David Moyes To Aston Villa

EI111

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Moyes is 47 and has been at Everton for eight years. He has been accepted as doing a great job with Everton since they finished fourth in 2005. In the five years since then, Chelsea have changed manager twice, Liverpool once, Man City with money three times, big jobs in Italy have come and gone, in France, Germany, etc, etc. Not once has Moyes been a favourite from a betting perspective for a big job, nor has any club officially approached Everton for permission to talk to him with regard to filling such positions.

But he has always been a favourite to take over from Ferguson

LuckyLloyd

EI111 wrote: »

But he has always been a favourite to take over from Ferguson

According to who?

If Mourinho, Hiddink, etc are available when Ferguson goes Moyes will be well overlooked. It's a nice notion, but for him to be the successor would depend on an unlikely set of circumstances where every member of the tier above him are locked into long term deals when Ferguson finally calls it a day.

It's a good fit from a media perspective, but the Glazers operate above media spin and bluster.

The Volt

I don't think there is realistically anyone out their capable of replacing Moyes in our current state, what makes it all worse is that if Moyes go's Kenwright will sell Pienaar for any kind of money offered before the new manager comes in so he has no resistance.

jesus_thats_gre

EI111 wrote: »

But he has always been a favourite to take over from Ferguson

A few fans here and there and AF saying that he would be a good replacement does not mean that he is the favourite to take over at United.

Neil3030

Voltwad wrote: »

I don't think there is realistically anyone out their capable of replacing Moyes in our current state, what makes it all worse is that if Moyes go's Kenwright will sell Pienaar for any kind of money offered before the new manager comes in so he has no resistance.

The story will be rubbished by morning, sleep easy.

The Volt

Neil3030 wrote: »

The story will be rubbished by morning, sleep easy.

My head is telling me that too.

But the papers are not liable for hundreds of thousands of pounds if they get a rumour wrong or dont act on information they hear. Several leading bookmakers cutting their odds to a tenth of what they previously were is a serious indication of what they percieve to be a likely outcome. Always an outside chance.

Neil3030

Voltwad wrote: »

My head is telling me that too.

But the papers are not liable for hundreds of thousands of pounds if they get a rumour wrong or dont act on information they hear. Several leading bookmakers cutting their odds to a tenth of what they previously were is a serious indication of what they percieve to be a likely outcome. Always an outside chance.

As far as the bookies are concerned, The Villa manager's job is a pretty small market, as many have already posted.

Further, new manager markets are very open to fraud.

So combining both of these, it stands to reason that a sizeable enough bet (I'd predict around £1,000) on a 33-1 shot will cut it down to near evens.

Moyes was seen shaking RL's hand before the match on Saturday, money went on him, odds dropped, the story snowballed.

I agree with you that the betting markets are usually a decent gauge of an event's outcome, but in this instance I really think Everton fans have no cause for concern. There will be a (another) statement from Moyes in the morning rubbishing the link.

EI111

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

According to who?

If Mourinho, Hiddink, etc are available when Ferguson goes Moyes will be well overlooked. It's a nice notion, but for him to be the successor would depend on an unlikely set of circumstances where every member of the tier above him are locked into long term deals when Ferguson finally calls it a day.

It's a good fit from a media perspective, but the Glazers operate above media spin and bluster.

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

A few fans here and there and AF saying that he would be a good replacement does not mean that he is the favourite to take over at United.

Well according to the bookies who have had him as a favourite for at least the last three years it is.

This is the current betting:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd-specials/next-permanent-manager

He was number 1 for a long time before a plunge on mourinho last year

jesus_thats_gre very stupid comment, could have been avoided very easily by knowing what you were talking about

EI111

Neil3030 wrote: »

So combining both of these, it stands to reason that a sizeable enough bet (I'd predict around £1,000) on a 33-1 shot will cut it down to near evens.

Absolutely

Helix

EI111 wrote: »

Well according to the bookies who have had him as a favourite for at least the last three years it is.

