How Bout Dem Bears?

Guffy

Just got an offer for kadem cary in my dynasty league... anyone able to shed light on this? I assumed his best case is as back up to langford next season... at the very best

Realt Dearg Sec

gufc21 wrote: »

Just got an offer for kadem cary in my dynasty league... anyone able to shed light on this? I assumed his best case is as back up to langford next season... at the very best

I'd say that's fairly likely but at the same time I didn't think he looked too bad Monday when he was in. As long as forte is out he'll probably get about thirty per cent of the snaps, but no, not someone I think we'll be seeing a huge amount of

SameOleJay

Must.Read.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2015/film-room-pernell-mcphee

kennyb3

Re-watched the first half last night. 3 thoughts:

- Love me some Adrian Amos - after nearly killing Zenner a few weeks ago, he tried to do the same to Danny Woodhead - some hit. He also made a brutal tackle on a receiver over on the sideline. The guy is just mean.

- The pass rush McPhee aside is fairly limited - Willie Young got some pressure too but there is no interior pressure from the NT or DE's. Jenkins can get some push from time to time. It's rare you'll get this from a rookie DE/DT in a 3-4 so this has to be a huge FA priority. I'd prefer Malik Jackson than going all in on Wilkerson.

- The Chargers also ran the ball far too easily - they double teamed Goldman and he got pushed around. Probably his worst game (well fist half) to date. That Matt Unrein guy is plain terrible. Also our ILB's just can't make tackles for losses - even when it looks like we get a 'stop' its after a 3/4 yard game. Anderson is good sideline to sideline and tackling in space but he nor Jones can seem to disguise pressure or beat blockers. Jones 'blew up a play' and it was still like a 3 yard gain. This has been a problem all season. We need to be looking at Demario Davis if he makes it that far or using a 1st or 2nd on an ILB (ILB's tend be be able to highly contribute early as rookies, so not a FA necessity).

padraig_f

kennyb3 wrote: »

Re-watched the first half last night.

Good lord, I found it tough enough viewing the first time

- The pass rush McPhee aside is fairly limited

Yeah, need someone else to step up, teams are realising now they can double McPhee and no-one else is likely to do anything.

Are people rooting for a win this week? I was against the Vikings, and not against the Chargers (so disappointed both times). Not sure if I am, sometimes I don't know til the game is on.

It may not matter, the bookies have the Bears 7.5 point underdogs.

You have to give credit to the o-line coach....I'll look up his name because I don't know it....Dave Magazu, and Gase and Cutler, they've really worked wonders with this patchwork offensive line. However against the Rams d-line this week, I fear it will be too much.

I've seen Todd Gurley on the highlights and heard people raving about him, but haven't watched him live yet, so interested to see that.

kennyb3

They've done a great job putting an Oline together given the players. However I feel they'll be smashed to pieces. Ducasse against Donald & Brokers? Dear god they'll feast on him. I can see a lot of jumbo packages.

Gurley has been brilliant when you consider the terrible Oline he has been running behind. If it was half decent his numbers would be amazing.

Foles has gone rapidly downhill the last few weeks so hopefully that remains the case.

I can't see a win, just can't. Unless our Dline has a really strong outing it could get ugly. If they can run the ball and our dline don't win then we'll be losing on both lines and get well beaten.

SameOleJay

With Ferguson on IR and Ratliff released we’re left in a spot where guys are just getting way too many snaps on the line. Goldman et al could get abused down the stretch and with our inside linebackers they won’t get much support inside.

Except in exceptional cases I never want the team to lose. Last year it made sense when it was clear Trest’s days were numbered. Looking at the footage post-game last week no-one can tell me winning is a bad thing for this team. That said a loss looks inevitable this week. There are just too many mismatches all over.

SameOleJay

Following on from Kenny’s point I see pff have Amos 5th in their DROY rankings.

It seems generous but he’s been very encouraging

Realt Dearg Sec

SameOleJay wrote: »

Must.Read.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2015/film-room-pernell-mcphee

That's a great read alright. Our best FA move in years, probably a smarter move than Marshall.

padraig_f

kennyb3 wrote: »

They've done a great job putting an Oline together given the players. However I feel they'll be smashed to pieces. Ducasse against Donald & Brokers? Dear god they'll feast on him. I can see a lot of jumbo packages.

Yeah, I agree, scheming will only get you so far.

SameOleJay wrote: »

Except in exceptional cases I never want the team to lose. Last year it made sense when it was clear Trest’s days were numbered. Looking at the footage post-game last week no-one can tell me winning is a bad thing for this team. That said a loss looks inevitable this week. There are just too many mismatches all over.

Yeah I don't feel great about it. Mostly I'm rooting for good performances, but when the game can go either way in the 4th quarter, and it doesn't really matter except to get a better draft pick, I'll sometimes root for the loss.

kennyb3

Whether we win or lose from here this is a different team to the one humiliated the last time we played in St. Louis

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kennyb3 wrote: »

Whether we win or lose from here this is a different team to the one humiliated the last time we played in St. Louis

We're really not a bad team at all are we? Another Langford td too. If we hold on to win this it would be our first win against a good team.

Oat23

Not even disappointed we are winning this. Nobody gave us a chance which makes it sweet.

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Oat23 wrote: »

Not even disappointed we are winning this. Nobody gave us a chance which makes it sweet.

Yeah, again, it's a win for all the right reasons. I didn't give us a chance either, really didn't see it. This is a good team we've made look awful.

Also green bay are losing. Which is always a good day.

padraig_f

Dominant win, just like we called it

Hope the Lions can hold on, missed 2 extra points.

Realt Dearg Sec

Well badabing, maybe your optimism wasn't so misguided after all

Oat23

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/666019758756782080

padraig_f

Oat23 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/666019758756782080

That was a beautiful play for Langford's big receiving gain & touchdown, with the blitz in Cutler's face. The play-calling from Gase & execution from Cutler was something else in this game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p315WTL4cw

Badabing

Happy out lads! Didn't see the game but followed it. Loving Jay and loving Adam Gase. Packers losing always helps. Next 2 games will tell a lot.

kennyb3

I's great to be able to be positive for once. I'm not just negative for the sake of it!:)

I really really rate this Rams D, so to put up 37 points is unreal. I'm not sure if anyone noticed but I've said nothing much on cutler this season as I fully expected he'd revert to type - in fact I had last night pencilled in as a 2/3 pick performance that would bring it all down to earth - instead he has a 151 QBR (highest of his career) with 3TD's /0 INT's. Massive credit to Gase and to Cutler himself - getting to the line early seems to be helping him more than anything. That and throwing the ball away are the two major differences.

The coaching staff is just unbelievable - we've no more talent than last time we played here and that was a pure humiliation - we'd a bunch of no names run for huge numbers against us. I expected Foles to be bad but stopping Gurley (first drive aside) was a huge surprise.

Last year was horrrible, horrible, horrible as a fan this year just seems enjoyable - it's like a freebie - no expectations, just sit back and enjoy and try take the positives from it.

Jon Gruden really hit the nail on the head when he said Fox loves working with development players - getting capable starters from Amos, Callahan, Anderson, Charles Leno and even McClellin. That's the biggest positive of this season - forget the results it's that we now have a young core to move forward with.

The attitude is just completely different - never ceases to amaze me how much difference a staff can make.

To put last night in perspective the Rams were 2/7 to win, we beat them by 24 points away from home. McPhee was out and Jeffrey was clearly limited. We are not magically a very good team but it was nice to put it all together and get a decent win and breed confidence for the future.

We are a lot, lot further down the road than I expected at this stage. Cutler is making him being around next year a certainty and then it's up to him to make that last.

Langfords not bad is he? Love watching him play. Love that break away speed.

SameOleJay

Absolutely enormous performance yesterday. Every unit brought the goods. Every unit looked well drilled (even the special teams coverage!) I fyou didn’t enjoy that I think you’re crazy. Pats, Packers, Pittsburgh… I don’t care what offense were playing yesterday, none would have done a better job than Gase and co. When McPhee was called out I looked at the defensive personnel and saw a CFL team. Nothing more needs to be said about Fangio at this stage.

Some random thoughts.

-Offensive line played very well. I liked how we loaded up in blocking with the TEs. Trusting the wide-outs and backs to get separation. Nothing too clever, just smart coaching.
-Jay played the blitz packages like a boss, rendering Donald, Quinn et all far less effective.
- Langford was obviously great but Carey impressed me hugely too.
-Secondary were outstanding. Special mention for Fuller who has recovered from a hideous start. There’s definitely a player there
-Young and Houston are playing for their future and are finally showing up. Young is hard not to root for.
-Shea looks a competent player. No greater a testament can you give a DC.
-Mariani was awful but the rest of the STs was promising. POD especially is impressing me.

A top 5 pick is totally out of the question so everyone just needs to enjoy watching a very well coached team. A play-off push is out of reach but I’m fully on board for the rest of the season.

Badabing

Manning maybe not playing next week and Fox will know exactly what do to with Osweiler. Game is on SKY at 6 can't wait.

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Badabing wrote: »

Manning maybe not playing next week and Fox will know exactly what do to with Osweiler. Game is on SKY at 6 can't wait.

Yeah that'll be an interesting game for a lot of reasons. They suddenly look very vulnerable (although they'll be on the war path now). One thing for sure, Fox isn't going to want to lose to them one little bit, and the mockery Cutler has taken from their fans over the years, I can see those two guys being very teed up for this one. Their D is, of course, yet another step up on anything we've faced this year, so anything resembling a good performance on offence and I'd be happy. But their O is faltering badly. I know we'll be against a different QB, but if Kansas can cause them that much trouble, we should be setting the bar of expectations very high for our D this week.

padraig_f

kennyb3 wrote: »

I's great to be able to be positive for once. I'm not just negative for the sake of it!:)

I won't even tease you for watching the game a 2nd time this week. I wouldn't mind doing it myself if I get time, just to watch the offensive play-calls. What a difference a co-ordinator makes. I'd virtually given up on Jay last season, and it's night-and-day this season.

His reading of situations and decision-making seems so much better, he has virtually no interceptions this season of the 'bad Jay' variety, where he's made a bad decision to throw the ball. The only ones have been the odd off-target ones, or on the receiver, which you can live with.

I hope we can hold onto Gase at the end of this season. I think it would be a bit in his interest to stay a bit longer, because he could achieve something really good with Cutler and the offensive talent (get Kevin White back opposite Jeffery, fix up the offensive line).

kennyb3

Deforest Buckner - that's a player to watch for us draft wise.

kennyb3

We are somehow 4th in passing yard given up - with only Denver, Seattle and the Titans ahead of us.

padraig_f

kennyb3 wrote: »

We are somehow 4th in passing yard given up - with only Denver, Seattle and the Titans ahead of us.

Total yards can be a misleading stat when you play a clock-eating offensive style like the Bears do. Pace-independent stats like yards-per-pass-allowed and yards-per-rush-allowed are better:

Yards-per-pass-allowed (13th):
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/position/defense

Yards-per-rush-allowed (27th):
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/sort/yardsPerRushAttempt/position/defense

Didn't think the run-defense was quite that low, but pass-defense is probably more important anyway.


I was listening to the Intentional Grounding podcast yesterday, they had a good bit at the start covering Shea McLellin and Zach Miller at the Rams post-game podium:
http://www.podcastchart.com/podcasts/intentional-grounding-from-wgn-radio-720

Would make you root for them a bit more.

kennyb3

The pass stats are good whatever way you look at them (be it total yards, yards per attempt etc) - no way did I expect this D to be top half in that respect. Especially given they faced pass happy offenses like GB, the Cards, Oakland and the Lions.

I guess my point is and was given the lack of pass rush and lack of CB talent they are producing miracles.

The rushing stats aren't great at all but the main thing is they aren't giving up rushing TD's (1 in last 7 games) and the signs are that it's coming together slowly in terms of making tackles in/around the line of scrimmage.

SameOleJay

PFF now have McPhee top of their pass rushing stats, ahead of Miller. The article I posted before also shed light on his value against the run. Just an incredible success so far. We’re talking about a guy who was seeing less snaps than Courtney Upshaw last year leading a decent defence. A real win for the scouting department.

Has anyone noticed David Bass making plays for the Titans this year? Was surprised to see it the last couple weeks… had assumed he’d be camp fodder at this stage. Also, Vic Beasley, the obvious alternative to White, has been pretty underwhelming too which is small comfort. In a dismal pass rushing class he doesn’t even rate top as a pass-rusher. In fact he’s just a percent and a half ahead of our man Eddie Goldman. Again, pff the source.

SameOleJay

BTW to whoever asked, Bears have till Tuesday to decide on White. After that he’s shut down for the season if they don’t re-instate him.

Again, be amazed if we saw him this year.

padraig_f

kennyb3 wrote: »

The pass stats are good whatever way you look at them (be it total yards, yards per attempt etc) - no way did I expect this D to be top half in that respect. Especially given they faced pass happy offenses like GB, the Cards, Oakland and the Lions.

I guess my point is and was given the lack of pass rush and lack of CB talent they are producing miracles.

The rushing stats aren't great at all but the main thing is they aren't giving up rushing TD's (1 in last 7 games) and the signs are that it's coming together slowly in terms of making tackles in/around the line of scrimmage.

Yeah, yards-per-pass-attempt is still incomplete because it doesn't account for strength of schedule. It also doesn't account sufficiently for improvement during the season. The pass-defense is clearly better now than it was in the first few weeks, but those early weeks are still being averaged in to the yards-per-pass-attempt total. So in real terms, we're likely above the #13 ranking at this point (wouldn't go as far as to say #4 though).

Similarly with the run-defense, having had it's best outing against Gurley last weekend. The eye-test says it's better than #27.

kennyb3

Yeah the old how to lie with statistics applies here. The rush defence is better by the eye test and the passing worse by eye test for me anyway.

Still giving where we came from, a new system and the schedule I'm very very pleasantly surprised.

From passing side very encouraging to see fuller slowly learning to play man and how to trail in coverage. He's still struggling trailing but looks good with the play in front of him. Amos not giving up any big plays coverage wise has been great. Porter has been a huge surprise I called him a bum and was totally wrong.

Anyway better not jinx it and the picture changes week to week - there will be dips, bad performances and learning curves - but the direction overall is very positive.

kennyb3

SameOleJay wrote: »

Has anyone noticed David Bass making plays for the Titans this year? Was surprised to see it the last couple weeks… had assumed he’d be camp fodder at this stage. Also, Vic Beasley, the obvious alternative to White, has been pretty underwhelming too which is small comfort. In a dismal pass rushing class he doesn’t even rate top as a pass-rusher. In fact he’s just a percent and a half ahead of our man Eddie Goldman. Again, pff the source.

Bass to me has and always be a player that flashes but lacks consistency. He makes one proper play a game and gets you excited but the rest of the time he looks bad. He'll always find a roster in the NFL, as you see from watching things like hard knocks, you see they love players who 'flash' - coaches are going to constantly think one day he can put it all together - and maybe he even will.

Beasley has almost looked like McClellin his first year - he uses speed off the edge to get around the OT and if he doesn't he's stoned - no counter moves. He also uses the spin move. They are his only two moves. Doesn't seem to know how to use his hands at all. I'm surprised how small he actually looks on the field given his measurables - height and his muscle mass. He basically looks out of position at DE in quinns defence.

padraig_f

Nice analysis of the Gase's offensive design against the Rams:

The Bears have something most NFL teams don't: A game plan that makes sense

I think one thing he does very well is adapt. Adapt to his own team's weak-points...offensive line, getting the ball out quick....maybe making it easier on Cutler's decision-making, giving him multiple options.

