Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

One of the thoughts going through my head was that Nafta would probably fúck it up by getting a red card. And of course they've gone and done that. And now they've gone one down. ****.

EDIT

And second placed Brondby losing at home 2-0 to the team bottom of the league. Put the game on when 0-0 at half time and it just makes me wonder how Brondby ever managed to score in the past or make it to second. Abosolute shiíte. Fúcking up my accumulator after the other 3 came in. Stupid Danish cúnts.

EDIT

Don't know how the overs in the Randers game managed to come in. Was 0-1 up to the 85th minute so 2 late goals to make it 1-2 saved me.

Balance 2450

El Horseboxo

Gone for this one now

Valerenga v Brann (Over 3.5) @ 2.10 <7> (19:00)

Valerenga are a goal machine. They're games usually beat the over 3.5, 4.5 and even 5.5. The last 3 games of each of these teams have produced 27 goals combined. Valerenga average almost 4 goals per home game but they usually concede. And Brann always score away from home. The bookies know this should be a game with goals hence the low odds for over 3.5. But i think it's worth a risk. I was even considering over 4.5 @ 3.25. In this game it is possible.

Stake 20

EDIT

None of the teams who have been scoring huge seemed to turn up this weekend. 1-0 this game finished. I won't bet on them next week and there'll be 7 goals in their match.

PP is down till 10:30 so they say. Since all my money is tied up in it i couldn't get any NFL bets on.

El Horseboxo

Balance 2430

In play bet

River Plate v Quilmes (River Plate -1) @ 3.30 <7> (00:15)

River Plate are a big name but have been fading from that reputation for a while now. However they are still a decent enough team and even though they sit in 6th position they are still threatened with relegation due to the 'promedio' system in the league where they work out average position over 3 years. So the champions can actually end up relegated. So they need to be motivated on both counts to win at home. And they currently have 3 wins from 3 to back up their strength on familiar turf. They have yet to cover the handicap in their 7 games this season. But tonight they play a very inept Quilmes who are struggling big time. Quilmes haven't won away in 3 attempts and currently sit bottom of the league. They have some injury worries and have been beaten by the -1 handicap twice away from home. I expect River to have too much for them and win 2-0. Quilmes have yet to score away and i don't expect them to do so tonight either.

Stake 20

EDIT

Well that's that one lost anyways. River Plate were up against 12 players. Totally dominated the game and should have had 2 clear penos. One fella through on goal gets a drop kick in the back. I mean literally the defender jumps into his back with his legs. The other was another tackle from behind when through on goal. They also had 2 one on ones with the goal keeper that were called back and given as a free on the half way line. Ref must not know anything about playing advantage. Quilmes equalize deep into injury time when a player falls over the ball with no one near him and gets a free. They score from it. Ref must have been on the draw.

Balance 2410

El Horseboxo

Gone for a few small interest bets in

Packers @ Bears


Greg Jennings to score anytime TD @ evens
Jermichael Finlay to score anytime TD @ 2.60
Total Points over 45.5 @ 1.90

Stake 10 on each


Packers (-3) @ Bears @ 1.90

If the Packers sort out special teams they should win by more than a field goal. They've really hurt them in the first half.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Get in there Jennings. Went to make something to eat and missed the TD though.

Stupid fúcking Packers and their holding. Finlay caught a TD and then gets a flag thrown. Not looking good for the overs either. A 7 minute + drive and no points.

El Horseboxo

Balance 2380

Spartak Moscow to win and Welliton to score @ 2.30

Stake 20

Lost the Welliton bet who went of injured mid way through the second half.

But i managed to get 40 euro down just as Spartak scored the third goal thanks to PP's slow reaction to suspending the market.

El Horseboxo

Balance 2450

Inter Milan vs Werder Breman (E'too to score anytime) @ 2.20 <7>

Inter haven't looked as good or as strong this season as they were under Mourinho. But they have managed to get some results in their favor and one player that's been on good form and impressed is E'too. He's scored 2 in a few games and has scored in all of Inter's home wins. He has also been knocking them in for Cameroon and scored in Inter's last CL game. I think he is taking peno's now too. So i think he's a good shout to score. Especially against a Werder defense that i don't rate much and is even further depleted through injury.

Stake 30

Get in there E'too. 2 goals after 25 minutes.

El Horseboxo

Done 2 trebles also that give a good return. A bit of a long shot but small enough stakes.


Rangers vs Bursapor (Both to score) @ 1.90
Valencia vs Man Utd (Both to score) @ 1.80
Spurs vs Twente (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72

Total odds 5.94

Stake 20



Valencia vs Man Utd (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.10
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Lyon (Shechter to score anytime) @ 4.20
Inter vs Werder Bremen @ 1.57
Wimbledon vs Cambridge @ 1.66

total odds 23.10

Stake 15

El Horseboxo

Haha a euro profit. Surprised i'm up after getting so much wrong. Just as well i done low stakes on the trebles.

Balance 2451

El Horseboxo

Gonna have a bit of college ball action tonight.

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State

Both these teams meet tonight with a perfect 6-0 combined record. OSU is 1st in the rankings for total offense while A&M is ranked 10th in total defense. Sounds like 2 great teams meeting each other huh? Far from it. They have both played weak teams and their stats look better than each teams capability. So we still don't know how legit either of these teams are. Not to knock OSU as they have been playing some great O and Weedon has been on fire through the air. And they had the tougher game against Tulsa compared with A&M's battle with the weaker FIU in which Johnson through 4 INT's in the 3rd quarter. He was also sacked 6 times. That game was the first test after their first 2 easy games. And if there is any sort of a repeat of last games performance against OSU they will be destroyed. A&M haven't been good on the road in past seasons and i think they are gonna struggle tonight. Historically they never do well on national tv and the home crowd may get into their heads. OSU have been scoring an average of 57 points per game and this one has a good chance of overs. But A&M will need to be out to play tonight if that is gonna happen. Although OSU have been blowing teams away in the first 3 and sending on the 2nd string for the last quarter. So the 4th could get the overs up. However this is OSU's first real test so the scores may not be as high. Might have a look at in play considering that fact.

So for now i'm just going to go with

OSU (-2.5) @ 1.90

Stake 26

WTF. 2 interceptions and 1 sack fumble in the first quarter. OSU are an average team at best but they are throwing this away. Literally.

EDIT

Finally the OSU i was expecting turn up to play. A&M throwing interceptions again in the third and failing to convert on 4th. 28-21 going into the 4th. Let's hold on Cowboys.

EDIT

A&M again with a fumble. Dropped and ran in for a TD. 21-35 with 28 unanswered points.

El Horseboxo

Wow forgetting the money which is very little anyways. But some end to this game. A&M bring it back to 35-35 and just move into the OSU half with about 30 seconds left. Then they throw a pick and OSU manage to get it within 40 yards for a FG with 2 seconds left. Almost fúcked it up as the rush began with 10 seconds on he clock but struggled to get down on the ground. And then Bailey makes a great FG for the Cowboys to snatch it 38-35. And that brought my bet home.

Balance 2474.64
Profit 1924.64

El Horseboxo

Troy (+4) @ Middle Tennessee @ 1.90

Troy are the better team with the better offense and have had the better of this fixture in the past. Only reason they are not favorites is because Dasher is back for MTSU. Who is an exceptional QB. He is back after a 4 game suspension and hasn't played in a while. I just think he may be a bit rusty and think he'll throw a pick or two. Both are pretty weak at the back and i expect this to be a bit of shootout so i'll probably play overs in play if i like a line. Going with statistics and how well Troy played against a strong Oklahoma team and that they haven't been losing ATS. I'll go for the Trojans.

Stake 34.64

El Horseboxo

Troy destroyed MTSU just as i thought. 42-13. Could have easily been by a lot more only for a perfect catch in the end zone and a stupid drop and a blocked FG.

Balance 2506.13
Profit 1956.13

El Horseboxo

Nebraska (-8.5) at Kansas @ 1.90

Got this line when Kansas where driving and stupid went for the rush on 4th and 2 and ended up with just a yard and coming away with nothing. Nebraska are the better team and are one of the meanest defenses in college ball. Martinez is a good QB and they should beat Kansas by 2 or 3 TD's. Feel confident in this bet.

Stake 56.13

EDIT.

Martinez. What a QB and i'm not talking about his passing game. Dude has 3 rushing TD's and the 3rd quarter just started. Some speed and change of pace from the guy.

El Horseboxo

Blackhawks (+1.5) at Avalance @ 2.10

This is obviously a mistake and will probably be refunded. Chicago are the Stanley cup champions and Colorado are a team full of rookies. It's a much change Blackhawks team due to the salary cap but they should still be favorites against the Avalance. Neither had great pre seaons but Chicago did do a little better on the road than Colorado's home record. The Blackhawks were already 1 up when i took this bet. So in effect it is a +2.5 at the moment. But as i said i expect this to be refunded but is worth the chance.

Stake 50

El Horseboxo

PP paid out on the Blackhawaks game. Which they lost in overtime by a single goal. Was really expecting my money to be refunded this morning. I had a plan all thought out to get on to live help and tell them that i clicked the Avalance button for +1.5 but due to their mistake it came up as Blackhawks. No need now as it's in the bank.

Also Nebraska steam rolled to a win against Kansas and only gave up a TD when they changed their players in the final quarter.

Balance 2602.61
Profit 2052.61

El Horseboxo

Uruguay were a goal down and i was just putting 50 on them to win @ 1.90 and then they went and equalized. They had a shaky start going by what the commentator was saying but for the last 15 mins of the second half it has all been Uruguay and they look like they are out for a bit of fun and goals now. There's no Forlan but they still look a threat. It's 1-2 to Uruguay now but i think they are good for at least 2 more goals. I hope they come early and don't start changing the team too much and sit back.

Uruguay to score 2 or more second half goals @ 2.25

Stake 32.61

El Horseboxo

Well that's 1-4 now so the above bet is in the bag.

Balance 2643.37

Also gone for over 6.5 goals. Uruguay have just taken off a defender for a striker so they aren't looking like sitting back.

Over 6.5 @ 2.20

Stake 23.37

El Horseboxo

1-7 now. So the over 6.5 is also in.

Balance 2671.41
Profit 2121.41

El Horseboxo

Kazakhstan (+1) v Belgium @ 2.40

The Kazaks are by far not a good team but they are like a lot of teams from that region. Very industrious and hard to break down. They also have pacy wingers that could pose a problem on the counter. But the main part that interests me is the artificial pitch they will play on. We've seen this type of field play havoc with teams in the past. Most recently Spurs away to Young Boys. And then throw into the mix an impotent Belgian side in front of goal. They are also missing Vermaelen and Kompany and Van Buyton has been part of a Bayern defense that's been exposed time after time so far this season. Belgium are a team that don't travel well either. You have to go back 12 games to find their last away win. H2H has been 2 draws as well. Nothing much has changed with the Belgian squad and they are still looking weak. I think a draw is a real possibility here or even an upset home win.

Stake 21.41

EDIT

Well that should be a loss on this one. Belgium score early in the second half and then Kazakhstan had a goal disallowed for God knows what reason. Looked like a straightforward OG to me. Then the ref gives a stupid free kick to Belgium and sends off the player for bouncing the ball. Then it goes 0-2 before i could take Belgium -1 to cover my loss on it.

Balance 2650

x PyRo

Good stuff horse, you're on fire. Keep it up.

El Horseboxo

Thanks. The American sports have been giving me some wins while not much has interested me in the soccer recently. Sometimes not betting on shíte is just as good as winning money.

El Horseboxo

Estudiantes (-1) vs Olimpo @ 2.10

Not much reasoning for this other than Estudiantes are a top of the table, yet to concede or lose a game at home and are by far ther superior side. Olimpo have yet to pick up any points away from home, are 3rd from the bottom and are in terrible form. Estudiantes have covered the -1 handicap 3 times at home this season against stronger opposition than Olimpo and i expect them to do so tonight.

Stake 50

EDIT

Jesus fúcking Christ Estudiantes. They go one up from a peno in the first half and then they play absolute shíte. They are against 10 men and the way they are letting Olimpo play you would swear they are the bottom team with 10 men. Pure and utter shíte. About 10 mins left and i don't know where another goal is gonna come from for them.

EDIT

Haha another peno. About 2 mins after i posted the above. They scored and it's 2-0 now. And they are against 9 men. If they throw this away with a couple of minutes left i am going to Argentina and committing mass murder.

El Horseboxo

Finished 2-0.

Balance 2705
Profit 2155

Meant in play bet as a bet i had from earlier but never put up. Never done live betting on this game. Thought they would have. Good score at the moment to take advantage of.

U Conn @ Rutgers (Over 43.5) @ 1.90

Stake 50

UrbanSea

**** me el horseboxo I've just seen your blog now.
Keep up the good work kind sir.

El Horseboxo

OSU (-24) at ULL @ 1.90

Number 2 offense against number 108 ranked defense in terms of points. It's the first road game for OSU but they bring in the momentum and they have Blackmon. Weedon to Blackmon is gonna be a big feature of this game and i think OSU should win this by more than 3 TD's. A trip to the Bayou is always difficult but i don't think ULL will score enough to cover the spread.

Stake 30


Also going for the overs on this.

Over 61.5 @ 1.90

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

Thank God i went for the overs in the Uconn game. I was more so leaning towards the -5.5 on Uconn but given the history between these 2 teams i thought Rutgers could bounce back to form and keep it close. And that's what happened. Uconn threw it away. Went into the second half with great momentum and up by 10. And they came out and went 3 and out on nearly every play. Keep on rushing when it clearly wasn't working for them. Glad they lost the conservative fúcks. Made me sweat for the overs. Finished 27-24.

Balance 2690.45 (includes the 60 in play above)

Kod-box

Super form here dude...keep it up

El Horseboxo

Thanks Kod. Just got done watching the OSU game. Both the bets above came in. Finished 54-28. Really close in the end as ULL turned over on downs right at the end while on OSU's 15. Having a nice little streak on the college games. 7 in a row i think.

Balance 2804.99
Profit 2254.99

El Horseboxo

Some more NCAA games that i took during the week. Only getting around to typing up now. Always find it difficult to phrase my reasoning for American football as a lot of it is based on statistics and their are a lot of statistics in this sport.


Indiana at Ohio State (-22.5) @ 1.90

Ohio have been averaging winning this fixture by around the 24 mark. It's been 28 in recent home games. Ohio are ranked 4th at total defense only allowing around 240 yards per game. Pryor looks to have shaken off his injury and he can pass and run as he leads the team in rushing yards. Indiana put up 35 points last week against Michigan but i expect Ohio to be able to deal with their offense. They are quite one dimensional and Ohio should bring more balance and cover the spread.

Stake 20



Alabama (-6.5) at South Carolina @ 1.90

Alabama are simply a class above almost everyone on both sides of the ball and in their current form i don't see them losing this year. Last week they destroyed their number 7 ranked rivals Florida and i see them well covering the spread against SC who are ranked 19th. I don't rate their QB Garcia as he is fairly predictable. Alabama can be exposed in their secondary by a good QB as seen against Arkansas. But i don't think Garcia is good enough to reproduce Mallet's performance. McCoy and Ingram should tear SC apart. They have a great coach and i don't see Sabin allowing a let down performance. The Tide to win by a TD is very generous in my books.

Stake 50



San Diego (-4.5) at BYU @ 1.90


SD had an off week last weekend after hammering Utah the week before. Last weekend BYU were getting hammered by Utah 31-16. The BYU offense is ranked 114th and they are averaging less than 20 points a game. Thier QB is getting sacked and they are throwing picks. They are also allowing over 200 yards per game for both pass and rush attacks. Lindly should have his way with BYU tonight and Hillman should run at least one home. BYU also have a few injury concerns to make matters worse.

Stake 40



USC at Stanford (-9.5) @ 1.90

This fixture has gone USC's way in recent times but this should change tonight. Stanford are 4-1 with their only loss coming last week against a very good Oregon team. And they played really well in that game but Oregon showed their class in the second half. USC have a load of sanctions against them regarding the Bush incident. So they are suffering a little bit from them. They are also 4-1 but haven't covered the spread 3 times. They have allowed more yards that they have put up in 3 games and have looked a lot weaker this year. Stanford QB Luck is highly regarded and had been great this year. I can see Stanford taking this by at least 2 TD's.

Stake 20



Texas A&M at Arkansas (-5) @ 1.90

This rival match up is being played in the Dallas Cowboys stadium and should be a great game. Dallas isn't too far from the Arkansas state line so the out of state team should be well represented but Texas having the advantage on that front. Arkansas should be well rested after a week off last week and should come into this game feeling confident after a great display against Alabama the week before. Yes they lost the lead but against an amazing Alabama side you shouldn't feel too hard done by. Ryan Mallet leads this team and is one of the best QB's in the country. Under him they have been averaging close to 500 yards of total offense per game. Texas has also been playing good but have had the easier of opponents. They lost their last game against a good Oklahoma side and were exposed late in the game by a good QB. And i think that's where they should lose tonight. It will probably be close enough but Arkansas should win by at least a TD if they play to their potential. Texas QB Johnson makes too many mistakes and is prone to interceptions. Arkansas also won this fixture last time by 28 points.

Stake 30


Also going for the overs in the following games. Basically because both teams are capable of putting up points in each of the games.


Flordia State at Miami (over 48.5) @ 1.90

Texas A&M at Arkansas (over 62 ) @ 1.90

Tennessee at Georgia (over 48) @ 1.90


Stake 15 on each