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Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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    #1082
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    I like today Michigan +3 at Virginia and St. Louis -9 at Loyola Marymnt. If I could get slightly better line In Play, I will probably take it. Any opinion?


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    #1083
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I'll have a look at them in a little bit. Just looking into the Duke at Ohio State game. Duke +7.5 kinda interests me now. That's a lot of points for OSU to cover.


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    #1084
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    stingerro wrote: »
    I like today Michigan +3 at Virginia and St. Louis -9 at Loyola Marymnt. If I could get slightly better line In Play, I will probably take it. Any opinion?


    Virginia will be the first tough defensive team that Michigan will face. Virginia are good inside the paint and are good at defending the 3 ball. However i don't rate their offense too much. This will be Michigan's first true road test too as they return from Hawaii. Usually after a 3 game invitational tourney a team tends to under perform as the trip took a bit out of them. And that's even more true on the road. So it's a tough spot for Michigan. Virginia are back from the Virgin Islands so that complicates things a bit. It's a big game for Virginia though as a win over Michigan will greatly improve the power rating of the ACC.

    I think it will be a close game and low scoring. I'm kinda leaning more towards the under in this one rather than taking a side. Reckon there will be a good few possessions that will result in nothing. But i think there is a risk of overtime.



    As for the St. Louis game i don't really like the spot they are in. They were in Anaheim for the tournament out there and done well. They even moved up to be a ranked team. Loyola Marymount is in LA so they didn't have to travel anywhere. So that's not too much of a worry. But they did play a lot of games in a short space of time so could be a bit tired. It's also one of those letdown spots. They do well, get ranked, everyone jumps on them (80% public) and then they don't cover. Don't think there's any question of them winning. St. Louis should cover this as Loy Mary are missing Ashley Hamilton. But as i said it's a letdown spot. So don't go too big.


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    #1085
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play bet

    Northwestern at Georgia Tech (+1.5) @ evens

    Couldn't have been luckier with getting that line. NWU go 6-0 and GT turns it over.

    Stake 30


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    #1086
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,250 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Hi dont suppose u have a lean for anything in the lllinios v Maryland game ?

    Off tomorrow and was gona stay up and watch it.


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    #1087
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    robbie1977 wrote: »
    Hi dont suppose u have a lean for anything in the lllinios v Maryland game ?

    Off tomorrow and was gona stay up and watch it.

    I won't be having anything on the game and it's only a slight lean. But i think the value is on Maryland. I think they are a better team currently. But they haven't really got their offense going this year. Neither have Illinois though. But they play solid defense. It's Illinois's first road game of the season and they way they've been shooting has made the -4.5 a bit of a surprise. They have gone 5, 6 and even 7 minutes without a score in some games. But as i said they play very strong on defense and have the ability to shoot teams down for 5 minutes so their ineffectiveness on offense doesn't harm them too much. I'd probably lean the under more if i had to place a bet on the game. It's too unpredictable the way both teams are playing to pick a side.


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    #1088
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    In play bet

    Northwestern at Georgia Tech (+1.5) @ evens

    Couldn't have been luckier with getting that line. NWU go 6-0 and GT turns it over.

    Stake 30

    Ha maybe not so lucky. GT down 13 points at the moment and can get +6.5. Playing absolute shíte now.


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    #1089
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo - you gave me some good advices, later read some similar stuff on various boards, especially regarding not backing short priced favourites on the road. Still had a horrible night though :mad:


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    #1090
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I need to start heeding the advice i'm giving out. Haha. I'd be winning bets if i did. That Georgia Tech bet last night was ridiculous. They played shít. Although i did stay away from Duke. Knew they couldn't handle Sullinger.

    Yeah Stingerro you really need to look at the spots and situations teams are in rather than ranking and previous wins. Also look where the money is going and line movement. I stuck up 2 sites for that a page or two back. Basketball, especially college basketball isn't like soccer where most of the time a short priced good team will win. Anybody can beat anybody to an extent. More commonly any team can trade buckets with any team if the situation is right. Always look at how many games they've played in the last few days, how many points they gave up, injuries, and how defensive their next opponents are. Rebounds are important too. If a crap team has height they can dominate the boards and keep a game within the spread despite their shooting because they will get more second chance shots and possibly more shooting attempts in the game.


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    #1091
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Going with a few small bets.

    Drexel (+4.5) at St. Joseph's @ 1.90

    Pittsburgh vs Duquesne (+6) @ 1.90

    NC Willmington (+1.5) at Toledo @ 1.90

    Indiana at NC State @ 1.90

    Florida Atlantic (+20) at Kansas @ 1.90

    Drake at Boise St (-6) @ 1.90

    Creighton (+2.5) at San Diego St @ 1.90

    Sacramento St (+13) at Cal Poly Slo @ 1.90


    stake 11 (On each one)


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    #1092
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Anything that stands our from this list? Or it's not coicidence that stake is flat?


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    #1093
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    They are all just kind of leans and going against favorites in spots that i don't really like. So yeah that's why they are all flat stakes. If i had to pick 2 or 3 that i liked the most i'd say Drexel +4.5, Sacramento State +13 and Duquense + 6. But they are all just leans and said i'd put money on them rather than let them go. So if taking them don't go too big.


