Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo · 22-09-2010 7:23pm

Balance 1933

Lierse SK v Anderlecht (-1) @ 2.25 <8>

Anderlecht sit in second place with 16 scored and only the one against. They have won 2 of their 3 away matches scoring 5 and conceding 0 along the way. Undefeated in 7 games and they bring the form and momentum into this game. And it is against one of the worst teams in the league at the moment. They have only scored 5 and conceded 16. This should be an Anderlecht win and they should have too much to just win by a goal. Generous odds and high confidence means i'll take this bet.

Stake 50

Scunthorpe vs Man Utd (-1) @ evens. <7>

Scunthorpe are a team sttruggling in the Championship and even though they face a depleted Utd squad tonight they are still a few classes below them. Only thing i worry about is match sharpness but i'm sure any player that gets a chance for Utd will be up for it and out to impress. I just can't see this being too much of a test for the Utd reserves. Probably won't be a blow out but i see it being a 2 goal win at least. The Scunthorpe manager said he is going to attack and not sit back which should expose them at the back. When a watered down Utd team were on form and fit they put on some great performances in the pre season. I'll risk the handicap here tonight.

Stake 40

Freiburg (DNB) vs Schalke @ 2.20. <5>

On paper you can see who has the better form and may look straight forward. But there is a big risk as Schalke finished second last season and are in the Champions League. But this is their worst start to the Budesliga ever. But you always fear that with their set of players they can turn it around anytime. Freiburg are pretty much over achieving this year and just like Schalke you have to fear their streak has to end sometime. I'm gonna add a bit of a safety net and play this DNB.

Stake 10

KSV Superfund v Wacker Innsbruck @ 2.40. <6>

Again this is another game backed up by stats just like the Genk one yesterday which came through. So i'll be hoping for a similar outcome tonight. Innsbruck are the in form team being undefeated in 6 games and having won 5 of them. Scoring 14 and only conceding 2. Away from home they have won their 2 games and scored 6 with letting any in. Kapfenburg have just won the 2 games in 7 but they are a difficult team to play against at home. Managing 5 points from 9 and only conceding 2. But Innsbruck should have too much for them and i'm expecting them to nick it in a low scoring game.

Stake 20

Also a treble

Borussia Dortmund v Kaiserslautern (Over 2.5) @ 1.61 <7>
Chelsea v Newcastle (Over 2.5) @ 1.50
Scunthorpe v Man Utd @ 1.40

Total odds 3.39

Stake 20

El Horseboxo · 22-09-2010 9:56pm

Really shocked at the Anderlecht result. Winning 0-1 and then Lierse go down to 10 men and equalize. And thought Freiburg were gonna get my stake returned but conceded late to lose 1-2. 3 wins outta 5 put me up a little bit though.

Balance 1988.80
Profit 1438.80

El Horseboxo · 22-09-2010 11:04pm

AC Bellinzona v FC Thun Draw @ 3.20
Avispa Fukuoka @ 2.37
FC Otelul Galati @ 2.40
Ventforet Kofu @ 1.72
Vasby & Draw @ 1.72

Will edit with any selections if i take them after a bit of further research. Some have a kick off in the next while so might miss them.

EDIT

Gone for

Cruzeiro v Ceara (Over 2.5 goals) @ Evens <8>

Most of both of these teams games have gone over 2.5 goals as they both have problems defending. Cruzeiro have scored 31 and conceded 22. Ceara have scored 19 and conceded 20. Cruz are capable of scoring 2 given their current form but they are also venerable to letting one in.

Stake 20

San Jose Oruro v Atletico Huila @ Evens <8>

Altitude is the main factor here i pick the home win. Also i'm taking into consideration that Oruro have the more experience in domestic international competition and that Colombian teams usually don't do well away from home. Having lived at altitude myself i know what it's like to try get accustomed to it in a short space of time. So i see the visitors having a hard time coping with the height.

Stake 20

Estudiantes v Newell's Old Boys @ 1.90 <7>

Estudiantes at home is always going to be a hard game. And they usually do well in International tournaments as they take them very serious. Well most Argentine clubs do. But i think they have the beatings of Newell's with a near full strength squad to choose from. So i'll risk the home win.

