Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

Dreams.Ahead

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Horrible day. No luck at all.

Unlucky mate! Inverness CT let me down too, but I did win something small on Torquay.

Keep up the good work, your results are amazing.

El Horseboxo

In play bet.

De Graafschap vs Ajax

Over 3.5 goals @ 2.10

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

Ajax win 0-5.

Balance 1499.67
Profit 949.67

El Horseboxo

Kevin Kyle to score first with insure bet @ 5.00.

Stake 10

Kevin Kyle to score anytime @ 2.87

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Got a bet in for M'Gladbach to score 4 goals or more at 2.50 just as they took the free kick. It went through but wonder will i bet paid out on it. Put 40 on it.

I'll put a screenshot in here for it if it does.

EDIT



They paid straight away. Brilliant.

El Horseboxo

Gone for some in play bets


Villa vs Everton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.10

Stake 20


Down vs Kildare (Down over 19.5 points) @ 2.20

Stake 20


Down vs Kildare (Kildare over 17.5 points) @ 2.10

Stake 20


Kildare are a strong second half team and i'm hoping for a performance similar to their Meath one. I see the game being close right to the end so i have a feeling Down can score 8 points.

El Horseboxo

Bastards. Both Kildare and Down within a point of me winning both bets. Kildare were too slow to get back into it in the second half. Glad that Down are in the All Ireland final though.

El Horseboxo

Haven't had a bet since the above until today. Didn't really fancy anything in the internationals and then was in Palestine for a week. I completely forgot about this thread when placing the bets today and by the time i remembered i had already won a bet and there were goals in a few of the other games.

I was trying to get flight money back so i'm going to withdraw today's winnings and just continue on with the previous balance of 1469.67

Anyways i posted today's winnings in the after timing thread.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68047324&postcount=233

El Horseboxo

I usually don't like jumping into the so called "sure thing bets" but when it comes to Chelsea vs Blackpool on Sunday i can only see one outcome. And there are a few bets that look good to come in and are decently priced at present. Come tomorrow evening i reckon they will have fallen a lot.

Blackpool have surprised a few people this year by their current position which has been attributed to 2 decent away wins and just the 1 loss in 4. But they have been against teams i expect to be in the lower half of the table next May. Still i won't take too much away from the achievements so far as they were a team i admired last year. They have great fighting spirit and a never say die attitude. However when they traveled to the Emirates they were anihilated by an Arsenal team that should have scored more than 6. The scoreline may have been different if only for the sending off. But i won't speculate on maybe's. Besides Arsenal have been in great goal scoring form so far and could have easily produced the same results against 11 men.

I still consider Blackpool as having the most defensively inept team in the league despite current stats. They have won games by attacking and outscoring and i don't think they possess the ability to throw everyone behind the ball. It's their nature to attack and if they do that against Chelsea there should be another huge scoreline for the Blues. Especially with Drogba back. Cole should also be back. Anelka is on form and i expect Malouda to get on the scoresheet. Chelsea just have too much strength and attacking options for them not to score at least 3. And they are pretty much inpentrable at the back. Given all this info i'm going to go with

Chelsea (-2.5 AH) @ 1.83

Stake 100

Chelsea (-3) @ 2.70

Stake 50

Chelsea (-4) @ 4.50

Stake 27

And for the craic

Chelsea (7-0) @ 36.00
Chelsea (8-0) @ 71.00
Chelsea (9-0) @ 151.00

Stake 1 euro on each


This could come back to bite me but ah well it's worth the risk. I really feel the first bet should come in which would cover the other stakes.

El Horseboxo

Doncaster vs Leeds (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.90

Doncaster share the title of 2nd highest amount of goals in games involving them so far with 20 goals. Scoring 7 of them at home and 4 away. While conceding 3 at home and 6 away. They're last 4 games have produced 3 or more goals and they have scored from 7 positions. They have the ability to score all over the field and i am confident they should find the net at least once tonight.

Leeds games have also produced 20 goals so far. 6 for and 4 against at home and the reverse away. It's the 6 goals away from home that interest me here which supports my opinion that they will concede at least once. And the 5-2 thrashing they incurred at the hands of Barnsley on Tuesday eases my feelings about it. I don't think they have had enough time to recover from it and should be still vunerable at the back. But they also showed this season that they can score so i expect them to do so tonight too. 4 of their games have also gone over 2.5.

