House prices down 9% since April - Indo

Jaden

Taken from RTE.ie

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0917/housing.html



A survey of the property market carried out for the Irish Independent shows that house prices have continued to fall over the past four months.

The survey, carried out among 150 estate agents, showed that prices of new homes fell by 9% since the last survey in April, while second-hand prices were down 8%. This means prices in both categories have fallen by almost 45% from peak levels.

The survey found that sales activity had continued to increase since April, though not as quickly as in the first four months of the year. 55% of estate agents reported an increase in activity since April, with 20% seeing a decrease. The April figures were 71% and 20% respectively.
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The report said that current buying was confined to the first--time buyer market, with stamp duty and negative equity holding back activity among existing owner-occupiers.

Estate agents also reported that many buyers were having problems securing mortgage finance.

76% of estate agents expects an increase in sales activity to increase in 12 months' time, the same figure as in the last survey. But the percentage expecting a fall in activity rose from 1% in April to 10% in this survey.

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Seems even EAs have figured out we are in freefall.

mowhawk

And they are going to fall a lot further in price yet. Just wait until NAMA starts unloading their stock!

wildefalcon

mowhawk wrote: »

And they are going to fall a lot further in price yet. Just wait until NAMA starts unloading their stock!

I agree. Simple economics would suggest that the price has a fair way to go.

Supply and demand.

There is an over supply, and that is increasing as people emigrate.

Demand is falling, as fear drives people to hunker down. And again emigration is reducing demand.


I'd say that a typical 3 bed semi will end up worth between 60k (deep rural) and 150k (sub-urban).

This is supported by the rule of thumb that USED be used by bankers for approving mortgages, 3 to 4 times average industrial wage.

Cookie_Monster

still 9% in only 4 months is pretty big

wildefalcon

I suspect that a LOT of sellers are still welded to the Tiger prices.

Takes a lot for people to get realistic, when their mortgages are higher than the selling price, and who can blame them?

JoeyJJ

I have a daft search that has 15/20 properties in a couple of areas since Feb/March that haven't budged in price. In my search criteria some are reducing these are the ones going sale agree (I know) however these remain. Not sure what they are going to do if they aren't prepared to lower. They are now more expensive with the downward curve of the market.

Meeja Ireland

JoeyJJ wrote: »

I have a daft search that has 15/20 properties in a couple of areas since Feb/March that haven't budged in price. In my search criteria some are reducing these are the ones going sale agree (I know) however these remain. Not sure what they are going to do if they aren't prepared to lower. They are now more expensive with the downward curve of the market.

I have heard that some developers are keeping the prices of their housing stock unrealistically high specifically so that they won't sell. They owe money to the banks, and if they sell the houses they will have to pay it back. But they don't want to sell at what they (ludicrously) perceive to be a "discount", so they plan to sit tight until prices go up again.

I don't know if this is true, but it would explain some of the absurd prices that people are still asking.

JoeyJJ

Meeja Ireland wrote: »

I have heard that some developers are keeping the prices of their housing stock unrealistically high specifically so that they won't sell. They owe money to the banks, and if they sell the houses they will have to pay it back. But they don't want to sell at what they (ludicrously) perceive to be a "discount", so they plan to sit tight until prices go up again.

I don't know if this is true, but it would explain some of the absurd prices that people are still asking.

That is probably the case in the new market however these are all 2nd hand market, houses in SDC and SCD areas.

Dymo

I was talking to an electrician who was working on a show house last week, the builder was selling the last 20 houses in an estate of 176. In the height of the boom they were selling for €695,000 now there up for €320,000 and the builder will take anything even close to that. I'd hate to of been one of the many who queued for days for the €695,000 priced houses.

House near me is gone sale agreed 2 years ago the asking price was €230,000 but they sold for €128,000

planetX

is there any way to find out the actual selling prices as opposed to the ridiculous asking prices. A relative of mine is trying to buy, and just had a decent offer refused - the asking price is insane, but maybe the seller expects to get it? It would be really useful to be able to find out what similar houses in the area have sold for, is there a way?

who what when

planetX wrote: »

is there any way to find out the actual selling prices as opposed to the ridiculous asking prices. A relative of mine is trying to buy, and just had a decent offer refused - the asking price is insane, but maybe the seller expects to get it? It would be really useful to be able to find out what similar houses in the area have sold for, is there a way?

No

quozl

PlanetX, the government has committed to publishing a sales price database, just like developed countries do

Will have to see if it actually appears, as they've been promising it since the green's sold their morals and their support for NAMA in exchange for a new programme for government.

I'd be hopeful it'll appear within a year, and it won't be in some useless form, but I keep being disappointed by our politicians, so to be honest I'm basing this more on a belief of what should be done, rather than a great hope in them doing it.

who what when

I feel so relieved when i see reports saying property prices have fallen by x amount because i like others was in a position to buy around 2007 but held off. Cant claim i had greater foresight than others or anything, i just wasnt comfortable with the idea of a mortgage 7 or 8 times my income.

Really feel for those who are up to their tits in debt. Sorry a little off topic

planetX

quozl wrote: »

PlanetX, the government has committed to publishing a sales price database, just like developed countries do

Will have to see if it actually appears, as they've been promising it since the green's sold their morals and their support for NAMA in exchange for a new programme for government.

I'd be hopeful it'll appear within a year, and it won't be in some useless form, but I keep being disappointed by our politicians, so to be honest I'm basing this more on a belief of what should be done, rather than a great hope in them doing it.

I presume the estate agents oppose it:mad:
google throws up lots of info for the uk. I don't see why these stats shouldn't be public knowledge. Dirty business.

Treehouse72

quozl wrote: »

PlanetX, the government has committed to publishing a sales price database, just like developed countries do

Will have to see if it actually appears, as they've been promising it since the green's sold their morals and their support for NAMA in exchange for a new programme for government.

I'd be hopeful it'll appear within a year, and it won't be in some useless form, but I keep being disappointed by our politicians, so to be honest I'm basing this more on a belief of what should be done, rather than a great hope in them doing it.

To be honest I don't think they can avoid introducing it at this point. After all, if they wanted to keep putting it off, why did they bother even announcing it a couple of months ago? I just think they wouldn't have bothered if they knew they were going to flip-flop on it a few months later. And as far as I know there is already preparatory work happening on it.

No, I actually think this is going to happen and I think it's going to have a massive effect on the market....surely the very first impulse most prospective buyers will have will be to hold off and watch the index for a month or two to see what's happening to the area they want to buy in. When they do that they'll see falling prices and that will become a snowball of price depression.

Mr. Loverman

Don't believe anything an EA says. For a while now they've been grossly exaggerating the price drops to make people think we're at the bottom.

You have to always ask yourself: who is this information coming from, and do they have an agenda?

EKRIUQ

planetX wrote: »

I presume the estate agents oppose it:mad:

No they will love it more, they can see what things are selling for too.

johndaman66

quozl wrote: »

PlanetX, the government has committed to publishing a sales price database, just like developed countries do

When is this register expected to come into existance out of curiosity I wonder or has a date being put out there?

Treehouse72

johndaman66 wrote: »

When is this register expected to come into existance out of curiosity I wonder or has a date being put out there?

Apparantly around the turn of the year:

A long-awaited property price database is expected to be up and running once legislation is enacted later this year, and will include the sale prices of individual properties rather than average house prices in an area, the Department of Justice has confirmed.

The register, which is seen as a key factor in providing greater transparency in the property market, may also be backdated to include prices previously achieved.


A spokeswoman for the Department of Justice, which is overseeing the establishment of the database, told the Sunday Tribune that it would "at the outset at least" cover only residential property.


While the exact details of how the database will operate are currently being worked out, she said it could be published on a weekly basis.

...more

http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2010/aug/22/individual-houses-to-be-listed-in-property-price-d/

TheCityManager

We recently got sale agreed on house in Lucan..

