Tropical Storm HERMINE

Su Campu

Hermine has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060854
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.
ASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL
30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND
NOAA BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTH OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LANDFALL. AS
A RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE
OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 21.6N 95.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

thetonynator

unlikely to have much strenght when it hits land . . .

Su Campu

It might do, the forecast has been upgraded in the latest discussion, and it could be a near enough a hurricane on landfall.




000
WTNT45 KNHC 061431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 36.0N 99.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

Su Campu

Hermine is about to make landfall on the Mexico-Texas border as a possible hurricane. Here are two data buoys located right in the probable landfall area.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42044




http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ptit2

Su Campu

Su Campu

Hermine made landfall at around 0130UTC as a tropical storm. Still some very strong winds, eg. Harlingen Airport, just north of Brownsville:

[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KHRL 070625Z AUTO 18041G58KT 5SM RA BR OVC006 26/25 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 13063/0600 WSHFT 0555 TSB04E19 PRESRR P0002[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KHRL 070615Z AUTO 17046G58KT 10SM VCTS RA OVC006 26/25 A2937 RMK AO2 PK WND 13063/0600 WSHFT 0555 TSB04 PRESRR P0002[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KHRL 070604Z AUTO 16045G63KT 3SM VCTS RA BR FEW001 BKN006 OVC014 25/25 A2930 RMK AO2 PK WND 13063/0600 TWR VIS 5 TSB04 P0002[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KHRL 070558Z AUTO 12048G63KT 1SM RA BR FEW001 BKN008 OVC015 25/25 A2929 RMK AO2 PK WND 12063/0558 TWR VIS 5 PRESFR P0002[/FONT]

There are some flood warnings still in effect.

More observations in map form here

Su Campu

000
WTNT45 KNHC 070850
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

THE CENTER OF HERMINE MOVED THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES. THE
HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED IN THE INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF THE
CENTER WERE 48 KT WITH A GUST TO 63 KT...OCCURRING AT VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN HARLINGEN TEXAS AROUND 0600 UTC. SINCE
THAT TIME...THE BAND OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. THE GUST FACTOR IS BEING HELD A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM
DECAY OVER LAND AND SHOWS HERMINE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
ABSORBED BY A WARM FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HOURS.

HERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING JUST A LITTLE EAST OF...AND FASTER THAN...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 340/15. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS
NOT CHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS. HERMINE WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA IN
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION OF
THE STORM BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THEREAFTER.

AS HERMINE WEAKENS TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 27.0N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.7N 99.0W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/0600Z 30.9N 100.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/1800Z 33.3N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/0600Z 36.1N 99.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Su Campu

Some great footage of the tornadoes in the Dallas area that were spawned by the remains of Hermine

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=9f1_1284202401