Buying now more mad than during the boom?

average_runner

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

erm...i care.

if you bought a house today for €300k and in 2 years time you could have bought it for €200k you wouldn't care?!

House prices arent droping 33% every two years mate, look up your facts before you talk rubbish!

noclue1

Prices are still falling

Why buy something that will be cheaper next week next month next year

Falling prices means cheaper mortgage, delaying purchase means bigger deposit. So while if buy now you sign up for a 35 yr mortgage, John and Mary on the same salary as you who live next door who waited get a 25 year mortgage. That's an extra ten years of the banks mortgage

The big problem with all the talk is that house price stats are based on asking prices not completed sale prices. Which tend to be 15% below asking.

House price falls have slowed but who says with a debt default and when the moratorium on repossessions lapses that they do not accelerate again or alternatively we have a japan property crash with falling prices continuing for 10 years

Idbatterim

Ill tell you one possible false assumption alot of people make and its that PS jobs are for life and their pay wont be cut again, I wouldnt bet on it! If the Germans / Eu have to bail us out, what do you reckon the chances of the PS being let off the hook are?!

Theboinkmaster

average_runner wrote: »

So let me get this right!

Your going to save 1,166.66p every month for next 5 years!
Pay your rent on top of that.
And you expect house value to drop by 230,000.

Sorry not sure how your on that much of salary with your calculations there.

Get your head out of fairy land cause house prices at 400k wont drop that much my friend! Havent even drop that much in last 3 years when most the crash stats show the biggest percentage fall. The fall is getting slower now !!!

Mine was 435 and only gone to 385 now, know that because 2 were sold at that price in last few weeks

Yes i live with my girlfriend and we can comfortably save over €1k each per month, whilst still paying rent.

And yes i think property prices can fall that much.

Those figures were illustrative only - but im sure we all agree property prices can only go one way in the short to medium term future.

eagle10

It's all about timing and whats right for the buyer.
Thats my opinion whats right for a may not be right fof b or c circumstances change.

I have studied house prices in Galway city the seem to have stableised they might fall alot more they may not if it suits someone to buy a home when they do and it's what they want so be it why should someone on a forum give a fu"k and belittle them?

Whats it to anyone else who buys what?????????

If someone feels renting is dead money and they are paying off someone elses mortgage thats thier opinion and thats how they feel ........ fair play to them

If some is happy to rent and hope prices fall more than what they would have paid renting over the coming years fair play to them let them off

Theboinkmaster
If magentas bought a house and is happy why does that bother you?
Are you jealous? maybe you begrudge people getting on?(this is ireland a real begrudging country)
Why have you a problem with magentas buying a house and being happy magentas has giving valid points to back up thier decision and is obviously happy why should anyone have a problem with that.....


Everyone is entitled to thier view and opinion but why more or less ridicule someone for buying a home just because you dont agree

Theboinkmaster

average_runner wrote: »

House prices arent droping 33% every two years mate, look up your facts before you talk rubbish!

Those figures are illustrative where do i say they're factual?

My point is valid whether you use those figures or a house now at €900k dropping to €850k next year.

Don't be so aggressive 'mate' :rolleyes:

eagle10

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Those figures are illustrative where do i say they're factual?

My point is valid whether you use those figures or a house now at €900k dropping to €850k next year.

Don't be so aggressive 'mate' :rolleyes:

Use factual figures so MATE enlighten us

Theboinkmaster

eagle10 wrote: »

It's all about timing and whats right for the buyer.
Thats my opinion whats right for a may not be right fof b or c circumstances change.

I have studied house prices in Galway city the seem to have stableised they might fall alot more they may not if it suits someone to buy a home when they do and it's what they want so be it why should someone on a forum give a fu"k and belittle them?

Whats it to anyone else who buys what?????????

If someone feels renting is dead money and they are paying off someone elses mortgage thats thier opinion and thats how they feel ........ fair play to them

If some is happy to rent and hope prices fall more than what they would have paid renting over the coming years fair play to them let them off

Theboinkmaster
If magentas bought a house and is happy why does that bother you?
Are you jealous? maybe you begrudge people getting on?(this is ireland a real begrudging country)
Why have you a problem with magentas buying a house and being happy magentas has giving valid points to back up thier decision and is obviously happy why should anyone have a problem with that.....


