Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

Gonna do a bit of flip flopping on an earlier post. Watched the highlights of the GT/Clemson game and i like what GT have been doing on D. And their running game could get through VT tonight. I actually like them to win straight up. Gonna take them plus anything over a FG if i can. Could of took +3.5 there but it was 1.66 for some reason. They seem reluctant to increase the spread despite the VT drive. Good sign.

El Horseboxo

In play bet. Line fell below the 4 td mark. I'd feel more confident with that line than them winning by 5. Slow start as usual on the road. They should pick it up.

Houston (-25.5) at Tulane @ 1.90

Stake 33

El Horseboxo

Some leans for tomorrow in the college ball.

Northern Illinois (+26.5) at Purdue @ 1.90

Purdue lost 2 big stars last year and have a different side. Should win the game quite easily but i'd expect some experimentation mid second half to get some the bench some minutes. Especially with it being their opener. Anyways they never really destroy teams. Just put them out of slight reach and control the clock.


Tennessee Tech (+12) at Miami @ 1.90

I think this Miami team is overrated and comes with too much hype. I don't like the Miami program at all. And that includes their football team. They're supposed to be a surprise team this year but i think they're being built up too much. Reggie Johnson is gone. Injured for the season. He's pretty much their only good inside scorer. Their back up center is out too. Who they gonna rotate with? The tall guys take a lot of pounding during the games. I really like this bet and will most likely be going against Miami.

El Horseboxo

Houston blows out Tulane. Looks like they got over their hump of covering big spreads on the road this season. Just as well i didn't realize the game was on Thursday night or i may have went for Tulane +34.5 as i mentioned earlier. Also didn't know the Chargers were playing last night. Only for that i probably would have put 110 on Georgia to cover anything over +3.5. My initial pre game lean was the right one though.


Tennessee Tech (+12.5) at Miami Fla @ 1.90 (This bet was at bwin by the way)

I'll edit in reason later. Have a stupid conference call with Buenos Aires in a while. Hate their spanish. Anyways i briefly touched on it above.


EDIT

As mentioned above i think this Miami team is tipped to do greater things than they can possibly achieve. I really don't get the love. Reggie Johnson who played in the power forward/center spot was their only player to cross the 10 barrier in average points per game. He was also their leading rebounder with close to 10 a game. He was their inside guy. He was their only threat at grabbing the ball and putting it down after missed shots. And they have a few missed shots as their PG/SG were shooting around 45%. The other news is that their backup center is also out. Gamble won't feature and instead they'll play a freshman. Opening game on a Friday night in your first college game on a team with big expectations. I think nerves will be a factor.

Although Tennessee Tech is in a weaker division they are one of the favorites to lead it. They have a solid enough team and have held onto 4 starters and a majority of their team that resulted in close to 90% of their scoring last season. So they don't have any of the injury/freshman worries that Miami bring to the game. One key aspect of teams in the new season that usually holds true is the return of their previous season highest scorers. Because in practice they should have better chemistry and more composure. Depending on the team they should have also upped their game due to work with the coaching staff. Tennessee Tech will start their last seasons top 3 scorers. Unless there is a seriously slow start the points projected per game falls well within the 12.5 spread.

I'm not pipping TT to win this game. I think Miami should make a late run and close the game out but i can't see it being by double digits. I don't like basing pre season form on regular season games but Miami really struggled against a woeful Florida Southern. They were losing on their own turf to these guys and only took the lead close to the end of the game. The reason why they fell behind was the inside game. I just don't know how Miami are going to have much success under the rim. Rebounds win games and if you can't recover you own or the opponents you are in trouble. Miami could well lose this game but i think they pull it out somehow.

Stake 110


Balance 1569.08 (210 in play)

El Horseboxo

University Illinois Chicago at Eastern Michigan (-5) @ 1.90

Never a game i'd watch because it would be too painful. Both teams completely suck on offense so there'd be nothing exciting and seeing a bunch of guys struggling with the basics is never enjoyable. However one team holds an advantage. And that advantage is on defense. The 6' 9" Jamell Harris is a menace in the paint against what are usually poor offenses in the MAC. Now if you suck on offense and you come up against somebody that can block shots and grab rebounds you are going to be limited in your scoring even further. Usually if there is an inside threat you go to your outside shooters. But what do you do when you don't have any outside shooters? You don't put up much points. That's what. Now UIC were terrible last year. And they have lost 3 starters. 3 important players to them gone and have been replaced with even worse players.