And adapting to the other team's weaknesses, exploiting the soft cover-2 type shell the Rams were playing. Maybe sounds simple, but I think is easier said than done.

I love that roll-out on the 4th-and-1, how many OC's just pound it up the middle there? (and then to balance later on, they did run it up the middle)

Something else I noticed watching the Zach Miller TD back, he is fast. I don't think every tight-end is getting away like that.

I was trying to see who got the cut-block on the Langford TD, was that Slauson, 68? (watched it again...yeah, it was). Nice part of the play.

poldebruin

Really looking forward to the game this Sunday. The Bears are obviously on a bit of a streak, pulling themselves back into playoff contention, and we will finally get to see what many had been calling for - Osweiler replacing Manning for Denver.

There are so many facets to make the game worth watching - Fox and Gase facing their old team, not to mention this is the first time Cutler has played Denver in the regular season since he left. The Bears offence looks pretty potent, even without Forte (and White), and it will be interesting to see how they stack up against a very good D. And to top it all off, the QB that Denver drafted and groomed is going to be going up against a defense that has surprised everyone this year with their level of play. It really will be a litmus test for these two teams, depending on the result, one team might exit on a 3 game winning streak, while Denver would be looking at 3 straight losses.

kennyb3

Jeffrey limited the past two days, without him I can only see a loss, assuming their QB plays to an even average level. Osweiler's performance is the great unknown.

We've gone from being horrifically underrated in media eyes, with talk of a #1 pick, to now overrated after winning 2 games on the trot and hammering the Rams.

The Rams result looks like one of those abberation scorlines (note scorline not result) that the Nfl often throws up and we are being overrated on it.

poldebruin

kennyb3 wrote: »

Jeffrey limited the past two days, without him I can only see a loss, assuming their QB plays to an even average level. Osweiler's performance is the great unknown.

We've gone from being horrifically underrated in media eyes, with talk of a #1 pick, to now overrated after winning 2 games on the trot and hammering the Rams.

The Rams result looks like one of those abberation scorlines (note scorline not result) that the Nfl often throws up and we are being overrated on it.

Agreed, that's why the game holds so much importance, we will get a good idea of where each team stands going into the final 6 weeks. Other than Green Bay, Denver have been squeaking by in their victories so far, while the Bears have been involved in a lot of close wins and losses.

I also agree that if Osweiler can give Denver, even a mid level NFL QB performance, we should be in contention to win the game. It's a big "if" though!

kennyb3

Should be a great game anyway! Really looking forward to watching this followed by Minny & GB straight after.

kennyb3

Should also be the first real cold game of the season at home, snow forecast for Saturday but just cold on sunday.

Badabing

Tough game to call which in itself a few weeks ago is saying a lot, i think we'll win by at least 7. Cutler is in the zone and Fangio god bless him has the D performing miracles.

Realt Dearg Sec

Badabing wrote: »

Tough game to call which in itself a few weeks ago is saying a lot, i think we'll win by at least 7. Cutler is in the zone and Fangio god bless him has the D performing miracles.

Well...You were right about the rams. I think we're being overrated by the way that people judge this league on what people have done lately. This is the best D we will face all year. I definitely don't see us getting the kind of points on the board we did last week. Definitely agree about fangio though.

I dunno. I'm not optimistic. If we beat these hoors though, it would be the most excited I've been about a packers game since 2011.

padraig_f

Jeez, Jeffery out. Assuming he played, I thought the game was 50-50, that makes the Bears slight underdogs I think. I still give them a decent chance, because I just think it's very hard for a guy like Osweiler to come in mid-season and perform with so little experience. Also the Broncos' running game hasn't been good, so you can't expect them to protect him that way.

