September 2010 Boards forecast contest

thetonynator

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Lol paruldry your post sums up Irish weather completely. What you've said in your post is Anything can happen further than 3.6 hours out!

FYP . . .:)

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Without a doubt it will be below 14.5 by the end of next week.

Pretty spot on call M.T. Up to midnight friday, we've seen a farily significant drop in the IMT, now down to 14.7c, and this could well fall to 14.5c or below over the next couple of days.

Graph charting IMT value since the 12th:



Quality comes out a bit rubbish on that Glickr animation program but will fiddle around with chart sizes for next time to make them easier to read.


All data c/o met eireann

Deep Easterly

IMT for the 18th of September was cool enough to shave 0.3c off the monthly value. Now down to 14.4c. Will probably hover around this figure over the next few days as warmer nights set in once again.

A quick look back at the weather this time last year:



Weak cold front approached the west coast on the 19th September 2009, which paved the way a period of mild, breezy weather:



but with very little rain as mean sea level pressure remained relatively high over the following few days.

pauldry

Still very mild or warm and will be so till Thursday. Sept average looks like it will end ABOVE 14c though this coming weekend could take it slightly below, next week is promised mild and changeable once more and then were into October by the end of that week

M.T. Cranium

After three full weeks ...

IMT sits at 14.6 C

rainfall for the past week only 51% of normal country-wide, bringing down the running average to 152%. Think of it closer to 140% when we factor in the stations that drop off from the ag-met report to the climate summary (one of those, Dublin A, is running above this average).

Sunshine for the week just ended was only 90% of normal, leaving the adjusted monthly figure at 102% of normal.

John mac

i think today (22 nd) will have pushed up the rain in the west. V heavy showers all day.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, the mercy rule is definitely looming now, there was an average of 15 mms of rain (a range from about 1 to 30) yesterday, and a day of that magnitude basically adds about 10% at this stage of the month. I could foresee another 20-30 mms of rain on average before the month ends, perhaps more, so the landing zone looks like 160-180 per cent of normal now.

Meanwhile the landing zone for temperature is probably about a degree below where we are now, in other words, about 13.5 C give or take. For sunshine I would estimate about 105% as the weekend alone will tend to hold the values above the trend line.

The big question for many of us will be how low the overnight readings drop on the weekend, because I think most of us need a frost to score any points in that category, while a few will be hoping against that to hold on to the points they might have.

By the way, it's that time of the month where I need some advice about a bonus question, let's say for the weekend of 9-10 October. Any ideas? Thanks in advance.

Lumi

October 9th is St.Denis's Day and has the following weather lore attached to it:
“A hard winter follows a fine St.Denis.”

I wonder if Denis will be as accurate as St. Swithin was??;)

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

By the way, it's that time of the month where I need some advice about a bonus question, let's say for the weekend of 9-10 October. Any ideas? Thanks in advance.

Irish Met Soc event at Valentia Island on that particular weekend M.T.

http://www.irishmetsociety.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=143:trip-to-valentia-october-2010&catid=50:field-trips&Itemid=115

Just one idea

IMT now on 14.7c!

M.T. Cranium

That sounds very interesting ... any of you people going to that?

I will think of some question around that information, thanks.

There will also be a special winter season forecast contest, details to be announced in October. I am researching what data would be available in real time so that the questions won't take a lot of work on my part to score later.

Any ideas on that gratefully considered. It would be snowfall data that might pose the biggest problem in terms of keeping track and verifying, I'm pretty familiar now with what's available for the main weather elements.

pauldry

Fair play to ya MT.

Ya never cease to amaze us.:o

M.T. Cranium

In case you hadn't spotted this, there is now a table posted in the annual scoring thread that deals with the scoring in terms of your best scores and not just the raw totals. This is in anticipation of the race developing under the rules we've adopted in 2010 that will take your ten best forecasts (out of however many you make). Unfortunately, Pauldry and one or two other enthusiastic participants entered too late in the year to make that possible but I'll continue to compare your average scores so you can see where you stand. The table is a bit complicated, pour yourself a nice beverage and crank up the tunes to help you get through it. :eek:

Deep Easterly

Was interesting to see when I was doing up the IMT stats that yesterday (the 24th September) had the coolest IMT daily mean for the month since I started archiving daily temperature reports from the Met Eireann website in 2008.