Stake 10

Goias v Atletico Goianiense <7>

As i write this Goias are a goal down. So what i was going to write would probably sound a bit stupid now. But i'm still hopeful of a win as they are in a relegation battle and have been in good form with some good recent results. This Brazilian league is a league all about form. Anybody can beat anybody once they are in form. And usually only 1 or 2 teams at most hit a streak. So i'll be hoping for a comeback and a home win.

Stake 10

El Horseboxo · 23-09-2010 1:28am

There's a reason i usually stay away from South American games. I rarely have any luck with them and i never think them through. 2 losers so far. Although San Jose just went up. As did Estudiantes. Need the remaining games as winners just to get my money back.

El Horseboxo · 23-09-2010 1:25pm

Estudiantes drew but San Jose won convincingly. So i lost 20 on South American games. But i done a treble based on the teams i posted above that i was going to further research. Meant to post in here but i shut down the computer before i remembered. I'll stick the screenshot in below. I love when you come home and log in and you see that your over night games have won. All in the Japanese 2nd league.

Balance 2168.75
Profit 1618.75

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 1:26am

Energie Cottbus v Hertha Berlin (Over 2.5) @ 1.66
Fluminense vs Atleico MG (Over 2.5) @ 1.66
Vitoria vs Avai (Over 2.5) @ 1.80
FC Volendam @ 1.90
Drogheda United v Sporting Fingal (Over 2.5) @ 1.83
Bray vs UCD (Kilduff to score anytime) @ 2.60
Bray vs UCD (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80
Portsmouth DNB @ evens
FC Trenkwalder Admira @ 1.83
FF Jaro @ 1.90
Xerez @ evens
Siena @ evens
Vannes v Tours (Guie Guie to score anytime) @ 2.20
Nantes v Grenoble (Djordjevic to score anytime) @ 3.20
Le Mans v Dijon (Ribas to score anytime) @ 3.10
Korona Kielce @ evens
Lech Poznan @ 2.62
Bursaspor v Bucaspor (Over 2.5) @ evens

EDIT

Didn't even realize it had gone after 1am. Was doing a bit of research on games for tomorrow. All of the above are backed up with stats at a quick glance. Would need team news before going for any of them. Anyways i put on a double of overs in both the Brazilian games tonight. It's currently 1-1 in the Flu game and 1-0 in the Vitoria one. I'll stick the screenshot up.

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 9:21am

Brilliant. Another day to check overnight results and see you won. Vitoria scoring the third goal late enough and Flu crusing after MG had a player sent off. Avai look to be in some terrible state now. Watched a bit of the match bit they were shocking and put me asleep. Flu maybe about to hit another streak after they get Deco and Concho back.

Balance 2226.25
Profit 1676.25

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 2:31pm

Gonna have a look at the Universtitatea Cluj vs CFR Cluj derby. Last time i bet on Universitatea i made a packet on the overs market in play due to them being knowing they can't defend and try to make up for it by scoring. Today they play the better CFR team but they have an away EL game next week in Italy. So their heart may not be entirely in this derby. Gonna watch the overs and home win market.

EDIT

Gone for over 2.5 goals in this game @ 2.50.

Stake 46.25

EDIT

Currently 1-0 to Universitatea

Gone for Over 1.5 goals in the first half @ 2.62

Stake 20

and

Both teams to score in the first half @ 4.00

Stake 10

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 3:04pm

Suppose i better create new posts as only one edit time comes up.

Anyways i got those 2 bets on just before a free kick. Then it went suspended for a while when someone was getting treated and CFR scored from the free. So 1-1 now and my 2 last bets come in. The first one for the overs is also looking good.

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 3:49pm

Doubt i'll have any more bets in this game. The second have seems a little flat. CFR Cluj look like they are trying to conserve energy by not really chasing anything. Universitatea DNB might be a worthy bet. I'll see how it goes but at this stage my overs aren't looking too great. And as i type this i have probably just witnessed the worst open goal miss ever. It looked harder to miss than score.

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 4:26pm

I swear i've never seen a half with players putting their hands on their heads so much. Shíte defending and even shítter finishing. And they look so surprised when they miss.

Balance 2232.50

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 9:58pm

I done a few bets that i didn't get to post up here. I put them on while stopped at various traffic lights. Had a double and an accumulator win for a nice return. Well i'm guessing Naval won't come back to draw or win from 3-0 down with around 10 minutes left.

I also had 20 on Djordjevic anytime scorer which lost. Nantes score 2 goals and he's not on the scoresheet. I though he was the only person who could score for them.

Also had a double of Jaro to win and over 2.5 in the Cottbus vs Hertha game. Which only finished 0-1. So that lost too. Had 20 on that.

And i lost a treble of all these 3 to win, Lech Pozan, Korona and Xerez. Lech let me down even though they played a whole half against 10 men. Had 10 on that.

I'll work out the balance once everything gets settled.

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 10:08pm

Balance 2306.34
Profit 1756.34

Very happy man.

Megatitan · 24-09-2010 10:12pm

Just reading through, very impressed! Any thoughts on the velez sarsfield game tonight?

Sir Vival · 24-09-2010 10:34pm

Fair play Horseboxo, great write-ups and great profit. Gonna start following from your next bet onwards, starting with a bank of €50.

Keep up the good work.

El Horseboxo · 24-09-2010 10:41pm

Thanks Megatitan.

Actually i was on my way in here to post on that game. I've just put on a 46.34 bet on Velez to beat the -1 handicap. Decent odds of 2.37 on PP.

Velez Sarsfield (-1) vs Olimpo @ 2.37. <8>

Velez are considered one of the better teams in the Argentine league and were tipped to get themselves together again this year and mount a serious contention for the title. 7 games in and they are well on their way towards living up to the challenge by sitting in 2nd place. They started off great winning their first 3 games before taking a loss away against Boca. Then it was back home with a win against River which was followed by 2 scoreless draws away from home. You begin to see a pattern emerge. Not only this season, but in others too Velez have shown that their main strength is at home. They have played 3 at home and have won 3. All only by 1 goal margins but were against teams better than newly promoted Olimpo. After 2 scoreless away games i expect them to get into gear tonight and turn it on for the fans. They have a full strength team to choose from as Zapata is back from injury. They are a quick team and love to use the wings, where i expect their goals to come from.

Olimpo on the other hand are basically the complete opposite of Velez. They are very poor at the back, offer next to nothing in attack, have suspensions and injuries and are bad away from home. They've played 4 away from home and lost them all. Only scoring 2 and conceding 7. Only once were they beaten by more than 1 goal though. And that was against top placed San Lorenzo. Who Velez recently held to a 0-0 draw. So against top quality teams they appear more vunerable to conceding and not scoring. I know it's only one game but i'm hoping the same proves through for Velez tonight. Olimpo are the typical team who make the jump to the first division and then find themselves outta their depth and go straight back down.

The Argentine league isn't known as an overs league so a 1-0 home win would not surprise me. I think Velez are too strong at home and at the back to concede. So it's just a matter of are Velez up to scoring tonight. I can't see them not scoring for 3 games in a row. If they get an early goal they should cover the handicap. I wouldn't be betting my house on this but it has a great chance of coming in.

Stake 46.34

jive · 24-09-2010 11:16pm

Last edited by El Horseboxo; Today at 22:48. Reason: Just noticed i called Megatitan, "Megatron"

rofl. thanks for bringing my attention to this match, took velez to win not on the handicap though. based on recent form and the previews i've read they should walk it. was looking at the other games in argentina as well and i like the look of banfield DNB but i wont place anything till closer to the match

El Horseboxo · 25-09-2010 12:08am

Happy with their performance up till half time. If both teams play in the same fashion in the second there should be no chance of Olimpo scoring. Not sure if Velez will score again though. Maybe 1 more. They usually sit back in the second half.