Everyone is entitled to thier view and opinion but why more or less ridicule someone for buying a home just because you dont agree

It's doesn't bother me - magentas came onto a public forum and asked the question "Do ye think I'm mad???"

I'm responding to that question.

Theboinkmaster

eagle10 wrote: »

Use factual figures so MATE enlighten us

My point is that house prices are falling.

FACT

eagle10

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

It's doesn't bother me - magentas came onto a public forum and asked the question "Do ye think I'm mad???"

I'm responding to that question.

Oh im so sorry I most be oversensitive I taught you were ridiculing magentas!!!!!!!!!!

Good luck with the renting and saving 12k a year its great to see that at least 1 person is in a good financial situation in Ireland...........

Just for pig ireon if prices rise tomorrow would you buy wednesday?

eagle10

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

My point is that house prices are falling.

FACT

Give us figures

give us factual figures!!!!!!!

Dublin figure dont represent the whole country compile some figures for galway city give me some fact to read

Theboinkmaster

eagle10 wrote: »

Give us figures

give us factual figures!!!!!!!

Dublin figure dont represent the whole country compile some figures for galway city give me some fact to read

why? do you dispute the fact that house prices are reducing? here's the first result from a google search:

http://www.finfacts.ie/biz10/irelandhouseprices.htm

eagle10

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

why? do you dispute the fact that house prices are reducing? here's the first result from a google search:

http://www.finfacts.ie/biz10/irelandhouseprices.htm

I dont dispute falling house prices..... Idispute your ridicoulus figures as I said before I have been following Galway city house prices over the last year and there aint no massive drop


Unless you can give me figures that say otherwise you are avoiding my original question

danbohan

eagle10 wrote: »

Give us figures

give us factual figures!!!!!!!

Dublin figure dont represent the whole country compile some figures for galway city give me some fact to read

it must be frank fahy , i cant think anybody else who could be so removed from reality!

Theboinkmaster

eagle10 wrote: »

I dont dispute falling house prices..... Idispute your ridicoulus figures as I said before I have been following Galway city house prices over the last year and there aint no massive drop


Unless you can give me figures that say otherwise you are avoiding my original question

what's your original question?!

i don't think you're reading my posts - my figures were illustrative to try to show that by waiting you'd save money. do you not understand that? i wasn't stating that galway house prices would come down €100k in 2 years ffs.

eagle10

danbohan wrote: »

it must be frank fahy , i cant think anybody else who could be so removed from reality!

Follow Galway city prices get your facts straight

eagle10

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

what's your original question?!

i don't think you're reading my posts - my figures were illustrative to try to show that by waiting you'd save money. do you not understand that? i wasn't stating that galway house prices would come down €100k in 2 years ffs.

Ah sure thers no point trying to tell someone like you anything...

your right your right your right your right

Got to go would love to hear from you again instead of illustrative figures I would love some factual figures that represent Galway city..............

ntlbell

eagle10 wrote: »

I dont dispute falling house prices..... Idispute your ridicoulus figures as I said before I have been following Galway city house prices over the last year and there aint no massive drop


Unless you can give me figures that say otherwise you are avoiding my original question

What has the year on year price drops for galway city since 2006?

What indicators have you seen in Galway to suggest the falls won't continue?

Onthe3rdDay

It all depends where you are on your life journey. If you buy a house and that's going to be your long term home then you're not mad as long as you can afford it!!!

If you're just buying to get on the property ladder as some still want to then you're a lunatic.

As for the argument about Galway prices. We're at the start of the fall and not the end. Galway and the west in general are not going to fare too well unfortunately.

BrownianMotion

Sure doesn't everyone know Galway is different.

Rising employment, a stable Galway specific bank doling out the credit. Not to mention the impending population boom in the area.

Why wouldn't house prices rise again??

