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Hurricane EARL
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25-08-2010 3:39pm#1
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FORECASTER BROWN000
WTNT42 KNHC 260241
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO
BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14. EARL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR NOW...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.7N 33.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 35.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.5N 39.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 45.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.4N 51.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 56.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 60.5W 90 KT
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Earl has increased to 50kts despite some dry air entrainment and a bit of windshear. It should deepen properly as conditions become more favourable, and could cause some Tropical storm conditions in the Leewards late tomorrow and Monday.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 280857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
EARL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 C AND A
LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER BUT
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A 0413 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EARL
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. USING
A COMBINATION OF THIS OVERPASS AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 270/18. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL ON A RATHER
QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO NEAR A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS OF THE
TIMING...LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TRENDS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARL MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS AND
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NOW
BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND
POSSIBLY INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.7N 50.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.2N 58.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 18.2N 60.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 20.8N 64.2W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 67.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 69.5W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN0 -
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Conditions at 20:30Z
Thunderstorms in Guadeloupe and Antigua and Barbuda. Wind at Guadeloupe NW11 Gust 27kts, at A&B NW 8kts
[SIZE=-1]TFFR 292000Z 30011G27KT 270V330 0500 R11/1200V1700U
+TSRA FEW010CB SCT016 BKN040 25/24 Q1007 TEMPO
300 +TSRA=[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]TAPA 292000Z 30008KT 9999 -TSRA FEW010CB BKN014 OVC260
27/24 Q1006 RMK CB SSE-SW=[/SIZE]
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