Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

England vs Spain @ 1.95 (Boylesports)

England without Rooney and an experimental side. Spain with a strong squad. Not going to overthink this one. Spain should have too much for a rotated England side.

Stake 102.44 (Weird stake but it returns bang on 100)

El Horseboxo

Looking through the college football card this week. Have a few leans.

Houston at Tulane +34

Houston on the road = vulnerable defense. UAB put 13 up against them last week and a nothing to lose Tulane should be able to score more. One i'll keep an eye on.

Virgina Tech -1 at Georgia Tech

Looks a good spot for VT to win straight up. Georgia coming off an emotional win as home underdogs against divisional number 1. VT with close wins against unranked teams in their last 2 games. They're only allowing 82.5 yards on the game while GT pass the ball a mere 18% of the time. They have no air attack. If VT can curtail their running game they win this.

Michigan at Illinois

This is at pick now. Robinson should show up this week. He looked a little restrained last week. As if he was under orders not to run when he had the chance. Illinois are in a bit of a funk. Losing their last 3. Gonna be a close game but i think Michigan should find it easier to get back to winning ways.

Wake Forest at Clemson (-16.5)

Clemson should get back on the horse after their loss road against GT. Clemson got a leaky D but they should score too much. I thought this line would have been around -21.5. Especially at home.

Baylor (-19.5) at Kansas

Kansas can't score. They straight suck. Baylor can't stop teams from scoring. But i'm not too worried. They put up points and it should be close to 3 td's. I'd prefer the line to drop a bit. Think money should come in on Kansas. Will be one to watch.

Other leans are

Wisconsin -27
Auburn +13.5
USC -12.5
Toledo -11
Texas

El Horseboxo

The below is a cetain game being discussed in the soccer tips forum. Don't want to post teams here yet. It's well documented which one it is to back the below up if they win.

Home team vs away team (Both to score) @ evens

Stake 20

Home team vs away team (Away team to score over 1.5) @ 5.50

Stake 5

None of my bets went through that time. Bastards.

Ah gone through now. Better be a good tip.

El Horseboxo

Same game. Away team over 3.5 goals at 2.75 and 4-4 FT at 88.00.

20 on first bet. Just 2 on the other.

El Horseboxo

A nice little cash injection on the bets. above. All coming in except for the 2 euro one on the 4-4. Check the live stream thread to see the game name. Not gonna mention it.

Balance 1659.54

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green (Northern Illinois over 44.5) @ evens

Stake 19.54

El Horseboxo

Win the above bet by .5 of a point. Thought it was dead when i went to bed at the half.

Balance 1579.08 (100 in play)

Just opened accounts or used old ones with skybet, VC and Ladbrokes. Gonna try the arb opportunity that Yardie spotted to lock in some profit. Hopefully with the overs or between coming in The unders is the dud in with the way i staked it. I'm not using my balance in this thread as i have just deposited cash into all 3 empty accounts. A total of 1500. I will add the profit to this thread though rather than withdraw it all. May need it for the upcoming NCAAB season.


Bet 1

Bosnia vs Portugal (Over 55 booking points) @ 3.75 (Ladbrokes)

Stake 530


Bet 2

Bosnia vs Portugal (Between 35-55 booking points) @ 3.10 (Sky bet)

Stake 500


Bet 3

Bosnia vs Portugal (Under 35 booking points) @ 3.30 (Victor Chandler)

Stake 470


Total staked 1500


If bet 1 wins the math is

530 * 3.75 = 1987.50 - 1500 = 487.50

That's 487.50 profit.


If bet 2 wins the math is

500 * 3.10 = 1550 - 1500 = 50

That's 50 profit.


If bet 3 wins the math is

470 * 3.30 = 1551 - 1500 = 1.

That's 1 euro profit.

As you can see it's set up favoring the over 55 booking points to come in. So will be hoping for 6 cards for maximum profit. The 2nd bet is a slight bit of profit to make it worth the effort while the 3rd is just a security blanket in case there is 3 or less cards.

Yardie

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Win the above bet by .5 of a point. Thought it was dead when i went to bed at the half.

Balance 1579.08 (100 in play)

Just opened accounts or used old ones with skybet, VC and Ladbrokes. Gonna try the arb opportunity that Yardie spotted to lock in some profit. Hopefully with the overs or between coming in The unders is the dud in with the way i staked it. I'm not using my balance in this thread as i have just deposited cash into all 3 empty accounts. A total of 1500. I will add the profit to this thread though rather than withdraw it all. May need it for the upcoming NCAAB season.


Bet 1

Bosnia vs Portugal (Over 55 booking points) @ 3.75 (Ladbrokes)

Stake 530


Bet 2

Bosnia vs Portugal (Between 35-55 booking points) @ 3.10 (Sky bet)

Stake 500


Bet 3

Bosnia vs Portugal (Under 35 booking points) @ 3.30 (Victor Chandler)

Stake 470


Total staked 1500


If bet 1 wins the math is

530 * 3.75 = 1987.50 - 1500 = 487.50

That's 487.50 profit.


If bet 2 wins the math is

500 * 3.10 = 1550 - 1500 = 50

That's 50 profit.


If bet 3 wins the math is

470 * 3.30 = 1551 - 1500 = 1.

That's 1 euro profit.

As you can see it's set up favoring the over 55 booking points to come in. So will be hoping for 6 cards for maximum profit. The 2nd bet is a slight bit of profit to make it worth the effort while the 3rd is just a security blanket in case there is 3 or less cards.

Nice to see you taking advantage of this man. I hope you got nice bonuses for opening new accounts too!

keane2097

Pretty decent chance of Ladbrokes 11/4 being declared a palpable error and voided - price is 23/20 at best elsewhere so it's clearly a mistake.

Hopefully not too many people get on...

Yardie

keane2097 wrote: »

Pretty decent chance of Ladbrokes 11/4 being declared a palpable error and voided - price is 23/20 at best elsewhere so it's clearly a mistake.

Hopefully not too many people get on...

No chance of that. They have no grounds to void bets. Maybe it will be proven that their price is the correct one anyway. No guarantees this will be a cardfest. Portugal have good discipline record so far. Howard Webb big factor in low price with other bookies IMO.

keane2097

lol, what do you mean they have no grounds -they're offering nearly 2.5x the next best odds across the board, it's the very definition of a palpable error!

Yardie

Sorry for clogging up your log with this Horseboxo. Keane PM me if wanna discuss further. Can mods delete unnecessary posts please.

keane2097

Nothing to discuss, I've already finished explaining it to you.

El Horseboxo

Nah it's cool Yardie bout the posts. I never thought about wrong odds. I just assumed they were calculating the odds differently. Can discuss it here and put my mind at ease. If they voided the bet i'd be fúcked.

keane2097

Yeah I'm on it as well since this morning and hoping for the best, but the more people that get on it the bigger the chance they'll void.

They've suspended the market now I hear.

Fingers crossed for the unders :pac:

El Horseboxo

Yeah i see the market for it has been removed. Hopefully they just suspend it and leave bets taken as they are. If not i'll have to sit and try an in play bet maybe.

Yardie

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Nah it's cool Yardie bout the posts. I never thought about wrong odds. I just assumed they were calculating the odds differently. Can discuss it here and put my mind at ease. If they voided the bet i'd be fúcked.

I understand where Keane is coming from in case of palpaple errors but this is not a palpable error.

It is an untenable argument that they made just made a simple mistake on this. They calculated and published the odds based on what they figured was going to be the market line.

Bet365 opened their cards line at over 4.5 @ 6/5 which is not too far off the 6/4 being offered by Ladbrokes for pretty much same bet. Once they saw how the market react to this they moved their price into 4/6 in line with other bookies. Ladbrokes were just too slow to do this and arechanging it as we speak.

Given that bet365 opened at 6/5 it is safe to say that they would have been over 2/1 for over 5.5 close enough to the 2.75 offered by Ladbrokes fro over 55 points. Ladbrokes priced it how they thought was right and were just too slow adapting to the market and that why this opportunity arose.

If they were to void these bets it would set a precendent for bookies to void bets in any situation where they left themselves over exposed. Where would the line be drawn to say what a palpable error is??
With markets like card index there is quite a low limit on what you can stake and lay so there losses if any will be quite small

keane2097

Man you are seriously having a laugh - voiding a bet like this would be completely standard.

The only question is whether they stand to lose enough money to justify dealing with all the hassle of people moaning about it.

Yardie

keane2097 wrote: »

Man you are seriously having a laugh - voiding a bet like this would be completely standard.

The only question is whether they stand to lose enough money to justify dealing with all the hassle of people moaning about it.

How is it standard when their opening line is similar to opening line of other bookies? can you show an example of this happening before if it is completely standard. Where do they draw the line to say what a palpable error is?

They can technically void it but to do it would set a precendent for bookies voiding anything in the future when the market goes the opposite way to what they thought would happen. There would be uproar and rightly so if they voided this and not over the cash but over the disgression used by bookies to guarantee prices.