This is the current betting:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd-specials/next-permanent-manager

He was number 1 for a long time before a plunge on mourinho last year

jesus_thats_gre very stupid comment, could have been avoided very easily by knowing what you were talking about

aye, and the wonderful martin o'neill just behind him

about as likely as hitler getting a sainthood

Degag

Neil3030 wrote: »

So combining both of these, it stands to reason that a sizeable enough bet (I'd predict around £1,000) on a 33-1 shot will cut it down to near evens.

What?

On the overall market? Not a hope.

LuckyLloyd

EI111 wrote: »

Well according to the bookies who have had him as a favourite for at least the last three years it is.

This is the current betting:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd-specials/next-permanent-manager

He was number 1 for a long time before a plunge on mourinho last year

jesus_thats_gre very stupid comment, could have been avoided very easily by knowing what you were talking about

To be fair, a market like that has little correlation to reality. There would be very little volume of bets placed on it, and the prices at this stage would largely be a reflection of what the small amount of betting has been placed on.

ilovelamp2000

Helix wrote: »

honestly i think youre wrong there

mon just wasnt trusted with money any more until he cleared his mistakes off the wage bill, and i honestly dont think anyone could argue with that being the right course of action from lerner

new managers dont come cheap, theyll always need a load of financial backing, and itll be no different for the new man at villa. he'll be backed every bit as much as mon was before it became apparent his misses were too costly

Villain is right on this one for me.

Villa's wage bill is running at somewhere in the region of 80-85% of turnover. UEFA guidelines recommend that it should be at most in the 50-60% range and those guidelines will probably form part of the financial fair play rules that will become part of the European game in 2012.

Villa's wage bill has to drop dramatically and there's only one way that can happen - it isn't through adding to the squad right now.

I know Lerner has in the past shown that he's willing to invest (he lent the club 90m for transfers, on which he receives 15m in interest every year) but that was on the premise that Villa achieved CL qualification, they haven't so they'll seek to cut costs, regroup and wait for a good opportunity to have a go again a couple of years down the line. Exactly like the way American sports teams operate albeit in a much different environment.

LuckyLloyd

Rosco1982 wrote: »

I know Lerner has in the past shown that he's willing to invest (he lent the club 90m for transfers, on which he receives 15m in interest every year) but that was on the premise that Villa achieved CL qualification, they haven't so they'll seek to cut costs, regroup and wait for a good opportunity to have a go again a couple of years down the line. Exactly like the way American sports teams operate albeit in a much different environment.

Indeed he has done something similar with the Cleveland Browns in the recent past. He took a big shot with them in 2007 and 2008, and has pulled back from that the past two years.

Helix

Rosco1982 wrote: »

Villain is right on this one for me.

Villa's wage bill is running at somewhere in the region of 80-85% of turnover. UEFA guidelines recommend that it should be at most in the 50-60% range and those guidelines will probably form part of the financial fair play rules that will become part of the European game in 2012.

Villa's wage bill has to drop dramatically and there's only one way that can happen - it isn't through adding to the squad right now.

I know Lerner has in the past shown that he's willing to invest (he lent the club 90m for transfers, on which he receives 15m in interest every year) but that was on the premise that Villa achieved CL qualification, they haven't so they'll seek to cut costs, regroup and wait for a good opportunity to have a go again a couple of years down the line. Exactly like the way American sports teams operate albeit in a much different environment.

Our turnover is up tho. New principle and secondary sponsors, new foreign tv money and pricier season tickets. The gen said we're well down on the 80pc it was with our last released figures (08/09 season)

Neil3030

Randy would want to be careful about pissing around for the year with a caretaker. FXPro just signed a pretty pricey 3-year sponsorship deal with Villa and I am sure this was on an understanding that we wouldn't be just going through the motions and finishing in the top half of the table for 33% of its duration.

Randy may well have to go all out to in order to keep the sponsors happy.

death1234567

Would love it if moyes took over but its not going to happen.

pickarooney

Are managers subject to the transfer window yet?