UM are far from a good offense. They are bad too. Maybe slightly better than UIC due to a decent PG. They also have 4 starters from last year returning which may make them a bit better this year. Anyways i see them outscoring the visitors here mainly by stopping them scoring. When a team can't get going on offense they can't really defend at full strength because they pick up fouls and have to rotate which makes their team even weaker. And that's even worse when on the road because you don't have the home crowd to pick you up. First game, freshmen, crap offense, no inside game, crap outside shooting, up against a strong D and no home court advantage. Really good chance for the home team to cover the -5 points.

Stake 55

El Horseboxo

I'm out locked right now but I love when a game plays out like how you expected after hours of study. Just need Michigan to close the game out now for a good night. No loss anyways.

El Horseboxo

The 2 ncaab bets win to bring in some nice profit and a 3-0 start to the college ball season. Now to lose it all in the ncaaf.

Balance 1829.08 (100 in play)

Peyton Manning

El Horseboxo wrote: »

The 2 ncaab bets win to bring in some nice profit and a 3-0 start to the college ball season. Now to lose it all in the ncaaf.

Balance 1829.08 (100 in play)

I preferred this pre-edit. That must have been uncomfortable to wear, but hey, who am I to judge!

Hope the head isn't in too bad a state this morning! :pac:

El Horseboxo

Cam Newton wrote: »

I preferred this pre-edit. That must have been uncomfortable to wear, but hey, who am I to judge!

Hope the head isn't in too bad a state this morning! :pac:

I'm never wearing a g string again. It left a scar. One of my few talents in life is the inability to get hangovers. So i'm all good. Onto some college football.

El Horseboxo

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Win the above bet by .5 of a point. Thought it was dead when i went to bed at the half.

Balance 1579.08 (100 in play)

Just opened accounts or used old ones with skybet, VC and Ladbrokes. Gonna try the arb opportunity that Yardie spotted to lock in some profit. Hopefully with the overs or between coming in The unders is the dud in with the way i staked it. I'm not using my balance in this thread as i have just deposited cash into all 3 empty accounts. A total of 1500. I will add the profit to this thread though rather than withdraw it all. May need it for the upcoming NCAAB season.


Bet 1

Bosnia vs Portugal (Over 55 booking points) @ 3.75 (Ladbrokes)

Stake 530


Bet 2

Bosnia vs Portugal (Between 35-55 booking points) @ 3.10 (Sky bet)

Stake 500


Bet 3

Bosnia vs Portugal (Under 35 booking points) @ 3.30 (Victor Chandler)

Stake 470


Total staked 1500


If bet 1 wins the math is

530 * 3.75 = 1987.50 - 1500 = 487.50

That's 487.50 profit.


If bet 2 wins the math is

500 * 3.10 = 1550 - 1500 = 50

That's 50 profit.


If bet 3 wins the math is

470 * 3.30 = 1551 - 1500 = 1.

That's 1 euro profit.

As you can see it's set up favoring the over 55 booking points to come in. So will be hoping for 6 cards for maximum profit. The 2nd bet is a slight bit of profit to make it worth the effort while the 3rd is just a security blanket in case there is 3 or less cards.

Completely forgot about this till now. Bet 3 won with just 3 cards in the game. Must have looked very good at half time with 3 yellows and then nothing for the remainder of the game. So 1 euro profit. Well actually 61 as Ladbrokes gave me a free 50 bet and Skybet gave me 10. Just withdrew the 1551 from VC and i'll add the free bets to my balance in here.


Balance 1890.08 (100 in play)

El Horseboxo

Just the one double so far.

Baylor (-20) at Kansas @ 1.83
Wake Forest at Clemson (-16.5) @ 1.95

Total odds 3.58

Stake 19.56

El Horseboxo

Spain lose and my only football double losses. Still up on the week.

Just gonna have a few singles and maybe a double or two on the early games. Keep it small enough.

Texans (-4) at Buccaneers @ 1.90

Stake 22


Bills at Cowboys (-5) @ 1.90

Stake 22



Steelers (-4) at Bengals @ 1.90
Broncos at Chiefs (-3) @ 1.80

Total odds 3.43

Stake 7.21


Balance 1819.11 (51.41 in play)

orourkeda

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Spain lose and my only football double losses. Still up on the week.

Just gonna have a few singles and maybe a double or two on the early games. Keep it small enough.

Texans (-4) at Buccaneers @ 1.90

Stake 22


Bills at Cowboys (-5) @ 1.90

Stake 22



Steelers (-4) at Bengals @ 1.90
Broncos at Chiefs (-3) @ 1.80

Total odds 3.43

Stake 7.21


Balance 1819.11 (51.41 in play)

Do you do all your bets with the same bookmaker\exchange or simplya put your money on the best available price?

Probably a foolish question.