Below is a chart showing the combined daily mean temperature from met eireann stations Casement, Oak Park, Mullingar, Claremorris and Shannon Apt (i.e, the stations used for the IMT analysis) for September 2008, 2009 and 2010 up to the 24th:




Yesterday's daily mean of 9.4c was certainly the coolest September value since 2008. Although if I recall correctly, September 2007 may have had even cooler days towards the end of the month. Interesting to note that the current September can boast the highest daily mean since 2008 also!!


Despite the recent coolness, the current September is continuing to run way above average temperature wise, and certainly much warmer than either September 2008 and September 2009:



Current IMT temp up to the 24th stands at 14.4c, which is 1.5c above the 61-90 normal for the period 1st to 24th September. As can be seen, both the September 2008 and 2009 IMT for the same period were over a full degree lower and much closer to normal.

pauldry

The temperature seems to have reached a minimum of about 2c last night in Casement. Some of you might be able to confirm the exact figure but I think this is the coldest its been at any of the met stations so far in September. Dont think it will be that cold tonight as its cloudy in a lot of Ireland.

Su Campu

1.4C at Casement last night.

pauldry

1.4?!!:eek:

Wow I dont think that will be beat now.

My own predictions for the rest of the month for mins would be
Sat 25th 5c
Sun 26th 4c
Mon 27th 8c
Tues 28th 7c
Wed 29th 6c
Thurs 30th 8c

Rough guesses only but just my reasoning on why 1.4c prob wont be bate.

Deep Easterly

IMT down to 14.2c up to midinight last, the lowest value for the month so far, but still much above average. This figure will probably lower, albeit slowly, towards the month's end as near average temps look to be the theme for the coming week.

A quick look at mean sea level pressure anomalies for stations Malin Head, Dublin Apt & Valentia. (the chart represents the combined anomaly of the 3 stations mentioned above to get an idea of MSLP deviations over the nationwide whole:



Up to midnight last, the 2010 MSLP deviation from the 61-90 norm for the 3 stations stands at +0.73 hPa, which seems to reflect the slightly drier than average year so far over the country.



Data Sources:
met eireann
Dept of Meteorology at University of Reading

Deep Easterly

Just to add to a previous post, the daily (midnight to midnight) mean of the the 5 stations used in the IMT analysis for the 25th came to 8.5c, which is almost a degree lower than the daily mean of 9.4c as shown on the chart above. Yesterday's (the 26th) mean came to 9.3c.

Just to note, we had to wait until the 6th October last year to get the first single digit IMT daily mean of the season, and that equated to 8.23c.

IMT currently on 14.0c.

Speak Now

pauldry wrote: »

1.4?!!:eek:

Wow I dont think that will be beat now.

My own predictions for the rest of the month for mins would be
Sat 25th 5c
Sun 26th 4c
Mon 27th 8c
Tues 28th 7c
Wed 29th 6c
Thurs 30th 8c

Rough guesses only but just my reasoning on why 1.4c prob wont be bate.

Ballyhaise 1.0 yesterday

Minimums ranged from 1.0 to 13.8 :pac:

pauldry

Its very fickle isnt it.

My predictions were just that.

Just like my preediction of Mark Webber to win the Grand Prix at weekend and Liverpool to beat Sunderland WRONG!!!:):mad:

Deep Easterly

IMT for september finished at 13.6c. M.T looks to have guessed the closest with his 13.5c.

Some final stats (not used as part of the competition)
IMT Mean Max: 17.4c (+0.7c)
IMT Mean Min: 9.9c (+1.2c)
IMT Mean Rainfall Total: 134.5mm (167%)


Chart graphing mean daily IMT temp and rainfall for the month:


M.T will have all the essential figures & results laher on.



All data used above c/o met eireann

M.T. Cranium

The final numbers:

IMT 13.6 C

max temp was 22.6 C at Casement (3rd)

min temp was 1.0 C at Ballyhaise (27th)

rainfall was 149% of normal at the eleven stations

sunshine was 104% of normal at the six sites

bonus question 1.8 hrs sunshine

Scoring will proceed while I watch the gripping rain delay at the Ryder Cup (the TV ratings at 0400 here must be through the roof).

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

max temp was 22.6 C at Claremorris(3rd)

Fixed thy post..;)

Actualy, looking at the rainfall figures, I think it is interesting that the highest totals for the month were recorded inland generally speaking. The rainfall event on the 6th seems to have been less impactive at coastal stations.

thetonynator

Daily mean of 8.5 in september :eek: