Horseboxos road to profit - NCAA/NFL

El Horseboxo

After getting burned yesterday on all fronts i needed a big win today. And hopefully i'm well on my way. Just the one bet so far today.

Chelsea to win and Anelka to score anytime @ 4.00

Stake 100

Forgot to post it in here but i put it in the main football forum. It was a combination of the footy tipsters view and also that Anelka would be taking the peno's and has a good record in Europe. Hopefully Chelsea can hold on to the win.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68586558&postcount=32




Balance 3186

El Horseboxo

2 bets from last night that i never posted up.


Tours vs Reims (Tours to win and Guie to score anytime) @ 2.80

Stake 20



Sedan v Troyes @ 2.10

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

No winners in the above 2 bets. Can't believe Guie hasn't scored in the last 2 games. Probably because i have money on him. He's scored in every game that Tours have score in up till i bet on him last week. Bet he'll bag a hat trick the weekend. Anyways Chelsea held on and won 2-0 with Anelka scoring so that was a nice payout.

Balance 3546
Profit 2996

El Horseboxo

Looking at some bets. Just picking a bunch i liked a first look. Haven't taken any of them.

Barca vs Copenhagen (Both to score) @ 2.25
Barca vs Copenhagen (Over 3.5 goals) @ 2.10
Barca vs Copenhagen (Messi to score 2 goals or more) @ 2.70


Twente vs Werder Bremen @ 2.37
Twente vs Werder Bremen (Ruiz to score anytime) @ 2.62
Twente vs Werder Bremen (Pizarro to score anytime) @ 2.80


Schalke 04 v Hapoel Tel Aviv (Huntelaar to score anytime) @ 1.90
Schalke 04 v Hapoel Tel Aviv (Both teams to score) @ 1.90
Schalke 04 (Handicap draw -1.0) v Hapoel Tel Aviv @ 3.30


Lyon v Benfica (Lopez to score anytime) @ 2.40
Lyon v Benfica (Cardozo to score anytime) @ 3.20
Lyon v Benfica (Total goals 2 or 3) @ 1.90
Lyon v Benfica DNB @ 2.62


Rangers v Valencia @ 2.10
Rangers vs Valencia (Valencia to win & Aduriz to score anytime) @ 3.60
Rangers vs Valencia (Under 1.5) @ 2.87
Rangers vs Valencia (First goal after 27 minutes) @ 3.60
Rangers vs Valencia (HT/FT - Draw/Valencia) @ 3.60


Man Utd (-2 AH) vs Bursapor @ 2.30
Man Utd vs Bursapor (Hernandez insurebet first scorer) @ 2.87
Man Utd vs Bursapor (Over 3.5 goals) @ 2.25
Man Utd vs Bursapor (Man Utd to win both halves) @ 2.50
Man Utd vs Bursapor (No Bursapor goalscorer) @ 1.83
Man Utd vs Bursapor (Man Utd winning at 30 mins) @ 2.10
Man Utd vs Bursapor (Man Utd -4 corner handicap) @ 2.10
Man Utd vs Bursapor (Man Utd to score 3 or more goals) @ evens


Inter Milan vs Spurs (Under 2.5 goals) @ evens
Inter Milan vs Spurs (Eto'o to score anytime) @ evens
Inter Milan vs Spurs (Under 2.5 goals) @ evens

El Horseboxo

Rangers v Valencia @ 2.10

Rangers looked poor against Bursapor in their last home game and they only managed a 1-0 win against a team which looked even worse than them. Rangers have been conceding in most games in the SPL and have had to chase goals being down in a few games. But Valencia look too organized and have too much talent in the midfield and up front to give away stupid goals. Rangers can be dangerous on the counter but are missing some players. Don't think Valencia will destroy them but i expect a comfortable enough win. After losing to Man Utd in a very undeserved fashion in the last round they should be out to bring the 3 points back to Spain so i can see a focused and clinical performance from the visitors tonight.

Stake 50



Inter Milan vs Spurs (Eto'o to score anytime)@ evens

Eto'o has been in great form and scoring in most games. With Milito out he gets to play up front as the main striker instead of his wider role that he is pushed out to. He should also take the peno's if there are any. If Inter score tonight he should be a favorite to be the one who put it in the net.

Stake 30



Barca vs Copenhagen (Both to score) @ 2.25

The Copenhagen manager has said they are playing great and that they will not come to Camp Nou to just sit back and defend. So they will be coming with an attacking approach. Most likely on the counter. They've pace in their squad and Barca are susceptible to long balls up front as they push up their back line pretty high with Alves and Maxwell making runs down the wing and Puyol and Pique liking to go up for frees and corners. Barca are also missing Valdés in goal and Pinto steps in. Last time he played was against Sevilla in the first leg of the Spanish super cup and he let a few past him. Copenhagen are a good organized team and i can see them scoring in a similar fashion as Rubin Kazin did against Barca in last seasons CL.

