Fowler87's log season 10/11

Fowler87

Thought Id get in the act of setting up a log for the season underway proper tomorrow. Been on these forums a while now and only set up my 1st one during the WC which I did make a profit at the end after initially losing winnings after the 2nd group stage games. I suppose thats the advantage of having a log, you can learn from your mistakes:pac:

Anyway, I'll focus more or less on the football/soccer with the odd GAA bet thrown in along the way... hope to make some sort of profit at the end of the season and hopefully a couple of punts I go for, will bring success to myself and a few others... don't trust me on everything though:D Il try to keep a structure with reasoning to some of my bets also... here we go then!

Pre Tournament bets

2.00: Arteta Everton Top Goalscorer @ 25/1 (PP)
2.00: Feillani to commit the most fouls in premier league @ 16/1 (PP)
3.00: Beckford to score no goals @ 12/1 (PP)
3.00: No premier league manager to be sacked @ 18/1 (PP)
1.50: Joe Cole to win PFA player of year award @ 33/1 (PP)

20.00: Liverpool top four finish @ 13/8 (PP)
4.00: Liverpool Outright @ 12/1 (however unlikely that might be:pac:) (PP)
1.50: Arsenal and RVP top scorer doubles @ 40/1 (PP)
4.00: Torres top goalscorer @ 11/2 (Double odds if he hits 30+) (PP)

2.50: Kris Boyd (Boro) top goalscorer @ 15/2 (PP)
1.50 e/w: Jay Bothroyd (Cardiff) top goalscorer @ 40/1 (PP)
1.00 e/w: Rob Earnshaw (Forest) top goalscorer @ 16/1 (PP)

6.00 trixie - Promotion (PP)
Bradford @ 2/1
Swindon @ 4/1
Nottm Forest @ 5/2

14.00: 1 euro e/w patent To win outright... (Bet 365)
Nottm Forest @ 15/2
Swindon @ 14/1
Bradford @ 10/1

1.50 e/w: Wolfsburg to win Bundesliga outright @ 20/1 (Bet 365)

coughlan08

nice picks,had some of them in mind myself,never have the patience for season long bets though..
slow and steady wins the race..:pac:

best of luck,

Fowler87

Aug 14 selections

5.00: Over 2.5 goals accum... returns 114.35
Doncaster v Bristol City @ 11/10
Sheffield United v QPR @ 6/5
Millwall v Hull @ 6/5
Leicester City v 'Boro @ 5/4

4.50: 75c 1st scorer doubles from...
S Fletcher (Wolves) @ 6/1
B Sharp (Doncaster) @ 4/1
C Evans (Sheff Utd) @ 5/1
Mauro Boseilli (Wigan) @ 11/2

5.00: Chelsea, Bolton, Wolves to keep clean sheets @ 11/1 (Paddy Power FFS special)

3.00: To Win accum... returns 59.00
Derby @ 11/8
Bolton @ 13/10
Wigan @ 4/5
Doncaster @ evens

3.50: G. Bale AT scorer @ 5/1

2.00: 2 or more goals double... returns 132.00
Boseilli @ 11/1
Lampard @ 9/2

4.50: 30c correct score lucky 15...
Aston Villa 0-1 West Ham @ 10/1
Spurs 2-2 Man City @ 12/1
Blackburn 1-2 Everton @ 17/2
Wigan 3-1 Blackpool @ 16/1

coughlan08

will you be working off a points system or cash..what kind of a starting balance will you have...

Fowler87

Probably wont stick to a starting balance, just basically any bets I make, I will log along with whatever stakes. I normally bet around 20/30 max a week so whatever returns I get back Il just state it too.

As you can see I like a bit of variety,for instance during the WC I did ok with the scorers, scorecasts and correct score bets but I will follow the tips from yourself, pyro, headshot etc. during the season cos at the end of the day, a few heads are better than one:pac:

Fowler87

19 August Europa League Qualifiers

-1 handicap accumulator
CSKA Moscow @ 5/6 (v Anortosis Famagusta)
Liverpool @ 4/6 (v Trabzonspor)
Galatasaray @ 5/6 (v Karpaty Lyiv)
Villareal @ 4/6 (v Dnepr Mogilev)
5 euro to win 41.68

h/t Liverpool 1-0 ft Liverpool 2-0 @ 9/1
4 euro

Scorecast: G. Johnson and Livberpool 2-0 @ 66/1
1.50 euro

Fowler87

After timing I know:o but placed a fiver yesterday evening on the Newcastle game after seeing the ridiculous odds on Newcastle at home against Villa who had an overrated win against a well, crap West Ham team last week.

