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Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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    #992
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    NCAAB bet

    Long Beach State (+3.5) at San Diego State (Bwin & Ladbrokes. +3 elsewhere)

    This was a lean since yesterday and i took it at small stakes in the other thread. But the spread has moved in the direction i wanted it to and i jumped on it. Think they can win this game straight up. I'll get to reasoning in a while.

    Stake 165


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    #993
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play bet

    Wisconsin (-6.5) at Illinois @ 1.90

    Stake 22


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    #994
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    NCAAB bet

    Long Beach State (+3.5) at San Diego State (Bwin & Ladbrokes. +3 elsewhere)

    This was a lean since yesterday and i took it at small stakes in the other thread. But the spread has moved in the direction i wanted it to and i jumped on it. Think they can win this game straight up. I'll get to reasoning in a while.

    Stake 165

    Here's the reasoning for this bet.


    As said above this was a very strong lean but i couldn't go for it at 2. I think this is going to be a close game and comes right down to the final play. So it's a bit of a numbers game. Neither side should win by more than 3-5 points. So waiting for the 3.5 makes sense and i'm closer to the way i capped this game. If SDSU wins this game by more than 3 points it's because LBS embraced the let down spot. They had a good win against Pittsburgh as an underdog and sometimes than can be a classic letdown spot as they fail to be as good as their last game. Usually that's a rule i follow. Nobody is as good as their last game or as bad as their last game. But i don't think much of the SDSU offense. They are very thin at guard position and don't really have the depth to net much points off the bench. LBS are a high powered offense and i just don't think SDSU can keep up with them. And i capped this game by overvaluing SDSU a bit in this spot. And i still have LBS coming out in a narrow win. Even though it's a road game it's not that far. You're talking like a 3 hour drive from LA to San Diego.

    Another angle i'm looking at is fatigue. Here is SDSU's schedule so far.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/21/san-diego-state-aztecs

    As you can see this will be their 6th game in 9 days. 3 games in 3 days as the opener and 3 wins for them. All home games and just 1 game against a semi decent team. They then had a day to get to Texas to face Baylor which they lost. They had been leading but lost in the second half. That must have hurt them a bit as they then returned home a day later to play a bad USC team and only won by 2 points in the last 2 seconds despite being favored by 6. They've actually only covered the spread once so far and that was against a shít Southern Utah team. Teams with a lot of depth even struggle to play that volume of games. But when you are thin i expect each forth coming game to wear you down even more. Number 1 you aren't getting much rest both mentally and physically, number 2 you don't have much time to practice and number 3 your schedule is transparent. Teams will play with you to stretch the court knowing the previous 2 points. NBA teams might be able to handle that volume. But not college kids.

    All the above aside. LBS are a good team. They have 4 senior starters that have been together for the past 4 years. That chemistry and experience is a huge plus alone. Casper Ware, the PG is a great player and leader. Averaging 24 points and 5 assists a game. They are brilliant numbers. He is some player to watch and i can't see how his output will be limited tonight. Then you have Anderson who plays in a guard/forward position. He's averaging 6 assists a game. That is amazing for a non point guard. To find yourself open for that much assists really stretches a team. Because if they double up on one they leave the other guy open. It's a dual threat. Take the last game for example against Pittsburgh. They were the better team. They controlled the game and looked the better team in every department. I still can't believe that LBS had 24 assists against a number 9 ranked team. Anderson with 7 and Ware and Ennis with 6 a piece. That just highlights how efficient this team is and how difficult they can be to defend.

    On the San Diego side of the coin they have lost 4 starters. They were a good team last year and only lost 3 games. Which is part of the reason why i think they are being valued a bit higher than i think they should be. The 4 starters that graduated were their star players responsible for almost 65% of their offense. Most importantly they lost their point guard. That is probably one of the more difficult positions to introduce somebody new to a team into. And it has showed so far. I've been watching highlights of them all today. They aren't clicking yet.

    As touched on earlier this is a let down spot for Long Beach. Which i think is also a reason why LBS is the underdog. I just fail to see how SDSU is a better team. In college football tonight SDSU have a big home game against Boise. So i think that might take some of the home crowd away from the basketball. They'll have the rally and tailgate parties leading up to the football. Anyways home court or not. I really don't think LBS regress in this game. They are going into this on a high. And it's a high backed up with good players. I almost feel like putting another half unit on this. I've gone 6-0 so far and i feel a loss is coming. But i am extremely confident on this bet. If following this don't go nuts. Bet within your limit as games can always go wrong.


