The cost of Met Eireann Misinformation

Sponge Bob

I was listening to the Met weather forecast on the morning of Sat 4th september when they droned on about heavy rain and flooding etc. This was correct, east of the Shannon. The day was a scorcher in Galway.

However the Met Eireann weather forecast never explained that, focusing on the dreary remains of Hurricane Danielle as it rained over leinster

There is a direct cost to this continual failure to forecast the weather correctly on the west coast. Sadly the Met Dublin service is too arrogant to care about it.

http://www.kerryman.ie/premium/news/forecast-dampens-ballyb-summer-2329378.html

Seemingly on 8 separate days when rain was forecast in Ballybunion in July and August it did not rain at all and some days were not even overcast but sunny all day.

MET Éireann's weather forcasts cost Ballybunion business over the summer season as holidaymakers stayed away to dodge rain that was predicted but never fell, local tourism interests claimed this week. And they are now calling on the state agency to sharpen up their act, claiming that the town paid a heavy price for weather forecasts that wrongly predicted rain during the summer.

Speak Now

Unfortunately forecasting is not and never will be an exact science.
Any statement about a future event will never be 100% accurate.

As regards Dublin you are correct, they are very Biased towards the more heavily populated regions.

kmick

Let me tell you that the forecast in Dublin is equally unreliable even with their emphasis on it.

I have found the best form of weather forecasting is looking out the window when you get up.

Su Campu

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I was listening to the Met weather forecast on the morning of Sat 4th september when they droned on about heavy rain and flooding etc. This was correct, east of the Shannon. The day was a scorcher in Galway.

However the Met Eireann weather forecast never explained that, focusing on the dreary remains of Hurricane Danielle as it rained over leinster

There is a direct cost to this continual failure to forecast the weather correctly on the west coast. Sadly the Met Dublin service is too arrogant to care about it.

http://www.kerryman.ie/premium/news/forecast-dampens-ballyb-summer-2329378.html

Seemingly on 8 separate days when rain was forecast in Ballybunion in July and August it did not rain at all and some days were not even overcast but sunny all day.

So can you give examples of where they "continually" misforecast for the west coast? By what you're saying you must have evidence to prove that they get it wrong the majority of the time, so share it with us.

Here are the actual rainfall amounts and sunshine hours for the "west" on 4th of September, so there was rain at every station.

Knock 3.5mm/6.3hrs
Claremorris 2.1mm
Mace Head 1.6mm
Belmullet 0.7mm/5.2hrs
Shannon 1.4mm/8.3hrs
Gurteen 21.4mm
Valentia 10.0mm/8.8hrs

Min

I think Met Eireann underestimated the amount of rain that fell on the Monday night/Tuesday which they had warnings out for. It is not an exact science but they mostly do an excellent job, we all remember the times they get it wrong more so than the times they get it right.

Su Campu

Yes, it's an inexact science, particularly for Ireland, where there are relatively few observations upstream to consider when making a forecast. They do get it wrong sometimes, but the majority of the time I feel they do as good a job as any Met Service.

There will always be those who will have a poke at any public body, no matter what, plus there will be those business groups who will try their arm and claim for lost revenue for this and that - if it's not rain then it's lack of it! Plus of course there are newspapers who will print anything to sell a few more copies.

Deep Easterly

MET Éireann's weather forcasts cost Ballybunion business over the summer season as holidaymakers stayed away to dodge rain that was predicted but never fell, local tourism interests claimed this week. And they are now calling on the state agency to sharpen up their act, claiming that the town paid a heavy price for weather forecasts that wrongly predicted rain during the summer.

I think one of the reasons hollidaymakers stayed away was nothing to do with a met eireann forecast. The weather was crap, not just on the date in question, but for the entire summer season. I certainly do not recall any 'beach friendly weather' to lure the toursits in this year anyway!!

Another reason could well be that people are just sick to death of being grossly overcharged and exploited everytime they take a west coast holiday.

Maybe these local tourism interests should sue met eireann, maybe that way they can keep their profit margins up.

Sponge Bob

Su Campu wrote: »

There will always be those who will have a poke at any public body, no matter what, plus there will be those business groups who will try their arm and claim for lost revenue for this and that - if it's not rain then it's lack of it! Plus of course there are newspapers who will print anything to sell a few more copies.

I am not "poking" at them, I am bashing their thick skulls with a big stick saying I AM SICK OF YOU LOT !!!!!!

Whats the difference between Iceland and Ireland ??? A letter, a year and a weather forecasting service

All I want them to do is to put a bloody radar on Mt Gabriel near Schull and Dooncarton in Mayo and then I can plan a day..or two..on occasion. I have access to adequate forecasts elsewhere.

The imprecision of their warnings and the lack of real time comparative data is what kills me.

I even have to get the five day rainfall forecast from ICELAND because Met Dublin only provide a 3 hour forecast or a 2 day slice

EG Iceland ( Bless) 5 day forecast ( every 6 hours shown )

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Ireland

3 Hour

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp

Midday today and tomorrow

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlantic-charts.asp

Su Campu

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I am not "poking" at them, I am bashing their thick skulls with a big stick saying I AM SICK OF YOU LOT !!!!!!

Whats the difference between Iceland and Ireland ??? A letter, a year and a weather forecasting service

All I want them to do is to put a bloody radar on Mt Gabriel near Schull and Dooncarton in Mayo and then I can plan a day..or two..on occasion. I have access to adequate forecasts elsewhere.

The imprecision of their warnings and the lack of real time comparative data is what kills me.

I even have to get the five day rainfall forecast from ICELAND because Met Dublin only provide a 3 hour forecast or a 2 day slice

EG Iceland ( Bless) 5 day forecast ( every 6 hours shown )

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Ireland

3 Hour

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp

Midday today and tomorrow

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlantic-charts.asp

Putting 10 radars along the west coast would do nothing to help you predict where showers will form 1-2 days in advance. I do admit that their site could have more features, and agree with you that the Icelandic site is second to none, as are the Norwegian and Danish sites. But that's irrelevant because your original post was speaking about their radio forecast that morning.

Danno

Showers are notoriously difficult to forecast. The weather of July was very showery and so has September been so far. I have seen showers forecast for my area, only to remain completly dry all day, whilst other times no showers were forecast and a mad downpour occurred.

Recently, a forecast of 30mm to 50mm was forecast for this area and it ended up over 120mm. A freak of nature no doubt, but we were lucky that it has been such a dry August prior to that, otherwise the flooding would have been mayhem. But on the other hand, they did forecast heavy rains, and they duly arrived!!!

Forecasts by ANYONE will never be 100%, NEVER. Nature will do her own thing. We have the added difficulty of being the first knock on the door for all Atlantic weather. The UKMO have an advantage that they see what is over us before making their own forecasts. The weather today over Cork is more than likely to be the weather tomorrow over Birmingham... etc...

Iancar29

All I hav to say is I'd like to see the village people give a better forecast!, it was a mistake yes , but no1 can or should blame them on considering the complexity of forecasting , the amount of staff they only hav and the lack of new systems to inprove forecasts the bit more.

They hav certainly done more good than bad decisions.

pauldry

What people are dying to see is a general change in the appearance of the TV forecasts on RTE. The technology is dated a lot of the time. The rainfall loop is a good addition that they seem to use more often now but they are not making adequate use of the satellite like in US they use this loop a lot more. Also the Met people do be predicting rain or sun and when I look at the satellite on www.sat24.com its obvious that the opposite is going to happen. A satellite repeat loop a la USA on the forecast would be a useful addition. I have no complaints about the forecasters they use though.

Su Campu

pauldry wrote: »

What people are dying to see is a general change in the appearance of the TV forecasts on RTE. The technology is dated a lot of the time. The rainfall loop is a good addition that they seem to use more often now but they are not making adequate use of the satellite like in US they use this loop a lot more. Also the Met people do be predicting rain or sun and when I look at the satellite on www.sat24.com its obvious that the opposite is going to happen. A satellite repeat loop a la USA on the forecast would be a useful addition. I have no complaints about the forecasters they use though.

One big gripe I have is when they use the really low resolution rainfall radar...drives me mad! Sometimes they use the higher res, which is ok, but I don't see why they can't use it all the time. The seem to use the low res after they've shown a wide are mosaic including GB and then they just zoom in on that instead of making a new chart with the hi res.

91011

Its ridiculous to "blame" met eireann for incorrect forecasts. Even basic knowledge of weather tells you that the west cost of Ireland has the most changeable weather in the world. And even in parts of the west coast there can be micro climates.

Ever been in Rosses point playing golf in teeming rain and someone in sligo town (5miles away) doesn't know what you are talking about as they've been in sunshine all day!

Even this week, the prediction was for a faily decent settled spell - both MT & others predicted it, yet at the last minute the fronts from the north came down and washed it away.

We're not a sunshine nation, so those who depend on sunshine & good weather for business are in the wrong country.

pauldry

91011 wrote: »

Its ridiculous to "blame" met eireann for incorrect forecasts. Even basic knowledge of weather tells you that the west cost of Ireland has the most changeable weather in the world. And even in parts of the west coast there can be micro climates.

Ever been in Rosses point playing golf in teeming rain and someone in sligo town (5miles away) doesn't know what you are talking about as they've been in sunshine all day!

Even this week, the prediction was for a faily decent settled spell - both MT & others predicted it, yet at the last minute the fronts from the north came down and washed it away.

We're not a sunshine nation, so those who depend on sunshine & good weather for business are in the wrong country.

Good points made there. I was driving from Sligo yesterday evening and there was near tornado conditions at Carraroe and torrents of rain and then in less than 2 miles it was beautifully dry and sunny. Sligo and Collooney and Rosses Point have 3 different climates. FACT. Ive been studying them closely for the past 3 years. Collooney is the sunniest, Rosses point doesnt get the heavy showers Sligo gets but it gets strata type rain events that might result in a more cloudy type day in Sligo and even some sun in Collooney. eeeeeeek! :eek:

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

One big gripe I have is when they use the really low resolution rainfall radar...drives me mad! Sometimes they use the higher res, which is ok, but I don't see why they can't use it all the time. The seem to use the low res after they've shown a wide are mosaic including GB and then they just zoom in on that instead of making a new chart with the hi res.

I have noticed that to. I wonder is it to do with an assumption that the general public will only be able to two rainfall intensity colours during what is usually a 3 to 5 sec radar shot in an average tv forecast? Just an idea and could be totally wrong on that.

weisses

I know predicting weather 12 hours ahead is nearly impossible on this Island

Can you imagine how useless a forecast for a week is .. .still people try

I agree with Sponge Bob ME is useless for almost everyone west of the shannon, people seems to forget that many people actually listen to the weather service and plan accordingly

Make a proper forecast or don't bother at all

Owen

I have 3 different apps on my iPhone for weather, and met.ie. If it's raining, I can't work, simple as that. It never ceases to amaze me the difference between all 4 sources of information. WeatherPro has hourly forecasts, and appears to be the most accurate, with met.ie giving me probably 60% accuracy.

compsys

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Unfortunately forecasting is not and never will be an exact science.
Any statement about a future event will never be 100% accurate.

As regards Dublin you are correct, they are very Biased towards the more heavily populated regions.

Well duh, of course they're going to concentrate more on the greater Dublin region; it's home to almost a third of the entire country's population.

Is anyone honestly suggesting that Met Eireannn or any other website spend as much time, money and detail trying to figure out and accurately forecast the correct weather for a sparsely populated small town in the back arse of nowhere as they are for the country's capital city?

Speak Now

compsys wrote: »

Well duh, of course they're going to concentrate more on the greater Dublin region; it's home to almost a third of the entire country's population.

Is anyone honestly suggesting that Met Eireannn or any other website spend as much time, money and detail trying to figure out and accurately forecast the correct weather for a sparsely populated small town in the back arse of nowhere as they are for the country's capital city?

:rolleyes: isn't that what i said

weisses

compsys wrote: »

Well duh, of course they're going to concentrate more on the greater Dublin region; it's home to almost a third of the entire country's population.

Is anyone honestly suggesting that Met Eireannn or any other website spend as much time, money and detail trying to figure out and accurately forecast the correct weather for a sparsely populated small town in the back arse of nowhere as they are for the country's capital city?

yeah i get you .... You don't want to get soaking wet waiting in the dole Que

pauldry

Yeah but when the Dubs spend all their Summer holidays West of the Shannon in the back arse of nowhere there are still no forecasts out there so go figure

Sponge Bob

pauldry wrote: »

Yeah but when the Dubs spend all their Summer holidays West of the Shannon in the back arse of nowhere there are still no forecasts out there so go figure

With the motorway network it takes 2 hours to get from Dublin to the west coast and 2.5 hours to Ballybunion

What we need nowadays is real time information from Radars on HIGH SITES ( not in a ****ing hole in Shannon Met****s ) on the west coast and regional forecasts for the western half of the counrty that are based on this data as well as some model that might look nice in Glasnevin before they toddle down to RTE to get the makeup on the night before.

