The Double Dip

JONJO THE MISER

http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/26-08-2010/114761-economic_armageddon-0

The worst nightmare forecast by economic specialists over the previous years has come true: new research by economic gurus in the United States of America has revealed a bleak scenario: the United States’ economy is in a state of depression. Yes, it is the Double Dip, a roller-coaster ride to economic catastrophe and it has arrived. To come: massive debt default, the failure of entire nations and widespread starvation in the western world.

The research referring to the works of a number of leading economists (David Rosenberg, Fred Harrison, Arthur Laffer, Nobel Prizewinner Paul Krugman, Robin Griffiths) is revealed in the article by US based analyst and writer, Terrence Aym*. And it makes terrifying reading.

While these leading economists represent different views from opposite ends of the political spectrums both in the USA and the UK, on one thing they agree: the decade ahead is going to get worse.

David Rosenberg states categorically that the United States’ economy has entered another Great Depression, the beginning of the double dip much referred to in recent years, following the shocking revelation in July that the US real estate market has collapsed 27% compared with July 2009.
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British economist Fred Harrison explains that property speculation around the globe was responsible for the boom and bust waves ripping through the world economy and claims that tax reforms could have avoided the crisis. What he predicts now is a decade-long depression fuelled by “a massive contraction in demand” resulting in a 45 trillion-dollar debt default and unemployment rates of 25% in the USA and UK. Worse still, Harrison predicts the failure of entire nations and “something unseen for hundreds of years could appear again: wholesale starvation of peoples in some Western countries”.

Harrison, we remember, was dubbed by Spectator Business in 2008 “the canary in the housing mine”… “Nostradamus could scarcely have been more accurate”.

According to the research in Terrence Aym’s article, US economists Arthur Laffer and Nobel Prizewinner Paul Krugman agree with Harrison and foresee higher unemployment, more foreclosures, more failed businesses, a worsening credit crisis and housing slump in the USA.

Laffer, advisor to President Reagan, a member of the US Economic Policy Advisory Board, predicts a “very big fall” for the US economy in early 2011, translated into falling corporate profits and a probable collapse of the Stock Market as massive tax hikes begin to bite when existing legislation runs out.

Krugman agrees: a Second Great Depression is underway now and tomorrow, there will be tens of millions of people caught in long-term endemic unemployment in the USA. Robin Griffiths, strategist at Cazenove Capital, concurs: “The world has entered significant financial depression” while claiming ominously “a double dip is inevitable and imminent”, as he draws parallels with the US M3 money supply today and between 1929/1933.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the double dip has arrived.

*Top economists : The second Great depression has arrived

http://www.helium.com/items/1933168-us-in-economic-great-depression

starbelgrade

Is this about teabagging?

JONJO THE MISER

starbelgrade wrote: »

Is this about teabagging?

Got me:p

Ruu_Old

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J3w4cS2MvM

TheRiddler

When I saw the title "The Double Dip" my heart quicken and I immediately thought that I would be learning about an extreme sexual position that I could try with girls I know down at the local drinking establishment. But upon reading the first post I am highly disappointed and feel cheated. You owe me an extreme sexual position.

Celly Smunt

maybe a war will fix it?

Lukker-

It all sounds so dramatic.

Jesus Wept

It was terrible if the swizzle stick was broken - it's the best of a double dip.
They should have just brought out a bag of swizzle sticks tbh, that would have been ace.

Sea Sharp

The West needs to go communist or temporarily seize control of everybody's wealth.

starbelgrade

Sea Sharp wrote: »

The West needs to go communist or temporarily seize control of everybody's wealth.

I'm not sure that Connaught & Munster have the manpower to do that. The will, maybe, but just not enough bodies to make it happen.

I like your thinking though.

El Weirdo

Mmmm... acid.

RATM

Double Dip? Time to start up the printing presses so. Call it quantatative easing, that pesky public will never cop it.

A double dip in property isn't all that surprising. And it will arrive on our shores by the end of the year. Property still has a good bit to fall- rental yields are currently running about 3% so investors have legged it or want to get out desperately. Unemployment is soon to be at 15% which will compound the matter.
Most houses outside Dublin are still over valued by 35-50%. Asking prices in Dublin are closer to the true market value but they still have a bit to fall, though not as much. When you see 3 bed semi-Ds in the likes of Cavan going for 75-85k then it becomes worthwhile for investors to re-enter the market and the bottom will be near. As it stands 3 beds in Cavan town are mainly asking 110-130k so we've a bit of a way to go there yet.

Sure glad I never bought that 'starter home' shoe box apartment :eek:

JONJO THE MISER

El Weirdo wrote: »

Mmmm... acid.

Flashback?

The banks are desperate to kickstart a bit of hyper inflation to rob savers of their savings. :eek:
Only problem is the system is so screwed, they can't, the chinese won't let them!

And in the real world:

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/196071/Britain-has-a-mini-boom/

JONJO THE MISER

salonfire wrote: »

And in the real world:

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/196071/Britain-has-a-mini-boom/

:rolleyes:Please get with it, aww yeah nothing to see here move along move along.

PeterIanStaker

Hurry up will you Iran, North Korea, whoever, and launch those nukes so we can stop worrying about the economy.

JONJO THE MISER

Well once Israel attacks Iran this winter you will see Iran block all oil shipments in the gulf, you aint seen nothing yet folks.

Lust4Life

This is shocking news! (Can you hear the sarcasm?)
It doesn't take a top economist to know that Government bailouts would never resolve the problem that has spun so far out of control.

If People and Businesses would simply learn to live within their means and stop pretending they can afford crazy expenses, we would all be in a better place today.

Okay, I'll jump off my soap box now and get back in the kitchen and cook you all up a nice big pie.

JONJO THE MISER

Lust4Life wrote: »

Okay, I'll jump off my soap box now and get back in the kitchen and cook you all up a nice big pie.

Blueberry Pie?

Lust4Life

Sure! I'll have to run to the market though....

JONJO THE MISER

Take your time ill have it for desert this evening:)

Lust4Life

Lust4Life wrote: »

This is shocking news! (Can you hear the sarcasm?)
It doesn't take a top economist to know that Government bailouts would never resolve the problem that has spun so far out of control.

If People and Businesses would simply learn to live within their means and stop pretending they can afford crazy expenses, we would all be in a better place today.

Okay, I'll jump off my soap box now and get back in the kitchen and cook you all up a nice big pie.

When the supply of energy (oil) stop growing, then there is only one thing an economy can do and that is to stop growing! A financial model based on indefinite growth is doomed to fail, the next couple of years will be very "interesting".

Lust4Life

Agreed, Dolanbaker.

My point is, if a small business plans poorly, spends poorly and does not grow, it fails and the business closes. The owner learns from their mistakes and likely tries again using new strategies and is successful.

In America, if a HUGE business / Industry plans poorly and shows signs of great struggle, they get a huge government bailout or loan and simply continue doing business as usual.


How can the economy evolve and move forward when these businesses keep getting held afloat on false economic standings?

amacachi

Lust4Life wrote: »

Agreed, Dolanbaker.

My point is, if a small business plans poorly, spends poorly and does not grow, it fails and the business closes. The owner learns from their mistakes and likely tries again using new strategies and is successful.

In America, if a HUGE business / Industry plans poorly and shows signs of great struggle, they get a huge government bailout or loan and simply continue doing business as usual.


How can the economy evolve and move forward when these businesses keep getting held afloat on false economic standings?

Or an Irish bank...

Agricola

I thought this thread would be about threesomes or buying different editions of the same DVD......... Disappointed.

Mister men

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Well once Israel attacks Iran this winter you will see Iran block all oil shipments in the gulf, you aint seen nothing yet folks.

Source or do you control the Isreali army?

Terry

Here's a happier story linked to on that page.
http://www.funreports.com/fun/07-12-2004/1145-0
Edit: Some pics on that site may be NSFW (doll boobies, but they look real from a distance).


They also have hot Russian chicks.
http://english.pravda.ru/photo/report/women-4384/2/

Wertz

Deleted User wrote: »

When the supply of energy (oil) stop growing, then there is only one thing an economy can do and that is to stop growing! A financial model based on indefinite growth is doomed to fail, the next couple of years will be very "interesting".

"Collapse"
Well worth watching.

When this comes to pass it'll put our current economic woes to shame.
We're already seeing some of the stuff Ruppert's predicted in the past few months...crop shortages this year due to the russian wildfires is going to push up prices for wheat, pakistan/chinese flooding will affect the rice crop, the price of cocoa beans was pushed to a 25 yr high last monthj by futures commodity traders, moves to buy the world's biggest potash producing mines (for fertiliser)...we're already in the "rocky plateua" of fluctuating oil prices...
We effectively eat oil, and that's particularly true in the west...self sufficiency and the ability to produce food without using oil or it's by-products will be the key to survival for many...and when it comes to people like us in rich developed nations, molly coddled over generations of cheap energy, we're pretty much f*cked as regards self sufficiency.

bonerm

Ruu wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J3w4cS2MvM

or

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89z9W-gOXDY

Sea Sharp

Wertz wrote: »

"Collapse"
Well worth watching.

When this comes to pass it'll put our current economic woes to shame.
We're already seeing some of the stuff Ruppert's predicted in the past few months...crop shortages this year due to the russian wildfires is going to push up prices for wheat, pakistan/chinese flooding will affect the rice crop, the price of cocoa beans was pushed to a 25 yr high last monthj by futures commodity traders, moves to buy the world's biggest potash producing mines (for fertiliser)...we're already in the "rocky plateua" of fluctuating oil prices...
We effectively eat oil, and that's particularly true in the west...self sufficiency and the ability to produce food without using oil or it's by-products will be the key to survival for many...and when it comes to people like us in rich developed nations, molly coddled over generations of cheap energy, we're pretty much f*cked as regards self sufficiency.

The one thing I didn't like about 'Collapse' was that he doesn't give a proper explanation as to why he thinks people lack the ability to innovate out of a sticky situation.

The cost of oil reflects the supply, this means that we won't see a sudden crash whereby one day the supply gets cut off in a dramatic manner. What will happen is that the cost will continue to go up and people will use oil more sparingly as a reflection of this cost. The world economy will inevitably hit (if it hasn't already) a peak in oil consumption. What will then happen is that we will be weaned off oil over a period of decades, not days as some scare mongerers seem to think.

If petrol becomes too expensive then more people will use public transport.
If central heating becomes too expensive then everyone will only use it for hot water and really cold days. If plastic becomes too expensive then paper will become more viable.

rossie1977

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

see Iran block all oil shipments in the gulf, you aint seen nothing yet folks.

doubt that will happen, the usa surrounds iran on all sides

as for double dip this is a worry, if we remember back to the great depression, the first fall was hard the second (some 3 years later) after a 60% rebound from the first was complete and utter disaster

Wertz

Sea Sharp wrote: »

The one thing I didn't like about 'Collapse' was that he doesn't give a proper explanation as to why he thinks people lack the ability to innovate out of a sticky situation.

The cost of oil reflects the supply, this means that we won't see a sudden crash whereby one day all of a sudden the supply gets cut off. What will happen is that the cost will continue to go up and people will use oil more sparingly as a reflection of this cost. The world economy will inevitably hit (if it hasn't already) a peak in oil consumption. What will then happen is that we will be weaned off oil over a period of decades, not days as some scare mongerers seem to think.

If petrol becomes too expensive then more people will use public transport.
If central heating becomes too expensive then everyone will only use it for hot water and really cold days. If plastic becomes too expensive then paper will become more viable.

Fair points and you're right, he did leave a lot of things unsaid...but I don't think he wanted to create false hope. It also adds to the impact of the film if it's all just doom & gloom.

The amount of stuff we use oil in is frightneing, especially when you consider that plastics (the mainstay) have only been around for 80 yrs or so. Imagine life without plastic...and then look at the amount of it we throw in landfill or burn every year. Paper isn't a viable alternative to plastic in all but some packaging. There are plastic alternatives but they involve having a lot of growing land (just like biofuels) and all that land needs fertilisers (mainly oil based for now).
Look at our reliance on air travel that is solely dependent on kerosene...no jet engine without oil and no viable alternative available from bio/renewable resources currently:
http://www.bioenergywiki.net/Biokerosene
How about our continued burning of oil as a fuel, when it's so much more valuable as a source of vital chemicals.

