Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

Juwwi

Ah balls I taught I after backing the wrong team :(

Read the write up earlier and noticed the bigger stake and taught I must do it.
Im on Ohio -9.5

Well done tho.

El Horseboxo

Good 15 point win. Never really in doubt as the Rutgers run was too early and they were always gonna have to foul. Miami are good from the line so i still confident they'd keep it over 10 points. Glad some others made money too. 4-0 start in college hoops. Usually i'd start slow and finish strong.

Finally crossed the 2k mark and just slightly more than double my starting bank.

Balance 2053.11

El Horseboxo

robbie1977 wrote: »

Ah balls I taught I after backing the wrong team :(

Read the write up earlier and noticed the bigger stake and taught I must do it.
Im on Ohio -9.5

Well done tho.

Ohio State or Miami (Ohio)? Hope it's Ohio State as there's a good chance they cover -9.5. There's a lot of similarity in college names in basketball. I always look at the opponent to make sure it's the right one before taking it. I've made the mistake you have before. Luckily it was pre game and i could just cancel it by taking the other team.

Juwwi

Ohio State in a 50 double with duke -7.
I think it was the line on your bet changong to -9.5 awell as Ohio State that confused me I dont know what happened.

Ohio State are -12.5 in running now I might just back the other team
if Duke hold out.

Sorry I've took ur thread off topic.



Duke were over 20 points up in the second half and win by 5.
Gambling can be a cruel game at times.
Ohio State now up by 13 aswll..ah well

El Horseboxo

Ah shít dude. There can be some horrible swings in basketball. Unfortunately they're rarely in your favor.

And not to worry bout posting in here. I'm not one to care bout what way the topic goes.

El Horseboxo

A lean for tonight in the ncaab

Creighton (+3) at UAB

UAB has lost it's player of the year last season and another important starter. UAB normally depend on a strong PG. But this year they have somebody they are trying to break into the system. They run a lot of their plays through the wings but i don't think they'll have much success with that this early in the season. They will be forced to go inside and that's where they struggle to match up with Creightons defense. UAB are strong on defense too so there is risk with this hence why it is a lean. But down the stretch they shouldn't be able to contain the Creighton offense. They're more athletic, more gelled considering the pre season they had and they've more experience with 2 players having played for their respective national teams during the summer. I actually think the road team wins this straight up. May consider a half unit. I'll keep an eye on line movement anyways.

Peyton Manning

Got a tip of New Mexico -12 for tonight dude, what do you make of it? I know very little outside of what I catch on sportscentre, PTI, ATH etc. All I know is this guy is a good college basketball tipster like yourself. I just hate passing on a good tip

El Horseboxo

Cam Newton wrote: »

Got a tip of New Mexico -12 for tonight dude, what do you make of it? I know very little outside of what I catch on sportscentre, PTI, ATH etc. All I know is this guy is a good college basketball tipster like yourself. I just hate passing on a good tip

Both took some hits on losing starters but i think NMSU lost players that were more important to their team. With home court advantage and a more talented team and better match ups i think New Mexico can win by close to 20 points. I haven't really gone through researching that bet so i don't know the ins and out of it and i'm just running out the door now so can't really provide much more info now. If i'm back before the tip i'll look into.

Peyton Manning

Cheers, no need to do anything too in depth, I'd never bet big on a bet I haven't researched myself or a sport I'm unfamiliar with anyway, more of an interest bet than anything.

El Horseboxo

College football in play bet

Ohio (-3) at Bowling Green @ 1.90

Stake 22

El Horseboxo

Cam Newton wrote: »

Cheers, no need to do anything too in depth, I'd never bet big on a bet I haven't researched myself or a sport I'm unfamiliar with anyway, more of an interest bet than anything.

Having a quick look and this would be a game i'd probably stay away from. I'd be leaning towards New Mexico to cover the -12 spread but as it's a big rivalry game and is taking place much earlier in the season than previous seasons it's hard to get a read on both teams other than from a statistical stand point. Both are pretty evenly matched on the inside but NMSU a worse on the perimeter. The pit is a difficult place to come play but as both return 4 starters you have players on both sides that have at least 2 rivalry games under the belt. I usually go through and circle games in the calendar before the season that i look to research based on situation. The one i circled is the second meeting between these teams just after Christmas. I will be hoping for a home team blow out so they line gets a little inflated for the next meeting. But i can't really get a read in this one. If NMU play to their potential and dominate the boards i think they can win in the 16-20 point range. But unless i have a strong angle i stay away from rivalries. Good luck if you take it.

El Horseboxo

El Horseboxo wrote: »

College football in play bet

Ohio (-3) at Bowling Green @ 1.90

Stake 22

Bought out of this bet. Holy fúck the mac is crap. Took bowling green +3.5 at 1.86 for 25. An Ohio 3 point win would be nice.

El Horseboxo

St. John's at Arizona @ 1.90

Write up to follow. Expect this line to move quick. Have a lot of confidence in this.

Stake 165

slookie

Arizona gone to -1.5 now.

Fr Tierney

Schedules show this is a home game for St John's, where you show it as a home game for Arizona.
Are you still confident ?

El Horseboxo

slookie wrote: »

Arizona gone to -1.5 now.

I'd still take that. Not very often games are won by a point. To me -1 and -1.5 is pretty much a team to win straight up. I'll be putting up reasoning once at a computer. Hate long posts on a phone.

El Horseboxo

Fr Tierney wrote: »

Schedules show this is a home game for St John's, where you show it as a home game for Arizona.
Are you still confident ?

I put it that way because Arizona are technically the home team. It's part of a series of games at Madison Square Garden today/tonight. St. John's usually play at Carnesseca in Queens. They only play at MSG in some big games. Teams always get up for games at MSG. Arizona has won 11 of the 12 games they've played there. Games like this happen now and then where a team dons their home jersey's on someone else's court. They're 23-1 in such situations. Anyways I factored the game wasn't in Arizona when capping it. It should be a close enough game down the stretch.

El Horseboxo

Slight 1 euro odd lose due to buying out of that Ohio bet. When a team picks up 4 turns overs and gets only 6 points off them despite being in the red zone 4 times and couldn't stop the other team from marching down the field it's best you lose hope of it ever coming in. As soon as it hit +3.5 i was out. Pathetic league. Never betting MAC again.

Balance 1887.61 (165 in play)

El Horseboxo

As posted up earlier i'll add the reasoning now.

St. John's at Arizona @ 1.90

I've already made money by going against St. John's in the Lehigh game. And i hope to make more by going against them tonight. They're a good program but they suffered heavily from graduations and transfers between last season and this season. Which means they have no senior players, just 1 junior and a whole bunch of freshmen that were without their coach until the 2nd game of this season due to cancer. Whatever about an experienced team laden with seniors losing their coach. But when a new team can't get his practice drills in and his knowledge pre season you should start slow. And that is what has been happening. William & Mary led at the half as an 8.5 point underdog and LeHigh were 10 points up at the half as a 13.5 point underdog. W&M are a crap team while LeHigh are a decent team. They should have won and played the best basketball. They pretty much choked and shít the bed mid second half and allowed St. John's to get back into it. They couldn't make anything from the perimeter at all and began losing everything on the inside. St. John's only convincing win was their last game against Maryland-Baltimore Country. And UMBC are a horrible team with just 33% shooting and 52 points a game. So i won't read into that game too much as freshmen or not they were expected to win big.

Arizona are a ranked team and only lost 2 starters. Their bench returns players from last year which gives them more depth than St. John's. Depth should be a problem for St. John's against a tough athletic defensive team. The 3 starters that Arizona return are all seniors too. One of whom is Kyle Fogg, their star and if he performs tonight i really can't see Arizona losing. Another important player is Jesse Perry who will have the task of guarding God's Gift Achiuwa (His real name). It will be a tough task but i believe the experience of the Arizona senior will win out in the end. Actually experience and depth are the 2 things that should win this game for Arizona as both are pretty evenly matched. Neither had a traditional big man and both have talented wing players. But where SJU opponents have bowed down in the final stretch to allow them to get back into it, it shouldn't happen tonight if everything goes according to how i see it. So if they find themselves down against a strong defensive unit it should be a new situation for them. Arizona have been in big games, high pressure situations and deep in tournaments. They know the drill and how to close out games. They have had spots of poor play in their 3 wins so far and haven't blown out teams. But they know how to win a game when it comes down to the final 2 minutes.

