How Bout Dem Bears?

Realt Dearg Sec

mcgann4 wrote: »

Happy to be wrong on my assessment.guess it prolongs the aganony re the playoffs,should have expected that!

Happy to be wrong too but are we wrong? The offense was good and the defense was bad, all as expected. I'd fancy us against the browns though. But yeah this has been the tastiest humble pie ever.

kennyb3

mcgann4 wrote: »

Happy to be wrong on my assessment.guess it prolongs the aganony re the playoffs,should have expected that!

Sorry that was me - using wifes phone and thought i was on my own account. I predicted us to be beat but happy to be wrong when we put up 45 points!

SameOleJay

Firstly, how good is it to actually relax and enjoy a game with every play not having you on the brink?

The O is outstanding. Sign the two boys up, throw Bush off a bridge and draft a centre. McCown was lighting cigars in the pocket all night.

The D are giving their all but each area is badly lacking in talent. I think Lance can make a big difference. We won't win the last 3 but 9-7 is doable and would constitute a successful start to the tenure. Obviously an opportunity lost with Rodgers down but so be it.

Oat23

McCown was great, but the Cowboys D is terrible. I still think letting Cutler walk would be a huge mistake. McCown will be 35 when training camp comes.

Itssoeasy

I feel asleep JUST as the second half was starting so I've waited all day to see the final result. Ye fecking beauties. Get in. A very happy eagles fan here.

Realt Dearg Sec

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I feel asleep JUST as the second half was starting so I've waited all day to see the final result. Ye fecking beauties. Get in. A very happy eagles fan here.

Well our game has been flexed to the late game for the week after next, the general consensus seems to be that we're both playing some exciting offense for neutrals and have everything at stake against one another (depending for us on a lot of variables), so should be a good game.

For us, any sign of Briggs coming back? We were still catastrophic against the run last night, I think he would make a massive difference.

I know we're unlikely to win all the remaining games but we can only take it a game at a time. If we win on Sunday we'll top the division over night, then we can just sit back and hope for Detroit to implode. Which is a nice position as these things go. Probably still their division but still, nice to still have something better than a mathematical interest at this point.

aaronm13

Really enjoyed the game. Eurosport worked perfect on Sky. Thought McCown had a great game and what more can you say about Jeffery. Great to be still in with a shout and you couldn't call this division at all. Just when you think it's Detroits they go and lose. Should make for an exciting run in. Could be an epic last game though with winner takes all.

SameOleJay

Briggs is a big doubt again Sunday. Evaluated yesterday but not cleared. Whatever about this weekend, if he's not fit for Philly then Shady is in for a sure fire 200 yarder.

Gordon is obviously the big concern Sunday. Without Peanut we have noone who will cope so the pass rush is everything.

UnitedIrishman

Just looking at the Cutler contract situation and where you guys stand on it, what do you think is going to happen with Cutler or what would you like to happen? Will the franchise tag him or go in a different direction with McCown there as an able deputy?

Of course McCown on his own doesn't mean that the Bears could move away from having Cutler at QB but the fact he's going to make a nice dent in the cap whilst McCown has proved himself an able replacement (if in no way long term) - means there's an interesting option for the Bears head guys.

Realt Dearg Sec

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Just looking at the Cutler contract situation and where you guys stand on it, what do you think is going to happen with Cutler or what would you like to happen? Will the franchise tag him or go in a different direction with McCown there as an able deputy?

Of course McCown on his own doesn't mean that the Bears could move away from having Cutler at QB but the fact he's going to make a nice dent in the cap whilst McCown has proved himself an able replacement (if in no way long term) - means there's an interesting option for the Bears head guys.

I'd be disappointed if Cutler moved on. Trestman was brought in specifically to enable Cutler to reach his potential, which is worth remembering he was having the best season he's had with the bears before the injury. Mccown has been great, no doubt, but he isn't a franchise quarter back. The problem with franchise tagging Cutler is that it leaves us with no money to fix our crappy defense, which is very urgent. We have the offensive weapons to be winning now, so drafting a project QB doesn't appeal to me. I'd like to see Cutler on a contract but given the rumours of demand for him in Tennessee, I'd imagine the bears have little leverage over him and he could be pricey in terms of cap space.

TaosHum

Does Cutler's recent injury history have any impact on whether to offer him a new contract?

I like Cutler, but giving big money to QB's that aren't the most durable is risky.

kennyb3

TaosHum wrote: »

Does Cutler's recent injury history have any impact on whether to offer him a new contract?

I like Cutler, but giving big money to QB's that aren't the most durable is risky.

