Winter FI Charts

thetonynator

We can dream:

BLIZZARD7

Were looking at the Atlantic in control up to next weekend anyway, after that is alot more uncertain, strongish support for a mid atlantic ridge/Greenland high in FI. The main problem we have is the heights over southern Europe, but I reckon these will be blasted out of the way as the high in the Atlantic forces the jet south, barreling into southern Europe.

The polar vortex won't setup anywhere for very long I don't think, or at least not in an unfavourable position. I'd expect it to sit over scandi in about 10 days time, feeding down cold northerly's or north-easterlys over us. With the GH/mid Atlantic ridge keeping the jet at bay, just like in December although probably not as cold. After this I reckon the polar vortex will shift and a high pressure ridge will build over scandi resulting in easterly's into February.

Now this would be the best scenario possible really but it does have some support, ensemble mean starting to drop off in FI.

GFS 00z Ensembles for Aberdeen trending colder -



GFS 00z Ensembles for Dublin -



This shows the mean dropping to -5C at the 850 hpa level after the 19th. Don't expect it do drop to -10c at this range, even if thats what happens. The mean always drops as we get closer to the cold spell when this pattern sets up.

Anyway take it as a good sign at the moment, nothing more and nothing less.
I don't agree with elmer, it's very unlikely that we will get stuck in a zonal flow for weeks.

00z GFS SLP Ensembles for oslo + reyjavic not as good as they were, not awful either.






00z GFS SLP ensembles for Madrid show a pressure drop towards the end, indicating we might get rid of that stubborn ridge -




Anyway that's just my opinion and one to watch, maybe Elmer will be right and we will be stuck in zonality for months.




Dan :cool:

Pangea

Everyones gone very quiet, has the express broke down already.

DOCARCH

Pangea wrote: »

Everyones gone very quiet, has the express broke down already.

Nothing even in FI to get excited about this morning! :rolleyes:

patneve2

GFS 06 poor, however ensembles (or spaghetti/noodle forecast as I like to call them ) definitely hinting at colder weather starting in the last 10 days of the month...will get colder but nothing compared to the last two major cold spells...I'm happy just as long as we don't get stuck in the Atlantic train for the rest of the Winter...;)

nacho libre

well it looks like it will get colder this time next week, but it doesn't look good for sustained cold in my opinion. A few crumbs of comfort are the uk met office update hasn't changed so far, and M.T.'s forecast so far this winter has been spot on, so perhaps the models will be showing something more favourable in two or three days time. if mike65 is the only one posting in this thread during the week then it's times to panic:p

nacho libre

patneve2 wrote: »

.I'm happy just as long as we don't get stuck in the Atlantic train for the rest of the Winter...;)

Don't look at the CFS prediction for February then!. It would be funny if it was correct, considering February is usually the month the Atlantic is at its quietest

patneve2

nacho libre wrote: »

Don't look at the CFS prediction for February then!. It would be funny if it was correct, considering February is usually the month the Atlantic is at its quietest

Already seen them:( Won't give too much weight to them just yet as their forecasts were all over the place November/December...I hope (and think) that blocking will still be a major characteristic, (maybe not positioned as well as previous) for the remainder of the Winter. No scientific explanation for this so zero validity:)

BEASTERLY

This set up gave me my username!

Just to sum up the GFS lately:

MT just gave an update in other thread
:pac:

Iancar29

Hey People, the end of the FI charts i know , but what would this low system mean if it tracked over us from the atlantic ?

alfa beta

wet and windy would be my guess - what makes you think it might be wintery (if that's what you're thinking?)

Iancar29

alfa beta wrote: »

wet and windy would be my guess - what makes you think it might be wintery (if that's what you're thinking?)

Ah no , i know it wont be wintery!, its coming from the atlantic of course!!.. ha,
#
But ye , like , seeing as it has it at a pressure of 960mbs there, wouldnt crossing the atlantic make it deeping further?... Making it a serious storm?.

I know its way out to come true, but just for educational purposes...

alfa beta

lol - I've got wintery on the brain - and now can't even spot when someone asks a question about weather that may not involve the cold!!!

I spose it could be a nasty bit of a blow alright, but it's a bit flabby looking isn't it to develop into a serious storm don't you think?

Flan_Da_Man125

i want snow but i woudnt mind and nice windy storm to pass through. we havent seen a really good one in a while. last weekends one was only ok haha

Flan_Da_Man125

next wednesday here shows high moving west allowing wet weather back.

Iancar29

Wish we got a low like thats off to the NW , 950mb..... A NICE oul windstorm that would be ha...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

Wish we got a low like thats off to the NW , 950mb..... A NICE oul windstorm that would be ha... BUT I WISH IT WAS SNNNOOOOOOOWWW

FYP :pac:

Iancar29

t|nt|n wrote: »

FYP :pac:

haha... ah ye but if snow wasnt an option id kindly take a windstorm over damp and dreary weather anyday

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

haha... ah ye but if snow wasnt an option id kindly take a windstorm over damp and dreary weather anyday

True, I would take anything at this stage !

nacho libre

Iancar29 wrote: »

haha... ah ye but if snow wasnt an option id kindly take a windstorm over damp and dreary weather anyday

So would I.

J6P

Straw clutching of the highest order to keep me sane during this period of nothingness weather wise.

Iancar29

J6P wrote: »

Straw clutching of the highest order to keep me sane during this period of nothingness weather wise.

haha... dont worry, alot of us do the same! >>> ME for example ha!

Elmer Blooker

J6P wrote: »

Straw clutching of the highest order to keep me sane during this period of nothingness weather wise.