With some teams i always fear they will cancel each other out and produce a low scoring game. Yes that is a risk tonight but i don't think either team is that defensive minded and i see some goals. Leeds are bad at set pieces and Doncaster have scored a few from them. PP have a special of 4 or more goals in this game at odds of 3.60 which i was tempted to take. But then i seen odds of 1.80 for the under 2.5 goals. So i think this may be a bit of a bookie trap as they favor a low scoring game but dangle the big odds of over 3.5 in your face like they favor the possibility of goals. But i'l risk the over 2.5.

Stake 40


I also like the look of Leeds to come from behind and win. They have already done it twice so far this year and are more than capable of doing it again. At odds of 15.00 i'm quite tempted but i'll hold off for now.

El Horseboxo

Balance 1249.67

In play betting

Tyrone over 16.5 points @ 2.25
Stake 249.67

El Horseboxo

Thank fook the line changed as i bet. It has happened a few times against my favor but today it dropped from 16.5 to 15.5 as it was confirming the bet. The odds above should have been 2.37 as i was placing it. Really needed that as Tyrone only got 16 points.



Balance 1561.76

El Horseboxo

2 of the Chlesea bets came in. Not sure how the -4 one didn't and at least one of my scorecast ones. Chelsea just didn't do a thing in the second half.

Balance 1880.09
Profit 1330.09

El Horseboxo

Barcelona to win and Messi to score @ 2.40.

Stake 30.09

Also have a big treble that includes this bet that i forgot i put on while drunk last night. Just noticed it and wouldn't have put the above on had i known that. Not so big in the stake but a nice return.

El Horseboxo

The big bet is was talking about came in as did the above one of Messi to score obviously since i had it in the other one.

However i'm not going to include the treble towards the balance in this thread as i remember why i done it. It was to try get the rest of my flight money which i have recouped and then some. And i wanted to withdraw if i won. Also no need to add in the 50 stake in here as i updated my balance in this thread without looking at my actually balance. So there was already a 50 difference.

The Chelsea (win) part was -3.




Balance 1922.22
Profit 1372.22

El Horseboxo

Patriots @ Jets (Patriots -3) @ evens. PP.

Patriots offense looked good last week and the Jets Defense looks to have a few weaknesses. Mainly in Cromartie. Brady just has too many options while the Jets Sanchez's pass game is pretty much non existant. Jets were strong on the run last season but looked like they were struggling a bit last week. Shone Green had a nightmare game. This fixture is always a difficult one for the Patriots but after last weeks performances from both teams you have to favor the Pats to beat the -3 handicap.

Stake 42.22


Patriots @ Jets (First TD Tate) @ 17.00

Stake 5

Patriots @ Jets (Anytime Tate TD) @ 4.33

Stake 10


Reasoning for the above is that he seems to be well fit now after struggling last season with a knee injury. He looked good last week and returned a 90 odd yard TD last week. Tate also should be up against Cromartie tonight and i just think he'll have too much for him.

El Horseboxo

Stupid 2nd halves. Patriots looked like they well on their way to a win at HT. Then they just sucked for the remaining 2 quarters. 21 points unanswered from the Jets where Sanchez was having a game of his career.

Anyways gonna watch the Indy game and put something on for interest. The Giants were one of the worst teams against TE's last year so i'll be hoping Clark is targeted today and can get in the end zone.

Clark to score a TD.
Stake 20.

Balance 1845

El Horseboxo

Get in there Clark. Really should have went bigger on that bet as he just needed one more TD to equal a record for the most combinations between a QB and TE. Not to mention him and Wayne are Manning's number 1 targets. Ah well. Profit is profit and that's it for tonight.

Balance 1887
Profit 1337

El Horseboxo

Slavia Prague vs Sparta Prague @ 2.50 <7>

Sparta Prague are/were a big name in Europe but they have fell from the grace a lot of people probably remember them as. But they are still a power house in the Czech league. They have all wins from their last 5 games with the exception of a loss to a very good and in form Plzen. So they bring a bit of form into this game themselves. And should be confident after a good win against Palermo last week in the EL.

