Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

MikeyGorse

Nice to see you back to winning ways,had a piece of this

El Horseboxo

Yeah was good to get back on a win. Hopefully it's a streak. College basketball can be very streaky. Just need to hit the positive streak when you fancy games for bigger units. The missed 3 was lucky alright. But the 3 from Thornton with 20 seconds left was amazing. Off balance and still knocks it down. Curry traveled too so was lucky to get away with that. I'll take the win however though.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:7276244


Gonna start playing some of the leans i like with the balance in here too. All flat bets at 22 euro. Some day's i might have 2 or 3 while others i have none. Won't be putting big write ups for them but if you have any questions just ask.


Balance 1653.61



Today i have strong leans for the following. Not enough to make them big unit bets though. All of them are neutral ground in the 76 classic in Anaheim.


Washington State vs Oklahoma (Over 146) @ 1.90

Stake 22

Boston College vs St. Louis (Under 124) @ 1.90

Stake 22

New Mexico (-7.5) vs Santa Clara @ 1.90

Stake 22

stingerro

Good to see you publishing more leans, it will help me testing my "In Play" tactic. Last night I would cash on Duke (+1.5) and Syracuse (-2.5), as well as Flyers vs Islanders (under7.5 goals after two quickly goals). Of course when I will bet some real money I don't expect such a good results

El Horseboxo

No problem. I might start doing that with some of the leans i'm on. Wait till in play and see how the game is going. There's so many games and you don't get the time to research them all so getting a read on a live game you had a lean on could be a good tactic.

I haven't played these but i'd be leaning on

College of Charleston (-2)
NC Asheville (+13)

El Horseboxo

In play

Packers (-4.5) at Lions @ evens

Stake 30

slookie

Excuse my ignorance, but what is a lean??

keane2097

slookie wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance, but what is a lean??

An inkling towards one side or other, not fully fleshed out by in depth analysis.

El Horseboxo

keane2097 wrote: »

An inkling towards one side or other, not fully fleshed out by in depth analysis.

Exactly as Keane said. You know those bets that you were considering and then they win and you say to yourself why didn't i just go for it. That was a lean my friend. They don't all win though unfortunately

El Horseboxo

The Boston vs St. Louis game goes under finishing at 113 and the Packers decide to turn up in the second half after the Lions done their best to lose.

Adding

Dolphins at Cowboys (-7) @ 1.95

Stake 21


Balance 1638.61 (65 in play)

stingerro

Anything you like tonight?

El Horseboxo

Ah i never got a chance to be on. Liked both Houston and LSU to cover their spreads and of course they did. Also liked West Virginia against Pittsburgh. Was -6.5 but they are down 7 now. It's -2.5.

Never really looked at the basketball card today. Was busy with work for most of the day.

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Ah i never got a chance to be on. Liked both Houston and LSU to cover their spreads and of course they did. Also liked West Virginia against Pittsburgh. Was -6.5 but they are down 7 now. It's -2.5.

Never really looked at the basketball card today. Was busy with work for most of the day.

Damm it, I regret not playing Houston then, as I saw that Cam_Newton also liked it.

Missed some good opportunities today, especially Dayton. But I was able to take Syracuse -1.5 In Play and once again they were a better team in crunch time, despite the fact that Stanford had a lead for majority of the match. Faworyci piłkarscy:

Pittsburgh just had a 2nd TD and WV is +3.5. Worth a try?

Also one more football game, do you like USC to cover vs UCLA (it's -16 now)?

El Horseboxo

In play

Pitt at West Virginia (+6.5) @ 1.90

Stake 22

onekillmagill

El Horseboxo

onekillmagill wrote: »

Yeah big time. I was hoping they'd lose by a field goal at the end there so I'd still cover and they wouldn't win. Some horrible decisions on 2nd down and short where they looked to pass but lost yards.

onekillmagill

Jumped on w.virginia to win when they were 6 points down. Watching the game just gave me the sense that they were going to scrape it. Awesome defense helped them win that one

stingerro

El Horseboxo wrote: »

In play

Pitt at West Virginia (+6.5) @ 1.90

Stake 22

Good call. You posted it a few seconds after I've asked if +3.5 is good enough, didn't expect 2nd TD to happen so early for Pittburgh.