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    #1094
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    Would I be correct in saying all of them have been wrong thus far??

    Just checking, law of averages means you have to have got one or two right ;) I may still get on the later games


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    #1095
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    kryogen wrote: »
    Would I be correct in saying all of them have been wrong thus far??

    Just checking, law of averages means you have to have got one or two right ;) I may still get on the later games

    Was a bad day for underdogs covering. Liked the spots they were in but they favorites came out to play. Having a lot of bad luck lately in the bets in play.


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    #1096
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Was a bad day for underdogs covering. Liked the spots they were in but they favorites came out to play. Having a lot of bad luck lately in the bets in play.

    I wasnt being critical mate

    Tough luck on the day, your leans are usually good from what I have seen anytime I have checked the thread


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    #1097
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Ah i know ya weren't being critical. You just seen 4 from 7 or whatever at the time had lost so you figured i had to get at least 1 or 2 right. So hope ya got on the remaining 3 as they had 2 winners.


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    #1098
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Anything you like tonight? Just read that tonight's card looks quite tough. The best looking play seems to be Siena +5.5.


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    #1099
    kryogen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 25,953 ✭✭✭✭kryogen


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Ah i know ya weren't being critical. You just seen 4 from 7 or whatever at the time had lost so you figured i had to get at least 1 or 2 right. So hope ya got on the remaining 3 as they had 2 winners.


    I had 1 of them ok :)


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    #1100
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    stingerro wrote: »
    Anything you like tonight?

    Not really anything sticking out. I've a slight lean to Alabama -7 and also the under 133 in that game. The St. John's and Kentucky line is now -24. I kind of fancy St. John's to stay within that. Only basis for that is that UK might rotate because their next game is against UNC. Midd Tenn St -4.5 looks decent. Siena/St. Peters under 121 and Florida Intl at Georgia State over 135.5.

    I'll probably lay off tonight. Haven't had much of a chance to look into games. Just using info off the top of my head having looked at the card.


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    #1101
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    El Horseboxo wrote: »
    Not really anything sticking out. I've a slight lean to Alabama -7 and also the under 133 in that game. The St. John's and Kentucky line is now -24. I kind of fancy St. John's to stay within that. Only basis for that is that UK might rotate because their next game is against UNC. Midd Tenn St -4.5 looks decent. Siena/St. Peters under 121 and Florida Intl at Georgia State over 135.5.

    I'll probably lay off tonight. Haven't had much of a chance to look into games. Just using info off the top of my head having looked at the card.
    That;s what I am doing as well. Based on what I read the closest I was to make a bet was Siena +5.5 (No In Play to get additional handicap points though) at St.Peters. St.John's also looked decent, even not knowing that Kentucky's next game is against UNC.


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    #1102
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In play bet

    Milwaukee at DePaul (+5.5) @ 1.90

    Stake 33


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    #1103
    CriticEyes
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Anything you fancy in the basketball later?


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    #1104
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    Sorry haven't been gambling. Was on a bit of losing streak and was swamped with work so never got the chance to research many games. Ohio State travel to Kansas tonight. Game is on at 8:30 here. Ohio State is possibly without perhaps the best college player in the country. Sallinger. Gonna be a huge test for them on the road. Line has moved to pick now but i'll be watching it in play to see his involvement. He was ruled out but now there's stories of him playing. I think Kansas can win this outright if he doesn't feature much.


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    #1105
    El Horseboxo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    NCAAF starts back tonight and NFL is back from next week. So with that i'll try post up any bets or leans i have in both sports when i get the chance.

    Haven't done any gambling since the college basketball in which my season was stopped short due to a change of jobs and relocation to the US. Working with the Government and was on probation so couldn't afford to mess up and show any proof of gambling. Thanks to bookmaker.eu and help from some of the guys in the department i know how to do everything above board. So here's hoping for a successful season. And a bit of craic along the way regardless.


    Gonna start with a bank roll of $1000. (Will be easier for me using dollars as i'm not keeping up to date with exchange rates)


    Boise St at Michigan St (-7) @ 1.91

    Completely changed Boise team from last year on both O and D. Too many big name players for them are gone including Kellen Moore, their star QB. I honestly don't know much about their new crop of players but what i do know is how good Michigan's defense still is. I'm more so expecting Michigan to cover this spread by keeping Boise out rather than them blowing Boise outta the water on offense. Too much experience lies with Michigan on their own turf.

    Stake 30


    South Carolina (-6) at Vanderbilt @ 1.91

    Anything over a TD and i wouldn't be comfortable. But SC have owned the head to heads and they are a very solid road team historically. Superior D, more options on offense. Lattimore is said to be healthy although an acl injury is always difficult to come back from. Vandy have a load of starters coming back which is a slight concern. But i expect SC to keep it to around 10 points.

    Stake 30

    Going forward i won't be able to put up big detailed explanations as i had previously. Often i'll be posting from a phone or when i've some downtime.


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    #1106
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Great to see you back in action.


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