Expected a fair few goals so I went for the gamble of over 4.5 goals and with every Newcastle attack normally going through Andy Carroll (as proved right today:pac:) I went for the high odds of 16/1 on him getting two or more.. happy days:) Evidence below..

Carroll bet.png

Newc v Villa over 4.5 goals.png

Fowler87

23 August Champions League Qualifiers

10 euro: Suarez insurebet 1st scorer @ 23/10

10 euro: Over 2.5 goals accumulator

Ajax v Dynamo Kiev @ 4/6
Copenhagen v Rosenburg @ 4/5
Spurs v Young Boys @ 4/9

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

23 August Champions League Qualifiers

10 euro: Suarez insurebet 1st scorer @ 23/10 (win)

10 euro: Over 2.5 goals accumulator

Ajax v Dynamo Kiev @ 4/6
Copenhagen v Rosenburg @ 4/5
Spurs v Young Boys @ 4/9

BET STAKES: 20.00
RETURNS: 33.00

Fowler87

26 August midweek games (inc Europa qualifiers and Brazil league)

Fourfold... 5 returns 35

Austria Vienna (v Aris) @ 4/5
Over 2.5 goals (Citeh match) @ 1/2
Over 2.5 goals (Villa match) @ 8/11
Palmeiras (v someone:pac:) @ 1/2 (taking the expert view of HS on this one!)

Double... 1.50 returns 21

Ireland (AT) @ 5/2
J. Cole (AT) @ 3/1

2.50: Scorecast; JC 1st goal in 2-1 Liverpool win @ 50/1

2.50: Dani Pacheco Insurebet 1st Goalscorer @ 13/2

IN PLAY: 10.50

Fowler87

28 August (weekend league fixtures)

7.50:
AT scorer double;
Malouda @ 6/5, Crouch @ 10/11 .... to win 24.00

5.00:
Blackpool and Fulham Draw @ 23/10
Newcastle and Wolves Draw @ 9/4
Nottm Forest @ 5/6 (v Norwich) .... to win 158.00
Millwall @ 4/6 (v Coventry)

2.50:
Chelsea 0-0 HT 3-0 FT (v Stoke) @ 25/1

1.00:
Lennon to score 2 or more (v Wigan) @ 14/1

4.00:
Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool to keep clean sheets @ 4/1

IN PLAY: 20.00

Fowler87

30 August (La Liga)

3.50: Reyes AT scorer @ 10/3
1.50: Scorecast: Forlan and 3-0 Athleti win @ 25/1

IN PLAY: 5.00

Fowler87

3 September Euro 2012 Qualifiers

3.00: Jagielka AT scorer @ 10/1 (PP)
2.00: Jagielka 1st scorer @ 25/1 (PP)
5.00: Radomir Djalavic AT scorer @ 21/10 (Bet 365)
* Reasoning by bettingzone.co.uk

5.00: 50c correct score doubles>>

England 3-1 Bulgaria @ 10/1
Andorra 0-2 Russia @ 11/2
Luxembourg 0-3 Bosnia @ 11/2
Liechtenstein 0-5 Spain @ 6/1
San Marino 0-3 Holland @ 11/2

2.00: Scorecast; Doyle 1st scorer and 1-1 draw v Armenia @ 35/1

IN PLAY: 17.00

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

3 September Euro 2012 Qualifiers

3.00: Jagielka AT scorer @ 10/1 (PP)
2.00: Jagielka 1st scorer @ 25/1 (PP)
5.00: Radomir Djalavic AT scorer @ 21/10 (Bet 365)
* Reasoning by bettingzone.co.uk

5.00: 50c correct score doubles>>

England 3-1 Bulgaria @ 10/1
Andorra 0-2 Russia @ 11/2
Luxembourg 0-3 Bosnia @ 11/2
Liechtenstein 0-5 Spain @ 6/1
San Marino 0-3 Holland @ 11/2

2.00: Scorecast; Doyle 1st scorer and 1-1 draw v Armenia @ 35/1

IN PLAY: 17.00

BET RETURNS: 21.00

Russia and Bosnia match won me a double (shame Spain couldnt put another away). Profit is a profit though:) Il stay away from betting zone in future though :pac:

Fowler87

5 September (All Ireland Hurling Final)

5.00: Eddie Brennan @ 7/4 AT goalscorer

Fantastic price considering his goal scoring pedigree and with no soccer of interest tomorrow, Il have a punt in the hurling.

IN PLAY: 5.00

Fowler87

7 September Euro 2012 Qualifiers

Double chance treble on...

Belarus @ 2/5 (v Romania home)
Montenagro @ 11/10 (v Bulgaria away)
Armenia @ 13/10 (v Macedonia away)

All three teams performed well in their last game with Armenia (the big minnows) narrowly losing in the last few mins against Ireland. However, Macedonia are weaker outfit to Armenia, they wont have too far to travel and so Id expect Armenia to get something out of the game.

Belarus, as always have been decent in defence and plucky team to break down with good ball players, ie Hleb, Kisyclak and their super win over the hopeless French away was a big confidence boost to their qualifying campaign. With home advantage to boot, I can see another strong showing against Romania tonight.

Finally Montenagro with good players in Vucinic and Dalovic could shock Bulgaria tonight who were blitzed by England in Wembley. Since Berbatov' retirement, alot of their play relies on the two Petrovs. However both players are lacking form and it showed they can be found out in defence by tricky and imposing attacking moves. Montengaro will be underestimated again but they have a resilient team and grabbing draw/win from the game looks on the cards.

IN PLAY: 5.00

Fowler87

5.00: Insurebet 1st scorer double on...

Dzeko @ 7/2
Huntellar @ 6/4

Going against the French tonight, Bosnia are a good side and Dzeko a powerhouse up front with alot of play going through him. With this experimental defence, Id expect Dzeko to cause havoc. And with Huntellar, on the back of a hat trick, hes likely to be buzzing against a weak Finland team who AFAIK had Hyypia sent off in their last match.

EDIT: Well the Dutch have ruined that bet! De Jong after 7 mins :pac: After seeing that French weak defence line up (bar Lloris and Sagna), Ive gone for Dzeko again, so confident hel score.

20 euro AT scorer @ 13/10

IN PLAY: 25.00

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

7 September Euro 2012 Qualifiers

Double chance treble on...

Belarus @ 2/5 (v Romania home)
Montenagro @ 11/10 (v Bulgaria away)
Armenia @ 13/10 (v Macedonia away)

All three teams performed well in their last game with Armenia (the big minnows) narrowly losing in the last few mins against Ireland. However, Macedonia are weaker outfit to Armenia, they wont have too far to travel and so Id expect Armenia to get something out of the game.

Belarus, as always have been decent in defence and plucky team to break down with good ball players, ie Hleb, Kisyclak and their super win over the hopeless French away was a big confidence boost to their qualifying campaign. With home advantage to boot, I can see another strong showing against Romania tonight.

Finally Montenagro with good players in Vucinic and Dalovic could shock Bulgaria tonight who were blitzed by England in Wembley. Since Berbatov' retirement, alot of their play relies on the two Petrovs. However both players are lacking form and it showed they can be found out in defence by tricky and imposing attacking moves. Montengaro will be underestimated again but they have a resilient team and grabbing draw/win from the game looks on the cards.