Slavia on the other hand are in bad form and are really struggling to find the net and capture a win. They've now gone 4 games in a row without a win. They've also been conceding goals very easily and even in their last win against a shít Brno team they let in 2. They have problems and shouldn't be able to turn them around today. Sparta have experience in a lot of critical positions and it should be that experience that sees an away win today. This is a derby game and Sparta should be more motivated for this game as they could do with the 3 points to put them in a position for the title race if Plzen begin to slip up.

Stake 27




Djurgardens vs Malmo @ 2.10 <7>

This is a bit of a risky call as Djurgardens are a strong home side and Malmo aren't the best away from home. Although Malmo have won a few of their last games on the road. But Malmo have the best overall form and should come into this game very motivated as they can extend their lead at the top of the table with a win here. Also with Helsingborgs having the easier of the fixtures tonight they know a slip up tonight can see them share the top spot. Malmo offer the bigger goal threat so i expect them to score. I just hope the home side are a demoralized after their last game and don't repeat the 2 goals they've been scoring at home in recent times. I know my ratings in confidence are the same in both bets so far but i'm not going to bet as big on this one as i'm going to take the overs as well.

Stake 15




Djurgardens vs Malmo (Over 2.5) @ evens <7>

Both teams are in a bit of goal scoring form and both have some weaknesses at the back. I can see a 2-1 scoreline in my head so i will risk the overs here.

Stake 15




Haugesund vs Lillestrom @ 2.10 <6>

I fancy Haugesund here simply because they are in the better form than Lillestrom. Since Haugesund came up they have showed great determination and a good hunger to win. Especially at home where they are a very strong side. A win tonight can see them jump from 8th to 4th position and if they continue the momentum they have they can achieve a very respectable position beyond their expectations come end of season. Lillestrom have struggled all season long away from home and only have 1 away win in 11 games averaging about a goal a game. Haugesund are undefeated at home and have won 7 of those while scoring over an average of 2 a game. Lillestrom are strong at the back and a draw is not out of the question here. But i'll risk the home win at small-ish stakes.

Stake 10

L'prof

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Have no pen and since i'm here i just want to write what i'm looking at for tomorrow. Not taking anything yet. Will edit.

AEL Limassol @ 1.72
CSKA Moscow - 2 @ 2.62
Sparta Prague @ 2.50
Djurgardens vs Malmo @ evens
Malmo @ 2.10
Bursapor @ 2.25
Haugesund @ 2.10
Falkenbergs double chance @ evens
Falkenbergs DNB @ 3.20
Levski Sofia @ evens
Gloria Bistrita @ 2.10
Nacional vs Porto over 2.5 @ evens
Deportivo v Getafe over 2.5 @ 2.25
Reims vs Nantes Djordjevic anytime scorer @ 3.30
Nantes @ 2.90


Marquis Colston anytime TD @ evens
Saints over 24.5 points @ 1.83

Do an accum

El Horseboxo

L'prof wrote: »

Do an accum

Haha. I wouldn't even waste .20 cents on that. But man i'd be sickened if all them came in.

Gonna pick 2 or 3 of them maybe. Really wanted to pick Levski to win but didn't make it home before kick off. Winning 0-2 now.

El Horseboxo

Sparta down a goa after a stupid mistakel but have been all over Slavia since and a feel a goal for them is on the way. If Wilifred stops being shíte. More confident in them getting one goal than a win at this stage. So gonna take them to score a goal @ 2.10.

Stake 20.

El Horseboxo

Sweet. Most of my stake back about 3 minutes or so after the bet. The goal was well on its way though. 1-1 now. Just need a nice 1-2 win now.

EDIT

Get in there Wilifred. About time. I swear i've never seen a game where the ref is afraid to give any decision against the home team. I know it's a derby but there's been free, offside, peno claims galore for Sparta and not one decision goes their way.

Anyways 1-2 now.

EDIT

Finished 1-2 to Sparta. And a nice bit of extra profit from in play betting on them scoring too.