Before the internet came about the best way of getting a 'forecast' was not to ring some prerecoreded bollix on a Met**** 1550 number ...simply to hear the poxy Dublin weather forecast again. You rang the control tower in an airport like Sligo or Kerry and they gave you a short accurate summary.

There is no excuse any more, real time data and dynamic regionally relevant weather forecasts are not rocket science ...even if nobody gets a gig on RTE presenting them.

Jpmarn

This summer I went to Kilkee from Limerick on a dodgy forecast. And enjoyed myself with plenty of sunshine. Perhaps ME should place recording at some of the popular beach resorts.

Deep Easterly

compsys wrote: »

.

Is anyone honestly suggesting that Met Eireannn or any other website spend as much time, money and detail trying to figure out and accurately forecast the correct weather for a sparsely populated small town in the back arse of nowhere as they are for the country's capital city?

Well duh, since they do go under the name 'met eireann', I would say yes, you would expect them too.

If ya have a problem with that, which obviously you do. Tough.

silverharp

I find it annoying that they do not lay out as best as they can when rain will arrive. if you have an early morning activity that is weather dependant. The 9pm RTE weather forecast is to general and even if I log on to met.ie , they only give midday values. Sky news seems to give a better hour by hour projection, do they get thier information from the same source?

Discodog

I depend on accurate forecasts & it can affect my income therefore I do not bother with ME. What is the point in turning on a radio to hear a vague 30 second forecast ?. By lunchtime, the first chance of getting a TV forecast half the day is gone. WTF can't ME get up in the morning !.

The TV forecasts remind me of the UK about 30 years ago. Symbols on maps !. No progressive/predictive rainfall, no regional forecasts etc. We do have a very variable climate so we need more detailed forecasts. For example Sky give a separate forecasts for Scotland, Wales, Ireland. The BBC give regional forecasts why can't RTE ?. The population argument ignores Galway & Limerick. It also ignores the fact that in rural & coastal areas many people work outdoors.

So to me ME are an irrelevance. I rely on the BBC, & yr.no. I only use ME for the online rainfall radar. For most people who work outdoors all we want to know is when will it start raining in our area, how long will it rain for & when will it stop. ME TV & radio forecasts never tell me this.

I pay for ME & yet the BBC & Sky give me much more detailed information. ME don't do detail so it is impossible to judge their accuracy.

lucernarian

The experience with those rainfall predictors is that they're completely inaccurate when dealing with the showery weather that Ireland often has to contends with. I think it's better to be vaguely right than specifically wrong.

Discodog

I would strongly disagree. If you only make a forecast when you believe it to be totally accurate you might as well give up. I am happy to accept inaccuracy if potential degree of difference is shown. For example yr.no give max/mins for shower periods.

I monitor the forecasts every day & sometimes several times a day. I would far rather a forecaster give me their best guess rather than being vague. We don't need ME to say that today will be windy, with periods of rain.

The simple answer would be a piece of software - any geeks here ?. It would take the radar image & project the movement of rain forward for a few hours. For example if rain is moving in from the West, the only way of determining when you will get wet is to look at the radar animation & guess when the rain will reach you.

Rather than use a computer projection this idea would use the actual rainfall & have a clickable timeline to show the progress of the rain & show where it will be in say 3 hours time.

This would allow workers, event organisers etc to say with some confidence that rain will arrive at a specific time & plan accordingly. My suspicion is that this would interfere with ME charging for specific forecasts.

Deep Easterly

Discodog wrote: »

Rather than use a computer projection this idea would use the actual rainfall & have a clickable timeline to show the progress of the rain & show where it will be in say 3 hours time.

Something like this?

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=exp

not sure how accurate it is though.


I agree with you that yr.no is a great site, but its forecast rainfall animation sequence is cack. It is always in the throws of updating which means that suddenly it jumps six hours ahead, then six hours back without any update on the actual time which just results in you becoming totally lost as to where you are with it.

It would be better if they waited until the updated data was complete before putting it up in the public domain rather than having to figure out what or which is the oldest or newest update when viewing. This seems to happen not just on yr, but on most weather model sites as well.

Discodog

Yes that's the general idea but it looks like it's computer generated. I am sure that a techie could design a program for the ME radar so that it would be following actual rain. It could also take into account projected changes in rain movement.

I agree about yr.no's updates but I still think that it is bizarre that the Norwegians give us more info than our own ME.