Ireland and Albania...

Celly Smunt

super_furry wrote: »

Irish people don't care. They'll sit around a grumble and moan, but then go to the pub, get ****ed up and forget about it.

i'm having a problem now with people doing nothing but giving out about the irish that do nothing,what are YOU going to do?

CJhaughey

dasdog wrote: »

The people who got us in to this mess are the ones trying to get us out and they haven't a fvking clue what they are doing.

They are working very hard to ensure the big time political contributors are kept solvent, without the financial support from their mates in the financial sector they are finished.
The current rules on bankruptcy have the potential to if not finish, seriously damage the political/financial elite in this country.
Thats the reason they are trying to change the bankruptcy law where you cannot hold political power if you have been declared bankrupt.
Thats also the reason that most of the boards of the banks are still staffed by the same people that oversaw the creation of this mess.

ODS

SugarHigh wrote:

I love how people think that a revolt would solve anything. The constant rioting in Greece just made their problems worse while we have been internationally praised for taking the correct measures.

The overthrow by Albanians of their rotten regime did fix their problems: Currently Albania's GDP is 2.2%, the same as Germany's, having ranged between 5% and 7% throughout the last decade. For more, see http://www.indexmundi.com/albania/gdp_real_growth_rate.html

Meanwhile, regarding the FF-driven line of the international praise being heaped upon us for 'taking the correct measures' - perhaps you might want to have a look at one of the main articles running in the New York Times since yesterday, in which it is headlined 'DUBLIN — Can one bank bring down a country?'. Article in full is below.

Of course FF isn't purely to blame - but by being the biggest and most central (and corrupt) part of governance over the last 12 years, they are the biggest part of the problem. However, other vested propertied interests are also critical to the problem as they too are going along with the NAMA scheme , which is designed to keep up the paper value of property at all costs by way of cross-subvention of the rest of the economy. This artificial intervention into the market place hasn't worked and cannot work - Dublin city centre property values despite NAMA are down 50%, the same as Dubai. What NAMA is achieving however, is that by loading the cost of this onto the rest of the economy, it is ensuring that we are unable to write down our cost base level - and so preventing any return to having a competitive export economy.

Perhaps when people in this country look beyond what our own over-paid media commentators with their own vested property interests are saying, people might wake up? Despite sympathetic utterances by the 'stars' / talking heads of our state broadcaster, the reality is that in numerous cases they are paid more than the overpaid elected bureaucrats and top-paid permanent bureaucrats - and so these talking heads are loathe to see the system change. The manner by which our media has been effectively bought doesn't simply stop either with salary cheques in RTÉ. For example, the editor of the Irish Times Geraldine Kennedy may be publicly perceived as being associated with the downfall of Bertie Ahern, yet the reality is that the Irish Times themselves were at the heart of the most rampant speculation - acquiring myblackhole.ie myhome.ie for €50 million, as well as having been heavily dependent on advertising from property. They bought the lie too and compromised as a result, are most likely exposed by way of their commercial and private interests. Just recall how Madam Kennedy of the Irish Times wrote the following in 2006:

"If Germany’s economy does indeed relapse into slowdown, its electorate may have to conclude that the time has finally come to accept a strong dose of its medicine.

In doing so, it can draw inspiration from that medicine’s success in reducing unemployment in Ireland to the lowest level in the EU."

From
http://dublinopinion.com/2010/08/17/geraldine-kennedy-2006-germany-must-follow-irelands-lead-for-the-student-has-now-become-the-master/

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha :rolleyes:

Today the pro-failed establishment outlook of the Irish Times continues unabated. Recent headlines read like a desperate man clinging to tufts of grass while hanging off a cliff, where any vaguely positive straw in the wind is being used to suggest recovery is happening - be it car sales (all imports), or other distractions. Point being, that RTÉ and the Irish Times are massaging as opposed to informing public opinion. Just because dissent is not being properly reported on, doesn't mean its not happening or steaming up. While this suits the increasingly illegitimate regime in Merrion Street and Leinster House, this is not a recipe that can or will last. Down 7.6% circulation in latest figures, The Irish Times has been increasingly abandoned by private sector interests as we simply do not believe it - increasingly its a news paper to reassure civil servants, and bears resemblance to Pravda in the USSR circa 1987.

My own thinking is that people will not voluntarily move on our rotten regime - until they have to. As with some other posters considerations, with further very deep cuts coming down the tracks, I am inclined to agree this could perhaps happen next spring - though equally a hot sweaty summer could also a backdrop (riots / public political disorder tends to have a higher frequency in summer months).

Just as a point of clarity, I don't desire physical political action - however when reform is thwarted such an outcome seems increasingly likely.

In such regard, and in view as to how that country subsequently got back on track, Give me Albania any day :mad:




Support of Anglo Irish Bank Strains Ireland
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
Published: August 31, 2010

DUBLIN — Can one bank bring down a country?

Anglo Irish Bank, the midsize Irish lender whose profligacy has come to symbolize the excesses of the real estate bubble here, is doing its best to find out.

No other country aside from Iceland suffered a banking bust as severe as Ireland’s during the financial crisis. Ireland was also the country that took the most direct route in tackling the problem, by recognizing upfront the bad loans of its devastated banks and transferring them to government ledgers.

Both the United States and Britain avoided such a move by taking stakes in their troubled banks and, in the case of Britain, insuring their worst-performing loans.

Now the Irish government’s strategy is being called into question as its credit rating suffers and its borrowing costs resume their upward trajectory. Ireland’s struggle to cope with its mounting bank losses could well be a harbinger for other parts of Europe and for the United States as stuttering economic growth and stagnant housing markets put further strain on bank balance sheets.

Anglo Irish, which on Tuesday reported a first-half loss of 8.2 billion euros ($10.4 billion) also said the government had injected an additional 8 billion euros ($10.16 billion) into the bank, bringing total aid so far to 22 billion euros.

Mike Aynsley, the bank’s chief executive, said Tuesday that he expected the government’s total investment in the bank to be about 25 billion euros ($31.75 billion). He added that commercial property, the bank’s core lending market, which is already down 60 percent, had not yet reached bottom.

“Anytime you see a correction like that, you will see carnage,” he said. “But we think that the 25 billion euros will be largely sufficient.”

Analysts here expect the bank’s defunct loans to hit 35 billion euros, or about 22 percent of Ireland’s gross domestic product — a hard-to-believe figure, given that Anglo Irish at its peak was just the third-largest bank in Ireland. In 2008, total Irish bank lending to households and nonfinancial companies was more than 200 percent of G.D.P. — by far the highest such ratio in the euro zone.

The growing losses at Anglo Irish and other Irish banks are expected to cost the government 80 billion to 90 billion euros, according to Standard & Poor’s, which says 35 billion euros will be needed for Anglo Irish — a figure the government and Mr. Aynsley say is significantly overstated.

The ratings agency said that the country’s banking liabilities would push its debt-to-G.D.P. ratio to 113 percent in 2012, higher than Spain’s and Belgium’s and approaching the levels of countries like Italy and Greece.

Last week, S.& P. downgraded Ireland’s credit rating to AA-minus from AA, a change that has driven the already steep spread, or risk premium, on 10-year Irish government bonds to new highs of 5.5 percentage points — second in the euro zone only to Greece’s 11 percentage points.

“This is out of control and the markets see it now,” said Peter Mathews, an independent banking and real estate consultant here, who for the last year has been waging a furious one-man crusade, warning of Anglo Irish’s escalating losses and calling for the bank to be liquidated — with bond holders, not the Irish taxpayer, taking the hit.

“How bad can it get?” Mr. Mathews said. “Irish debt paper could stop being tradable, and the outside agencies like the European Union and the International Monetary Fund might have to come in.”

Mr. Mathews’s view in this regard represents an extreme. Economists at the Economic and Social Research Institute, an independent organization here, cite the government’s cash cushion of about 40 billion euros — much of it set aside at the outset of the crisis — as a crucial safety net that separates Ireland from Greece.