El Horseboxo

orourkeda wrote: »

Do you do all your bets with the same bookmaker\exchange or simplya put your money on the best available price?

Probably a foolish question.

I tend to use bet365 a majority of the time because most of my money is in there. But i do use oddschecker for the various sites i have accounts with. As i bet mostly American sports where spread is very important i mainly look for a better spread rather than slightly better odds. Usually it may be 1.86 on bet365 for a spread of -3.5 and it may be 1.91 for the same spread elsewhere. But if -3 was elsewhere at 1.83 i'd take the bet with that site if i have an account. I wouldn't really switch for a difference of .5 cents unless i was putting huge money on it.

Juwwi

Hi EL horsebox what do you think of this PP special.

49'ers, chicago and NY Jets all to win at 4/1.

the odds come to 3/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-nfl-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=374270&leg=stamp~|hcap_value~|selections~106421632|stake~0&bs_add_leg_to_slip=1&#area=nh

El Horseboxo

robbie1977 wrote: »

Hi EL horsebox what do you think of this PP special.

49'ers, chicago and NY Jets all to win at 4/1.

the odds come to 3/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-nfl-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=374270&leg=stamp~|hcap_value~|selections~106421632|stake~0&bs_add_leg_to_slip=1&#area=nh

Sorry only seeing this now. The only team i fancy to win outta those 3 is Chicago. I think the Giants will win straight up as will the Patriots. The Giants need to win and have the better QB. And there's something about Brady coming into a game as an underdog. He nearly always performs.

Juwwi

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Sorry only seeing this now. The only team i fancy to win outta those 3 is Chicago. I think the Giants will win straight up as will the Patriots. The Giants need to win and have the better QB. And there's something about Brady coming into a game as an underdog. He nearly always performs.

No problem I did it anyway just for the value of it.

I did think the last 1 was the dodgiest myself hopefully l get that far and could asways back New England +3 to cover the stake.

El Horseboxo

The 2 singles win. Really should have went big on both as i thought the lines were way off.

Balance 1903.11

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Patriots (+3.5) at Jets @ 1.90

Stake 55

EDIT

Ah bollix the above bet didn't go through. I clicked on it and came straight here to post it up but the line had changed. Hope NE doens't score on this drive because i think they win this straight up.

CriticEyes

Anything jumping out at you tonight? Trying to build up enough money to go out on the piss tomorrow for the cousins going away party and thanks to pyro I have a bit but would like to have a wee go on the game tonight. The ones I liked was the unders or packers -13? Any thoughts. Cheers.

El Horseboxo

Heading out now for a while but i like the Packers to win by more than 2 TD's. Only think that has stopped me so far is that it's such an obvious public bet given the start to the season the Packers have had. I imagine the Vikings will turn the ball over a fair bit and Rodgers will punish them. The game was a bit closer last time in Minnesota but on GB's how ground i reckon they're good for a victory by 2 td's or more. Just heading out now. I'll look into it more when i'm back after 12.

El Horseboxo

Vikings at Packers (Over 49) @ 1.90 (Boyle sports. Had to call up. Site under maintenance.)

Gonna leave the sides alone for an in play bet maybe. Forgot the Vikings were off a bye this week. I still fancy Green Bay to win by more than 14 but the fact that everyone is on the Packers is making me question my confidence. Maybe over thinking it perhaps.

I just feel that the Vikings can score on them. Especially given how leaky the Packers have been. They've been giving up an average of 20 points a game at home. They've also been giving up an average of 106 yards on the ground per home game. So far this season the Packers have only faced 2 top 10 rushing teams outside of Minnesota. They were Denver and Carolina and both teams scored 23 points against them. Denver was the only home game. And the last time these 2 teams met the Vikings put up 27 points against them. And the Packers are usually more defensive on the road. They are susceptible to the run and the Vikings have a top 3 rusher in their ranks. Ponder has showed he can moved the chains and has a decent arm on him. But he is also vulnerable to throwing picks. The Packers are giving up 4.7 yards per rush attempt at home while the Vikings average 4.7 on the road. Peterson should be able to clock up close to or over a hundred and should be good for at least a touchdown.

Given the above stats and info i think the Vikings can get themselves into manageable positions for Ponder to try the ball with a successful run game. Unless they really have an off day and the Green Bay defense simultaneously steps up above it's home average i fail to see how the Vikings don't score at around 20-23 points. Minnesota give up an average of 26.5 points on the road while Green Bay average 38.3 at home. Minny are third from the bottom in the amount of pass completions allowed with 24.4. They are also allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt. We all know Rodgers and the Packers can score. Seemingly at will in some games. So if the Vikings enforce the stats they should bring this over the total.