I do agree that it's not going to be an overnight collapse, just a slow sinking into the mud, probably over the course of a few years. Your chances of riding it out will depend on your location in the world. Coal fired electricty will make a strong come back (to power electric vehicles and meet the demand of heating buildings) with all that that may entail for the global climate (not getting into that debate).
There is also going to be a mass movement of populations as people move to areas better suited to survival, conflicts and land grabs as countrys vie for dwindling resources (and water).

I'm curious as to how we get weaned off oil when we are so so bought into it as the only game in town...it's like trying to wean a plant off water...pretty soon the outter leaves go brown, start dieing and falling off as the plant seeks to protect it's roots. We'd see the same with our populations.
Our problem currently is that oil was/is in such volumes of availability that we have had the chance to simply grow and grow on the back of it...no-one's had the need to innovate or develop alternatives because of that...the blip in the 70's lit some fires under some asses, but then it all went back to being easy cheap energy again. We could be so close to the end here that it's too late to develop some of the things that need to be developed to minimise trhe impact of hyper expensive oil.
The economy being based on all of that, means that money will effectively become useless through hyper inflation as everything rises in price. You can't eat euro notes or dollar bills.

It won't be an apocalypse, just a very large restructuring of the world population density and distribution of same. We as a species will live through it, but civilisation will take a long time (if ever) to rise back to the levels of the 19th/20th centuries...
We've known that the world is over populated...this will inevitably bring things back into balance...some would say that it's not even that bad a thing (myself included)....but on a strictly humaniarian basis, it is...

Terry

Terry wrote: »

They also have hot Russian chicks.
http://english.pravda.ru/photo/report/women-4384/2/

The Russian websites are prob my favourite... http://englishrussia.com/ can be brilliant.

Wertz

Wertz wrote: »

Fair points and you're right, he did leave a lot of things unsaid...but I don't think he wanted to create false hope. It also adds to the impact of the film if it's all just doom & gloom.

The amount of stuff we use oil in is frightneing, especially when you consider that plastics (the mainstay) have only been around for 80 yrs or so. Imagine life without plastic...and then look at the amount of it we throw in landfill or burn every year. Paper isn't a viable alternative to plastic in all but some packaging. There are plastic alternatives but they involve having a lot of growing land (just like biofuels) and all that land needs fertilisers (mainly oil based for now).
Look at our reliance on air travel that is solely dependent on kerosene...no jet engine without oil and no viable alternative available from bio/renewable resources currently:
http://www.bioenergywiki.net/Biokerosene
How about our continued burning of oil as a fuel, when it's so much more valuable as a source of vital chemicals.

I do agree that it's not going to be an overnight collapse, just a slow sinking into the mud, probably over the course of a few years. Your chances of riding it out will depend on your location in the world. Coal fired electricty will make a strong come back (to power electric vehicles and meet the demand of heating buildings) with all that that may entail for the global climate (not getting into that debate).
There is also going to be a mass movement of populations as people move to areas better suited to survival, conflicts and land grabs as countrys vie for dwindling resources (and water).

I'm curious as to how we get weaned off oil when we are so so bought into it as the only game in town...it's like trying to wean a plant off water...pretty soon the outter leaves go brown, start dieing and falling off as the plant seeks to protect it's roots. We'd see the same with our populations.
Our problem currently is that oil was/is in such volumes of availability that we have had the chance to simply grow and grow on the back of it...no-one's had the need to innovate or develop alternatives because of that...the blip in the 70's lit some fires under some asses, but then it all went back to being easy cheap energy again. We could be so close to the end here that it's too late to develop some of the things that need to be developed to minimise trhe impact of hyper expensive oil.
The economy being based on all of that, means that money will effectively become useless through hyper inflation as everything rises in price. You can't eat euro notes or dollar bills.

It won't be an apocalypse, just a very large restructuring of the world population density and distribution of same. We as a species will live through it, but civilisation will take a long time (if ever) to rise back to the levels of the 19th/20th centuries...
We've known that the world is over populated...this will inevitably bring things back into balance...some would say that it's not even that bad a thing (myself included)....but on a strictly humaniarian basis, it is...