I was looking at some of the other Argentine games Jive. Nothing really stands out. It's a minefield in that league at the moment. Some teams just got new managers. Others are literally fighting for their jobs and even Independiente are struggling to find a manager. A few people have said no. When i was in Argentina i heard around this time of the season being referred to as "toca de los lobos". Meaning knock of the wolves. A lot of boards decide around the 8th week of the apertura whether they want to continue on with that manager. How true that is i'm not actually sure. A few Boca fans were telling me.

El Horseboxo · 25-09-2010 3:04am

Velez win 3-0 so another nice bet in the bank.

Balance 2370.06

TCU @ SMU

Over 52.5 points @ 1.83

PP are so slow to update their lines when someone scores in some of the games. They suspend it and then change it but when there's a pick they react too slow and when it goes to a third down they react too quick. As if that's end of the drive. Just down it there when TCU responded with an 83 yard punt return to the SMU 5. Went to second down and they dropped the lines as if they were expecting only a field goal. Can't believe i got that line with 38 on the board and only 3 minutes gone in the 3rd.

Stake 50

EDIT

The TCU game finished 41-24. Well covering the overs line. Thought they would have racked up more style points but SMU showed a little bit of fight in the last quarter. Will be interesting to see the Boise game tomorrow and how they managed with the styling. Overs could look good.

Balance 2411.73
Profit 1861.73

El Horseboxo · 25-09-2010 4:27am

FC Seoul @ 1.66
Nagoya Grampus Eight And Draw @ 1.53
Gamba Osaka And Draw @ 1.50
LA Galaxy +1 @ 1.90

The above is an accumulator bet. Just put 11.73 on it. Hopefully a third night in a row win with over night bets.

LOSE

Balance 2400

Celtic -1 @ 1.90 (15:00)
(7 for, 0 against at home. Hibs only 1 win in 5. Lost away to St. Mirren)

Domzale @ 2.30 (17:00)
(Domzale have best away form in the league. Koper have one of the worst. Dom should have 2 suspensions though as they'd 2 players sent off last game. Which they still won)

FRAM Reykjavik v FH Hafnarfjordur Result = 2-3 @ 23.00 (15:00)
(A lot of the games in this league go tit for tat with the favorite edging it in the end. So 2-3 seems like a plausible result)

Innsbruck vs Neustadt Over 3.5 @ 2.50 (17:30)
(Big potential for goals in this game. Neustadt average scoring slightly over 2 goals per away game. But they average around the same in the conceding department. Innsbruck are strong and don't overly concede at home. But they may be tired as they only played 3 days ago and let in 2.)

Mainz and Draw @ 2.70 (14:30)
(Despite Bayerns late comeback last week they still look really poor and an in form Mainz is capable of a win or at least a draw. Especially with Ribery and Robben out and also Bayern have a CL game next week. May not be too motivated for this and they are more than able to turn their season around when back at full strength.)

Salzburg vs Reid (Under 2.5 @ 2.10, Reid DNB @ 4.50, Reid Double chance @ 2.30) (17:30)
(Salzburg have been one of the teams in Austria winning the league last season but there is something wrong at the club this season. Only 1 win out of 6 and no wins in the last 5. They haven't scored in the last 2 games and have a tough trip away to Lech during the week. Reid sit 2nd with 6 wins from 8 and 4 wins from the last 5. They have had some very respectable away wins by scoring 10 and only conceding 2. They are strong at the back and dangerous on the counter. Salzburg may have one eye on the EL game in Poland in a must win game for them so this could suit Reid in their set up. I don't know how Salzburg can turn it around in this game and some very generous odds for DNB or straight win if you didn't want the safety net. 5.50 for that.)

Genk -1 @ 2.30 (19:00)
(Genk with 7 wins in 8 and 1 draw. A very strong home side with 4 wins outta 4 and 14 goals with just 3 against. Waregem sit around mid table with 2 wins from 8. Both at home. They have no wins away from home and surely a team averaging over 3 goals a game can outscore them by 2. Especially with Vossen on such good form.)