Balance 1909.50
Profit 1359.50

El Horseboxo

The 2 Scandanavian games didn't come through. But a lot of the other bets i had listed did. Typical. One bet i really wanted to do was Djordjevic to score anytime for Nantes at a very generous 3.80. But thanks to Livescore and their times being 1 hour ahead i got the times mixed up. Still a small bit of profit though so can't complain.


Saints @ 49'ers.

A few interest bets in this one while watching the game. Might have an in play bet too.

Marquis Colston anytime TD @ evens.

Stake 9.50

Colston is Brees favorite target in the red zone and after not scoring last week i reckon he'll be looking to get a TD. Brees only throw one TD last week and i see him being back to his old self tonight.


Frank Gore anytime TD @ 1.80

Gore seems to be the 49'ers best chance for scoring tonight. He has to do better than last week as he much more capable than the yardage he rushed for. Most teams don't really play as bad as the week before and i expect a slight improvement from SF with Gore probably getting on the board.

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

GORE TD.

Colston hardly been used yet so hopefully NO get into the red zone more.

c montgomery

Going well, fair play and excellent log:)

El Horseboxo

Thanks Montgomery.

Balance 1908.

There's a few popular bets today that i'm going to try my luck with. So no real need to put up a big explanation as they are pretty obvious to everyone at this stage.


St. Truidense vs Genk @ 1.83 <7>

Odds have been fluctuating on this a bit and can be got for 2.04 on Bet fair. Too lazy to put money in there so i'll stick with the 1.83 on PP. All the stats and history and current form point towards Genk. They are the in form team and are scoring for the craic. Although i hate when that happens as it's usually when a team fúcks up. But Truidense have been struggling and i just can't see them getting a result against Genk who will probably just play the we'll outscore you game. And with over an average of 3 goals a game they are masters of that at the moment.

Stake 20



Sundarland vs West Ham (Gyan to score anytime) @ 2.30 <8>

My confidence in Gyan to score is down to a combo of his goal scoring abilities and also the ineptness of his opponents. Bruce has stated his seriousness about this tournament as has Grant. But if Sunderland take an early lead i can't see West Ham being told to fight for it. They need to conserve their energy for trying to stay up in the PL this year. Gyan should be the main target man tonight and has a great chance of scoring.

Stake 30



Spurs vs Arsenal (Pavlyuchenko to score anytime) @ 2.62 <7>

Very weak looking team out tonight for Arsenal. Especially at the back. Spurs don't look too strong either and both teams are made up of players dying to impress. Pavlyuchenko is a player i rate and i think he has a good chance to score tonight.

EDIT

Just seen the latest Arsenal squad and it looks a lot stronger than the one released earlier. Strong bench too. Ah well.

Stake 20


Also went for a treble of

Brentford vs Everton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.83
Birmingham vs MK Dons (Zigic to score anytime) @ 2.20
Spurs vs Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.57

Total odds 6.34

Everton fielding a strong-ish side against a poor league one team. They may have a good defensive record in their last 4 games but i expect Everton to come outta their shell tonight. Last round they did. Zigic playing up front against a weaker team. Good opportunity for him to score. The spurs game just has overs all over it in my books.

Stake 10

El Horseboxo

Small bit of profit today. Really should have done Zigic as a stand alone bet. But thought the overs would come through in the others. Hindsights a mother fúcker.

Balance 1933
Profit 1383

joekeville

really need to make some money for arthurs day any tips ?

Great job on the log !!

El Horseboxo

Thanks.

Haven't really had a look through much for tomorrow yet. But Man Utd -1 @ evens looks good at first look. But with the Carling Cup it is well worth looking at the line up first. But i would expect even a full Man Utd reserves out to impress to beat a team struggling in the Championship. I read Owen is starting tomorrow and he could well get on the scoresheet. Hernandez, Bebe, Macheda, the Fabio twins, possibly Rio Ferdinand could be in the starting 11. So not completely unknowns. I just watched an interview with Ian Baraclough and he said they will go out and attack and not sit back as trying to hold Utd to a 0-0 is virtually impossible. So this would support my reasoning for Utd to win by 2 or more regardless of what team they put out. But in the betting world nothing is a certain and you shouldn't risk what you can't afford to lose. I'll try post up early tomorrow and you can see if there's anything you fancy.