Neil3030

Birmingham mail reporting a manifest headline grammar fail Moyes not in the running

http://www.birminghammail.net/birmingham-sport/aston-villa-fc/aston-villa-news/2010/08/31/kevin-macdonald-i-want-to-manager-aston-villa-full-time-97319-27167756/

Kevin MacDonald: I want to manager Aston Villa full time

Aug 31 2010 by Mathew Kendrick, Birmingham Mail

KEVIN MacDonald has finally told Randy Lerner he wants to manage Villa – and is now under serious consideration to permanently succeed Martin O’Neill.

As promised, MacDonald made up his mind yesterday and informed the chairman that he wishes to rule himself into the running to become the next long-term boss.

Follow transfer deadline day developments live with us here

It ends three weeks of uncertainty for the caretaker manager who deliberately remained non-committal about his decision until he was completely sure in his own mind.

MacDonald now joins a shortlist which is also believed to include four other names who match Villa’s primary criterion of having managed in the Premier League.

David Moyes surged to the top of the bookies’ list of favourites last night, but neither the Everton boss, nor Fulham’s Mark Hughes, are among the contenders.

MacDonald’s relative inexperience in the top flight, where he has taken charge of just seven games for Villa and Leicester, will not count against him.

As caretaker, MacDonald has presided over two Premier League home wins for Villa against West Ham and Everton with a drubbing at Newcastle in between.

In a similar short-term spell at Leicester following Brian Little’s departure to Villa in late 1994, his Foxes team beat Arsenal, drew at Villa Park and lost at Norwich and Newcastle.

Lerner and chief executive Paul Faulkner head a recruitment panel which got the interview process under way when they met with their first candidate yesterday.

Villa have ruled out making any new signings ahead of today’s 6pm transfer deadline and it is highly unlikely there will be any outgoing business either.

Luke Young is relishing the closure of the window this evening after expressing his desire to end a summer of uncertainty and continue his Villa revival.

Young never wanted to leave Villa Park and has been taken off the transfer list after rejecting a move to Liverpool last month with Fulham and West Ham also interested.

The 31-year-old right-back was surplus to requirements under O’Neill but celebrated regaining his place under MacDonald with Sunday’s winner against Everton.

Asked if he is more settled now, replied: “I will be once the window shuts.

“There are still people ringing me left, right and centre to see if I am available. I don’t believe I am available any more.

“I turned down Liverpool which was difficult.

“I always wanted to stay, that’s why I came here because I knew it was a big club.

“I felt if I could get myself in the starting XI, or there or thereabouts, then I’d be happy.

“It is refreshing now to know that if you are playing well you might keep your place.

“It is a clean slate for everybody.”

Young is the latest player to recommend MacDonald for the permanent manager’s job.

“I’ve played under a few people who don’t know half as much as Kev does,” he added.

“He knows tactics and formations. He has an edge about him that you want to please him.

“Even when he wasn’t in charge, if he came up to me on a Monday and said: ‘Well played’ it meant a lot.”

Wilfred Bouma has rejoined PSV Eindhoven on a two-year deal following the Dutch left-back’s release from Villa earlier in the summer.

John Carew has pulled out of Norway’s squad to face Iceland in a Euro 2012 qualifier in Reykjavik on Friday because of a knee injury.

death1234567

pickarooney wrote: »

Are managers subject to the transfer window yet?

No of course not, and they never will be.

Helix

The mail tend to get feck all from us tho dont they? Isnt the e&s the most reliable local?

Neil3030

Helix wrote: »

The mail tend to get feck all from us tho dont they? Isnt the e&s the most reliable local?

Bit of wishful thinking there!

They'd hardly be so daft as to state something like that unless they were sure... you'd think...

parker kent

EI111 wrote: »

Well according to the bookies who have had him as a favourite for at least the last three years it is.

This is the current betting:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd-specials/next-permanent-manager

He was number 1 for a long time before a plunge on mourinho last year

jesus_thats_gre very stupid comment, could have been avoided very easily by knowing what you were talking about

The bookies are pretty irrelevant in such decisions. The odds 3 years ago on a position that was not vacant is pretty meaningless.

The only time odds may be of interest is in the hours before an appointment when there is a flutter of bets put on by people in the know.

racso1975

Bob bradley just signed a contract extension with USA so he's outta the running

EI111

parker kent wrote: »

The bookies are pretty irrelevant in such decisions. The odds 3 years ago on a position that was not vacant is pretty meaningless.

The only time odds may be of interest is in the hours before an appointment when there is a flutter of bets put on by people in the know.

Ok here's what happened, i couldn't be bothered multiquoting.
somebody commented on how moyes was never a favourite in betting terms when any big job came up
i commented that he has long been the favourite for the united job
people started questioning me on where i got such a notion
i replied that i got it from the bookies, as the initial point made was about him never being a favourite in betting terms
I couldnt care less about it's relevance to anything or whether he will be the next united manager

and whoever just said that a 1000 pound bet wouldnt move a 33/1 shot into evens in a market with this much inside information is just wrong, it would be enough for the market to be temporarily suspended too

nullzero

Seems like a load of transfer deadline day bluster.
Hard to see Moyes leaving his squad to make a sideways move like that.

Warper

The bookies love these sort of moves - sure how many people have been odds-on for the Villa job now, at least 2 in Bradley and Sven. Today is SSN at its sickest. I would congratulate some nutcase if they decided to kamikaze that whole studio today - €20 anyone.

Black Magician

not sure if im been wound up but a friend of mine who I use to work with has told me Moyes IS going to be taken the interview for the Villa job. this doesnt mean he is going to accept the job but why bother taking the interview if you have no interest?

PHB

Moyes has had to work on pretty much 0 transfer budget for the past few years. A chance for him to flex his muscles in the market would be interesting.

matrim

Neil3030 wrote: »

Birmingham mail reporting a manifest headline grammar fail Moyes not in the running

http://www.birminghammail.net/birmingham-sport/aston-villa-fc/aston-villa-news/2010/08/31/kevin-macdonald-i-want-to-manager-aston-villa-full-time-97319-27167756/

Official word on the MacDonald thing

http://www.avfc.co.uk/page/NewsDetail/0,,10265~2140168,00.html

Kevin MacDonald has confirmed he wishes to be considered for the job of Aston Villa manager.

He will be interviewed along with other candiates.

Kevin stepped into the breach on the day that former manager Martin O'Neill resigned earlier this month, to take up the reigns in a caretaker capacity.

Under his stewardship the claret and blues have recorded two wins from their first three Barclays Premier League games and currently occupy fourth spot.

Krusader

Black Magician wrote: »

not sure if im been wound up but a friend of mine who I use to work with has told me Moyes IS going to be taken the interview for the Villa job. this doesnt mean he is going to accept the job but why bother taking the interview if you have no interest?

I heard they are interviewing 5 candidates, I heard one was Paul Lambert, who's at Norwich

any update on this?

Warper

rarnes1 wrote: »

any update on this?

There was never anything to update on. Not gonna happen. Regarding the Villa job I think Bilic would be a good candidate but he might be committed to the Croatia job but defo a guy to look into.

Warper

Warper wrote: »

There was never anything to update on. Not gonna happen. Regarding the Villa job I think Bilic would be a good candidate but he might be committed to the Croatia job but defo a guy to look into.

Maybe not Villa but it's only so long a manager as good as Moyes can remain in a job like Everton.

That's not having a go at Everton but there's no money for him year in year out. I'd imagine he'll be in a bigger job in the next two years.

Warper

rarnes1 wrote: »

Maybe not Villa but it's only so long a manager as good as Moyes can remain in a job like Everton.

That's not having a go at Everton but there's no money for him year in year out. I'd imagine he'll be in a bigger job in the next two years.

Bigger job as in who though? I cant see him ever managing the "Big 4" or City/Spurs/Villa. The only job that I see him moving to is Celtic. Moyes doesnt come across as a guy to leave in the middle of a project ala MON.

Neil3030

Warper wrote: »

Bigger job as in who though? I cant see him ever managing the "Big 4" or City/Spurs/Villa. The only job that I see him moving to is Celtic. Moyes doesnt come across as a guy to leave in the middle of a project ala MON.

Um.... how long is this project, 16 years?

invinciblePRSTV

Neil3030 wrote: »

Um.... how long is this project, 16 years?

Project keep 'Everton in the PL until a sugar daddy arrives' has been ongoing at Everton for what, a decade?

In a way surely Moyes will jump ship sooner or later if his main requirement is to only keep Everton competitive whilst balancing the books. It probably gets boring after nearly 10 years. Everton are destined to be 6-10th for perpetuity unless someone buys them? Surely Moyesy will need more then that on his CV to manage someone like Utd.

Third_Echelon

People's perceptions are hilarious sometimes....

MementoMori wrote: »

Everton's squad cost somewhere in the region of £75m and a large chunk of that was made by selling on their best players - Rooney £30m, Johnson £12m, Lescott £22m

Villa's squad cost somewhere around the £110m mark and the vast majority of that probably something like £80m was new investment by Lerner.

Ok Villa sold Milner and Barry recently but that is very much the exception as opposed to the norm. Everton have no choice but to sell theri best prospects to survive - see the Rodwell to Utd rumours.

No choice? Really? None of these players were put up for sale by the club.

Rooney wanted to leave after his agent whispered in his ear... Lescott wanted to leave after being offered a fortune in wages by City. In both occassions Moyes came out and said that he did not want to sell the player, but they wanted to leave..

Do you not remember Lescott playing in the first game of last season against Arsenal and Everton getting tanked? Moyes realised that the Lescott situation was poisoning the dressing room and then sanctioned the sale to Kenwright to go ahead and flog him for as much as possible.

Everton did not NEED to sell those players.

Fulham came in and offered Everton 12 million for a player we bought for 8.5 and was crocked. Good business....

If Everton needed to sell players to survive they could have got big money for Arteta, Cahill etc over the previous 5 or 6 years.

Rodwell just signed a 5 year contract... :rolleyes:

PHB wrote: »

Moyes has had to work on pretty much 0 transfer budget for the past few years. A chance for him to flex his muscles in the market would be interesting.

Well he has had money to use from sales and money from kenwright over the past few seasons, so his buying record is pretty good.

Baines (£5 M), Jagielka (£4 M), Pienaar (£2 M), Distin (£4 M), Heitenga (£5M), Bilyaletdinov (£10.5 M), Felliani (£12 M), Yakubu (£11.25 M)... approx £ 54 M in the past few seasons. Lescott deal fianaced Bilyaletdinov, Distin and Heitenga. Andy Johnson sale Fiananced Felliani. Rooney money was used a long time ago....

So Kenwright has backed him in the transfer market. Any player sales go straight back into buying players..

By flexing do you mean buying 30 million pound players? Any manager can do that if they have a rich owner. Proves nothing really...

rarnes1 wrote: »

Maybe not Villa but it's only so long a manager as good as Moyes can remain in a job like Everton.

That's not having a go at Everton but there's no money for him year in year out. I'd imagine he'll be in a bigger job in the next two years.

In a way, Everton have been lucky that through player sales generated by players wanting to leave we've had money to spend in previous seasons. We've seen this summer that when this hasn't happened he has only spent smaller amounts and free signings etc, so i would imagine that is frustrating, but Moyes is loyal and knows what he has to work with. I can't see Moyes wanting to leave for a club of the size of Villa who have similar supporter base and history. He will want to move to a club the size of Man Utd or the likes and fair play to him. I hope he does get that chance as he has earned it..

invinciblePRSTV wrote: »

Project keep 'Everton in the PL until a sugar daddy arrives' has been ongoing at Everton for what, a decade?

In a way surely Moyes will jump ship sooner or later if his main requirement is to only keep Everton competitive whilst balancing the books. It probably gets boring after nearly 10 years. Everton are destined to be 6-10th for perpetuity unless someone buys them? Surely Moyesy will need more then that on his CV to manage someone like Utd.

You can apply that statement to pretty much every premier league club bar a few ala Chelsea, City etc.