What do you think of these:

UCLA at USC (-16)
Penn State at Wisconsin (-14.5)
Virginia Tech (-5.5) at Virginia
Alabama (-21) at Auburn
Michigan State (-6) at Northwestern

Just need a short note what looks decent. Thanks.

El Horseboxo

I had posted from my phone so didn't actually see your post before i stuck up the WVU bet.

I preferred the line when it was -14.5 as i could have bought down to -14 without losing too much. I'm thinking USC can win by 3 TD's. UCLA have looked pretty bad in their last few road games. And USC have the better QB by miles.

I think Wisconsin can drop close to or over 40 points against Penn State. On their own turf and in a spot where they should feel they'll have to run up the score. Their defense should be able to handle Penn State and if they can force them to throw it should benefit them. I'm not overly confident given the way Wisconsin have played as of late. But it would be a strong lean that they win by about 17-20 points.

The 2 Virginia's. Not really sure what to make of this rivalry game. VT aren't giving up too many points. I think VT are a bit overrated but i reckon they can sneak the cover. Not a spot i overly like as it's also the final home game for Virginia. Could be a tight one.

I'm not mad about the Alabama offense as they are unpredictable as to when they are going to play to their full potential at times. They can be slow in building drives and eat into the clock. But today they kinda need to make a statement. So i feel they need to try score as often as they can and make the win look extremely convincing. Auburn haven't looked good against top ranked teams have and have fell off the wagon a bit lately.

As for the last game it's pretty meaningless for MSU and they might be looking ahead in their schedule. Not playing for their home crowd either. I wouldn't be confident enough to bet on them to cover in this spot. Northwestern can be very stubborn.

El Horseboxo

This is just a lean.

Tulsa (+7) at Missouri State @ 1.90

I quite surprised that the line is that high. And it's been rising. This is a game i think Tulsa can win outright if they play to their advantage. Which to me is their height and rebound ability. They control the glass and make it very difficult to their opponents offense to get a clean shot. Looking at MSU's schedule so far they don't seem to have faced a side with the capabilities of Tulsa. So with the match up problems i see this game being a lot closer than 7 points and a possible upset. Tulsa play slow and build up the play. They have the better guards in my opinion and should be able to control the tempo. Probably looking at a low enough scoring game. The only thing keeping this from being a bigger play is the fact that MSU have had a good number of days to prepare for this. So i'm not sure how they come out. They have looked like over performing so far. So whether that continues is a factor i'm not willing to guess at.

Stake 22

CriticEyes

I have no clue about college basketball but does North Carolina (1) V non ranked UNLV represent value -7.5 @ 10/11? cheers

any thoughts on Stanford in the football?

El Horseboxo

Long Beach State (-3) at Montana @ 1.90 (VC)

Don't have time for a write up. Was waiting for the line to fall all day. And just noticed it did. Basically i think LBS are a better team. They took a very good San Diego State to overtime and pushed them close. They have the better shooters and are more athletic. They also rebound more. I just think they cover the 3 points in this spot.

Stake 100

El Horseboxo

CriticEyes wrote: »

I have no clue about college basketball but does North Carolina (1) V non ranked UNLV represent value -7.5 @ 10/11? cheers

any thoughts on Stanford in the football?

I haven't really looked at that game. UNLV are playing on their own turf basically despite it being a tourney. They play strong defense and can run teams close. North Carolina looked a bit tired last night and only got going at the end. So i don't know how they come out tonight. They should win the game but whether the cover the 7.5 is something i don't really have too much of an opinion on. Any other circumstance i would but they are in a spot where they could play it close. Granted they are capable of beating them by 14.

Obviously the stanford game has started now. At home i'd have fancied them to cover the spread. But it's not something i looked into. Didn't really look into any football at all. Been busy with work so had limited time.

CriticEyes

El Horseboxo wrote: »

This is just a lean.

Tulsa (+7) at Missouri State @ 1.90

I quite surprised that the line is that high. And it's been rising. This is a game i think Tulsa can win outright if they play to their advantage. Which to me is their height and rebound ability. They control the glass and make it very difficult to their opponents offense to get a clean shot. Looking at MSU's schedule so far they don't seem to have faced a side with the capabilities of Tulsa. So with the match up problems i see this game being a lot closer than 7 points and a possible upset. Tulsa play slow and build up the play. They have the better guards in my opinion and should be able to control the tempo. Probably looking at a low enough scoring game. The only thing keeping this from being a bigger play is the fact that MSU have had a good number of days to prepare for this. So i'm not sure how they come out. They have looked like over performing so far. So whether that continues is a factor i'm not willing to guess at.

Stake 22

Great shout cheers

stingerro

Thanks for info on yesterday NCAAF matches. Cashed on Wisconsin and USC.

El Horseboxo

I shoulda probably looked at the football more this week. A lot of the favorites covered their spreads. Great singles and double action missed out on.

As for that Long Beach State game. Makes you really lean towards games being fixed. Although it could be just the pressure of young lads having to live up to high expectations. Up by 11 points with a few minutes left. Then begin fouling like crazy. Missing easy shots. Then they go to the line twice in a row and miss 4 straight free throws. Casper Ware. A 80 odd % shooter from the line misses 4 in a row. One of them an air ball. Doesn't even touch the rim or board. Then a turn over which could of tied the game and it looked like a blatant release of the ball.

Gonna just have to start looking for more value spots. Teams that have been rebounding good and getting points have been cleaning up. Must start looking more in that direction.

stingerro

Not sure if you will be around tonight, but have a question - Tennessee vs Oakland match. Tennessee looked solid so far and line started at -4. Majority of tipsters I show you really liked that line and few more hours it's... -1.5 . Any ideas???

El Horseboxo

stingerro wrote: »

Not sure if you will be around tonight, but have a question - Tennessee vs Oakland match. Tennessee looked solid so far and line started at -4. Majority of tipsters I show you really liked that line and few more hours it's... -1.5 . Any ideas???

I don't want to put you off it if it's a game that you have read more about than me. But looking at the spot Tennessee are in and i don't like it. A long trip back from Hawaii and may be looking towards a tough game against Pittsburgh at home. Could finish a close game or even an Oakland win.

You sure it opened at -4? I'm seeing the opener at -1. Looks like it went up to -4 as it was a big public bet. Despite 86% of Vegas bets coming in on Tennessee the line moved the other way. Never a good sign. Means a lot of huge money from sharp bets is coming in on Oakland.

http://pregame.com/p/sportsbook-spy.aspx?sport=cbb

It's a small line and Tennessee are the better team currently. So don't let me change your mind. It could be a winner. It's not a game i like though. If i had a lean it would probably be the under. Mainly cause the last game went way over and a lot of the public are on the over this time. I've a feeling Oakland don't run the ball as much tonight.

stingerro

You know I wouldn't ask you if I wouldn't value your opinion, so thanks for your opinion. I will now stay away from this match and won't hold any grudge when Tennessee will win by 20 . I will also have a decent sleep. I had a good winner tonight with Basketball match... from Brazil (no joke), so it's ok.

Edit: Now line it's at -1, crazy, crazy stuff.

El Horseboxo

The above was just a quick look but i don't like reverse line movement. It's always worked against me when i bet with the public. Hopefully my work stuff finishes up this week so i can get back to devoting more time to researching games. Anyways queue Tennessee blowing Oakland out haha.

stingerro

79:71 for Oakland . You helped saved me some money, thanks.