Back on topic - I think it's clear there are two schools of thought, those who look at a house purchase as an emotional decision and those who look at it logically.
Reading these type of threads over the last few weeks it looks like neither side will drag the other around to their way of thinking.

who_ru

i think in pure economic terms house prices can only continue to fall.

the minister for finance has already indicated that a further 3 billion euro will be taken out of the economy by way of budgets cuts in december's budget.

it's taken as given that interest rates will continue to rise in the medium to long term. irish financial instituitons, as we know only too well, are increasing interest rates independently of the ECB.

unfortunately Anglo is bringing us perilously close to being totally bankrupt and effectively being run by brussels. The Govt has decided that it is the citizens of this country and not the bondholders who will pay the debts of Anglo. More money will have to be raised via tax increases to pay this debt. property taxes and water charges are on the horizon, further reducing people's incomes. Energy costs are increasing 5% from October 1.

Unemployment is offically 14.4% or thereabouts, when you add in the number of self employed people out of work but who cannot sign on, and all those doing fas courses etc, i reckon real unemployment is close to 20%. is there any reason to suggest unemployment will not continue to grow in the long term?

there are approx 300,000 vacant housing units in the country.

an entire generation of young people, first time buyers if you like, are effectively being forced to leave the country to find work. unemployment amongst young people- under 24yrs old- is probably around 50%.

irish banks are basically broke - they depend on the irish people via Govt cash injections to stay open. credit will never be available again like it was in the bubble years, mainly because we now have a regulator who actually does his job.

so against this background is it reasonable to suggest that house prices in ireland will continue to fall for many years ahead?

i'll let you decide.

RATM

McTigs wrote: »

To be honest, yes i do think you're mad.

I am personally fed up to the back teeth with renting. I've been renting for 15 years now and i've had to the back teeth, i want my own gaff. Myself and my girlfriend had our first child six weeks ago, i have a substantial deposit and mortgage approval but there is no way i'm buying yet.

No one knows where any of this is gonna end up for all the reasons given by noclue1 above. There are way too many variables pointing south. As for the whole "rent is dead money" and "why be paying someone elses mortgage etc etc", well thats just bull**** in a deflating market.

put simply, i reckon 30% further drop on 240k over the next 2 years. Thats 72k. That's 144k less to payback over the life of a mortgage.
Rent the same gaff for 2 years would be about 18k.
That makes me 126k better off for continuing to rent. I don't like it but the sums are the sums.

This is bang on. And if you tease it out further it makes even more sense. Those who stall buying now and holding off will save 126k. Think to yourself how many years extra retirement you'll have on 126k. I'd put it at 6-8 years if you weren't extravagant. So the person who buys now will be working an extra 6-8yrs more than the person who waits for the bottom of the market. But there's a double whammy here too. The person that waits till the bottom will have more capital appreciation in their house over the course of 30 years than the person who bought now. So they'll be able to sell and retire even earlier than what I quoted above. This is assuming that property rises in price over the course of the next 30 years. If it doesn't the person who bought now will be in even bigger trouble whereas the person who waited for the bottom can't lose simply because they bought when property was at its cheapest.

Its not rocket science folks, buying is dead money. Renting is for those who want to be relaxing on a Carribean beach at 65.

RATM

eagle10 wrote: »

Ah sure thers no point trying to tell someone like you anything...

your right your right your right your right

Got to go would love to hear from you again instead of illustrative figures I would love some factual figures that represent Galway city..............

But if you are so knowledgeable about Galway house prices why don't you present the facts yourself rather than asking other posters to do the donkey work that you claim you've done yourself?

I'm not claiming to be an expert on Galway property but I do know that a friend had her place in Salthill valued recently and it was estimated at a 35% reduction from what she paid for it.

But the reality is you don't have a clue about Galway selling prices and you're fooling yourself into thinking you do.