Another big test for the offense this week....probably a better defense again than last week. You can see there being a lot of punting on both sides.

Vikings-Packers will be very interesting later on too. Big legitimacy test for the Vikings, and a steadying-the-ship test for the Packers. The bookies have this one 50-50.

kennyb3

Need to franchise Jeffrey. He was basically out last week (played as a decoy) so has played 4 games and even in the first he was limited and played low snaps. Needs to prove next year he can stay on the field. No way you hand 11m a year for a guy to play 7-10 games.

SameOleJay

A real missed opportunity. Alshon's loss just killed us I'm afraid. Credit to the Denver D which is exceptional though.

So let down on D. Kubiak totally out-coached Fangio. Run D has been awful and the predictably safe passing game from a first time starter we had no answer for.

Shame.

kennyb3

SameOleJay wrote: »

So let down on D. Kubiak totally out-coached Fangio. Run D has been awful and the predictably safe passing game from a first time starter we had no answer for.

Shame.

I think this is incredibly harsh - they punted 7 times! Run D wasn't great, nor was the pass D when you look at the stats but they more gave up chunks then got off the field. 5 sacks shows that too.

They conceded 17 points. If only they could stop giving up TD's on the first drives.

It's way more on the O, Osweiler threw 2 TD's while Cutler threw none - despite having all day at times thanks to brilliant oline play. Credit to their secondary also. Our oline was immense and we need to hang onto that coach even even if Gase goes.

We marched up and down the field just couldn't get the ball in for a TD. Cutler threw how many passes inside the 20?

It's not a case of blaming Cutler - just putting up 15 points won't win you many matches.

I thought we played and it was a great competitive game - a missed opportunity to win alright but it's great to see we aren't that far away from being good.

I knew they were going to run on the 2 pointer once they'd finally got in with a run before that. I'd say the Broncos knew well too.

SameOleJay

Couldn't believe how good the protection was and they didn't even have to overload on blockers. Ware was missing but the tackles, especially, were very encouraging. Couldn't believe how well Leno did on Miller before the strip sack.

The red-zone offence has cost them 3 games now. Bennett is being smothered and without Alshon and even Marshall Jay just can't get it done with anyone else. The 4th and goal was especially ambitious all things considered.

Like I said a real shame but encouraging signs anyway.

SameOleJay

Leno one of PFF's best 5 tackles this week. Amazing production from him.

It was a bad day for quite a few on D. Both ILBs were crap, be surprised if Jones was around next year in any capacity. D line struggled very badly. Porter stood up very well but it speaks to our depth that Porsinski is one injury away from starting in that secondary.

Clausen waived btw. Fox said there was interest in Fales so they pulled the trigger. Hard to be unhappy with that.

kennyb3

The ILBer is our single biggest issue (was pass rush but Willie young seems to be bringing pressure and Houston a bit too). Neither are particularly good against the run and both awful in coverage. They blow coverages regularly too.

Pff can be very odd at times they gave long a very poor score and Miller a great one but I didn't see it that way at all but will watch bits again later in week.

Same way cutler grades out better than osweiler yet the latter threw 2 tds, better completion numbers all despite more pressure. Are they penalising him for sacks or something?

Jolly Red Giant

kennyb3 wrote: »

Same way cutler grades out better than osweiler yet the latter threw 2 tds, better completion numbers all despite more pressure. Are they penalising him for sacks or something?

Cutler was actually lucky last night. Miller was repeatedly held by the Bears OLmen. Even on the play when he stripped the ball from Cutler's hand Miller had to break from a hold on his facemask by the LT.

poldebruin

I thought the Bears were unlucky yesterday. Give Cutler a healthy Jeffrey and I think they would have won the game (not to mention Royal and Forte also missing)

I always thought it would be a close game, glad Denver won, but really hope the Bears don't falter as a result. 6 games to go and if they can get healthy, I think they can surprise a few people if they can just drag themselves into the playoffs.