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Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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    #1022
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Michigan started very fast paced which isn't their style. So don't know how they keep that up. They also went 7/8 on their first 8 shots. That's also a shooting percentage that has to regress. Memphis are slow starters at times so i once they get the lead i can't see them letting it slip too much again. If all goes according to plan that is.


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    #1023
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    Just had a look at the score there, still confident?


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    #1024
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Not confident at all now.

    Sorry to anyone that followed. Michigan just shot lights out. Something like 74% shooting from the 2 and got a 3 game going that they hadn't previously done against shít teams. Gotta take the wins with the losses unfortunately. Still hope to have a good season overall.


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    #1025
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    In horseboxo we trust!

    Ah well we will make it back. I know you were saying you not having the greatest in NFL at the mo but any advice on Patriots tonight? Im sure they could cover the handicap of -17. Have around 40 on them at the mo and might throw another 20/30 on them. Im trying to see if there is any more basketball on tonight but im not sure if there is. Is there any more Basketball on tonight worth a punt? Cheers mate.


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    #1026
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Sorry just seeing this now. The only other game i was interested in tonight was Missouri -4. And they blew Notre Dame out. I was on the wrong team. Was really a flip of a coin who i went with.

    Since the Patriots are down 3 and you can get a better line i suppose this is still relevant. I'm watching the game but they have been playing brutal. The Patriots OL isn't offering any protection at all and with Palko under center they are gonna run the ball a lot. That will tire the Patriots D out. NE really need to start protecting Brady. Without that protection they'll struggle to take a lead and force KC to throw the ball. It's currently -10.5. I'd consider small stakes to cover that.


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    #1027
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Sorry just seeing this now. The only other game i was interested in tonight was Missouri -4. And they blew Notre Dame out. I was on the wrong team. Was really a flip of a coin who i went with.
    If you don't mind, some of us would be interested in reading about your leans as well ;). You being high on Missouri would be a valuable intel.

    Btw, did you see what Texas did? They were up eighteen with 12 minutes to go and NC State had a run 28:2. Crazy even for NCAAB standards :mad:


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    #1028
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Yeah no bother. I'll do short write ups for any leans i have when i get the chance. Didn't see the Texas game but read about it. That's a crazy run for college or otherwise. Texas would of had about 12+ possessions and could only score 1. Bar your main players fouling out i never understand how teams can go so bad at what seems like the flick of a switch. People always cry fix when shít like that happens.


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    #1029
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Debating taking another stand at Memphis tonight. Currently -3.5. Opened at -2.5. Think i'll wait till in play. Tennessee played above their norm in their last game while Memphis played well below theirs and just looked defenseless in the second half. Classic situation of a one team being overvalued while the better team is being undervalued. How can Memphis be 4 point favorites against a ranked Michigan team and then only 2.5 favorites against unranked Tennessee? I like to believe that no team plays as good as their last game or as bad as their last game. If i stick by this belief Memphis should show up.


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    #1030
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Also leaning Michigan +7. They looked very impressive last night despite the slow start against the poor teams. They look a team that can up their pace and play to the team. My worry is that they don't reproduce last nights performance. But i'm looking at how close Belmont played Duke. Only losing by a point. And then Memphis beat Belmont off the court. And last like Michigan wiped out Memphis. Just following the logic that this game shouldn't be easy for Duke and they could even lose. Duke are a bit overrated anyways.


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    #1031
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    I was a fan of coach Beilein when he was with West Virginia, it's not a surprise he's doing well at Michigan. And Duke being overrated sounds very probable, as it's aften the case with so called big teams.


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    #1032
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Gonna take this. The more i think of it the more i like it.

    Memphis (-3.5) at Tennessee @ 1.90

    Write up to follow. Briefly touched on it above.

    Stake 165


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    #1033
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Gonna take this. The more i think of it the more i like it.

    Memphis (-3.5) at Tennessee @ 1.90

    Write up to follow. Briefly touched on it above.

    Stake 165

    Memphis -4.5 now....worth it?


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    #1034
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    slookie wrote: »
    Memphis -4.5 now....worth it?

    If it was looking at it at -4.5 i don't honestly don't think i would take it. Memphis like to run and shoot from outside. But if they can't get their 3 point game going and their pressure defense puts them in foul trouble. This could be a close game to the end. I wouldn't feel comfortable taking them to beat 2 buckets. I'd wait till in play if i was you. Memphis looked slow to start yesterday and against Tennessee you may even get a better line than i got.

    Can't see a stream for the game though.

    Could be on here

    http://www.firstrowsports.tv/watch/93729/1/watch-%288%29-memphis-vs-tennessee.html


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    #1035
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/19385/1/memphis-vs-tennessee-live-stream-online.html


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    #1036
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    Waited till in play and hopped on....