Stake 30


Barca vs Copenhagen (Over 3.5 goals) @ 2.10

I have confidence in this for pretty much the reason i expect both teams to score. I expect Copenhagen to score on the counter and if what their manager said is correct the will probably try attack when in possession as it is within their nature. This should leave them exposed at the back and also their defense doesn't face players of Barca's class week in week out and should be put to the test tonight. Barca have been creating chance after chance this season but they haven't been capitalizing on them. Listened to an interview today and they are well aware of this. So they know their problem and they are more than capable in correcting it. And i just hope it's tonight.

Stake 20

Scoobydooo

Any college football fancies for tonight ?

El Horseboxo

I was too hung over to check out any bets today after 2 late nights in a row. And it's typical that it's on a day where a few of the teams i liked midweek are up on their handicaps. Ohio, Virginia tech, Arkansas. Later on i might have a look at

Tulane At UTEP (-10)
San Diego State (-23.5) At New Mexico
Alabama (16.5) At Tennessee
Oklahoma (-3) At Missouri (I'd much prefer this at -2.5 though, covers winning by a FG)
Wisconsin At Iowa (-6.5)
Texas A&M (-14) At Kansas
LSU At Auburn (Under 51.5)
Central Michigan At Northern Illinois (-10)
New Mexico State At Idaho (-24)

El Horseboxo

In play bet.

Giants (+11) at Cowboys @ 1.90

Stake 30

El Horseboxo

Hadn't bet in a while or updated my balance. Had a slight loss on my last bets but if i had of played my ncaa and nfl bets this weekend i would have been up a fair whack. Was out from Thursday till Saturday and was too hungover to bother gambling.

Balance 3453.50

El Horseboxo

Giants win straight up. Really should have went overs too as i fancied that heavily due to the new dangerous hit rules in effect. This weekend was a monster one for points and the overs. No player wants to get fined in excess of 50K and be suspended so it's affecting some hits and teams are moving down the field easier. Will be interesting if the bookies increase the line totals for this coming weekend.

Balance 3510.77
Profit 2960.77


LA Tech at Boise (-22 first half handicap) @ 1.80

Stake 40

LA Tech at Boise (-37.5) @ 1.83

Stake 20

LA Tech at Boise (Over 64) @ 1.83

Stake 20

Boise will want to blow this team away to show people they are the real deal. Their 6-0 record is often overlooked due to them being in the weal WAC. Probably won't do much for their BCS standing but it will stop people saying they are struggling to win. It's the opening game of the week and is on ESPN (In the US) so all eyes will be on it. And Boise should make a statement and look to score on every possession early on in the game. I can see a 28+ lead by half time. And even overall they should cover the -37.5 spread as they most likely will go for style points hoping to affect the coach's polls and the AP. They have covered the spread in every home game this season and LA Tech have been allowing huge yards away from home. They allowed over 500 total offensive yards in the last game. Boise sat back last week with just 7 points in the second half and if they do the same tonight the overs should be very possible as LA Tech could get at least 2 td's. The line is set at over 64. If LA Tech manage to cover their spread in this game the overs should most likely happen.

El Horseboxo

The overs was the only bet that hit in the last one so a slight loss.

Balance 3467.44


Fla St at NC State

Gonna take Florida on the handicap i reckon at some stage. And what i wanted just happened. Didn't like the pre game -4 handicap. And just now Florida have gone 3 and out. So hopefully this NC drive lowers the handicap a bit. Ideally i'd be looking for -2.5. Will edit this post.

EDIT

Fla St (+1) at NC State

I didn't feel comfortable with the -4 bet and i had missed the line when it was -3.5. Even at that i wouldn't have had the cover of a field goal win or a push if they won by just a FG. So a lot happier i got the -1 in play as i feel Florida should win this game straight up. And if they are going to win it has to be by a point or more. So if they do win the worst that can happen is a push if it's just by the one point. NC are just too predictable and despite the 1 touch down lead at the moment i don't think they will threaten Florida's D all night. Ponder had apparently shaken the elbow injury and has been on fire in practice. Just hope he brings that into the game tonight. Although so far he hasn't inspired. Still early days.

Stake 37.44


EDIT

My bet didn't go through as the line changed while being confirmed. And i just took them at +1. Same stake.

board_stiff

El Horseboxo wrote: »

The overs was the only bet that hit in the last one so a slight loss.

