Hurricane DANIELLE

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

I haven't seen named storms on UKMO Fax charts before. Does that mean it would still be tropical then?

I'm not sure but I'd say so Maq, or else borderline tropical at least.

I have seen the odd named storm on the fax charts occassionally but they rarely stay named for long.

One example:

Su Campu

If it has a then it's still a hurricane, a means Tropical Storm. And if it has fronts coming out of it then it's neither, that warm front in the chart is technically not joined to it, but it's probably signalling the start of extra-tropical transition.

Su Campu

A nice video of Danielle, taken from the ISS, 220 miles overhead.

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

A nice video of Danielle, taken from the ISS, 220 miles overhead.

Cheers for posting that. Wonderful stuff. Looks so so peaceful from up there...

Su Campu

Danielle has weakened considerably this morning to 95kts as it goes through an eywall replacement cycle. It may not have enough time to recover before it hits the westerlies and cooler SSTs, so she may be on the slow decline from here.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280850
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH
RADII OF 20 AND 60 NM AROUND 0345 UTC...AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAD CONTINUED TO ERODE. THE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT AND A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE WILL
NOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
EYEWALL CYCLE COMPLETES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED
BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...DANIELLE
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS
INDICATED DURING THE TRANSITION PROCESS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AND SHOWED THAT DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345/8. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS
DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL SLOW
TEMPORARILY FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE FIRST UPPER-TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...AND THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS
ANOTHER TROUGH CAPTURES THE CYCLONE AND THEN PULLS IT SHARPLY
NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK WAS MADE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 28.6N 61.0W 95 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 30.2N 60.6W 95 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 33.2N 58.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 36.7N 56.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 38.9N 54.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 41.5N 47.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 47.1N 32.4W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 02/0600Z 54.5N 35.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN