Hurricane EARL

Su Campu

Thatnks for that link MT. Here's what happened at 41046, and it seems to have survived!

maquiladora

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL THREATENS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...25.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF
BOGUE INLET.

maquiladora

NHC update says Earl could regain Cat 4 strength again later today.

Su Campu

Data buoy 41047 is 124nm to the northeast of Earl, so it should be on the side of the strongest winds, albeit a bit far away from the centre. Currently reporting winds around 40kts, with pressure taking a nosedive.

Overheal

I was looking at the weather radar on my Firefox and saw a giant wall of clouds creeping in...

http://www.accuweather.com/us/satellite/vis/sc_/satellite.asp?play=true

... So I zoomed out and clicked Play

http://www.accuweather.com/us/satellite/ei/un/satellite.asp?play=true

That thing is a gigantic monster.

eep.

maquiladora

000
WTNT32 KNHC 012051
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

maquiladora

Looks to have taken a turn to the north, good news for US east coast.

Redsunset

This could hit hard anywhere up that coast.

maquiladora

2:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 28.6°N 74.4°W
Max sustained: 140 mph
Moving: NNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 930 mb

maquiladora

5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 29.3°N 74.7°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: NNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 928 mb

Earl is now the strongest hurricane in 3 years.

jimjo

Sorry to butt in lads but will this hurricane affect transatlantic flights over the weekend? Thought?

Iancar29

jimjo wrote: »

Sorry to butt in lads but will this hurricane affect transatlantic flights over the weekend? Thought?

Almost definitely, it was mentioned onnsky news I think. All depends we'd and when u are goin tough.

maquiladora

jimjo wrote: »

Sorry to butt in lads but will this hurricane affect transatlantic flights over the weekend? Thought?

Storm conditions are expected to make air travel difficult on the United States East Coast, forcing some delays and cancellations of flights at airports in the region, including at its New York hub at Newark Liberty International Airport. To avoid inconvenience, travelers may wish to delay commencement of their trip.

http://www.newsonnews.net/travel/4274-hurricane-earl-to-affect-us-east-coast-flights.html

Su Campu

Some nice surf showing up at Cape Hatteras this morning.



There are more webcams in the Webcam thread

Deep Easterly

Latest Update Thu, Sep 2, 2010, 8:00 AM EDT
Category Major Hurricane - Category 4
Wind Speed 145 mph
Pressure 932 mb
Latitude 30.1° N / Longitude 74.8° W
Movement NNW at 18 mph


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastir.html

maquiladora

Wilmington, NC Radar :

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

maquiladora

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...

11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.9°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 140 mph
Moving: N at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb

Su Campu

The beaches of Cape Hatteras are already flooding. Up to now this webcam showed the water up to about one third of the way up the picture, now it's practically covered.

M.T. Cranium

Here's the next nautical target for Earl ... Diamond Shoals buoy located just off to the southeast of that location pictured above.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025

I'm expecting the eye of Earl to go either right over this buoy, or just to the east, around 0300-0600 GMT. From there, the track seems to be just offshore then NNE towards Cape Cod and the islands of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket (which are swanky resort areas normally crowded with visitors on a weekend in late summer). The current GFS track goes right over Nantucket as a cat-2 storm, so that will be rather a strong impact even for this exposed island used to big winter storms and hurricanes. That visit should come around 2100-midnight Friday.

On Saturday, what's likely to be cat-1 Earl will move across western Nova Scotia into southeast New Brunswick making a final landfall near Saint John NB (not to be confused with Saint John's Newfoundland). The winds for these regions may be as strong as 60 knots gusting to 80 or 90, so a bit of damage potential there even though these are regions very similar to western Ireland well used to strong winds and with most buildings well above the tidal range even at its most extreme. The Bay of Fundy already has the largest tidal range in the world (about ten metres) and so nothing much is built anywhere near the beaches there as storm surges would be an annual or three-yearly event. And western Nova Scotia tends to be quite rocky and the shoreline towns are well up from sea level by the time you get past the wharves and marinas. Still, there are one or two villages that might need to be evacuated if this hurricane keeps its intensity and tracks in as expected.

M.T. Cranium

Radar display of the eye of now cat-2 Earl.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The eye may not be as open on the southeast side as this shows, the radar may not be catching returns from that part of the eyewall due to distance and angle.

We should have another radar capture about 18 hours from now from Chatham, MA.

Deep Easterly

Latest Update Fri, Sep 3, 2010, 2:00 AM EDT
Category Hurricane - Category 2
Wind Speed 105 mph
Pressure955 mb
Latitude 34.6° N / Longitude 74.3° W
Movement NNE at 18 mph

Weakening a little.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

John2009

Live chasecam from Jason Foster of Chasertv shooting from Cape Hatteras as the eye of hurricane Earl passes off the east coast of North Carolina

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/405_jason-foster.php

a quick video of hurricane Earl on radar

http://s979.photobucket.com/albums/ae273/John-2009_photos/?action=view&current=03-09-201009-35-12.mp4

maquiladora

Earl is now a Cat 1 hurricane.

M.T. Cranium

Here's the current radar from Long Island, NY showing the circulation of Earl. Expect the centre to move northeast just to the south of Nantucket around 0200-0400 GMT.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Later tonight (your time) I would advise navigating to the Boston radar for a better presentation (one jump northeast on the navigation display).

M.T. Cranium

The Canadian Hurricane Centre decided to keep designating Earl as a cat-1 hurricane for their warnings and this proved to be a fairly smart move because it has roared into Nova Scotia packing some very strong winds, maybe technically it is a tropical storm but then the public hearing that would go wave watching and there are places along that coast where the waves crash in 30-40 feet above the viewing areas in a big storm. The centre has come ashore on the south coast west of Lunenburg and winds all along the south central coast have been in the 45-65 mph range today.

Radar shows the centre quite nicely:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XGO

Central pressure around 960 mbs with a station on the coast at 14z reporting 963 mbs and a temporary drop in wind speed to 30 mph. Halifax is getting their strongest winds now and there are reportedly a few trees down and widespread power outages. Lucky this hit near low tide in a neap tide situation because the waves out in the Atlantic are running 42 feet well offshore and winds gusting to 64 knots at one offshore buoy.

Believe it or not I have now been up 24 hours solid watching this storm and a few other things, and must now make like the robots in the September forecast contest thread (see the post by DE) and control alt delete.

Redsunset

Satellite view of EARL hitting Canada and storms. Also look at sunday night and monday's heavy rain gathering momentum in the atlantic.

Redsunset

Earl was a good one.
Pic from NW

Su Campu

Here's a nice video of Earl hitting Nova Scotia

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5ee_1283695401