Balance 3467.44


Fla St at NC State

Gonna take Florida on the handicap i reckon at some stage. And what i wanted just happened. Didn't like the pre game -4 handicap. And just now Florida have gone 3 and out. So hopefully this NC drive lowers the handicap a bit. Ideally i'd be looking for -2.5. Will edit this post.

They have gone 7 down. PP are giving them +1 now.

El Horseboxo

Fúcking hell i can see this night panning out already. Flordia beat themselves with penalties. 66 yards wiped out so far including a td. I hate lack of discipline.

NaiveMelodies

Penalties absolutely killing them, very annoying.



Nice turnaround, if they can keep their discipline should win, plus 1 seems safe anyway!

El Horseboxo

Yeah they are beginning to look like the team i expected to show up. Hopefully they bring the momentum back into the second half.

El Horseboxo

Bullshít call. His arm was going forward.

NaiveMelodies

Very annoying, still confident though!

Or not.. how the **** did he not catch that

El Horseboxo

They'd wanna wake up in this half. Took them a while to get going in the first so better just be a repeat scenario.

Peyton Manning

Pathetic defence

Edit: Who hacked into my account and said that??? :pac:

NaiveMelodies

Ah **** it

Peyton Manning

*****

El Horseboxo

Nearly smashed up my computer after the end of that game. What a bunch of fúcking wasters. Given the way their D played i was sitting there wondering if they could stop NC in 50 seconds from going back up the field for a TD and then they just hand them the game. Ponder you stupid fúck. With 1 timeout left you should have ran the ball and got the clock rolling. No balls.

El Horseboxo

Balance 3430

Too lazy to research my own bets today. Mainly due to a lack of interest in gambling lately and the fact that i had too much to drink last night. So i'm just gonna follow Archi today with his NFL bets for the most part. Changed some slightly due to line movement and not getting the same handicaps he got.

Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Stake 20

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals - Over 44.5
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Stake 20

Green Bay Packers (+6.5) @ New York Jets
Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) @ New England Patriots

Stake 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers (+3) @ St Louis Rams

Stake 20

Jaguars @ Cowboys - Over 42
Packers @ Jets - Under 42

Stake 20

Panthers @ Rams - Over 37
Vikings @ Patriots - Over 44

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

Jesus shut the fúck up Michelle Williams you annoying retarded dope. Glad i didn't shell out for a ticket for the game over in London. The atmosphere seems shíte.

El Horseboxo

Hit 2 out the 6 of Archi's bets that i took. In fairness it should have been 3 because i didn't take the Dolphins at scratch as i prefered the + handicap that Archi got. But thanks to line movement that was no longer available and i went for the overs instead. Went under though. Anyways minute profit so all is good.


And just have a double tonight at small stakes.

Golden State Warriors at LA Lakers (-3 1st quarter) @ 1.83
Steelers at Saints (Mendenhall over 78.5 rushing yards) @ 1.83

Golden State are missing Curry who is probably their best player averaging around 20 points a game. GSW aren't the best road team and LA at home always come out strong. So i expect them to be more than 3 up at the end of the 1st.

Saints with some defensive injuries which is a big blow for them. They are strong on the passing defense but have been giving up yards on the ground. Mendenhall shared a lot of the carries last week but reckon he should have a heavier workload this week. If he gets over 15 carries i'm hopeful he should hit over 78.5 against a weakend Saints D.

Stake 15.96

Balance 3440

El Horseboxo

Lakers roll in the first quarter but Mendenhall falls 8 yards short of the target. I was unlucky on that one as Moore and Redman took a share of his carries in the first quarter. He ended up with just 15 carries. Ideally i wanted around the 17 mark.

El Horseboxo

A double i fancy for tonight in the soccer.

FC Nordsjaelland v Odense (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72
Blackpool v West Brom (Both to score) @ 1.53

Total odds 2.65

Nords and Odense just played in the cup and that game produced 5 goals. Which has been reflective of both teams seasons as they still retain the ability to score but neglect defending. Most of Nords home games have gone over while Odense hasn't had an unders game in their last 5 league games. Strecthes back 7 games if you include all competition. Given current form Nords should probably win this game on paper. But Odense are a good team and just haven't found their footing this season and i expect them to score tonight. I'm expecting a 2-1 or 2-2 finish.

I was tempted to take the overs in the Blackpool vs WBA game at slightly better odds but i went with both to score in what i consider a safer bet as i don't see either side winning 3-0 which would bring in the overs. In my opinion if the overs is to hit it is gonna happen because both teams scored. They both play attacking football and have given some of the better teams are hard time due to their non defensive approach. So i expect an open game that probably should produce more than 2 goals but i'll use a bit more caution as a 1-1 wouldn't surpise me since a lot of people are on the overs.