IN PLAY: 5.00

RETURNS: 33.81

Thankfully my treble came in and went nicely to plan. Confusion near the end of the Armenia with the away side taking the lead only for Macedonia to equalise straight after. Few sites had it down as a win for each team at ft so a draw is the fair result:pac:

Unfortunately my scorer bets didnt come in. I think I jinked Dzeko cos along with Bosnia in general they were woeful. France not much better but the frogs upped their tempo 2nd half and secured a comfortable 2-0 win. Made a small profit anyhow,but Il try not to get as greedy again:pac:

Fowler87

September 11 (Weekend league fixtures)

2.00: Win accum... returns 42
Norwich @ 10/11 (v Barnsley)
Forest @ 11/10 (v Millwall)
Rochdale @ evens (v Walsall)
Swindon @ 13/8 (v Soton)

4.00: Over 2.5 goals accum... returns 40
Wigan v Sunderland @ 11/10
West Brom v Spurs @ evens
N'castle v B'Pool @ 4/6
Arsenal v Bolton @ 4/9

2.00: To score in both halves treble... returns 57
Sunderland @ 10/3
Newcastle @ 6/5
Spurs @ 2/1

3.50: Fabregas, Malouda and Carroll all to score @ 8/1

3.00: Insurebet 1st scorer double.. returns 58.50
Boseilli @ 11/2
Carroll @ 2/1

2.00: Insurebet 1st scorer double... returns 72
Arteta @ 9/1
Fabregas @ 13/5

2.00: Arteta to score 2 or more @ 60/1

6.50: Everton beat Man United @ 8/1 (Enhanced Special)


IN PLAY: 25.00

Fowler87

That didnt go too well:rolleyes: I suppose the Everton Arteta bet was unlucky... why couldnt he have finished that 1st half chance:( and Forest did miss a penalty to **** up my win accum, other than that the rest were pretty meh. Along with my fantasy football team it was a fail on this weekends fixtures. Ah well, ya win some ya lose some:pac:

Fowler87

14 September (Champions League Proper 1st round)

8.00: Treble on..
Bursapor DC @ 1/2
Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Lyon v Schalke)
Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (Bremen v Spurs)

12.00: Double on..
United -1 @ 8/15
Barca -1 @ 2/5

Treble bet is on the basis that Bursapor are the new up and coming team in Turkey proven by their title win last year. They dont concede many goals, especially at home and have the knack of getting a result when it matters most (ie last weekends win) due to their never give up attitude. Great form recently, and Valencia although not as weak as many people think after the loss of Silva and Villa, will find the cauldron atmosphere intimidating and Turkish team on their debut in the champions league a difficult team to beat.

Went for overs in both the Lyon/Schalke and Werder/Spurs games on the primary reasons that all teams prefer an attack minded game with defending and organisation not as important in their play. Lyon and Werder have perhaps IMO the strongest defensive set up, however they are both at home against attack minded away opponents who will fancy their chances on winning the game too.

And although Spurs are missing Defoe, Pav, Werder Bremens last 5 matches have produced 4+ goals bar the great result away to Bayern last weekend so a positive match from both sides will be hopefully be played out. Spurs are missing the dependable (but sometimes erratic) Gomes in goal, replaced by the rusty Cudicini, Dawson at cente back and probably playing Bale at left back who will leave gaps in defence for Marin to exploit during his rampaging runs.

Lyon and Schalke have also been leaking goals in their respective leagues and find themselves low down the table so goals should be aplenty.

If treble doesnt come to plan Il have the -1 double to fall back on... hopefully:pac::pac: But realistically United and Barca should have no bother brushing aside weak opposition at home even if they have had a few scares recently. But IMO theyl sort themselves out tonight especially with the likes of Rooney, Villa, Messi, Nani, Scholes, Iniesta etc.. against two teams from two terrible leagues

Fowler87

15 September (Champions League)

Said wasnt gonna log the Fab bet as it was a free bet but Im might as well anyhow...

Fab 2 or more.png

And with 20 or 25 mins left I couldnt resist the In play goals bet and thankfully it paid off... just placed the second the ball hit off Velas foot to make it 5!! What a performance by Fabregas! Didnt get the hat trick but he was immense... someday Liverpool will have a player like that again:pac:

Arsenal over 5.5 in play (v Braga).png

Done all right in my scorers bets looking back (especially 2 or more), might concentrate on them more from now on

Fowler87

17/18/19 September (league games)

5.00: Double AT scorer.... returns 50.00
Coppinger @ 21/10
Vaughan @ 9/4

AT scorers and James Coppinger (former Newcastle youth AFAIK) scored a hat trick in his last match against Norwich (all from play). Up against Leeds at home tonight in a local yorkshire derby.

Another player with a hat trick to his name is James Vaughan of C. Palace. This lad has always had promise and he broke his duck against Pompey to finish with a hat trick (again all from play). Another with confidence and Id imagine hel convert any chance he gets in his next match (v Burnley at home).

IN PLAY: 5.00

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

17/18/19 September (league games)

5.00: Double AT scorer.... returns 50.00
Coppinger @ 21/10
Vaughan @ 9/4

AT scorers and James Coppinger (former Newcastle youth AFAIK) scored a hat trick in his last match against Norwich (all from play). Up against Leeds at home tonight in a local yorkshire derby.

Another player with a hat trick to his name is James Vaughan of C. Palace. This lad has always had promise and he broke his duck against Pompey to finish with a hat trick (again all from play). Another with confidence and Id imagine hel convert any chance he gets in his next match (v Burnley at home).

IN PLAY: 5.00

Ah well stalemate it was 0-0 in a decent game in fairness but no goals! Just well I didnt put a single on Coppinger but still gonna have another punt on Vaughan for interests sake.

5.00: J. Vaughan AT scorer @ 9/4

Others for weekend are..

8.00: Win treble... returns 56
Chesterfield @ 4/5
Barnsley @ 11/10
Stoke @ 10/11

Barnsley great run of form these days, won last home games including a 5-2 win over leeds last time out after being 2-1 down. Other teams beaten by the tykes this season so far include Boro and Palace. And in Adam Hammill (why 'Pool let him go:() they have one of the top young players in the championship. Derby on the other hand are in disarry atm with only 1 point since their last win, against Leeds 1st day of season... and struggling for form against a team flying atm.

Chesterfield have brought their great home form into this season with 3 home wins but do struggle away. Former Irish striker John Sheridan is their manager and hel be confident of 3 points against relegation contenders Cheltenham town, who have in fairness been in good form but are poor away picking up 1 point on their travels..

Stoke, I believe will push on after the last gasp win over Villa on Monday night. New signing Jones is settling into the Britannia, and even though I dont rate him personally, he does have that Kevin Davies, Heskey style factor which suits Stokes direct style. Hammers are in for a relegation battle as Grant (who I hear is away tomorrow) is struggling to get his team to gel and most worryingly the defence is perhaps the weakest in the league.. goals from set pieces are near certainty tomorrow IMO

4.00: Double... returns 42
Blackburn/Fulham draw @ 9/4
W.Brom/Birm draw @ 9/4

After watching the Leeds-Doncaster derby ending goaless after a entertaining game and expecting goals, the Birmingham derby will probably be 4-4:pac: Either way, I think a draw is on the cards especially with a resilient Birmingham City who are good at closing out teams away from home.

Blackburn will expect to the win tomorrows match at home against Fulham side who normally dont do well on their travels. But this season they havent lossed away. They have better technical players in Dempsey, Gera, Murphy compared to the home team and although Blackburn could take the lead, Fulham under Blackburn former manager Hughes will have his team prepared to stop THE DELUSIONAL Allardyce who thinks he could win the champions league with a better team:pac: Score draw IMO.

Finally AT scorer treble on..

3.00: Arteta, Jones, Drogba @ 11/1

IN PLAY: 20.00

Fowler87

One final bet for today

5.00: -1 handicap double.. returns 54.00

Barnsley @ 3/1
Villa @ 17/10

Reasoning about Barnsley above, and as Im confident about Barnsley Ive added Villa who have thumped Bolton (who are missing main players in Cahill and Davies today) in their last few meetings at Villa Park. Another reasoning is that Ireland is back and I can see a high scoring win for Villa (13 goals in last 3 games against Bolton) as caretaker boss McDonald departs.

Stoke match ended a draw so that accum is a dud but Jones did score so my scorer accum is still active.

IN PLAY: 17.00

Fowler87

23/24 October 2010 - League Games

5.00: Chelsea, Wigan and Liverpool to all keep clean sheets @ 9/1

5.00: Forest(11/10) and Burnley(10/11) win @ 3/1

2.50: West Brom/Fulham(23/10) and Birmingham/Blackpool(5/2) draw @ 11.5/1

2.50: B.Sharp, C.Austin and G.Donnelly AT scorers @ 13/1

2.50: Drogba, VDV and Nzogbia AT scorers @ 13/1

5.00: Charlie Austin Insurebet 1st scorer @ 3/1

2.50: Clint Dempsey Insurebet 1st scorer @ 13/2

and finally...

1.00: A.Cole and S.Parker Insurebet 1st scorers @ 299/1:pac:

IN PLAY: 26.00
Returns: 10.00

For some reason PP made the clean sheet treble void, so I got my stake back along with the Austin bet who didnt score 1st :rollseyes:

Anyway Ive stuck 2 euro on 'Pool 2-0 Torres scorecast @ 18/1 tomorrow...
IN PLAY: 2.00

Fowler87

29 October 2010 (Weekend league games)

8.00: Win treble on... returns 40
Everton @ 4/7 (v Stoke)
QPR @ 5/6 (v Burnley)
Cardiff @ 8/11 (v Norwich)

5.00: Cesc Fabregas Insurebet scorer @ 3/1

2:00: Fabregas (3/1) and Dembele (4/1) Insurebet scorer double

5.00: Jay Bothroyd (6/4) and Jamie Mackie (7/4) AT scorer double

Following UnitedIrishMan on the treble and even though I said Id stay away from trebles, I think this one is great value.

Everton getting into great form against a Stoke side who are poor away plus they have injuries and fatigue from their midweek Carling Cup game going to ET.

QPR similar to Stoke, are up against a Burnley side who put everything into their midweek match with Villa but unfortunately lost in ET. Burnley will be lacking in confidence off the back of that spirited defeat plus they had a disatrous result against Reading last weekend. They're facing a top QPR team who themselves should be eager get back to winning ways after a few draws recently, so dont want to be playing catch up to joint top Cardiff who are probably the form team in the championship at the moment and are scoring goals for fun, they should have too much at home against Norwich.

If the above results do happen, Id expect the on fire Bothroyd and Mackie to end his goal drought tomorrow...

Ive gone for Fabregas to open the scoring tomorrow. Missing that pen will be in the back of his mind so he should score, preferably 1st;) against a West Ham team on the verge of going down this year IMO. I doubled that with Dembele of Fulham because I think this lad is quality and similar to Fab hes back from injury and will be eager to get back to scoring ways.

IN PLAY: 20.00

Fowler87

28 October 2010- Prem games

Gonna start with a bank from now on using the points system..

Torres Insurebet @ 4/1 - 5 pts
Liverpool win @ 13/5 - 2 pts

In Play - 7 pts
Bank - 93 pts

Fowler87

4 December (League Games)

Insurebet 1st scorer double
Didier Drogba @ 2/1 (home v Everton)
Charlie Austin @ 7/2 (home v Sheff Wed)
4 pts

Both teams (Chelsea and Swindon) badly need the wins to get back to winning ways and I expect goals aplently, with likely scorers coming from each teams best players who normally have a high percentage of finding the net first.

One more Insurebet double for the day...

Nzogbia @ 6/1
Nasri @ 7/2
2 pts

In Play: 6 pts
Bank: 86 pts

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

4 December (League Games)

Insurebet 1st scorer double
Didier Drogba @ 2/1 (home v Everton)
Charlie Austin @ 7/2 (home v Sheff Wed)
4 pts

Both teams (Chelsea and Swindon) badly need the wins to get back to winning ways and I expect goals aplently, with likely scorers coming from each teams best players who normally have a high percentage of finding the net first.

One more Insurebet double for the day...

Nzogbia @ 6/1
Nasri @ 7/2
2 pts

In Play: 6 pts
Bank: 86 pts

Decent win today on the Drogba and Austin Insurebet scorer bet returning 54 pts from the 4pts stake. Shame the other one didnt come in even though it looked on after Nasri' opening goal, Nzogbia hiting the post too during the game:( Aw well profit is a profit:)

Returns: 54 pts
New Bank: 140pts

Fowler87

5 December (Prem league game)

WBA v Newcastle...
8 pts: A.Carroll Insurebet 1st scorer @ 9/2

100th game for Carroll and looking for his 10th goal of season. WBA have been conceding a fair few goals lately especially at home and can see Newcastle taking the lead (5 from 9 first goals) from Carroll.

In Play: 8 pts
New Bank: 132 pts