This would be my major concern, every year we start well, every year cutler gets injured - thankfully Josh has stepped up this year but that hasn't always been the case.

The $15m dollars could really help with getting 2 star free agency DL options, playing Josh next year and grooming a drafted QB.

Obviously the other option is tag him, go DL in 2 of the first three rounds of the draft (a CB) being the other.

I'd prob prefer the second option, but if he goes down again the following year it's bye bye time.

kennyb3

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

I'd be disappointed if Cutler moved on. Trestman was brought in specifically to enable Cutler to reach his potential, which is worth remembering he was having the best season he's had with the bears before the injury. Mccown has been great, no doubt, but he isn't a franchise quarter back. The problem with franchise tagging Cutler is that it leaves us with no money to fix our crappy defense, which is very urgent. We have the offensive weapons to be winning now, so drafting a project QB doesn't appeal to me. I'd like to see Cutler on a contract but given the rumours of demand for him in Tennessee, I'd imagine the bears have little leverage over him and he could be pricey in terms of cap space.

Our cap situation isn't actually that bad if you assume they'll cut Peppers (or at least cut his salary very significantly) and Melton doesn't need to be paid now, though i'd be in favour of keeping him on a cheap ($4m one year deal or $8m 2 year deal with no significant guaranteed money). They'll be freeing up a lot of cap room with other releases too (Bush 7 Weems as examples)

Here's a good thread by a brilliant poster to give an example of what we can do if we focus on defence. I obviously don't agree with some of the signings/picks but it gives a sample with real numbers.

Spongey1975

My belief is that it's a no brainer giving him a new contract. He looked great this year before he got injured and can really thrive in this new look offense. As for his contract, his cap hit this year was over 10 million whilst the franchise tag this year was 15 million. Somewhere in between would be the aim and that wouldnt break the bank for our salary cap.

The defense needs a lot of work. Peppers needs to be released (18 million salary cap hit next year although i think 8 million of it is dead money). Other big names this year that are on big contracts that are free agents next year are Melton (8 million), Tillman (8 million) and Jennings (5 million). Whilst i would like to see all 3 return i think they can be got for less.

Emery will earn his wage next off season, thats for sure

kennyb3

Spongey1975 wrote: »

My belief is that it's a no brainer giving him a new contract. He looked great this year before he got injured and can really thrive in this new look offense. As for his contract, his cap hit this year was over 10 million whilst the franchise tag this year was 15 million. Somewhere in between would be the aim and that wouldnt break the bank for our salary cap.

I think the bold bit is a massive exaggeration to be honest. He had 13 TD's but 8 interceptions and 3 fumbles. His arm is both his biggest strength and weakness - he forces it too much.

Look at his TD to Interceptions here since joining chicago, hardly inspiring.

McCown has 13TD's in one less game, but only one interception and one fumble.

I'm not saying McCown is the future or anything but I think it's a leap to say Jay was great, he turns over the ball way too much and even with all Trestmans coaching continued to do so this year. That's a huge concern for me.

padraig_f

I think it's a difficult decision for Emery, I hope they can work something out with Cutler, but there is going to be a price where the correct decision would be to let him walk. If he's looking for $18m+, you probably have to say no to that because you can get relatively good performance from McCown/rookie, and use the cap space to strengthen the team elsewhere.

Bill Barnwell wrote a good article before this season on the huge value of QBs on rookie contracts: The Gang of Four's Revolution

I think it’s an important one to read when considering the Cutler decision, because the 2011 CBA changed things pretty significantly.

And it's been borne out...the two top teams in the NFC this year are the Seahawks & 49ers. Both getting good performance from their QBs on cheap rookie contracts, and it leaves them plenty of cap-space to spend on the rest of the team (also the Panthers and Colts with Newton/Luck are solid playoff teams).

Meanwhile teams that paid big money to established QBs (Ryan/Falcons $21m, Stafford/Lions $17m, Romo/Cowboys $18m, Flacco/Ravens $20m, Schaub/Texans $15m, source) are all teams out of the playoffs or struggling to make them, partly because they're limited in what talent they can put around them.

But from Cutler's point of view, he's as good as those guys who got $18-20m, so you couldn't blame him for asking for similar money.

So that's where it's difficult. I can see arguments for each option, Cutler extension (if he took a discount), franchise tag & draft rookie QB, McCown & draft rookie QB. But if Cutler's looking to get paid $18m+, that he can probably get elsewhere, I think walking away is a valid option for the Bears.

Bottom line, I’d like to have Cutler at the right price. But he can probably get more money elsewhere, so it becomes a question of how much of a discount he wants to take (some incentive for him there with Trestman & Marshall/Jeffery/Forte), and how high the Bears are prepared to go.

Hard to put an exact figure on these things….roughly, I’d say $18m: too high, $12m: sign him up. $15m, in between, becomes more of a judgment call, dependent on other factors, like how much you like rookie QBs at the position you’ll be picking.

UnitedIrishman

Interesting views. Personally I think there's going to be a pretty big divide in what Cutler and his guys think he is worth and what the Bears are willing to give.

This is on the basis of the Bears having options now so they can use that as leverage but equally Cutler will be using the threat of joining the Titans or whoever as his leverage so there'll be a fairly sizeable difference of opinion.

Trestman will probably fight to keep him and non-exclusive tag him next year to see how he performs and if he stays fit.

SameOleJay

I think losing Jay should be a last resort.

I assume his agent will use Stafford as a recent, pertinent benchmark and work from there. But given his injury record, production levels and the success of his "journeyman" replacement he won't have a leg to stand on there. If the Titans are willing to throw 18 mill at him than that's it but they'd be beyond stupid to even dream of it.

Ideal solution is not to franchise in my view. Lose Peppers (you can't possibly keep both), sign McCown for 2 years with a decent raise and sign Jay for 5 years. Keep the guaranteed dollar to the first 3 so we can cut ties if it suits. 15 mill year at an absolute max.

Innish_Rebel

padraig_f wrote: »

Bottom line, I’d like to have Cutler at the right price. But he can probably get more money elsewhere, so it becomes a question of how much of a discount he wants to take (some incentive for him there with Trestman & Marshall/Jeffery/Forte), and how high the Bears are prepared to go.

I had almost written that word for word. I would be thinking he can get more money elsewhere but by taking less it will give him two things.
1. the above mentioned team on offense - I think any QB would be salivating at that array of talent to have on offense
2. Allowing the team to strengthen the area that is now holding them back - defense - with the additional money saved...

kennyb3

SameOleJay wrote: »

I think losing Jay should be a last resort.

I assume his agent will use Stafford as a recent, pertinent benchmark and work from there. But given his injury record, production levels and the success of his "journeyman" replacement he won't have a leg to stand on there. If the Titans are willing to throw 18 mill at him than that's it but they'd be beyond stupid to even dream of it.

Ideal solution is not to franchise in my view. Lose Peppers (you can't possibly keep both), sign McCown for 2 years with a decent raise and sign Jay for 5 years. Keep the guaranteed dollar to the first 3 so we can cut ties if it suits. 15 mill year at an absolute max.

I really don't want to sign him for 5 yrs unless all the guaranteed money is front loaded as you suggest - if he is constantly getting injured now, as he ages his body will break down even more. He doesn't make it past 3 yrs imho - we'll have Jeffrey coming off his rookie contract looking to be paid and Long after (both look like they'll be wanted around for a long time)

Also if we re-sign Cutler can we really afford to pay McCown any sort of money without again hitting the defence.

Honestly the more I think about it the more I want Josh next year, draft a QB high and go with proven DL options with the extra money (the draft is hit and miss and can often take a couple of years for players to have an impact - Bostic has looked lost this year - do we really want similar with a DT, DE and CB - we need proven starters). I'm not sure Josh will continue to play at such a high level but I'm pretty certain he'll turn the ball over less, and that we can put points on the board with this Trestcoast offence and I really don't think we can go on with this defense - we should have walked into the playoffs this year with no Arod around but didn't.

We really could put together a proper defense with the extra money, but then again we only need a serviceable one with our offence at present.

I kind of can't believe I'm saying that as the NFL is so much about QB's but it's just the nagging injury and interception doubts (though mainly the injury concerns). Less of both of them and I'd be saying give the man $18m per year.

Realistically you tag him and assess next year - see can he stay healthy & improve. Why sign him up prematurely? That's what I expect will happen.

Spongey1975

kennyb3 wrote: »

Honestly the more I think about it the more I want Josh next year, draft a QB high and go with proven DL options with the extra money (the draft is hit and miss and can often take a couple of years for players to have an impact - Bostic has looked lost this year - do we really want similar with a DT, DE and CB - we need proven starters).

