The North Atlantic Current is gone!

BEASTERLY

OK, I know this seems like a load of bull**** scaremongering but it is interesting all the same.

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/

http://pesn.com/2010/08/01/9501682_Gull_Loop_Current_Stalls_from_BP_Spill/

TBH, I find it all a bit exciting, might be our only chance of getting twwo cold winters in a row?

Elmo5

Interesting alright! :eek:

WolfeIRE

on first read it is very interesting. Seems too simplistic all the same. Either way, must do more reasearch on this. nice find beasterly.

ps..does this mean Dennis Quaid will be coming to rescue us?

TheInquisitor

Thats bloody scary reading!

Su Campu

Thanks, that's the best laugh I've had all year!

Fruitcake!

WolfeIRE

Gulf Stream 'is not slowing down'

29 March 10 08:48 GMT
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News

The Gulf Stream does not appear to be slowing down, say US scientists who have used satellites to monitor tell-tale changes in the height of the sea.
Confirming work by other scientists using different methodologies, they found dramatic short-term variability but no longer-term trend.
A slow-down - dramatised in the movie The Day After Tomorrow - is projected by some models of climate change.
The research is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
The stream is a key process in the climate of western Europe, bringing heat northwards from the tropics and keeping countries such as the UK 4-6C warmer than they would otherwise be.
It forms part of a larger movement of water, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is itself one component of the global thermohaline system of currents.
Between 2002 and 2009, the team says, there was no trend discernible - just a lot of variability on short timescales.
The satellite record going back to 1993 did suggest a small increase in flow, although the researchers cannot be sure it is significant.
"The changes we're seeing in overturning strength are probably part of a natural cycle," said Josh Willis from Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in California.
"The slight increase in overturning since 1993 coincides with a decades-long natural pattern of Atlantic heating and cooling."
Short measures
The first observations suggesting the circulation was slowing down emerged in 2005, in research from the UK's National Oceanography Centre (NOC).
Using an array of detectors across the Atlantic and comparing its readings against historical records, scientists suggested the volume of cold water returning southwards could have fallen by as much as 30% in half a century - a significant decline.
The surface water sinks in the Arctic and flows back southwards at the bottom of the ocean, driving the circulation.
However, later observations by the same team showed that the strength of the flow varied hugely on short timescales - from one season to the next, or even shorter.
But they have not found any clear trend since 2004.
Rapid relief
The NOC team now has a chain of instruments in place across the Atlantic, making measurements continuously.
"In four-and-a-half years of measurement, we have found there is a lot of variability, and we're working to explain it," said NOC's Harry Bryden.
The quantities of water involved are huge, varying between four million and 35 million tonnes of water per second.
The array is part of the UK-funded Rapid project, which aims to refine understanding of potentially large climate change impacts that could happen in short periods.
Professor Bryden's team calculates that their system is good enough to detect a long-term change in flow of about 20% - but it has not happened yet.
He believes the JPL approach - using satellite altimeters, instruments that can measure sea height precisely, and the Argo array of autonomous floating probes - could potentially add useful data to that coming from long-term on-site monitoring arrays.
But, he points out: "The method concentrates only on the upper [northward] flow - it doesn't give you much information on the returning flow southward."
Fantasy and reality
Driven by Hollywood, a popular image of a Gulf Stream slowdown shows a sudden catastrophic event driving snowstorms across the temperate lands of western Europe and eastern North America.
That has always been fantasy - as, said Josh Willis, is the idea that a slow-down would trigger another ice age.
"But the Atlantic overturning circulation is still an important player in today's climate," he added.
"Some have suggested cyclic changes in the overturning may be warming and cooling the whole North Atlantic over the course of several decades and affecting rainfall patterns across the US and Africa, and even the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic."

Poly

Thanks for that, I just ordered 3 ton of coal and 280 cans of beans:D

Edit: anyone fancy going halfs on a containership of road salt?

Sponge Bob

Thanks for the nutjob blog , not. Would the NOAA/NODC not have flagged it ??

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/

TheInquisitor

WolfeIRE that article was from March before the disaster in the gulf...

BEASTERLY

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Thanks for the nutjob blog , not. Would the NOAA/NODC not have flagged it ??

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/

They would, it's obviously totally overdone.

But ehh... No need to shot the messenger boy:eek:

Sponge Bob

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But ehh... No need to shot the messenger boy:eek:

The messenger boy should have looked right as he scrolled down , holder of "ancient titles" my front hole further down is the third world war.

isle of man

so we not all going to die in the big frezze then

BEASTERLY

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The messenger boy should have looked right as he scrolled down , holder of "ancient titles" my front hole further down is the third world war.

Sorry about that, only saw that afterwards, it seems theres not a gram of science in it, i don't think holding dictatorship like landlord titles are any qualification.

Please ignore this nut job - until a scientist says anything about it, it should be taken as fantasy!

Sponge Bob

You must report yourself to the mods as punishment Beasterly Promise you won't do it again and they will go easy on ya.

Rebelbrowser

Still I'm going to knock a degree or two off my September predictions just to be safe.

Elmo5

It is still interesting as a concept though, what effect would the oil spill have on the north atlantic drift if any?

Sponge Bob

Part of the gulf stream is called the "Loop Current" and which exits the Gulf of Mexico and joins other warm currents in the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift flow. Eventually it warms our asses.

Here is a graphic showing it before during and after the spill and cleanup (slow 12 month loop watch september october.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IAS_nlomw12912mooper.gif

Once you literally "get the picture" see the last 30 dats loop and it looks fairly happy there so it does

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IAS_nlomw12930doper.gif

More data here from the US Navy Oceanographic Research Lab where I got that lot.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/ias.html

http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/

To my eye it looks like more of the Loop Current around Cuba is heading into the gulf stream now ( ie around Florida ) and less into the gulf itself which looks a tad colder. We could be WARMER if that is the case not colder

Deep Easterly

Elmo5 wrote: »

It is still interesting as a concept though, what effect would the oil spill have on the north atlantic drift if any?

This I would like to know myself. Would it slow down evaporation etc? Will our fish become more oily? Sponge Bob, over to you!

WolfeIRE

Thanks for posting the piece you found Beasterly, despite the grumblings and rudeness of some. No harm posting and discussing others opinions.

The gulfstream seems to be pretty healthy looking in the model outputs
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=144&code=0&carte=0&mode=5&archive=0

I am sure the hundreds swimming in spanish point and lahinch thought the same as well today. Either way, we will wait and see if oil has any effect no matter how small.

Sponge Bob

If Our fish are more oily we will build up more blubber which itself shall render us immune to the cold. . Mackerel are noticeably more oily at this time of year than in July. Start fishing for these oilier mackerel now and eat one or two every day between now and christmas. Simples really :cool:

BEASTERLY

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You must report yourself to the mods as punishment Beasterly Promise you won't do it again and they will go easy on ya.

OK I've done that, I hope they are nice to me.

In fairness I only posted it as there was a load of noise about it on web. If you looked at the other link you will see that it it not written by and evil british landlord!

As I said I don't agree with it but I tought some people might be interested in it, really didn't mean to cause any offence!

jambofc

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We could be WARMER if that is the case not colder

that's blasphemy.........100 lashes!!!!!!