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    #995
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Fixed game loses and Wisconsin wins. Just as well i waited till in play. Was gonna take them at -14 but just as i clicked on it the spread moved to -14.5 so i left it.

    Balance 1951.91 (231 in play)


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    #996
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Half a point loss in the LBS game. If only they had of missed the free throws that tied it at the end of the game. Even missed one of them. They would have covered. Didn't feel good about it going to OT. Stupid fouling cost it. Ah well had a good run.


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    #997
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,250 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Half a point loss in the LBS game. If only they had of missed the free throws that tied it at the end of the game. Even missed one of them. They would have covered. Didn't feel good about it going to OT. Stupid fouling cost it. Ah well had a good run.

    It was very unlucky.LBS lead for 3/4 of the game aswell.

    Did you get to see it ?
    I did'nt but was watching a live text feed and people on it were saying it was rigged the ref favoured the other team alot ?.

    Still up a few quid following your write up's much appreciated .:)


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    #998
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    This isn't my pocket talking because I won a big bet in the same circumstances a few weeks ago, but they really should get rid of this rule of counting overtime in spread bets.

    Let's say someone backs an NFL team getting 6.5 points it finishes level, the person has comfortably called that game right. Yet they can still lose the bet if the opponents get a OT TD. Sane story tonight where u called the game right to the tune of 3 points yet still lost


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    #999
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Yeah OT counting towards the spread can be a killer. OT only really ever helps you if you are on overs on a total bet.

    Yeah i got to see it. A mate in the San Diego was streaming it for me from his tv. Some of the officiating in it was a joke. Especially the foul that lead to the 2 points that ruined the bet. They really favored the home team. Even the commentators were saying some of the decisions were overtly wrong. Sometimes it works for you and sometimes against you.


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    #1000
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭ [Deleted User]


    In fairness though. Andy luck pulled me out a serious hole a couple of weeks back with the 3rd ot to win by more than 7.


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    #1001
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Yeah the OT can help you out at times. Don't think it's ever worked on a spread bet for me. But it has helped with a few overs bets. Especially in basketball and college football. The NFL not so much as mostly it's just 3 extra points in OT.

    Down on the day yesterday but well up on the week.

    Balance 2014.61


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    #1002
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Need help - saw a play by one member of group we talked about for NW -2. Question is what the hell is NW???


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    #1003
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    NW is Northwestern. They play at home against Seton Hall.


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    #1004
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    NW is Northwestern. They play at home against Seton Hall.
    Thanks. It was my first guess, but I couldn't find them playing. Found them know, but line is -3.5. Will have to think over it.


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    #1005
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Gonna have a punt at an obvious bet. Can see Tampa turning the ball over a bit which contributed to their loss against Houston. Packers have just been destroying teams and are a covering machine.

    Bucs at Packers (-13.5) @ 1.90

    Stake 33


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    #1006
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Cowboys (-7) at Redskins @ 1.90

    Stake 33


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    #1007
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Too late with both this bets :mad:


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    #1008
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Hey. I have a 20 free bet have you any tips on a double on the basketball or later NFL games that be a good double. Cheers.


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    #1009
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I suck at NFL. Won with both the Cowboys and Packers last week. But both fail to cover today. Unless the Cowboys can win in OT with a TD.

    Sorry criticeyes if i put money on anything it's just a lean. My strongest lean would be for Alabama to beat Purdue. But the line has jumped too high now. So i left it.

    In the NFL i like the 49ers and Atlanta to both cover the spreads. But as mentioned above. The NFL has been a minefield this year and i can't get anything going in it.


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    #1010
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Would -2 be a good spread for alabamA?


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    #1011
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,250 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    I suck at NFL. Won with both the Cowboys and Packers last week. But both fail to cover today. Unless the Cowboys can win in OT with a TD.
    .

    Do they take the 1 point coverversion in OT if a touchdown is scored?:confused:
    Sorry Im not very up on all the rules.

    Did -7 myself and taught the bet was gone.


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    #1012
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Ideally i was looking for the -1 line that it opened up at. I see it's back down to -2.5 now. But if i could get it at -2 i'd consider it. It has the potential to be a close game and could come down to the last seconds. I'd feel safer with -1 or -1.5 than -2. But at least if they won by just 2 points you wouldn't be losing money. It would be a push.


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    #1013
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Missed the -4 opening line on Memphis. It's at -6.5 now. Would have been a big play. Might do a write up and hover over in play if it's available. Or take a higher line at lower stakes. Thought it would have opened around -6 or -7.


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    #1014
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Missed the -4 opening line on Memphis. It's at -6.5 now. Would have been a big play. Might do a write up and hover over in play if it's available. Or take a higher line at lower stakes. Thought it would have opened around -6 or -7.
    I will try to get this in Play, just like with Oregon State (currently +7, started +9). But yesterday I didn't find a right spot backing Alabama and Northwestern, and in the end both this teams win rather comfortably. So maybe I just should go for Memphis (-6) and Oregon St (+7). Also Detroit (-5) would be a good line, but now it's -7.5.


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    #1015
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I haven't really looked into much other games. The Memphis one was a game i had circled from before the season started. The Detroit line has now value at the current -7.5. Although i haven't studied it in depth. I was leaning towards the overs in that game. George Washington has had all week to prepare for this game and they take a mental amount of shots. Averaged close to 60 a game last year and so far they started off the same pattern. It's a neutral venue too so you never know how much that will be a factor. 7.5 points is a fair amount to cover. Don't really know anything about the Oregon game. Haven't looked at it. Waiting for in play for the Memphis game might work out. I do feel comfortable taking the -6 for maybe half a unit. (55e). But i'd prefer the -4 and -3.5 would be great. So i'll be hoping Michigan can keep up early before all value is lost.


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    #1016
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Some of games won't be available at bet365 In Play, so I already took Texas (-2.5) and now considering Detroit (-6.5) and Oregon State (+7). Also took Umass (PK) and Winthrop (+7). Will wait for Memphis game In Play. Faworyci piłkarscy:

    Edit: I really need to get better when looking/hoping for better line, Texas now is -2 and also Siena is +7, I took it +6.5.


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    #1017
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I use the following methods. I'll check the first site listed. It tells you what the line opened at. For example look at the Michigan-Memphis game. It says 4 under opener. Then follow the line across and you can see 5.5 and 6 etc listed by different popular American bookies. The different colors correspond to how recent the line movement was. It tells you just above what each color means.

    http://www.madduxsports.com/college-basketball-lines.php

    Or i check here.

    http://www.bookmaker.eu/sportsbook.aspx

    The above site is usually the first site that will open with spreads on American sports. So if you check there and you see different lines than you are getting on European sites. Just hold off for a bit. As bookmakers line will usually drop or increase before European ones.

    Then off course use odds checker to find the best spread on european sites.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/


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    #1018
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Memphis is already down to -5 on Bet365. It's currently -4.5 on Stan James. Must be a lot of money coming in on Michigan. I reckon people think Memphis are overvalued in this spot due to their win over Belmont. But i capped this game before then and i don't think the Belmont win will be that much of a factor. If it drops to -4.5 on Bet365 i might take -4 for lower odds. Bet365 seems to be the only site that i can see offers alternative spreads.


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    #1019
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Michigan at Memphis (-4.5) @ 1.90 (Neutral venue - Hawaii)

    Late write up as i wasn't going to take this beforehand and just wait till in play. But i've a feeling i won't get a lower line in this game.

    I'll start with Michigan. I'll be blunt. They are overrated. They were decent last year thanks to their stud. Darius Morris. He went off to the Lakers. And with that he took a huge chunk of Michigan's offense. Looking the games they've played so far speaks volumes. They have played really bad teams but yet they put up feck all points and didn't look impressive in the footage i was looking at. To struggle to put up D2 points is crazy. They are like exhibition games against a bunch of scrubs where you run up the score. 47 points against Wayne State is a complete joke. I don't know if that figure is worse of the 47 they allowed them to put up. Same with WIU. 59 points. They are a bit thin and i don't see how they up their game against a better team. I know some teams can play up to teams but for them to pull that out of their ass in one game would be quite a feat.

    I mentioned Memphis being overvalued earlier. Well they are slightly. Mainly due to their huge win by 16 points over Belmont. This is a team that Duke only beat by a point. And in that game they were only 3 shy of 100 points. That's unbelievable offense. They return a lot of high scoring players and seniors and have a freshman that has been hyped as a future star player in Thomas.

    The write up is a little short as the game is about to start. But i think this could be a double digit win the more i think about it.

    Stake 165


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    #1020
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Added 55 euro to the above bet at -1.5 in play.

    So

    Memphis - 4.5 (165) @ 1.90
    Memphis -1.5 (55) @ 1.95


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    #1021
    Onecoolcookie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,120 ✭✭✭Onecoolcookie


    Managed to get a hundred down on Memphis at evens after they were a few points down early, really fancy them to win this aswell and they're coming back into it nicely now


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