Agree with everything you said there, there is a "dash for gas" in some countries at the moment. In the UK they are now dependant on Russia for a large percentage of their gas, most oil fired power stations have been shut or converted to gas. Ireland will be hit harder as we are more oil dependant than most EU countries so the shrinkage will be more noticable.

The only good thing about the (likely)hyperinflation is it will quickly eliminate the millstone of debt that many have, unfortunately it will also wipe out savings that are not in precious metals.

After that, hopefully the FIAT money will be replaced by something that will work in the new economic climate. i.e. does not rely on indefinite growth to function.

Amhran Nua

Oil running out is not going to destroy civilisation as we know it. The only thing that will happen is other methods of power production will become more viable economically, they pretty much are already. Look at the European supergrid for example, a proposal to supply almost all of Europe's power requirements from renewable sources, perfectly doable and in fact economical. So much so thats its going right ahead, along with DESERTEC. We are literally swimming in energy.

The more immediate problem is the real double dip which many people have predicted, I'll summarise it here.

Governments and banks have been pretending that speculation is investment, borrowing is income, and money-multiplication through circular lending is economic growth, at the low interest rates of secure loans backed by assets, not at the far more serious rate of speculation.

Obviously that particular emporer had no clothes, so for the last couple of years governments around the world have been replacing actual income with savings or more borrowings, and calling it stimulus packages. The acid test of whether or not global industry can stand on its own two feet is yet to come, as borrowings start to become prohibitive (look at the spreads on Irish bonds these days) and savings run out.

We should be finding out very shortly whether or not the gamble worked. It didn't really the last time, and I wouldn't give it good odds today either.

Amhran Nua

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Oil running out is not going to destroy civilisation as we know it. The only thing that will happen is other methods of power production will become more viable economically, they pretty much are already. Look at the European supergrid for example, a proposal to supply almost all of Europe's power requirements from renewable sources, perfectly doable and in fact economical. So much so thats its going right ahead, along with DESERTEC. We are literally swimming in energy.
.

The supergrid would be good for shifting surplus electricity around Europe, it will not (unless massively enhanced) carry significant (20%+) amounts of power that a country requires.
It's simply impossible to build sufficient renewable energy sources to completely replace oil (and other fossil fuels), the only way to go without causing a long slow death is to reengineer society to operate in a reduced fuel environment. Building houses, shops & places of work close together, rather than separate as is the case now, thus eliminating the need for transport.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The more immediate problem is the real double dip which many people have predicted, I'll summarise it here.

Governments and banks have been pretending that speculation is investment, borrowing is income, and money-multiplication through circular lending is economic growth, at the low interest rates of secure loans backed by assets, not at the far more serious rate of speculation.

Obviously that particular emporer had no clothes, so for the last couple of years governments around the world have been replacing actual income with savings or more borrowings, and calling it stimulus packages. The acid test of whether or not global industry can stand on its own two feet is yet to come, as borrowings start to become prohibitive (look at the spreads on Irish bonds these days) and savings run out.

We should be finding out very shortly whether or not the gamble worked. It didn't really the last time, and I wouldn't give it good odds today either.

One waty to reduce the affects of the recession would be to reverse globalisation. Start small scale manufacturing plants, producing goods that currently come from China, they will have to be subsidised as it's impossible to compete with a "bag of rice economy" would be a start.

Amhran Nua

Deleted User wrote: »

The supergrid would be good for shifting surplus electricity around Europe, it will not (unless massively enhanced) carry significant (20%+) amounts of power that a country requires.
It's simply impossible to build sufficient renewable energy sources to completely replace oil (and other fossil fuels), the only way to go without causing a long slow death is to reengineer society to operate in a reduced fuel environment.

The European supergrid is meant to supply over 90% of European power requirements. Graham Brennan of SEI has said that Ireland could supply most of its energy needs from readily available wind sites, and thats before we start looking at our offshore resources. Around 1% of the sunlight falling on the Sahara could meet all of Europe's energy needs. 20% is only the 2020 target for Europe, do you think it will stop there?

There seems to be a massive push against renewables from certain quarters these days, no need to think too hard about where that's coming from I guess. And yet it moves, at the end of the day.

Deleted User wrote: »

One waty to reduce the affects of the recession would be to reverse globalisation. Start small scale manufacturing plants, producing goods that currently come from China, they will have to be subsidised as it's impossible to compete with a "bag of rice economy" would be a start.