RNK Split @ 2.37 (15:00)
(Split have hit form as of late and have moved up to 4th with 5 wins out of 8. They are unbeaten in 5 games and have got good wins in their last 2 away games. What i'm also interested in is the form of their hosts. No wins in 8 with 6 losses. 5 goals for and 17 against. They haven't won at home and have only scored 1 goal in 3 games. They are a mess and should not be able to get anything against a strong in form Split. Split only came up to the league but yet they have the best defensive record in the league. So that lowers the threat of them conceding against a team that couldn't buy a goal at the moment. Istra don't know how to defend so bar so big upset Split should score.

Midtjylland v FC Copenhagen Over 2.5 @ 1.80 (14:00)
(History is on their side for the overs. A majority of the meetings have gone over. Also both have been averaging over 2 goals a game this season. And they have each conceded in a lot of games.)

Norrkoping DNB @ 1.80 (15:00)
(Top of the league team Norrkoping visit Orgryte who have one of the worst home records in the league. Norr have one of the best winning 7 of 13. They average almost 2 goals per away game but they've almost conceded as many as that. So the DNB as cover seems like a good option. Although a straight win should be within capability. But Orgryte can be a dogged team and hard to break down.)

Luzern @ 2.20 (16:45)
(Luzern sit top of the league with 5 wins out of 8 and just the one loss. They've been averaging over 3 goals a game with 10 against in total. Today they play bottom placed St. Gallen who have just 2 wins out of 9. Only one of them at home. Luzern have 2 out of 3 wins away scoring 8 and letting in 2. And those wins were against top 4 teams. So they should be able to get a win against a Gallen team that's in shocking form.)

El Horseboxo · 25-09-2010 2:53pm

Salzburg vs Reid (Reid DNB @ 4.50) <7>

Salzburg have been one of the teams in Austria winning the league last season but there is something wrong at the club this season. Only 1 win out of 6 and no wins in the last 5. They haven't scored in the last 2 games and have a tough trip away to Lech during the week. Reid sit 2nd with 6 wins from 8 and 4 wins from the last 5. They have had some very respectable away wins by scoring 10 and only conceding 2. They are strong at the back and dangerous on the counter. Salzburg may have one eye on the EL game in Poland in a must win game for them so this could suit Reid in their set up. I don't know how Salzburg can turn it around in this game and some very generous odds for DNB or straight win if you didn't want the safety net. 5.50 for that.

Stake 20

Genk (-1) vs Zulte Waregem @ 2.30 <8>

Genk with 7 wins in 8 and 1 draw. A very strong home side with 4 wins outta 4 and 14 goals with just 3 against. Waregem sit around mid table with 2 wins from 8. Both at home. They have no wins away from home and surely a team averaging over 3 goals a game can outscore them by 2. Especially with Vossen on such good form.

Stake 20

NK Istra v RNK Split @ 2.37 <8>

Split have hit form as of late and have moved up to 4th with 5 wins out of 8. They are unbeaten in 5 games and have got good wins in their last 2 away games. What i'm also interested in is the form of their hosts. No wins in 8 with 6 losses. 5 goals for and 17 against. They haven't won at home and have only scored 1 goal in 3 games. They are a mess and should not be able to get anything against a strong in form Split. Split only came up to the league but yet they have the best defensive record in the league. So that lowers the threat of them conceding against a team that couldn't buy a goal at the moment. Istra don't know how to defend so bar so big upset Split should score.

Stake 20

Treble of

Celtic -1 @ 1.90
QPR @ 1.66
Innsbruck 1.72

Stake 10

and

Luzern @ 2.20
Mainz and Draw @ 2.50
Innsbruck vs Neustadt (Over 3.5) @ 2.50

Stake 10

El Horseboxo · 25-09-2010 4:58pm

RNK Split win.

Celtic let me down in the treble by only winning 2-1. I watched the second half and they are absolute shíte. I don't know how they scored 2 goals because they haven't a clue how to pass or finish. Don't know why i put them in it at those odds. Should have went for the Overs in the Midtjylland game which was my first thought.

El Horseboxo · 25-09-2010 8:17pm

Balance 2367.50

Hour gone in the Genk game and still 0-0. Looks like 2 teams that have whacking them in for fun forogt how to score today. Innsbruck finished 0-0 too. Really should have done single bets instead of that treble. 2 came in at good odds.