    61292922.jpg


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    #1037
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Nice. Memphis on a great run now. Hopefully they keep on scoring and don't go into clock management mode too early in the second if they maintain a big lead. Thought they were fúcked with the stupid foul trouble they were in putting Tenny in the double bonus early.


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    #1038
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    Are you still feeling confident? Kinda keeping the gap at 7-8 the whole time.


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    #1039
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Need them to stop giving up stupid fouls down low. Just right now for example. No need for Simpson to tug on the jersey. Really undisciplined from Memphis. But if they can keep the lead in the 6-7 point range Tennessee will foul and send them to the line. They've been shooting good so that should help with covering the spread. Just hope they don't lose concentration now.


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    #1040
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Jesus fúck. Memphis falling apart. 2 air balls and a stupid miss. Now a turn over and foul.


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    #1041
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    If it finishes level, does the bet carry into ot?


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    #1042
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Yeah. Your bet ain't done till there is an actual winner of the game. OT better not fúck me over again. 5 mins to make this right Memphis. 16 points they were up at one stage. It's the offensive rebounds that are killing them. They have 4 versus Tennessee's 16. Tennessee has scored off 12 of them. Stupid fouling too.


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    #1043
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    So just one 5 minute period?


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    #1044
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Yeah but i think these fúck heads would need 50 OT's before the could win by 4 points. The bet is done for me anyways. Best thing could hope for now is a 2nd OT.


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    #1045
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    Ot again!!


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    #1046
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    They'd probably play 3 OT's and then rule it a tie game. But because this is an invitational there would have to be a winner. So not sure what they'd do. Maybe 3 possessions each or something.


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    #1047
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Double OT. Extremely lucky this bet is still alive.


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    #1048
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Cúnts. Why they take a jumper and not drive after taking the time out is beyond me. Should of at least got to the line to try take a 4 point lead. 3 big losers in a row. When it rains it pours.


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    #1049
    slookie
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭slookie


    Ya was a sickener alright. Lost 1/4 of my bank yesterday between this, and a load of soccer bets. Not to worry...onwards and upwards. Very unpredictable night anyway.


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    #1050
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    A few bad beats to hit the balance lately. All the higher stake ones. Typical. Just going to flat bet for the next few games. Hopefully get back over the 2k mark. Just 100 euro bets. I'll list how confident i am anyways for those that wanna decide their stakes.

    Kansas at Duke (-4) @ 1.90

    This line is probably going to rise. I took it bout an hour ago on my phone.

    Anyways for me this comes down to who can score and who can't. Duke have 5 players that average double digits while Kansas has 2. Yes i think Duke are a bit overrated but in a spot like this against a ranked opponent i think they get up for it. Usually teams playing against an unranked opponent can come in with an air of we already won this game and that can affect play. But when you look at the stats for the 6-0 run Duke find themselves in right now they are very impressive. Some of the shooting %'s the are hitting are unreal. Seth Curry is 55% from the floor and 59% from outside. Plumlee is hitting 67% while Doc Rivers son, Austin is hitting 53%. Combined that is just big time shooters from all over the court. They have the bigs for the offensive and defensive rebounds and are really good down low. Kelly, their main height is also a great shooter and is a big threat outside hitting almost 55% from 3 land. If Kansas try mark him with their big on a man to man they are gonna leave themselves exposed on the inside. I expect that is what happened because you can't leave Kelly open. Couple all the above with a strong bench and a really good tactical coach and you have a team that is very capable of winning this game by 6-7 points.

    Kansas on the other hand who are a good team for what they are must be dreading this game. They know if they don't get it right they will lose big. The main thing i'm looking at is the 4 starts that have gone between seasons. With it they took a big chunk of their points and athleticism. Kansas just don't look too athletic in the games so far and that is another area they will struggle against Duke. Kansas have looked to exhibit a lot of the factors you expect from a good team integrating new players into it's programme. They have looked sloppy giving away stupid fouls and taking erratic shots. So far they have managed to not be affected by it too much. But they were against Kentucky and Georgetown came close. It took the dying seconds to beat GT by 4. I expect Duke to play similarly to Kentucky against Kansas and capitalize on some of the freshmen mistakes. Kansas will have a tough time against the Duke defense and they struggle to put up points against teams that force them to try jumpers rather than driving to the basket.

    I put this game at a 6-7 point win for Duke and with 2-3 to spare i'm going to go with what should be a public enough bet. Hopefully back to winning ways tonight.

    Stake 100

    Balance 1463.61 (100 in play)


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    #1051
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Wow!! That my friend was close. Thanks for the tip. Good to see you back to winning ways. Didn't think they were going to do it in the 1st half. And then Kansas missing that 3 pointer with a few seconds to go. Phew! Great shout! Thanks


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