Estimates are that around a third of the Chinese competitive advantage comes from currency manipulation, a bit like the Japanese before MITI had its teeth pulled. After a certain point they will be forced to compete on a level playing field, and there is already significant union action starting to form there, so that should even out the pay disparity somewhat.

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise. My recommendation would be green energy technology, for obvious reasons.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

One waty to reduce the affects of the recession would be to reverse globalisation. Start small scale manufacturing plants, producing goods that currently come from China, they will have to be subsidised as it's impossible to compete with a "bag of rice economy" would be a start.

Disagree with this completely..

Amhran Nua

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The European supergrid is meant to supply over 90% of European power requirements. Graham Brennan of SEI has said that Ireland could supply most of its energy needs from readily available wind sites, and thats before we start looking at our offshore resources. Around 1% of the sunlight falling on the Sahara could meet all of Europe's energy needs. 20% is only the 2020 target for Europe, do you think it will stop there?.

The biggest issue with renewables is storage!* When that problem is solved then it's a go. The variability of wind and solar power limits the usefulness of renewables and requires that a large baseload is maintained by conventional means. Do you really think it's possible to build an interconnector to carry power from the Sahara into central Europe, it would be a fantastic feat of engineering if it was ever built.

*If a simple and relativly cheap battery system could be developed for consumers to store a few days worth of electricity, then it would allow generators to "smooth" out their baseload. Consumers would charge them up on windy days and draw power from the batteries on calm days, all done in the background (the consumer does nothing to them).

Renewables will not replace all the fissil fuel that is currently consumed, consumption must be reduced.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

There seems to be a massive push against renewables from certain quarters these days, no need to think too hard about where that's coming from I guess. And yet it moves, at the end of the day..

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Estimates are that around a third of the Chinese competitive advantage comes from currency manipulation, a bit like the Japanese before MITI had its teeth pulled. After a certain point they will be forced to compete on a level playing field, and there is already significant union action starting to form there, so that should even out the pay disparity somewhat.

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise. My recommendation would be green energy technology, for obvious reasons.

+1 When the Chinese have developed their own internal market, they'll drop the western "tat" anyway, we just need to maintain and enhance our manufacturing industries.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Disagree with this completely..

The day may come when the only source of "stuff" is Chinese and the price is too high for us to buy and we have to do without as we abandoned our manufacturing base.

sdanseo

Hang on a second, a Double Dip is a tasty, rare treat of a confection from my childhood. Now you want me to associate nice things like that with a recession?

You thoughtless bástard! :P

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

The day may come when the only source of "stuff" is Chinese and the price is too high for us to buy and we have to do without as we abandoned our manufacturing base.

If the price of chinese/japanese/taiwanese goods ever becomes more expensive than what it would cost to produce it ourselves with no economies of scale, we are well and truely fuked and there wouldn't be anyone left in the country.
1.3 billion farmers in China would in theory be richer than each of us.

Amhran Nua

Deleted User wrote: »

The biggest issue with renewables is storage!*

Please read up on the European supergrid concept.

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you really think it's possible to build an interconnector to carry power from the Sahara into central Europe, it would be a fantastic feat of engineering if it was ever built.

Its already getting started. Its certainly no more impressive a feat than a trans-Siberian oil pipeline for example, probably a lot less so.

Deleted User wrote: »

Renewables will not replace all the fissil fuel that is currently consumed, consumption must be reduced.

Yes they will, and a great deal more besides.

Deleted User wrote: »

If the price of chinese/japanese/taiwanese goods ever becomes more expensive than what it would cost to produce it ourselves with no economies of scale, we are well and truely fuked and there wouldn't be anyone left in the country.

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise.

Amhran Nua

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Most of the top ten exporters are first world nations, Germany is number 2 after China, and not by much of a margin. We don't need to compete with them on plastic doodahs and socks, just find a few select markets where we can specialise.

Yea it's what we've been good at now for a while now but I think the education system is now holding us back unfortunately.. The leaving kills any ambition to do science in most people.

Amhran Nua

Deleted User wrote: »

Yea it's what we've been good at now for a while now but I think the education system is now holding us back unfortunately.. The leaving kills any ambition to do science in most people.