Stake 20

El Horseboxo

And for the NFL game tonight between the Texans and Colts.

This game is hard to call as who will be a straight winner or who will cover their spread. So i'm going to avoid that market. If the Colts weren't so depelted on offense and they played to their capability i'd have to favor them though. But that's irrelevant tonight.

The Colts played this fixture in Houston in week 1 and the Texans blew them away with their running game even though the scoreline made it look closer than it was. Foster posted up 231 yards and 3 TD's. Both teams haven't really performed to their expectations this season with the Texans being the more disappointing. They can be explosive on offense but just don't have a secondary to speak of and are allowing an average of 306 yards through the air per game. This is a statistic you really do not want to have against Peyton Manning who has put up 300 yards against much better teams.

Colts have lost Clark for the season, Collie for a few weaks and both Addai and Brown are banged up which affects their run game. Brown is expected to come back so he should share whatever Manning doesn't decide to throw with Hart who may have his first career start. Given how bad Houston's pass defense is and Indy's injuries to the RB's i expect very little output from their running game. Besides Houston's rush D isn't too bad and Peyton will give Clark and Collie's replacements their chance. He has a way of brining the best out in players. But Wayne and Garcon will need to step up big time. Wayne is a favorite red zone target but hasn't landed a TD in 4 games. And given tonights circumstances i feel he has a high probabilty of pulling one down in the end zone. Garcon is hit and miss in my books. He can make one great catch and then drop a simple one. However Indy is off a bye week. They knew what injuries they had and will have worked them into their game plan. So i think both Wayne and Garcon have a great chance of putting 6 on the board as they know what rests on their shoulders tonight.

I'm writing Houston of on D and just gonna focus on their offense which will be lead by Foster on the ground and Johnson through the air. Johnson looks to have shaken off his injury and had 2 big weeks before his bye week. In which one was against the stingy Giants D. The Colts are allowing an average of 207 passing yards per game and Johnson is one of the best WR's in the NFL and should record his 3rd big game in a row. The Colts have struggled on rush defense and Foster also has the set up for a big game. Schuab is also a very capable QB and has been putting up good figures despite some of the Texans results.

Given the above i am expecting a shoot out. In other words a high scoring game. If one team wants to win this i reckon they will have to put up 30+ points. I also see this game being close which also supports my reasoning for over 51.5 points. So from all of the above i have went with the following bets.


Wayne anytime TD @ 1.90
Garcon anytime TD @ 2.20
Johnson anytime TD @ 2.25

Stake 15 each


Manning over 300.5 yards @ 1.83
Foster over 90.5 yards @ 1.83

Stake 20 each


Over 51.5 points @ 1.83

Haven't taken the overs yet. May wait for an in play bet.

EDIT

Took the overs in play at over 48.5. So 7 TD's in the game with good PAT's.

Stake 15

El Horseboxo

The above double came through today. Very lucky in the WBA game as they were down to 9 men. So happy with that one.

Some of the basketball games interest me as well.

Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings (Over 206) @ 1.90

This has been at 208.5 all day and only fell down by 2.5 points recently which shows there must be money coming in on the unders. But i'm happy with that as looking at the stats i think this one has a good change of going over. Both teams are crap on D and can rack up the buckets. Also fancy the Kings to cover the spread at home.

Stake 15


San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers (Under 195) @ 1.90

The Spurs defense should be able to keep the Clippers who are bad on offense to a low enough score. While the Spurs offense is incosistent at best. This bet really depends on what Spurs O turns up tonight. If it's the one i expect this game should fall close to but short of the line.

Stake 10


Portland Trail Blazers (+1) At Chicago Bulls @ 1.90

The Bulls are a new team from players to managament and they just haven't clicked yet in my eyes. They are pretty thin and don't have a strong bench. Even there starters would be bench players for some of the better teams. Last night the Bulls were down heavily to a bad Pistons team and they somehow managed to come back. They looked like the used a lot of energy trying to get that win. While the Trail Blazers have been crusing beating teams without really giving it their all. Portland are the more rounded team and if Miller and Camby turn up tonight and keep Noah in check the Bulls should be beaten.

Stake 20


Balance 3362.96 (130 in play)

El Horseboxo

Gotta love that. Back to back TD's from people i have money on. Also a double edged sword as it helps my overs bet too. And Foster is only 15 yards away from his target. He should get that in 3 more carries. Looking like the Colts game will make up for what seems to be a Portland loss to one of the best Bulls performances of the past 10 years if what i'm reading on forums is anything to go by.