The government, for its part, argues that Ireland’s approach to bad loans — taking them off the balance sheets of the banks and then assuming responsibility for them — was correct.

“Our banks would have probably assumed zombie-like status if we had delayed in recognizing these impairments,” said John Corrigan, the chief executive of the country’s debt management agency. Part of his organization is the National Asset Management Agency, the government group that has spent the year buying bad loans from banks.

“The downgrade was deeply disappointing to us, but we still have a better credit rating than Italy and Portugal,” he said. And international bond investors, who own about 85 percent of the government’s debt, continued to buy its paper, he said.

Will the Anglo Irish loans lead to a buyers’ strike by investors?

“No,” said Mr. Corrigan with a vigorous shake of his head. “We have enough liquidity to take us well into the second quarter next year.”

While Mr. Mathews and the government may be opposed on how to handle the problem, they agree on how absurd the lending practices at Anglo Irish were.

Even by the standards of the global banking collapse, Anglo Irish stood out. From a loan book of about 75 billion euros when the government took over in 2009, Anglo Irish says that it has only about 12 billion euros in loans that it classifies as performing. The bank is expected to transfer 36 billion euros in troubled loans to the asset management agency — about half its existing loans.

“It was mad — a credit cocaine run,” said Mr. Mathews, his voice rising in frustration.

He was standing outside a gravel-strewn 25-acre plot, flanked by a housing project and the rough Dublin docklands. In 2006, as Ireland’s real estate frenzy reached its peak, a group of developers paid 412 million euros ($523.2 million) for this industrial site, backed by a 300 million euro loan from Anglo Irish.

Mr. Mathews, a former banker who now advises real estate developers, estimates that the land may now be worth only 20 million euros — if it can be sold at all.

It is not just in Ireland that the bank’s aggressive lending stood out. Through its private client division in Boston, Anglo Irish was one of the most wildly eager property lenders in the United States. It financed the construction of skyscrapers in Chicago and shopping centers in Boston, not to mention lending more than $500 million to a series of troubled and in some cases failed real estate projects in New York.

Most notorious of those was a top-of-the-market, $393 million mortgage in 2007 to the Apthorp, a luxury apartment building in New York that has been home to celebrities like the writer Nora Ephron and the actor Al Pacino.

After a series of legal disputes, the building’s developers are struggling to convert the complex into an upscale condominium. Anglo Irish recently said that rents on the units would be paid directly to the bank — an indication, analysts say, that the project’s developers may be facing further financing strains.

“It was just the height of hubris,” Mr. Mathews said as he drove away from the deserted development site in Dublin. “And why should Citizen Joe and Mary pick up the tab for this when it was the bondholders that had all the aces in their hand?”


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/business/global/01anglo.html?_r=1&dbk

Kasabian

tl:dr

I thought we were playing Armenia

ODS

Kasabian wrote: »

tl:dr

I thought we were playing Armenia

That joke appeared yesterday in the first 10 posts - it was funny then / your joke fail

Kasabian

ODS wrote: »

That joke appeared yesterday in the first 10 posts - it was funny then / your joke fail

That is why I said it was too long , didn't read.

Ok now ?

Well done Starbelgrade , kudos to you and your wit.

ODS

Kasabian wrote: »

That is why I said it was too long , didn't read.

Ok now ?

Well done Starbelgrade , kudos to you and your wit.

Ah there pet, pay some attention and you might be able to keep up; otherwise if threads are too long, why post a comment?

Alternatively, Beano subscriptions that way

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>

prinz

ODS wrote: »

Prior to '97 Albania wasn't known as a rebellious country. As topper75 says, this can't continue indefinitely...

Albanians have been doing nothing else for at least a century. They just were never very successful. They had resistance movements during WW2 and again under the communist regime for 50 odd years. When you have that in your recent history overthrowing a civilian government, without an army/state security apparatus to maintain control, is child's play.