The problem i see with the draft a QB high approach is it can be a bit of a lottery. You have to hit on a good QB instead of a Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weedon, EJ Manuel (who all were drafted relatively high). Looks like we will have a mid round first rounder so dependant on the draft class if could be a stretch to find a good one. I havent paid much attention to the college scene this year so dont know the standard of the QBs coming out except for Bridgewater

kennyb3

Spongey1975 wrote: »

The problem i see with the draft a QB high approach is it can be a bit of a lottery. You have to hit on a good QB instead of a Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weedon, EJ Manuel (who all were drafted relatively high). Looks like we will have a mid round first rounder so dependant on the draft class if could be a stretch to find a good one. I havent paid much attention to the college scene this year so dont know the standard of the QBs coming out except for Bridgewater

It's a deep draft, and the idea most definitely would be to groom them (Trestman should be perfect for this) rather than dropping them in it right away. Of course there is no guarantee it 100% works out but we have to trust Emery & Trestman.

Realt Dearg Sec

So Cutler is cleared to play. Thoughts? I'm happy anyway, it's the right thing to do and regardless of the yardage stats, Cutler has a better record in games where he took most snaps, and he has played against stronger defenses while doing so.

No brainer for me.

aaronm13

McCown for me. He's done nothing wrong and so many things right in Cutlers absence. Give Cutler as much time to fully recover and maybe and I mean just maybe if its a must win, winner takes all against Green Bay fully fit Jay could be handy to call on if the pressure get to much for McCown.

SantryRed

Crazy decision to start Cutler. Doesn't make sense at all. They pretty much have the same stats, with McCown playing one game left, but has 7 less INTs.

Realt Dearg Sec

SantryRed wrote: »

Crazy decision to start Cutler. Doesn't make sense at all. They pretty much have the same stats, with McCown playing one game left, but has 7 less INTs.

Same stats except for not as good a win loss ratio against poorer opposition. That would ultimately be my criteria. Regarding playing green bay, if Cutler is rusty I'd rather see him play a couple times before then. Also as a team we have to know where we stand with Cutler in a contract year. We can't do that with mccown. He's been good but he's still a back up. I really don't see it, I think we are better off with Cutler, too much is being judged on a game against the worst cowboys defense I've seen. If we lost that this conversation wouldn't be happening.

kennyb3

Stats or whatever (and I was the one who posted the stats) - McCown is on fire and Cutler is rusty - simple as that really. I'd be more happy with decision if Cutler had a week and half/2 weeks practice.

From what I understand he's had a few days in what about 6 weeks since the first groin injury?

It's the lack of practice that's particularly the issue. And I wouldn't be focuses on GB, we have to win the games in front of us and sure Cutty has a shocking record v GB anyway.

If he starts slow against the Browns and get beat, I won't be happy.

I don't think the last 3 games will tell us a huge amount about cutler anyway, as he hasn't practices - therefore hasn't been coached, and has excuses. It's pretty obvious they'll tag him for next year anyway and take a proper look then.

It's a no win decision for Trestman anyway.

kennyb3

This gives a good idea of how nuts we could go if we let cutler and peppers walk, it allows us draft a QB in the 1st round and still have a very good one in josh - who i think will continue to thrive in such a qb friendly system. The DL is sick - and the DB's hugely upgraded.

Just wanted to post it as food for thought, i don't see it happening. But i'll say again when we tag Cutler we need a really good free agency and draft to get the D up to scratch - particularly FA as you can't rely on first year starters.

SameOleJay

Briggs out.

padraig_f

kennyb3 wrote: »

This gives a good idea of how nuts we could go if we let cutler and peppers walk, it allows us draft a QB in the 1st round and still have a very good one in josh - who i think will continue to thrive in such a qb friendly system. The DL is sick - and the DB's hugely upgraded.

Just wanted to post it as food for thought, i don't see it happening. But i'll say again when we tag Cutler we need a really good free agency and draft to get the D up to scratch - particularly FA as you can't rely on first year starters.

I think it's a valid option, and I think there are benefits to spreading the talent around, rather than having such a significant part of the cap in one player. You look at the Packers, Rodgers gets injured for a few games and their season goes down the tubes.

Even the Broncos with Manning, I was watching them last night, their defense isn't great. Manning has a slightly off night and they're beaten at home by the Chargers.

Meanwhile the Seahawks and 49ers have had significant injury problems, guys being suspended, going into rehab etc. and they're both still Super Bowl contenders.

Top 10 favourites for the Super Bowl this year, and their QB salary:

Seahawks 11/4 - Wilson      $1m
Broncos 3/1   - Manning     $19m
Saints 8/1    - Brees       $20m
49ers 9/1     - Kaepernick  $1m
Patriots 10/1 - Brady       $12m
Bengals 14/1  - Dalton      $1m
Panthers 16/1 - Newton      $5m
Chiefs 25/1   - Smith       $9m
Eagles 25/1   - Foles       $0.5m
Colts 40/1    - Luck        $5m

Only 2 out of the 10 have QBs making more than $12m.