total odds 3.64

Stake 15

El Horseboxo

Slight loss yesterday with just one winning double. Alabama miss 4 field goals and Michigan fumble on the 3 yard line and can't score a td with 4 attempts at the end. Actually they score but it was ruled out of bounds but looked a td. A few games interest in the NFL today but as usual i'm skeptical given my form. Thank God for the NCAAB starting on Monday. It's been one of my strongest sports so should have a few bets on that each week over the season.

Balance 1524.04

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Thank God for the NCAAB starting on Monday. It's been one of my strongest sports so should have a few bets on that each week over the season.

Balance 1524.04

Sounds promising

El Horseboxo

stingerro wrote: »

Sounds promising

It's a sport i'll be keeping more on top of when it comes to betting. I know how to properly cap games in that sport and provides good opportunities for some bets where i think the lines are off. It's a sport you gotta act quick in though as the lines change rapidly. I'll could write for days bout angles on basketball so there'll be detailed reasoning as to why i'm taking it. Hopefully it's a profitable season. Pity the NBA doesn't look like being resolved soon.

El Horseboxo

Falcons (-6.5) at Colts @ 1.86
Jets at Bills (Over 45) @ 1.90

Total odds 3.56

Stake 15

El Horseboxo

Buccs at Saints (Saints over 30.5) @ 1.80
Dolphins at Chiefs (Chiefs over 21.5) @ 1.80

Total odds 3.24

Stake 15

El Horseboxo

Packers (-1.5) at Chargers @ 1.90

Stake 66

El Horseboxo

In playbet

Ravens (+3.5) at Steelers @ 1.90

Stake 33

El Horseboxo

The 2 doubles lose. No surprise there. Was trying to be too smart thinking the Jets/Bills would go over. Anyways the 2 chase-esque type bets turn the day around.

Balance 1584.04

College hoops start tonight. Not sure if i'll have a play on them because a lot of info about practice sessions and injuries is obscure at the moment and there isn't much preseason form to get a good read.

Slight leans currently would be Valpo to cover the +13.5 spread and for the W&M at STJ game to go over 137. Reasoning for that is W&M lost 2 defensive players between seasons. And they didn't have a strong defense last year. They replaced them with 2 new guys that are shooters. They will go for the outside shot whereas the 2 guys last year never shot. They looked to pass off and get it into the paint. So when they rotate you weaken the defense but the knock down effect is upsetting the rhythm of offense. I definitely think W&M will be going for a lot of 3 balls tonight. Whether they can get into their usual high ranking percentage in the first game is another question. STJ should run the ball at a high tempo. No building it up down the court. Their style makes for overs.

Last year the NBA and college ball started with a lot of overs. The reason being that regulars are amped up for the new season and run and play fast. Then you factor in rookies breaking in. You want them to have the experience first before you start telling them to slow down and play tactically. As seasons progress and teams and players gel and gain experience. The points regress a bit. The overs is a lean. Could be an in play bet to get a read of the game.