Asked 295.... first offer was 285 .. we grabbed it..:D

4 bed semi in nice area..three years ago probably worth 400 tops...so not really that much of a fall...

No going renting till at least next summer and maybe summer after

Dymo

TheCityManager wrote: »

We recently got sale agreed on house in Lucan..

Asked 295.... first offer was 285 .. we grabbed it..:D

Lucky the buyer didn't ask for advice here you would only of being offered €125,00:D

TheCityManager

Dymo wrote: »

Lucky the buyer didn't ask for advice here you would only of being offered €125,00:D

Tis true :rolleyes:

Treehouse72

lol. You'd swear from the way some people go on that the bears on this forum are predicting further house price falls and general armageddon in the market just for the craic, or are coming to that conclusion just by pulling numbers out of their ass.

This comes down to the fact that most people have no reasonable metric by which to assess house prices, so assume everyone is just making generalised guesses at what's happening. Sticking their finger in the air and just shooting their mouth off.

Anyway, it's all moot. Things will fall as logic and economics dictate they should. And as such, down, down, down is where we're going.

RATM

Wow if its true then a 9% drop in less than six months is a freefall situation. Someone who bought that house for 300k is now 27,000 in negative equity. That's not far off the annual industrial wage gone into negative equity in less than 6 months. If this crash continues apace there might be a huge overshoot :eek:

Treehouse72

RATM wrote: »

Wow if its true then a 9% drop in less than six months is a freefall situation. Someone who bought that house for 300k is now 27,000 in negative equity. That's not far off the annual industrial wage gone into negative equity in less than 6 months. If this crash continues apace there might be a huge overshoot :eek:

And yet people who are spending €12,000 per annum on rent still think it's dead money.

johndaman66

RATM wrote: »

Wow if its true then a 9% drop in less than six months is a freefall situation. Someone who bought that house for 300k is now 27,000 in negative equity.

Just to pull you up on that one as Im not sure if you understand fully what negative equity is or if you do you missed making an important stipulation in your post. In the example you give the person would only be in negative equity by 27k if they borrowed 300k exactly to fund the house purchase (and have not yet paid back any of the principle if we must be pedantic about it!...or basically still owe 300k exactly)

If for example they only borrowed 250k and put down their own deposit of 50k on the house they would not be in negative equity. On the other hand they are running at a loss of 27k on paper whatever way you look at it.

Sorry if I come across as condescending but thats not my intention...Its just I think there is some confusion out there as to how negative equity is determined. My own explanation is perhaps even a bit simplistic as if for example the asset value stayed the same but the loan balance increases because loan repayments are less that the interest accruing up then a negative equity situation may also arise.


If your bored enough a more in depth explanation is provided in below link!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_equity

Comordha

Treehouse72 wrote: »

And yet people who are spending €12,000 per annum on rent still think it's dead money.

Exactly, this is what it's all about.

I'm so glad all these idiots who inflated prices to ruin and rob other members of their own society are now being punished.

Our ownership mentality needs to change, otherwise this will all happen again.

Now, time to find me a regular 1 bed apartment valued at €150k in a nice area that I'll buy for €120k and have paid off in 10 years.

ZYX

Comordha wrote: »

Exactly, this is what it's all about.

I'm so glad all these idiots who inflated prices to ruin and rob other members of their own society are now being punished.

Our ownership mentality needs to change, otherwise this will all happen again.

Now, time to find me a regular 1 bed apartment valued at €150k in a nice area that I'll buy for €120k and have paid off in 10 years.

Do you really want to live in a 1 bed apartment for the next 10 years? If not, then the rest of your post applies to you as much as anyone else.

rightwingdub

I'm looking forward to the day when 2 bedroom partments go for less than €100k in Dublin, I saw an ad in the Sunday Business post last sunday advertising for one bedrrom apartments for €225k reduced from €355k in Cabinteely Ithink, the same ad had 2 bedroom apartments reduced to €255k from €435k and three bedroom apartments reduced from €500k down to €300k, if anyone buys a one bedroom apartment for €225k then they need to see a shrink.