John_Cultane

RATM wrote: »

This is bang on. And if you tease it out further it makes even more sense. Those who stall buying now and holding off will save 126k. Think to yourself how many years extra retirement you'll have on 126k. I'd put it at 6-8 years if you weren't extravagant. So the person who buys now will be working an extra 6-8yrs more than the person who waits for the bottom of the market. But there's a double whammy here too. The person that waits till the bottom will have more capital appreciation in their house over the course of 30 years than the person who bought now. So they'll be able to sell and retire even earlier than what I quoted above. This is assuming that property rises in price over the course of the next 30 years. If it doesn't the person who bought now will be in even bigger trouble whereas the person who waited for the bottom can't lose simply because they bought when property was at its cheapest.

Its not rocket science folks, buying is dead money. Renting is for those who want to be relaxing on a Carribean beach at 65.

Aren't some people who bought and got tracker rate mortgages further along to owning their house and paying less? Regardless of the actual purchase price the money they pay is quite a bit smaller and cheaper than rent. I was recently surprised to find out a friend of mine has much higher monthly repayment than me though bought a cheaper house because they were variable rate. So are you truly saving 126k if you pay more for the money you borrow? Many people misunderstood re-mortgaging when buying cars and have ended up paying much more than if they got a car loan. It ain't rocket science but it is not as straight forward as you pay less for a house so you saved money. Not many people have the discipline to save all this "saved" money either.
Rent is good as it means you only pay for what you need at the time where people buying often buy for what they want in the future.

Blackjack

John_Cultane wrote: »

Aren't some people who bought and got tracker rate mortgages further along to owning their house and paying less? Regardless of the actual purchase price the money they pay is quite a bit smaller and cheaper than rent. I was recently surprised to find out a friend of mine has much higher monthly repayment than me though bought a cheaper house because they were variable rate. So are you truly saving 126k if you pay more for the money you borrow? Many people misunderstood re-mortgaging when buying cars and have ended up paying much more than if they got a car loan. It ain't rocket science but it is not as straight forward as you pay less for a house so you saved money. Not many people have the discipline to save all this "saved" money either.
Rent is good as it means you only pay for what you need at the time where people buying often buy for what they want in the future.

Depends.

Someone on a tracker at current rates of 1.5% on a 385K Mortgage, is paying the same as someone who has a Mortgage of 275 at 4% (BOI Fixed for 5 years).

It really does depend on how much was paid, and the rate on on thee Mortgage is.

Mind you, anyone who paid 385 at the peak won't be getting 275 for their House now....

RATM

John_Cultane wrote: »

Aren't some people who bought and got tracker rate mortgages further along to owning their house and paying less? Regardless of the actual purchase price the money they pay is quite a bit smaller and cheaper than rent. I was recently surprised to find out a friend of mine has much higher monthly repayment than me though bought a cheaper house because they were variable rate. So are you truly saving 126k if you pay more for the money you borrow? Many people misunderstood re-mortgaging when buying cars and have ended up paying much more than if they got a car loan. It ain't rocket science but it is not as straight forward as you pay less for a house so you saved money. Not many people have the discipline to save all this "saved" money either.
Rent is good as it means you only pay for what you need at the time where people buying often buy for what they want in the future.

You're misquoting me. I was referring to which buyer would be better off in the long term- the one who buys today or the one who holds off for the bottom. Clearly it is the one who holds off as long as capital depreciation continues apace.
Your point may have some validity, dependent on many variables at the time of purchase. However in terms of what to do now rather than what happened back then the point doesn't stand simply because tracker mortgages are no longer available so that option isn't on the table. So if you buy now you're going to be on a high interest rate. If you buy in a few years you may well be on a high interest rate but the you'll have gotten the house for less than the person who bought in 2010. The intervening years you wait also give opportunity to save for a bigger deposit which will this reduce the size on the mortgage and the amount of years it runs for.