Stake 55

El Horseboxo

Thank fook for Flynn at the end and the Cobb fumble other wise the total woulda never came close to over. Vikings got zero running game going. Zero anything going. Thanks to the fumble on the punt return i doubt they would have scored. Really thought the Packers were gonna run the clock on pass on third if necessary. But Flynn outta nowhere with a great pass to Finely and then finishes off running it in himself. Beautiful.

Balance 1953.11


One bet in the NCAAB basketball today so far that i took a while ago.

Rutgers at Miami (-7.5) @ 1.90

I know i didn't talk too favorably about Miami when i went against then in a previous bet. But basketball presents a lot of value in certain situations as match ups are often overlooked by bookies and they base it on the prestige, division etc of a college. In this game i think Miami hold a big advantage. Not overly because of a Miami angle but more of a Rutgers angle. Rutgers are being given too much credit in this spot due to the division they are in. Tennessee Tech is a better team than Rutgers in my opinion despite Tenn Tech being in a worse division. But yet TT got 13.5 points. That's a differential of 6 points which is quite significant as it crosses a the key numbers of 3 and 5. So a worse team is getting less points to cover. That peaks my interest.

You'll hear me mention freshmen a lot early in the season. Freshmen are newbies with no exposure to college basketball. High school is completely different and when you factor in the pressure from experienced team mates, tv coverage, bigger audiences, traveling to hostile schools and just more pressure in general it can really affect a team. Rutgers are a team that has to rely on a fair majority of freshmen after they lost 2 starters and about half of their bench. That's a lot of young guys trying to rotate into a team that struggled on offense last year. I just can't see how they'll improve. Especially early in the season. They won their last game by 6 points against one of the worst teams in college ball. They were even losing at half time. I don't expect them to keep up with Miami and should find themselves down over 10 points for a majority of the game. This is their first road game of the year and think they will find themselves out of their depth in a hostile environment. They've no big man to pull down the rebounds on either end of the court so they should lose that battle.

As mentioned earlier i said i didn't talk too favorably about Miami last time out. I still think they are overrated. But they have the better players and more experience in the game. Better shooters, better floor commanders at the PG spot and more height to bolster the inside game. I seen the highlights of the TT at Mia game and Miami did exceed my expectations a little bit. They looked to be handling the injuries and rotation better than i thought. Still one thing that worries me is their shooting which is still spotty. But they are by far the better athletic team and with favorable match ups against a team team prone to turning it over they should up their shooting percentage tonight.

I had to laugh at this below article.

http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/index.ssf/2011/11/rutgers_sweats_out_season-open.html

Tired after 3-4 minutes? Wow. Miami should have them gassed in transition tonight.

Stake 110

keysersoze0330

Yeah was a nice one on the overs. I headed for bed at half time resigned to a lost bet. Nice surprise this morning

slookie

Rutgers at Miami (-7.5) @ 1.90

It's on at midnight and i'll get to a write up before then. Have to fly out.

Stake 110[/QUOTE]

It's gone to -8 now...still worth taking?

El Horseboxo

slookie wrote: »

Rutgers at Miami (-7.5) @ 1.90

It's on at midnight and i'll get to a write up before then. Have to fly out.

Stake 110

It's gone to -8 now...still worth taking?[/QUOTE]

I would. I'd bet no more than -9.5. If you really wanted to bet on the game you may get something lower in play. But i see Miami winning this by double digits.

slookie

Feck, I should have taken it earlier....gone to -9.5 now. Took it anyway.

El Horseboxo

If they don't win by double digits i'll be surprised. I put the spread at around a 14-16 point win. But i always take a 3 pointer and a successful trip to the line off on onto the spread as cover which is why i wouldn't take more than -9.5 in this case. But i think they'll cover the -9.5 you took.


In the football later i'm leaning towards Northern Illinois covering the -18 spread but i think i prefer the under 72.5. I see like a 45-21 win for the home side. NIU will look to run the ball against a weak rush defense that is giving up almost 230 yards a game and 5 yards a rush attempt. That should eat time off the clock. Ball state give up almost a first down on each play. Close to 10 yards per pass play. So NIU should have no problem getting up the field. But i don't think Ball State scores heavily against NIU to make it a shoot out. The line looks a little high due to some of the recent games NIU has been involved in. But Ball state on the road only average 21.8 point which is even inflated due to big points put up in last 2 games. They're off a bye and can't see them continuing on that tempo.

Not sure if i'll bet on this though. The MAC throws up some crap games.

luis suarez

Thanks mate i followed you on miami after reading your log

keysersoze0330

+1