Kasabian

ODS wrote: »

Ah there pet, pay some attention and you might be able to keep up; otherwise if threads are too long, why post a comment?

Alternatively, Beano subscriptions that way

---

>

I wanted to post my joke.

* must renew Beano subscription

* must not react to arrogant response from ODS.

* oh! a rabbit

Sorry what were you saying?

Kasabian

Anyway my thoughts.

Any sort of revolt / civil unrest will only exasperate the problems we are having in this country.
It is not within these shores that decisions on our future will be made if we as a nation rise up.

All the major economic decisions will be made by others as is the case for all bankrupts.
Any comparison with Albania is futile IMO and ultimately this country will pull it's self out of the mire in parallel with the global economy..

What we need to do express our dis-satisfaction with the shower that put us in this sate, when next at the polling station.
Also we need ensure that the next shower in are placed in a transparent enviornment to be judged by the people who but them there.

Politicians should be answerable to the people and this enforced by the laws of the land.

ODS

prinz wrote: »

Albanians have been doing nothing else for at least a century. They just were never very successful. They had resistance movements during WW2 and again under the communist regime for 50 odd years. When you have that in your recent history overthrowing a civilian government, without an army/state security apparatus to maintain control, is child's play.

Okay maybe I am being taken a bit too literally, but fact is they weren't known as a rebellious country. Of itself this may have been a slight over simplification on my part - yet by the same token, historically Ireland hasn't been less rebellious than Albania, whether or not one agrees with the manner by which political violence occurred throughout the past 100s of years, up until and including the 1990s in the North.

Equally, by your reasoning, it also could be argued that as our state has very limited armed resources by which to protect itself, an overthrow would require as equal an effort as that achieved by the people who were living in Albania, a state that had its disposal the inheritance of major cold war military infrastructure by which its regime could be protected.

prinz

ODS wrote: »

Equally, by your reasoning, it also could be argued that as our state has very limited armed resources by which to protect itself, an overthrow would require as equal an effort as that achieved by the people who were living in Albania, a state that had its disposal the inheritance of major cold war military infrastructure by which its regime could be protected.

Simply put you cannot compare the two. The majority of the Albanian population lost basically every penny they had, they were ripped off by corrupt officials who were pocketing the money directly and using it in drugs and arms deals. The government fell. A new government took charge, people still revolted. It had nothing to do with punishing the government or the State. It was people seizing the opportunity in the chaos to make some money back. What happened was criminal gangs and armed militias taking over parts of the country with no rule of law left whatsoever and only to one end, profit for themselves. It ended up in the UN bringing a force in to restore calm and stop the anarchy and basically resulted in the Kosovo mess. Yes, let's go down that route :rolleyes:

ODS

Kasabian wrote: »

Anyway my thoughts.

Any sort of revolt / civil unrest will only exasperate the problems we are having in this country.
It is not within these shores that decisions on our future will be made if we as a nation rise up.

All the major economic decisions will be made by others as is the case for all bankrupts.
Any comparison with Albania is futile IMO and ultimately this country will pull it's self out of the mire in parallel with the global economy..

Well I do appreciate you are setting out your stall. But I totally disagree:

ultimately this country will pull it's self out of the mire in parallel with the global economy

To my mind, this is the same Bertie logic that it was Lehmans and the international recession that was primarily responsible for our mess. It wasn't - we were, and in particular those that headed the regime that have led us to where we are

Any sort of revolt / civil unrest will only exasperate the problems we are having in this country.
It is not within these shores that decisions on our future will be made if we as a nation rise up.

Albania seems to be doing perfectly fine thank you very much - GDP currently at 2.2%, having ranged between 5 - 7% over the last decade. This they have achieved on the back of a revolution, and without international economic insulation such as EU membership and the Euro.