Just as those who bought late are facing a triple whammy ie crashing house prices and negative equity, rising interest rates and declining wages so too will the canny purchaser will enjoy a double whammy on the way back up. They'll have got their houses for cheaper by holding off. Therefore they save on mortgage payments and years. They'll have bought at a cheaper price, therefore if there is any capital appreciation to be seen over the long term they'll be in the best position to gain benefit from it. Buy low, sell high, simples.

magentas

Wow people are so, ahem, passionate about this topic!
I didn’t start this thread. I simply saw something that was relevant to me and decided to share my story. I fully explained my situation and thought I could show that it’s down to each individuals circumstances but people just love to generalise. Black or white. Or in this case, just black!
Boinkmaster, congratulations on having so much money especially in this economic climate. That you can spend €1000 p.m on rent and still save €2000 p.m:eek: really is fantastic. You’re in a much better financial situation than most Irish people. Your job title most probably consists of a managerial role given your excellent wages. That would explain the dismissive and patronising tone towards me in your posts ie. You’re mad. And ignorant. You’re wrong.


Onthe3rdDay, It all depends where you are on your life journey. If you buy a house and that's going to be your long term home then you're not mad as long as you can afford it!!!
If you're just buying to get on the property ladder as some still want to then you're a lunatic.
The former applies to myself. The latter is such a yuppie phrase ”to get on property ladder” I haven’t heard anyone say that in years! :DIn any case, I don’t think anyone would/could buy now for that reason alone (although I’m sure boinkmaster will “inform” us otherwise!)
But yes, the timing was right, it is going to be our long-term home and we can afford it.
Obviously this is not the case for boinkmaster (the timing part I mean, not the afford part) That’s fair enough, that’s the whole point I was trying to make. Not everyone is at the same stage in life. What’s right for me obviously isn’t right for everyone else. I just wanted to show that everyones different. I just wish people would respect that.


My partner and I bought a home we could afford in a place we loved to share for life and hopefully raise a family in the future. Simple as that. I’m done with this thread now so Good luck to anyone wishing to buy, be it now or in the future:)

ricman

if you are on a good wage,and are paying 1000 euro rent per month,its ok to buy a house now,if you want to live in area x ,and the price is reasonable.IF you are happy to live there for 15 years.Theres good 3bed houses in dublin going for 180k or less,in private estates.

Theboinkmaster

magentas wrote: »

Wow people are so, ahem, passionate about this topic!
I didn’t start this thread. I simply saw something that was relevant to me and decided to share my story. I fully explained my situation and thought I could show that it’s down to each individuals circumstances but people just love to generalise. Black or white. Or in this case, just black!
Boinkmaster, congratulations on having so much money especially in this economic climate. That you can spend €1000 p.m on rent and still save €2000 p.m:eek: really is fantastic. You’re in a much better financial situation than most Irish people. Your job title most probably consists of a managerial role given your excellent wages. That would explain the dismissive and patronising tone towards me in your posts ie. You’re mad. And ignorant. You’re wrong.


Onthe3rdDay, It all depends where you are on your life journey. If you buy a house and that's going to be your long term home then you're not mad as long as you can afford it!!!
If you're just buying to get on the property ladder as some still want to then you're a lunatic.
The former applies to myself. The latter is such a yuppie phrase ”to get on property ladder” I haven’t heard anyone say that in years! :DIn any case, I don’t think anyone would/could buy now for that reason alone (although I’m sure boinkmaster will “inform” us otherwise!)
But yes, the timing was right, it is going to be our long-term home and we can afford it.
Obviously this is not the case for boinkmaster (the timing part I mean, not the afford part) That’s fair enough, that’s the whole point I was trying to make. Not everyone is at the same stage in life. What’s right for me obviously isn’t right for everyone else. I just wanted to show that everyones different. I just wish people would respect that.


My partner and I bought a home we could afford in a place we loved to share for life and hopefully raise a family in the future. Simple as that. I’m done with this thread now so Good luck to anyone wishing to buy, be it now or in the future:)

You came onto a public forum and asked whether you were mad - I responded.

Your comments about my finances suggest you have quite a chip on your shoulder. Perhaps yours would be in better shape if you made more informed financial decisions.

magentas

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

You came onto a public forum and asked whether you were mad - I responded.

Your comments about my finances suggest you have quite a chip on your shoulder. Perhaps yours would be in better shape if you made more informed financial decisions.

and you sound like a perfectly balanced man...a chip on both shoulders!

Try and not be so bitter:D