EDIT

Genk win 3-0. Left it till mid way in the second half to get the first one. That Vossen fella is some goal scorer.

Small bit of profit today.

Balance 2413.50
Profit 1863.50

El Horseboxo · 25-09-2010 8:58pm

Alabama @ Arkansas

Alabama -1 @ 1.90

Bama down 7 after just a few seconds which means that the handicap line drops. I was hoping for something lower than the pre game 7 which they should still cover. But the -1 makes the bet all that bit safer.

Stake 50

My will power paid off as Alabama win by 4 points in a really nervy ending. I was so close to taking the -7 pre game but something told me it would be a closer game than that. Listening to the aul gut paid off. 2 more games of interest later. Boise State and Arizona. I'll post up if i bet on them.

Balance 2458.95
Profit 1908.95

El Horseboxo · 26-09-2010 12:54am

California At Arizona (-6) @ 1.90

The Wildcats are 3-0 and up to 14th in the rankings. 2 big wins and a well fought win over Iowa last week. They come into this game with the momentum and should have too much for California at home. Cali aren't as good as Iowa and if Arizona can beat them by 7 points they should register a higher margin here. This is Cali's second road game in a row and they were destroyed by Nevada last week. Don't think Arizona will be the place they regain their confidence. I just hope Reily doesn't play like he did in his first 2 games. But Arizona's pass game should be too much.

Stake 38.95

Utah State @ San Diego State (-8.5) @ 1.90

After a late loss last week SD are back on home turf and will be looking to overturn the disappointment of allowing a very late Missouri TD. Utah are the weaker team and come into this game with a few injuries from last week. They are rivals but Utah have only won once outta 10 meetings. Confidence is low at Utah and they should go 1-3 tonight against the Aztecs. SD have a week off next week so they will probably look to earn that rest in style.

Stake 20

Gonna have some in game action on the Oregon @ Boise game i reckon. See if the overs line or Oregon handicap drops.

turbobaby · 26-09-2010 1:41am

Good work man, keep it up! V impressive....

El Horseboxo · 26-09-2010 3:21am

Thanks Turbo.

Just gone over 56.5 in the Oregon @ Boise game @ 1.83.

Currently 10-24 to Boise.

Stake 20

EDIT

The Boise game and the San Diego game came through. A bit shocked at the Arizona score.

Balance 2454.67
Profit 1904.67

El Horseboxo · 26-09-2010 11:59am

Gone for an interest accumulator i feel has a good chance of coming off.

Brondby v Silkeborg @ 1.50
VfL Wolfsburg v Freiburg (Over 2.5) @ 1.44
Aberdeen v Rangers @ 1.61
Bolton v Man Utd (Over 2.5) @ 1.66

Total odds 5.83

Stake 14.67

El Horseboxo · 26-09-2010 1:46pm

Huracan v Godoy Cruz (Godoy Cruz DNB) @ 2.10 <6> (20:00)

Godoy are a team that seem to play better outside their stadium with some good results on the road. Huracan are a very similar team in that respect. In fact they have the 2nd worst home record with no wins in 3 home games. Godoy have racked up 9 goals in their 3 away games and conceded 4. So against a team that has conceded in every home game i expect them to score. Especially with Ramirez and Castilla in form. I expect a win here for Godoy based on performances and form. But the DNB adds a bit of cover. Huracan just got a new manager and he's still sussing out his team and is expected to change the formation for this game. So the team will either take a while to adjust or it could be what they need. That info is what enticed me towards the DNB.

River Plate v Quilmes (River Plate -1) @ 2.50 <7> (00:15)

River Plate are a big name but have been fading from that reputation for a while now. However they are still a decent enough team and even though they sit in 6th position they are still threatened with relegation due to the 'promedio' system in the league where they work out average position over 3 years. So the champions can actually end up relegated. So they need to be motivated on both counts to win at home. And they currently have 3 wins from 3 to back up their strength on familiar turf. They have yet to cover the handicap in their 7 games this season. But tonight they play a very inept Quilmes who are struggling big time. Quilmes haven't won away in 3 attempts and currently sit bottom of the league. They have some injury worries and have been beaten by the -1 handicap twice away from home. I expect River to have too much for them and win 2-0. Quilmes have yet to score away and i don't expect them to do so tonight either.

Sydney FC v Gold Coast United (Both teams to score) @ 1.83 <6> <05:00>

Sydney have scored and conceded in every home game while they Gold Coast have scored in their away games. This is just purely based on stats and if the trend continues they both should find the net.

Esbjerg v Randers (Over 2.5) @ Evens <7> (15:00)

Randers have conceded in all but one of their away games and regularly break the overs barrier. Likewise Esbjerg have scored in all but one of their home games and most their matches go over too. Their last 3 games have produced 11 goals. Esbjerg have conceded in all their home games and are weak at the back. All the ingredients for more than 2 goals.

IFK Mariehamn v JJK Jyvaskyla (Over 2.5) @ 1.80 <7> (18:30)

2 relegation candidates battling it out in a game that should be each team trying to outscore the other as neither can defend. In the last 3 games of each team they've produced a combined total of 22 goals. Both teams score in most games and are averaging well over a goal per game. This is pretty much an overs league when lower teams meet and this has a great chance of continuing the trend.

Valerenga v Brann (Over 3.5) @ 2.10 <7> (19:00)

Valerenga are a goal machine. They're games usually beat the over 3.5, 4.5 and even 5.5. The last 3 games of each of these teams have produced 27 goals combined. Valerenga average almost 4 goals per home game but they usually concede. And Brann always score away from home. The bookies know this should be a game with goals hence the low odds for over 3.5. But i think it's worth a risk. I was even considering over 4.5 @ 3.25. In this game it is possible.

NK Primorje v Nafta Lendava (Nafta) @ 2.25 <6> (15:00)

Nafta sit top of the table after 10 games with 22 for and 13 against. 9 of them coming away from home. Primorje sit second from bottom with just 2 wins from 9. Both coming at home however, so this is a risky bet. Primorje came up from the second league after it was dismantled. They started off with losses and found it difficult in the top flight like most newly promoted teams. But they have won their last 2 games convincingly. But today they are up against a strong and in form Nafta team who could just have too much for them. Given the recent games it will probably be a tight game with a few goals.

Malmo v IFK Goteborg (Under 2.5) @ evens <6> (15:30)

I rarely call unders in a game let alone put money on it. Still not sure if i will yet. But i think this will be a tight low scoring game. Maybe a 1-0 or 2-0. Against top placed teams Malmo games have been unders matches. The same with IFK. Malmo have only conceded 5 at home while IFK are pretty tight themselves away from home. Malmo are the in form team and should hold onto most of the possession. IFK will look to counter from a defensive position. I'm not a fan of unders as i have little luck with them. But the stats point towards less than 3 today.

Internacional v Corinthians (Over 2.5) @ evens <6> (20:00)

Avai v Ceara (Over 2.5) @ evens <6> (22:30)

El Horseboxo · 26-09-2010 2:14pm

So far i've gone for

Esbjerg v Randers (Over 2.5) @ Evens <7> (15:00)

Randers have conceded in all but one of their away games and regularly break the overs barrier. Likewise Esbjerg have scored in all but one of their home games and most their matches go over too. Their last 3 games have produced 11 goals. Esbjerg have conceded in all their home games and are weak at the back. All the ingredients for more than 2 goals.

Stake 25

NK Primorje v Nafta Lendava (Nafta) @ 2.25 <6> (15:00)

Nafta sit top of the table after 10 games with 22 for and 13 against. 9 of them coming away from home. Primorje sit second from bottom with just 2 wins from 9. Both coming at home however, so this is a risky bet. Primorje came up from the second league after it was dismantled. They started off with losses and found it difficult in the top flight like most newly promoted teams. But they have won their last 2 games convincingly. But today they are up against a strong and in form Nafta team who could just have too much for them. Given the recent games it will probably be a tight game with a few goals.

Stake 15

Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

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