Greetings' New Betting Log

UrbanSea

Going for a bit of a risky one here in the shape of
Talkhees 7.10 Wolverhampton 14/1
Hardly any form to brag about on 3 all weather maidens over 6 and 7 furlongs so far but its opening handicap mark is far too small to ignore. It isn't often you see a horse carrying the blue colours of Hamden Al Maktoum run off a mark of 56,and this filly is bred to be fairly smart over sprint distances,out of Haydock Spring winner Invincible winner and out of a mare by Dayjur,who won the same group 1 race,along with the Nunthorpe,Kings' Stand and Group 2 Temple stakes. Running in handicap company for the first time I can see her outrunning her low handicap rating for an in form Brian Meehan yard.
Stake:5 euro each way
Balance after stake:Minus 270 unfortunately.

UrbanSea

Dream Ahead 2.25 Newmarket 3/1
Decided to go for this after battling whether or not I should. This Dewhurst looks like one of the top 2 year old races for a long time with three unbeaten colts going in,in the form of my selection,Godolphin's Champagne Stakes winner Saammid and the unbeaten son of Galileo Frankel. Dream Ahead is currently a well backed second favourite behind the odds on Frankel,but this could well be a very open race,despite the rave reviews Frankel has been recieving from Henry Cecil.
An argument to be made against Frankel is that he hasn't beaten a whole lot,but that's irrelevant,you can only beat what's put in front of you,and has done it very nicely,and is as low as 2/1 for next years' Guineas,and will be shorter if he can win tomorrow. However,my colt is unpenalised for an impressive Group 1 win in France before absolutely bolting home over 6 furlongs in the Middle Park Stakes,again a group 1,beating Strong Suit,a one time favourite for the Guineas,by a huge 9 lengths. A horse who can win over 6 by 9 lengths is going to be something seriosuly special,and a dual group 1 winner on level weights cannot be ignored at 3/1. Frankie Dettori is seriously keen on this boy too,as he said in an interview the other day,and is the one to beat in my eyes,and is the highest on BHA ratings. Even if it loses,this is still going to be a race to treasure.
Stake:20 euro
Balance after stake:Minus 290

UrbanSea

I feel absolutely sick to my stomach,was about to put up Ahtoug at Wolverhampton who just won at 5/1.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

I feel absolutely sick to my stomach,was about to put up Ahtoug at Wolverhampton who just won at 5/1.

I had that very feeling yesterday with Some horse in a maiden at Brighton. Form behind Abjaar..:(

Edit
I meant Nottingham. Defence of Duress. Didn't tip it in my log cause there was no prices and then forgot about it

UrbanSea

Makes you wanna cry. Talkhees is fifth at Wolverhampton. Perhaps one for next time out if off the same mark,but would be surprised if it's in the Al Maktoum colours.

UrbanSea

Two small bets on the Cesarewitch.
Simonside 66/1 2.50 each way
Swingkeel 2.50 each way 28/1

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Two small bets on the Cesarewitch.
Simonside 66/1 2.50 each way
Swingkeel 2.50 each way 28/1

I was considering Simonside after his effort in the Trial. He's out of the handicap and with a bug rider on in a 30 runner 2m2f handicap I had to look else where but he's not with out a chance (IMO). Good luck

UrbanSea

Thanks Nulty,said I'd take a chance anyway. Dream Ahead and Delegator are beaten,both seriously disappointing. I know I'm about to hit a winner soon.

UrbanSea

Apologies lads this one doesn't get a write up but in a hurry(sister needs a lift)
Bath 3.15 Bravo Bravo
13/2
Stake:10

Liverpool to beat everton 2/1
Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

Both lose. If this hits the minus 350 I'm stopping :pac:
One for today is
Cheltenian 5.15 Punchestown 11/2
Not much reasoning behind this. Was looking at this one last night as I rate Mikey Fogarty as one of the best claimers I have ever seen. A useful looking horse from a yard that can ready one and I said I'd look at the betting in the morning. 4/1 from 40./1 with BET365 and was 11/2 with them before I started typing this,but price still available with Lads.
Stake:10 euro
Balance:Minus 340Oh dear lord.

UrbanSea

greetings wrote: »

Both lose. If this hits the minus 350 I'm stopping :pac:

Fuuck that,I'm not a quitter. :pac:
Durante Alighieri 2.30 Yarmouth 10/1
What a nicely bred colt out of one of the best sires in the world Galileo(a half brother of Sea the Stars,sire of multiple group 1 winners generally at distances up to and surpassing 12 furlongs such as Soldier of Fortune,Cape Blanco,New Approach to name a few) but can obviously produce some stunning 2 year old colts on shorter distances(anyone hear of a horse called Frankel) and out of a a listed winning mare over 12 by Darshaan(he himself a top middle distance sire,most notably sire of Dalakhani). However,Galileo himself won his maiden over a mile at 2 and so the mile is an obvious choice to start this colt out at. Henry Cecil is well able to saddle a first time out winner and in the past I've really taken notice of Galileo bred 2 year olds he has,and seems to have a fantastic strike rate with them. Cecil introduced Bullet Train in this same race last year and was a first time out winner before going on to be a group winner over an extended 13 furlongs,a trip which this horse will probably tackle before too long. Clearly promising,he fetched 475,000 guineas as a yearling. This looks a hot maiden but the favourite is opposable at such long odds on and I hope this bad boy can make a winning introduction,in what looks a fairly strong maiden,with Godolphin and Andrew Balding having promising looking debutants aswell.
Stake:7.50 each way
Balance:Minus 355

UrbanSea

Cecil and Mongan win the first with a newcomer,hopefully that's a good omen.

UrbanSea

greetings wrote: »

Fuuck that,I'm not a quitter. :pac:
Durante Alighieri 2.30 Yarmouth 10/1
What a nicely bred colt out of one of the best sires in the world Galileo(a half brother of Sea the Stars,sire of multiple group 1 winners generally at distances up to and surpassing 12 furlongs such as Soldier of Fortune,Cape Blanco,New Approach to name a few) but can obviously produce some stunning 2 year old colts on shorter distances(anyone hear of a horse called Frankel) and out of a a listed winning mare over 12 by Darshaan(he himself a top middle distance sire,most notably sire of Dalakhani). However,Galileo himself won his maiden over a mile at 2 and so the mile is an obvious choice to start this colt out at. Henry Cecil is well able to saddle a first time out winner and in the past I've really taken notice of Galileo bred 2 year olds he has,and seems to have a fantastic strike rate with them. Cecil introduced Bullet Train in this same race last year and was a first time out winner before going on to be a group winner over an extended 13 furlongs,a trip which this horse will probably tackle before too long. Clearly promising,he fetched 475,000 guineas as a yearling. This looks a hot maiden but the favourite is opposable at such long odds on and I hope this bad boy can make a winning introduction,in what looks a fairly strong maiden,with Godolphin and Andrew Balding having promising looking debutants aswell.
Stake:7.50 each way
Balance:Minus 355

Going is heavy to soft,I didn't think it was that soft. That can only be good for my boy,who is bred to run well over longer distances. I'd definitely lay the favourite if I'd money in my betfair account.

coughlan08

greetings wrote: »

Going is heavy to soft,I didn't think it was that soft. That can only be good for my boy,who is bred to run well over longer distances. I'd definitely lay the favourite if I'd money in my betfair account.

you can bet on him not to win on pp @ 2/1...?
he can be layed at 1.45 on bf,same thing really...


edit he can be backed at 11/4 not to win now...

UrbanSea

Thanks Coughlan,didn't even see that. And thank god I didn't,favourite in.

UrbanSea

Crying for a winner soon :pac:
Two good Beginners' Chases at Punchestown today,and was tempted to go for Saludos in the first,and was just about to do a write up on Boston Angel but I'm going to write up a reserve and if he doesn't go he doesn't go,stake will be refunded.
Winston Churchill 3.50 Punchestown 66/1Sporting bet
Can't believe the price of this bad boy seeing as the only other bookies that have him priced at the moment have him at 20/1(coral) and is trading at 24/1 on betfair.
Just two starts to his name under rules but was a bit disappointing,first when favourite in a bumper over 2 miles at Listowel and secondly when not an unfancied 9/1 shot in a 2 mile maiden hurdle at Gowran at the start of the month where he finished seventh. I don't think 2 miles is ideal for the son of presenting and today's trip of two mile 4 would be much more suitable and the switch to fences is sure to bring about improvement,as he won his only start in a maiden point to point(3 miles). Good to yielding ground shouldn't be too much of a hinderence,although the ground he disappointed in his bumper on,the extra distance should help.
I always look out for horses who are switches to fences so early on in their career as they are clearly made for the bigger obstacles,or so their trainer feels.This lad wears the famous Ann and Alan Potts colours associated with Henry De Bromhead and Sizing Europe,and if this lad gets into the race,I think 66/1 is crazy.
Stake:5 each way
Balance:Minus 365
How I'd love to see this lad go in and change that :pac:

UrbanSea

Winston Churchill doesn't go,last price sportingbet had was 16/1

UrbanSea

Harting Hill 6.10 Kempton 7/1
A horse I was going to back last time out thankfully didn't,he finished 7th over C&D,but was just beaten about 3 lengths. Down a further pound today and has Richard Hughes on board,a jockey going flat out to catch Paul Hanagan for the jockey championship so I'd have him on any horse of mine at the minute. Is just 2 pounds higher than it's last win over course and distance which came a month ago,and he clearly loves this track,as last month's win was his third time to be victorious at Kempton over 7.It'll need to be a career best but isn't the strongest of handicaps in the world.
Stake 5 each way
Balance:minus 365

UrbanSea

Finishes second,a well backed 9/2 joint favourite.
Balance:Minus 351.25

UrbanSea

Going for a small each way in the next race on
Hawdyerwheesht 7.40 Kempton 11/1
This looks like a fairly hot handicap,but with 8 runners has a nice chance of running into the first 3. The Godolphin horse is the one to beat and is totally unexposed,but I'm hoping it can be flattered by it's mark of 80.My selection won a fairly decent 7 furlong Epsom maiden before he was tried in a Listed race won by Ladies are Forever of a featherweight,but never got into it. Rated 82,and as said before paying out on the first three home,I think he has a good chance of running into a place at a nice price
Stake:5 each way
Balance:Minus 361.25

UrbanSea

No good.
2.30 Sedgefield Hollo Ladies 5/2.
Stake:40
Reasoning later,have to dash have class.