We have to make a start on it sooner or later, I don't think running hotels and selling houses to each other is a viable long term plan for the economy. The education system has been let slip badly over recent years, but it shouldn't be too hard to rectify.

fakearms123

Okay I'm here, I brought my bag of Doritos crisps, where's this Double Dip I was promised??

fakearms123

fakearms123 wrote: »

Okay I'm here, I brought my bag of Doritos crisps, where's this Double Dip I was promised??

That's what your ould one said last night.

Wertz

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Its already getting started. Its certainly no more impressive a feat than a trans-Siberian oil pipeline for example, probably a lot less so.

Laying a prefab pipeline with some pumping stations along it's length is relatively simple compared to running high voltage supply cables and the transformers and other grid infrastructure necessary to maintain the flow of current from N Africa.

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Yes they will, and a great deal more besides.

I used to think like this years ago....the realism behind the hype the like of SEI and Eammon Ryan reel off is that sustainables are unsustainable (due to levels of demand) and require so much investment and time that they'll barely be viable by the time the price of oil heads north. That's before we even talk about other petrochemicals we need to repalce...oil isn't just about energy.
Nuclear is never going to be the panacea the new greens think it's going to be either....coal is where it's at.
Solar/wind/tidal is fine in the way that bio ethanol and biodiesel is fine...when there is fossil oil to underpin them...on their own, without the reliability of oil to fall back on they become patchy as an energy supply, never mind the practicality of growing enough fuel on agri land to keep the planet happy...
We need a serious readjustment in our demand on energy and that simply won't happen without a huge rise in prices and/or a major shortage in oil supply...


I agree with your point on the double dip though and government borrowing dressed up as GDP...alll of that system too is based on oil and the future profits of companies who trade on the basis of oil and it's multitude of derivative products...

Amhran Nua

Wertz wrote: »

Laying a prefab pipeline with some pumping stations along it's length is relatively simple compared to running high voltage supply cables and the transformers and other grid infrastructure necessary to maintain the flow of current from N Africa.

HVDC, single line cable direct from there to here. They already have a few of them stretching across the North Sea and the channel, Dutch wind farms store their energy in Norwegian lakes.

Wertz wrote: »

I used to think like this years ago....the realism behind the hype the like of SEI and Eammon Ryan reel off is that sustainables are unsustainable (due to levels of demand) and require so much investment and time that they'll barely be viable by the time the price of oil heads north.

There is a common misconception that a lot of otherwise well informed people hold about renewables, in particular wind, based on small scale infrastructure which is all we have now, aided and abetted by a heavy duty barrage of shall we say somewhat biased commentary and wild eyed lunatics the likes of Richard Tol, who has been styling himself as an "environmental economist". Small scale stuff is about as efficient as putting a gas turbine in the attic of a scattering of houses around the country and trying to generate energy that way. And yet even with that renewables still provide a decent percentage of Irish energy right now.

Once you get into the larger scale it becomes a much more economical matter. And I mean really, on a large scale, is it going to be more economical to explore, find, drill, extract, process, pipe, ship, transport and burn fuel from deep underground, or just pull that energy from thin air? Especially with China weighing in on the turbine market soon, install prices are going to plummet.

Subsidies for coal and fossil fuel industries dwarf those for renewables, one complaint that is often heard in renewables circles is they'd be delighted to have all subsidies cancelled as long as fossil fuel also gets theirs cancelled. Governments won't do that with the amount of jobs involved in this extremely labour intensive industry though.

We're well on top of the substitutes for oil in other areas as well, so no worries on that front.

Wertz

Amhran Nua wrote: »

We're well on top of the substitutes for oil in other areas as well, so no worries on that front.

Good stuff on the renewable energies. I still strongly disagree on your last point, but I'm not spending the morning arguing about it.
Plastics (hundreds of types), airline fuel and heavy marine fuel oil are a problem to substitute currently. All are vital to the world economy, especially those involved in transport of people or resources...wihtout them or with a huge jump in their prices, the global economy just can't function in the way we've become dependant on...

Anyway this is veering off topic (my fault). Double dip in Ireland is looking very likely after yesterdays new live register figures and the reports of mortage defaulters on the rise just this morning.