Hurricane EARL

bakedbean

So, update from St. Kitts... Hurricane earl is approx 140km to our north. We had a large amount of thunder and lightning from 7pm local time last night. Heavy rain at 8pm then it went completely quiet for 2-3 hours. Rain and winds then went from 11pm through night.

The wind speeds seem to have increased dramatically from 7am this morning though locals we're in touch with say that's often the case when you're south of the hurricane. We also have egrets hiding in our front porch - i got a grainy picture of one.

stormyeye

some nasty weather approching puerto rico heres a link http://www.earthcam.com/usa/puertorico/islaverde/index.php?cam=oceanpark_str

Su Campu

Princess Juliana Airport, St. Maarten (the famous one where planes land right over the beach) is getting pretty dicey now, winds 41 gusting 59 knots. I wouldn't like to be trying to land there right now! :pac: The TAF calls for 1mile visibility in heavy thunderstorms.


TNCM 31200Z 27041G59KT 9999 BKN015TCU 28/25 Q0986
TNCM 301100Z 31036G53KT 9999 BKN017TCU 28/26 Q0988
TNCM 301000Z 34021G33KT 9999 RESH BKN017TCU 27/25 Q0991
TNCM 300900Z 33023G37KT 9999 -SHRA BKN017TCU 27/25 Q0994
TNCM 300800Z 34023G35KT 9999 -SHRA BKN017TCU 26/24 Q0996
TNCM 300700Z 35021G35KT 9999 BKN017TCU 28/25 Q0998
TNCM 300600Z 36017G29KT 330V040 9999 BKN017TCU 29/25 Q1001
TNCM 300500Z 01014KT 340V040 9999 BKN017TU 29/26 Q1002
TNCM 300400Z 36013KT 340V040 BKN017TCU 30/26 Q1004
TNCM 300300Z 01012G24KT 340V040 9999 BKN017TCU 29/26 Q1006 RETS/ CB/LTG DIST/ S AND W
TNCM 300200Z 36013G24KT 4000NE SHRA BKN015TCU SCT035 29/27 Q1006 LTG TO NE
TNCM 300100Z 35013KT 9999 SCT017TCU SCT035 29/26 Q1007 RERA/ LTG TO N

TAF
TNCM 301146Z 3012/3112 31036G53KT P6SM BKN017
TEMPO 3012/3016 VRB40G60KT 1SM +TSRA BKN005CB
FM301600 VRB30G50KT 3SM +TSRA BKN010CB
FM302000 01025G35KT P6SM VCTS SCT020CB BKN050
TEMPO 3020/3024 VRB18G25KT 4SM TSRA BKN017CB OVC040

maquiladora

Earl is now a Cat 3. NHC track has shiftly slightly to the west, no major changes in the forecast though.

maquiladora

12Z GFS brings Earl closer to the US east coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_090l.gif

maquiladora

Impressive hurricane

Deep Easterly

OK, who put Father Jack in charge of the Montserrat webcam?







way to go Padre!

maquiladora

...EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 30
Location: 19.3°N 64.7°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb

Sponge Bob

Wow :eek: at the pressure, if it slows down any when it makes landfall in the Carolinas and Virginia it will dump epic quantities of rain over the Eastern US as well as build an enormous battering storm surge right into the bays from Baltimore to Charlestown.

Deep Easterly

A handy site to track hourly progress of storms in the region:

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2010083019&lang=en&map=Caribbean

(click on 'larger map' for higher resolution)

maquiladora

18Z GFS rolling out and is taking Earl a bit further west. The last couple of runs have moved it further to the west, a worrying trend.

After T78 he starts to turn away from the coast just in time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_078l.gif

Radar :

maquiladora

LOCATION...19.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

maquiladora

06Z GFS has Earl curving up along the the US east coast just barely off shore, wow.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTNA078.html

Su Campu

24hr Rainfall totals to 00OTC and 06UTC this morning, respectively.

Monserrat had 7 inches up to 00UTC!

WolfeIRE

this sat image shows a line of potential storms following on earl's tail

http://www.sat24.com/homepage.aspx?page=world

maquiladora

9:00 AM AST Tue Aug 31
Location: 21.0°N 67.6°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb

Pressure rising slightly.

Iancar29

Earl Could be nasty for the east coast if they make a mistake in judging the power of it!

Gustov looks like its coming alive also!

Sat pic of Earl and Fiona

maquiladora

12Z GFS

Redsunset

Hurricane Earl is photographed by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010. Credit: Astro_Wheels/NASA

Stinicker

redsunset wrote: »

Hurricane Earl is photographed by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010. Credit: Astro_Wheels/NASA

Thats a monster!!

TheInquisitor

Am i the only person worried from the picture that the space station looks like its half made out of black bin liner??

ronnie3585

Looks more like a lagging jacket to me:pac:

On a more serious note, Earl is a monster!

maquiladora

First hurricane watches issued for US east coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/312106.shtml

lord lucan

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Am i the only person worried from the picture that the space station looks like its half made out of black bin liner??

That's a Russian Soyuz spacecraft. It's what the Russians send their cosmonauts to the ISS on. It stays mated to the ISS for each expedition crews tour of duty and they return home on her.:)

M.T. Cranium

The eye of cat-4 Earl is about to run over this data buoy:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

check out the history and then keep watching to see what happens as the eye moves across this position (about 07z) ... if it keeps transmitting, you'll see these very strong northerly winds drop off then resume from the SW as the eye moves away. Waves are about 40' at present.

The general thinking is that Earl is probably going to be a near miss for the east coast of the U.S. although tropical storm force northerly winds could hit Cape Hatteras on Thursday and cat-1 or 2 force winds could hit Cape Cod, Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard (islands) in Massachusetts on Friday ... these are summer resort areas and it's the very busy season with the Labor Day weekend coming up. Any shift of the track west, of course, will result in a much more serious impact (this storm is very similar in structure and general track to the 1821 hurricane that moved up the coast and hit NYC) ...

then there are more urgent concerns for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick in Canada, as they are directly in the path of the storm, but hopefully by then it will be down to about cat-1 maximum (still strong, but this region is similar to western Ireland in being frequently hit by 70-100 mph wind gusts, so most buildings are engineered for it).

It has turned out to be one of those classic storms in appearance.

DOCARCH

Evelyn on RTE forecast at 9.30 last night showed chart for next Wednesday saying there is a chance we might get remnants of Earl.

maquiladora

2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 1
Location: 23.5°N 70.7°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb

M.T. Cranium

The eye is right over that ocean buoy now (see my previous post) ... at 08z the report was winds NE 15-25 knots and pressure 942 mbs, temp 27, dp 26, and 48 ft waves -- the strong side of the eyewall is about to hit there, wonder if 41046 will survive that. :eek:

maquiladora

...EARL NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST...

Location: 24.0°N 71.2°W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb

maquiladora