El Horseboxo

Actually just thinking. They had over 45 points at 2.50. Then it dropped to 2.25 and then it was suspended. They seem like correct prices and the drop was to do with presumably the amount of people that put money on it from here. Then they suspended it for a bit to change odds etc.

I just read their terms and condition. They won't void a bet in this situation. They will pay out based on the correct odds. Which i assume would be in the region of 3.00 anyways. Surely they haven't messed up across the board with the price for the 45 points market.

So if it is around 3 worst come to worst is i get returned 1590. Still 90 profit. And if the price is lower it's not too much of a loss. Mind eased.

El Horseboxo

Yardie wrote: »

I understand where Keane is coming from in case of palpaple errors but this is not a palpable error.

It is an untenable argument that they made just made a simple mistake on this. They calculated and published the odds based on what they figured was going to be the market line.

Bet365 opened their cards line at over 4.5 @ 6/5 which is not too far off the 6/4 being offered by Ladbrokes for pretty much same bet. Once they saw how the market react to this they moved their price into 4/6 in line with other bookies. Ladbrokes were just too slow to do this and arechanging it as we speak.

Given that bet365 opened at 6/5 it is safe to say that they would have been over 2/1 for over 5.5 close enough to the 2.75 offered by Ladbrokes fro over 55 points. Ladbrokes priced it how they thought was right and were just too slow adapting to the market and that why this opportunity arose.

If they were to void these bets it would set a precendent for bookies to void bets in any situation where they left themselves over exposed. Where would the line be drawn to say what a palpable error is??
With markets like card index there is quite a low limit on what you can stake and lay so there losses if any will be quite small

Your argument fits with how i see it. Bookies release odds earlier than other bookies in order to try get business ahead of others. They calculated the the over 55 points market at 3.75. When they seen everyone else had lower odds they brought it down and updated it. To me that is not error as in we meant to put lower odds. That was them just using their stats wrong.

Yardie

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Your argument fits with how i see it. Bookies release odds earlier than other bookies in order to try get business ahead of others. They calculated the the over 55 points market at 3.75. When they seen everyone else had lower odds they brought it down and updated it. To me that is not error as in we meant to put lower odds. That was them just using their stats wrong.

Exactly man. The idea of them voiding it is ludicrous and I am wondering if Keane is just here on a wind up mission!

If they were to void it what else would it entitle bookies to void. Take for example goalscorer bets last weekend. bet 365 were offering around 7/1 for Ibrahimovic hattrick whereas Unibet were offering 18/1. Huge difference in price but had Ibra scored a hattrick would Unibet have been entitled to say they made a palpable error and odds should've been 7/1??

El Horseboxo

College hoops started the other night. Would have went 1-1 had i bet on my leans. Overs just went slightly under while Valpo covered against Arizona. But tonight one bet interests me. The thing with college basketball is it's a season long journey. You may lose 2, 3, 4 or 6 games in a row but then you go on a tear. It's a pretty streaky sport. But the main goal is to be in profit the end of the season. So if anyone is going to follow. Please be aware of that. Also the way i bet in this is to win whole units in 100's. For example a majority of the odds will the 1.90. So i will bet 110 to win 100. The lowest i'll go is half a unit. So that would be 55 to win 50.

Anyways on to tonight. It's a bet i haven't taken yet because i expect it to rise during the game as i'm going for the underdog. They should find themselves down and i only want the line at about a point or 2 more. So hoping i get it. Just a small enough bet though as it is the start of the season.


Le High at St. Johns (Hoping for +13.5 to +14.5. Currently at +12.5) @ 1.90

Took the bolded bet.

This is St. Johns second game in 3 days. They played Tuesday night at home and won by 15 points against a bad team. They are also in a weak division. The 15 points doesn't reflect the game. I watched it and William & Mary kept it close right up until about 5 minutes into the second half. They were even leading by 11 points at one stage. Actually they were up by 7 at the half. But they just collapsed in the second half and turned the ball over 9 straight times. Each turnover resulted in a score for St. Johns. But W&M still managed to get back into it. For the entire game they turned it over 21 times. On your home turf playing against a bad team you shouldn't be only winning by 15. I'd expect close to double that.

St. John's is a good program but they lost all the senior players last year bar one. They are all freshmen on the team and it showed. Too much confusion, not enough cohesion and lack of fully knowing the plays. This team is also without their coach. He had prostate cancer and is recovering from surgery. A team without it's coach can affect it greatly. So that's no coach and a bunch of players that never played together before. They were also quite spotty from the free throw line.

LeHigh are a pretty solid team. A lot lot better than William and Mary. But the spread opened at +13.5. Whereas the W&M spread was +8.5. I don't get why LeHigh are getting more points. I think it's pretty much because St. Johns won by 15 and the set this spread high so people will jump on SJ. And they have. It's a big public bet. But given the problems listed above i think LeHigh can stay within 13 points. They only travel from Pennsylvania which is less than a 3 hour bus ride to New York. So traveling shouldn't be a factor and they've been practicing since Monday. Last year they were a high scoring team. Mostly down to having the highest scorer in college ball. They also have 4 starters returning from last year. I think this game is going to come down to turnovers. If LeHigh can control that aspect they could possibly even win. But as it's early i'd stick to taking big points. William & Mary had no real go to guy. Nobody that takes control when running the ball. So they passed it around. That's what results in turnovers. When you have a team on a tear you get players afraid to shoot in fear of the tear continuing. LeHigh have their go to guys. They know what to do and won't pass it around in fear. LeHigh should also have a better defense this year than William & Mary. So there's a lot of aspects going to support the Underdog covering the spread.

Stake 55

EDIT

St. John's coach Steve Lavin is back on the sidelines. They kept that secret. Just revealed now. Still he hasn't been involved with the team for the past month. So other than the emotional aspect i don't think he'll influence SJ's play too much.

Juwwi

St Johns at -1.5 10/11 do u think they will turn the game around?

+12.5 looks huge now

edit st johns +4.5 now

El Horseboxo

I think they'll cut it back. Maybe from the start of the second half. I expect them to take the lead at some stage. LeHigh opened the game with 5 straight 3's. No way they keep up that pace and shooting. Few turn overs already that have gave up points. Within 7 now.

stingerro

Nice to see your bet looking good. A few days back I was doing a quite deep research over NCAAB punters worthy tailing, just for a comparison here's a pro St.John's bet placed by one of them:

LeHigh @ St.Johns after looking long and hard at this game for over 48 hours I have come to the conclusion that the play once again is St.Johns. Here we go boys here is the write up on this game. Well I already did a write up LeHigh earlier in this thread but I have found a small leak I am loving very much that is not being looked at. LeHigh does have the Nations leading scorer coming back. Yes that is correct little LeHigh has the Nations leading scorer coming back this year CJ McCollum one of the Star Juniors on this squad with an average of 21.8 points a game but lets look at what William and Mary had with there leading scorer Quinn McDowell who averaged 15.5 points a game last season he wasn't able to carry the load. The Stat I'm looking at though is the fact that McCollum averaged 7.7 steals a game almost 8 steals a game. I enjoy that stat actually and it works in my favor. Lets understand that LeHigh will want to play a slow paced game but if McCollum does go for those steals they will throw the LeHigh Defense and OFFENSE completely out of discombobulation because if they do convert the pace of the game is going to go into St.Johns favor and if they don't convert on the Steals St.Johns is still going to put high pressure on this squad and make this go crazy. The catalyst player we have to be worried about though if you are taking St.Johns is Holden Greiner the 6'7 Junior for LeHigh. St.Johns needs to keep him under 15 points IMO.

So here its boys 3X UNITS on St. Johns -12.5

It should be an interesting ride with NCAAB

El Horseboxo

stingerro wrote: »

Nice to see your bet looking good. A few days back I was doing a quite deep research over NCAAB punters worthy tailing, just for a comparison here's a pro St.John's bet placed by one of them: It should be an interesting ride with NCAAB

That's an opinion i could only come to after a few games. Steals from last year with a team running a system full of players that have been together for 2+ seasons vs 1 junior and a team full of freshmen with only one game to go on. You can't really compare the 2 and expect the same output. As has been seen already. St. John's are struggling with the man D. The -12.5 may come in for St. John's if they start this second half like the last game. But they are looking a little short on offense so far. I took the +14.5 when St. John's went 4-0 up at the start. Game is pretty much going how i expected it to so far. But there's an entire second half left. So lets see what happens.

El Horseboxo

Shít noticed my 14.5 bet didn't save when i edited the above post. Took the +14.5 which was the figure i said i was looking for. 55 euro's at 1.90.

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Miami (OH) at Temple (Over 44.5) @ 1.90

Stake 22

El Horseboxo

LeHigh cover after leading the entire game only to run outta steam and depend on the 3 ball too much. Depending on the spread this St. John's team could be fade material. Wonder how they'll do against the bigger teams and what what sort of spread will be given.

And another O/U bet coming in by .5. Thank fook Miami put up 21 points cause Temple looked shíte without their main running guy and new QB. I'll take it though.


Balance 1649.08 (100 in play)