Albania, Iceland - countries that are either doing relatively very well or on the road to recovery. They don't have the cancer that is FF or the poison that is NAMA where short-sighted stupid elites are bought off to the cost of the rest of the economy and society. See the difference?

prinz

ODS wrote: »

Albania seems to be doing perfectly fine thank you very much - GDP currently at 2.2%, having ranged between 5 - 7% over the last decade. This they have achieved on the back of a revolution, and without international economic insulation such as EU membership and the Euro.

It wasn't a revolution.

ODS

prinz wrote: »

Simply put you cannot compare the two. The majority of the Albanian population lost basically every penny they had, they were ripped off by corrupt officials who were pocketing the money

That sounds remarkably familiar to a certain other kleptocracy in which I have been living for the last while. I am trying to spot the difference, you know

Kosovo is a distraction, and simply because it occurred shortly after was not a result of the 1997 uprising - the rampant and ugly breakout of nationalism in the demise of Yugoslavia had much more to do with it; as far back as 1945 Marshall Tito of Yugoslavia had in fact agreed to largely release Kosovo to Albania, before reneging.


By the way fellows, can either of you tell me how the weather is down in 65-66 Mount Street today - its sunny around the rest of the city

prinz

ODS wrote: »

Kosovo is a distraction, and simply because it occurred shortly after was not a result of the 1997 uprising -

Who do you think were busy emptying police and army bases in Albania of weapons and ammunition? And pocketing money for themselves? What happened in Albania was not a widespread revolution of the people, it was public unrest hijacked by scumbags for their own gain and profit. Albania today has as much the UN and Italy to thank as anything else, as it was they who restored order for the Albanian people.

ODS

prinz wrote: »

It wasn't a revolution.

Up to 2000 dead doesn't strike me as a picnic.

And just in case I am being misunderstood as advocating revolution, as already stated, I don't desire physical political action - yet when reform is thwarted such an outcome seems increasingly likely.

prinz

ODS wrote: »

Up to 2000 dead doesn't strike me as a picnic..

It was criminal gangs murdering and looting and getting what they could while they could, and clashes with the police and army. The Albanian people had already legitimately forced a change of government. What happened after that was opportunism.

ODS

prinz wrote: »

Who do you think were busy emptying police and army bases in Albania of weapons and ammunition? And pocketing money for themselves? What happened in Albania was not a widespread revolution of the people, it was public unrest hijacked by scumbags for their own gain and profit. Albania today has as much the UN and Italy to thank as anything else, as it was they who restored order for the Albanian people.

Okay, what we can agree on is:

- Major civil unrest broke out after maladminstration by a government that encouraged a population into unsustainable speculation on a bubble

- This was not preferable and should have been avoided - provided the government had intervened responsibly so as to prevent such circumstances arising. But for their own reasons they didn't - just as our own regime is failing to do.

- During situations of civil unrest, ugly social behaviour occurs with 'scumbags' stealing and looting whatever they can - be it in Albania in '97 or our own looters that availed of Easter Week 1916.

- Ultimately the great majority of the Albanian population benefitted from the regime replacement that occurred, with GDP between 5 - 7% for the last decade, and at 2.2% during the current recession.

- Public order was restored in 1997 with the assistance of outside states - a scenario that would also likely to repeat itself if such unrest were to occur here. Equally notable is that those outside interests did not force the previous discredited regime back onto the Albanian electorate; I don't see why it should be any different here.

ODS

prinz wrote: »

The Albanian people had already legitimately forced a change of government.

Ok, so how do you reckon that should be achieved here?

prinz

ODS wrote: »

Ok, so how do you reckon that should be achieved here?

(a) by voting when the time comes - turnout at the next general election will be interesting (b) general public strike.... which will only serve to hurt the people striking most tbh.

ODS

prinz wrote: »

(a) by voting when the time comes - turnout at the next general election will be interesting

You wait if you want to - I am not convinced others will have the choice.

prinz wrote: »

(b) general public strike.... which will only serve to hurt the people striking most tbh.

On this latter point we agree. A general public sector strike is unlikely to work. Moreover had the unions come out early and declared that the cuts would have to start at the top, they would have credibility - but they didn't, so they don't have credibility in the community outside the public sector.

The first point seems to me the more important to consider - do you really believe the population will wait until election, given the deterioration of governance of this country by the day? As said I am most certainly not convinced.

Amhran Nua

ODS wrote: »

but what I am wondering is, when are we as a people going to grow some balls???

If by balls you mean burning pregnant women to death as they did in Greece, hopefully never.

Copper23

Wibbs wrote: »

The other issue of course is what do you do after? Lets say it's Viva la Revolution next Tuesday, then what? What do you replace these structures and some of the morons and criminals in them with? More of the same? Different names same shít?

Obviously some of these muppets have to see cell time. Whatabout the debt? Personally I would have let Anglo fail while shoring up the other banks. I would also change how government is run in this country. I'd get rid of proportional representation for a start. It's perfect for parish pump politics. I'd also change how ministers are appointed. As it stands very very few(if any) of our ministers are experts on the portfolios they're given. I'd completely restructure the civil service. Cut out the dead wood and dead money. Ditto for the health service.

But WHAT would you do? That's the problem in Ireland... FF are probably idiots but does anyone think any of the others up ther in Dublin will do any different or better? NO!

And it's exactly the reasons you're highlighting above... lodads of "Ideas" but not one "actual idea" in there...

The oppoisition always has a "Portfolio for Change" or "Different Policies" but push them and they have nothing... thats whats wrong with the country.

People complain of voting in FF, yeah, they are idiots, I don't want to vote for them but I'm sure as hell not putting FG in the hot-seat... they come off more incompetant than anyone, therein lies the problem, when people revolt they usually have someone ready to replace those in power, someone with new/different ideas.... who have we?

fontanalis

Amhran Nua wrote: »

If by balls you mean burning pregnant women to death as they did in Greece, hopefully never.

Damn right, there's way too many "take to the streets" nonsesnes floating around. real balls would actually be voting for someone based on competence not their surname.

fontanalis

Copper23 wrote: »

But WHAT would you do? That's the problem in Ireland... FF are probably idiots but does anyone think any of the others up ther in Dublin will do any different or better? NO!

And it's exactly the reasons you're highlighting above... lodads of "Ideas" but not one "actual idea" in there...

The oppoisition always has a "Portfolio for Change" or "Different Policies" but push them and they have nothing... thats whats wrong with the country.

People complain of voting in FF, yeah, they are idiots, I don't want to vote for them but I'm sure as hell not putting FG in the hot-seat... they come off more incompetant than anyone, therein lies the problem, when people revolt they usually have someone ready to replace those in power, someone with new/different ideas.... who have we?

So what you're saying is you will reward incompetence with voting them in again?

Copper23

fontanalis wrote: »

So what you're saying is you will reward incompetence with voting them in again?

No, where did I say that?

There are more than 2 parties and there in indepandants, Funnily enough in our deprived country we are allowed vote for anyone I want...

What I'm saying is here is the choice....
Vote for FF... they got us in this mess... why vote them back in?

Vote FG... Do we REALLY believe things would be different if they were in charge/if they ARE in charge in future? I certainly don't.

Vote Someone else
Greens/PD's have largely shown themselves not to stand for a whole lot other than their own interests of getting into government to work on that state pension, in terms of voting them in hoping they will hold FF to ransom... yeah, that worked...

Vote Independant:
A good protest vote but again, how many independants can/will make change? In an ideal world they would and you can only hope with your vote but will it happen?



I'm not saying WHO I vote for... honestly.. FF don't impress me one bit especially not those running in my constituency.

What I'm talking about is what are the options. I don't believe we wouldn't be in the same position if not WORSE with FG in there. I don't trust them one bit, they look even more clueless than FF, I don't want them in there. I don't want FF to remain there... nobody else is big enough, strong enough to win through on their own... so its not a great situation to be in! Thats what I'm getting at.

Right now... there's nobody I want to vote for in all honestly... In an election I'll have to pick to at least put my mark on things one way or other but honestly, no, I don't see any individuals or groups which inspire me with hope right now.