This is technically a home game for Arizona on paper. They will wear their home shirts and i think there is a slight psychology effect due to this. Seeing the familiar colors subconsciously assures players despite a different environment. There's been various studies on this. Regardless they have went 11-1 in their last 12 games at MSG. Their coach has played there back in the day and he knows how to handle his team for such an arena. Obviously St. John's will have the home support as it's not far from their regular home court. But i don't think it will be a huge factor as St. John's have been playing at home in the 2 games they were down at the half against a crap team and a decent team. Famous arena, national tv, freshmen equals a fair amount of pressure. I think the seniority and experience of Arizona handles this better. I expect Arizona to pull out early, St. John's get back into it and makes it a close second half with Arizona closing the game out in the final few plays. I envision a 5-6 point win. Despite the high stakes this is a risky bet as sometimes inexperienced players can get up for a game. I will be surprised if Arizona doesn't win though.

Stake 165

Would you take a line of -2.5?

El Horseboxo

Deleted User wrote: »

Would you take a line of -2.5?

I would because i have this game capped at Arizona -4. Only reason it opened at pick is because the game is at MSG i reckon. However if i was going -2.5 i wouldn't be going too big as it obviously holds more risk. There's been a lot of close games so far. 3 is an important number in basketball spreads and i definitely wouldn't take anything over -3. It may be worth you buying down to -2 at odds of 1.76 on bet365 if you really wanted a bit of added security. A 2 point win would at least return your stake.

Thinking of throwing it on a double with south miss in the football for a small stake.

El Horseboxo

In play bet

Jets (-3.5) at Broncos @ 1.90

Stake 22

AstonMartin

Great research and reasoning behind your bet. Good luck.

El Horseboxo

Making a habit of this. Gonna buy outta the jets bet. Haven't been watching the game. Just flickin back and forth. Don't trust the jets to cover 4 points.

25 euro on broncos +3.5 @ 1.80

yesno1234

Wouldn't know much about the basketball myself just follow a few of your tips but jesus Arizona were 5/1 there with 4 mins left. A minute later and there 1/10. It's crazy the fluctuation in prices, it's probably not but I'm used to soccer so looks unbelievable, fair enough they were down by 5 points but that's nothing ffs. Hopefully they can hold on now.

Edit: FT 81-72 Cheers Mate. Nice Pick

El Horseboxo

yesno1234 wrote: »

Wouldn't know much about the basketball myself just follow a few of your tips but jesus Arizona were 5/1 there with 4 mins left. A minute later and there 1/10. It's crazy the fluctuation in prices, it's probably not but I'm used to soccer so looks unbelievable, fair enough they were down by 5 points but that's nothing ffs. Hopefully they can hold on now.

The odds were probably that when st john's were on a 16-4 run. If it's just a computer doing the odds they weren't factoring in rotation and foul trouble. In this case st. John's had no depth. Only 7 players so it was always likely Arizona would get back into it. Live betting on basketball can be very profitable. Especially if a favorite is down with less than 5 mins to go. More often than not they'll win.

They held on anyways. Was a bit nervous for a bit when zona had feck all points in the paint. Great outside shooting and lindsey fouling out for sju won it for them. Experience showed in the end too.

Derek!

Just checked my account to see I'm after bettin on the losin team by mistake
Nice win though, well done.

yesno1234

Derek! wrote: »

Just checked my account to see I'm after bettin on the losin team by mistake
Nice win though, well done.

Ha nothing worse, done it a few times myself. Ya never seem to back the wrong one and win as well.

Derek!

yesno1234 wrote: »

Ha nothing worse, done it a few times myself. Ya never seem to back the wrong one and win as well.

I know I absolutely hate it!
I got confused by the odds bein the same but thankfully I only had €20 on it.