Tropical Storm FIONA

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium

Fiona is fighting to retain tropical storm intensity in the wake of powerful Earl, the problem being, she's a bit too close to Earl's shearing wind circulation at this time. The 3-5 day outlook is very uncertain, it's just as likely that Fiona will fall apart as that she may become eventually a hurricane in the Gulf stream. As Earl weakens rapidly around Friday and Saturday, Fiona would have a chance to tap into more of the available energy, if she's still intact at that point. Otherwise the next wave in the series, future TD 9, that would become Gaston possibly, may be the storm to watch (it's at about 10 N 30 W today).

myflipflops

Irishman in Antigua.

We were due to catch the edge of Fiona last night but it never happened. No wind or rain.

maquiladora

myflipflops wrote: »

Irishman in Antigua.

We were due to catch the edge of Fiona last night but it never happened. No wind or rain.

Hope Gaston will miss you too!

myflipflops

maquiladora wrote: »

Hope Gaston will miss you too!

Looks likely.

We have gotten lucky so far really.

Earl was much less violent than we thought it would be when it passed over is. I actually went outside to take pictures at one point but my flash wouldn't work. Some localised flooding around various parts and branches off trees was the worst of the damage.

Su Campu

Fiona's about to hit Bermuda in the next 24hrs.



Here's the webcam

Su Campu

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion


For Friday, September 03, 2010 20:00 UTC


FORECASTER - James Dodgson


NOWCAST
Upper divergence analyses have indicated descending air in our vicinity,
between TS Fiona to our S and weakening Hurricane Earl to the distant
WNW. This has amounted to fine and dry conditions with plenty of
hazy sunshine. There has been evidence over the last couple of days
of a Saharan dust layer (once again looking at analysis charts and
also the skew t plots), and this appears to have been making the
sunshine hazy, in combination with some patchy cirrus. Winds are
now beginning to strengthen as Fiona approaches, with gusts to 20kts
at the airport. At the same time, pressure is beginning to fall
as expected. The persistent SSE flow is giving us another very warm
and humid day with temperatures close to 30C/86F and humidities averaging
near 80%. An arm of convection is being steered towards us from
the SW ahead of Fiona, and this is apparent in the radar imagery.
Models still appear to be initialising Fiona rather poorly, most
probably due to its relatively small size and lack of observations
in the area. As a consequence, the models are rather divergent in
their forecast over the next day or so. Therefore, forecasts are
being driven by the NHC in the short term to cover the impacts of
Fiona. Note that the latest advisory indicates some weakening of
Fiona, and this has been captured in the latest forecast. So looking
ahead to tonight, winds are expected to continue to increase, becoming
gale/near gale (equivalent to tropical storm force winds, 34 knots
or more) during the middle of the night into Saturday morning. Gusts
to 45 knots are possible, especially in and around any bands of showers
that move across the area, as well as E’n portions of the marine
area. Some of the showers could be thundery too. A small craft
is in force for the moment (rough seas outside the reef, 9ft or more),
superseded by the tropical storm warning for tonight into tomorrow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
In the upper levels, troughing associated with Earl tends to steer
Fiona away to the NE. All the while a deep and broad upper trough
remains across the E of CONUS. At the surface NE winds back into
the WNW and ease during Saturday morning as Fiona moves away NE.
As the winds ease, there are however suggestions of changeable weather
conditions remaining, with scattered showers. This appears to be
down to a trough (post-Fiona) that is steered across the area. Note
that there is strong evidence of this trough in the imagery at the
moment, leading to moderate confidence in the forecast. Into Sunday
the trough remains in our area, enhanced by the upper trough on its
W flank. This calls for a rather cloudy day with further showers.
Indices suggest a slight chance of thunder in any heavier shower
cells.

LONG TERM FORECAST
Monday through Tuesday sees the upper trough to our W sharpening
and beginning to move E into our area. This has the effect of enhancing
the surface trough in our area, more especially on Tuesday when indices
show quite a reasonable risk of thunder, with mostly cloudy skies
and intermittent shower activity. Winds will generally be light
to moderate, so winds will not be the main issue with the weather
this time around.

TROPICALS
Hurricane Earl, now a category 1 continues to move up the US Eastern
Seaboard and weaken. Two tropical waves are being monitored for
development in the tropical Atlantic, one near the Cape Verde Island,
the other in the central tropical Atlantic (what is the remains of
Gaston). Finally, some adjustments have been made to TS Fiona, which
has weakened somewhat through today. It is now expected to pass
by Bermuda to the near E, with winds of barely tropical storm strength.
Most likely area for winds reaching 35 knots is in the E/SE of the
marine area.

Su Campu

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion


For Saturday, September 04, 2010 09:00 UTC


FORECASTER - Andrew Hobson


NOWCAST
Tropical Storm Fiona has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
Through last night TS Fiona finally succumbed to the northerly wind
shear created in the wake of Hurricane Earl to the NW. This separated
the low centre from the deep convection. A C-130 aircraft recorded
winds around 32 knots and there was no indication of any potential
for redevelopment, and so after consultation with the NHC the TS
warning was canceled. TD Fiona has brought scattered light showers
at first, and then some moderate showers. TS were observed 30nm to
the S. A warning was put out for the morning. TD Fiona flared up
with a burst of convection, part of this spurred on by a trough extended
from TS Earl. The axis of the convective TS activity moves eastward
with the remnants of Fiona later this morning into afternoon. The
rest of the day will see some sunny breaks developing, although a
few showers remain, albeit lighter, though a chance of thunder returns
tonight as another trough may move in. Winds will be variable at
times but settled on SW in direction later today when Bermuda is
less under the influence of Fiona. The seas have remained around
the 10ft margin with the buoy 400nm to our W, but the buoy 400nm
to our SSE the seas have decreased to around 7ft. Bermuda in the
middle is within that marginal range, long period NW swells to 9ft
from TS Earl could continue at first and so the small craft warning
remains in the 0530 forecast. But as deteriorating seas the rough
seas shouldn’t be around for too long into the afternoon. And so
the small craft warning lasting until the evening is probably quite
generous. Judging by the 07z Ascat pass and observations Bermuda
is within an area of moderate winds and so the warning is bent entirely
on waves.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
Sunday should for the most part be a fine day, though with those
cloudy conditions there is the likelihood of showers, particularly
early and late as diurnal effects take place. The winds remain SW
and so the temperatures remain warm and humid. Winds remain moderate.
Monday looks likely to become more unsettled as a trough extending
NE to SW near the island becomes an influence. The GFS model is keen
to bring this in on Monday, but the UK model develops this feature
on Monday. The forecast is balanced between the models, edging more
towards Tuesday for heavier thunder showers.

LONG TERM FORECAST
Tuesday becomes more unsettled as that trough moves in and flares
up across Bermuda, bringing showers with thunder looking likely.
Overnight into Wednesday the trough is moved southwards by high pressure
building in. And as winds turn northerly this looks to be a real
day of improvement, with clearer skies and cooler and less humid
temperatures settling in for mid week.