I dunno about that! We can count ourselves lucky that we dont have to suffer the dreaded anticyclonic gloom (not yet anyway)
About a week ago I was convinced that the Atlantic was about to go on the rampage for the rest of the winter, at least we still have blocking.

thetonynator

Whatever can be said about the weather now, it's not damp, and it's far better than incessant zonal activity from the atlantic! Of course once it gets cloudy i'll be sick of it!

Iancar29

My straw pickage of 2day ...

Rebelbrowser

Iancar29 wrote: »

My straw pickage of 2day ...

From reading MT etc I think that may well come to pass. Its the easterly off a Siberian high (I think?) in Feb we've speculated about. That chart looks epic to my untrained eye.

pistolpetes11

Iancar29 wrote: »

My straw pickage of 2day ...

Save the image to ur desktop, then load it up to boards,

This is now a live image and will change with every model run ,

Its gone from having a deep cold pool, -8s uppers to -2s now on the next run !

Ive been caught on this before posting up a page to which black briar said was basically terrible , I only noticed the image I had posted with low uppers had turned to mild muck on the next run when checking in later on .

Iancar29

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Save the image to ur desktop, then load it up to boards,

This is now a live image and will change with every model run ,

Its gone from having a deep cold pool, -8s uppers to -2s now on the next run !

Ive been caught on this before posting up a page to which black briar said was basically terrible , I only noticed the image I had posted with low uppers had turned to mild muck on the next run when checking in later on .

Ah crap... i forgot about that ha.... Typical... why cant it go the opposite way, like id be like " ah this chart aint soo bad "... it have -4 uppers . Then on the next run changing to -12! haha ...:rolleyes:

Not

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ah crap... i forgot about that ha.... Typical... why cant it go the opposite way, like id be like " ah this chart aint soo bad "... it have -4 uppers . Then on the next run changing to -12! haha ...:rolleyes:

May well do yet. Currently showing a tongue of -16s creeping westwards


:eek:Jeez, that's a big straw...!!

Edit : Showing -8s over Ireland now. Going the right way...

MiNdGaM3

Wouldn't mind this...



Or even this:D




Snow anyone?

thetonynator

^^^^

The most unbelievably good chart ever id say . . .look how far west the snow risk goes!!!

Musicman2000

thetonynator wrote: »

^^^^

The most unbelievably good chart ever id say . . .look how far west the snow risk goes!!!

And you would have a better chance of winning the lotto 3 times over before that chart comes off:)

thetonynator

Musicman2000 wrote: »

And you would have a better chance of winning the lotto 3 times over before that chart comes off:)

It isn't called Fantasy Island for nothing!!!

BEASTERLY

ECM only 96 hrs away:

not bad at 120 hrs:


This doesnt even belong in the FI thread, woohooo:D

I'll have egg on my by morning i say:rolleyes:

thetonynator

18z GFS showing High pressure dominating almost all the time from now til the 6th of Feb near the end of the run . . .:eek:

Speak Now

thetonynator wrote: »

18z GFS showing High pressure dominating almost all the time from now til the 6th of Feb near the end of the run . . .:eek:

Lovely Hurling

Iancar29

Mo straw pickage of 2day..

popflop

Looks promising hope it turns out the way its showed on the charts

thetonynator

popflop wrote: »

Looks promising hope it turns out the way its showed on the charts

very very very very unlikely. .

Min

thetonynator wrote: »

very very very very unlikely. .

We can hope that it is "very very very very unlikely."

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

I really miss snow on the Castlecomer ."

:eek:

Not

Iancar29 wrote: »

Mo straw pickage of 2day..

LOL those charts for around 3/4 Feb are like someone constantly flicking a switch On Off On Off On.. It'll probably show something completely different tomorrow :rolleyes:

Harps

Clearly not going to happen but..

nacho libre

Harps wrote: »

Clearly not going to happen but..

It looks like the vortex is almost on top of Scotland in that chart. That would bring serious blizzards to parts of Scotland. Ah well as you say too bad it won't work out like that:(

Musicman2000

nacho libre wrote: »

It looks like the vortex is almost on top of Scotland in that chart. That would bring serious blizzards to parts of Scotland. Ah well as you say too bad it won't work out like that:(

It would be some end to Winter if that did happen:)

WolfeIRE

Interestingly, the ECMWF is also picking up on the exact same system

goosey93

did a fella a month or so back post a video forecast about a storm like dat cumin in de 1st week of feb?...i cant find the actual thread..bt it had a similar low pressure system..however de wind speeds seemed a bit exagerated

nacho libre

goosey93 wrote: »

did a fella a month or so back post a video forecast about a storm like dat cumin in de 1st week of feb?...i cant find the actual thread..bt it had a similar low pressure system..however de wind speeds seemed a bit exagerated

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056135253

BLIZZARD7

Ok serious straw clutching is in order tonight!

ALL models show the Atlantic breaking through soon, how soon? ECM/UKMO say very soon, unusually the GFS delays this, slightly.

Now at the moment it's forecast to be cool/cold zonality with the polar vortex close-by. This may or may not stand, more likely it downgrades to normal mild wet rubbish zonality. We can hope not though. I am not sure how close FI is ATM but i think it's quite close. All major models are showing a seriously deep low at some point in there runs, GFS/UKMO/ECM/BOM and GEM all show this. At different time scales though.

Now forget all that boring mush^^ what's caught my eye tonight is the 18z GFS. In FI this shows the potential for a scandi high to act as a Brick wall as the polar vortex is stopped in it's tracks to the west of Iceland. Now this is only one run in lala land but shows that the Atlantic might be sent packing soon after it arrives.







Dan:cool: